Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

If Tesla Insurance proves successful, they will have bought another group of Tesla-haters....insurance company workers. Tesla already has plenty of haters bound to lose from the disruption:

- Fossil fuel industry workers
- Gas station owners
- Car dealers
- Auto mechanics
- Auto parts manufacturers, distributors and retailers
- Car tuners and aftermarket parts suppliers
- Dash cam manufactures
- Taxi services (future)
- Truck Drivers (future)

And next, insurance providers.

The disruption is great, but it invites a lot of haters who are bound to lose their livelihoods.

The impact to existing insurance companies is less than to existing car companies. Insurance companies can continue to earn money from ICE cars for many years. The urgency is not there.

Car companies should be concerned that in 2 years their ICE cars may face demand issue.

 

[Aieukl378]

Without going into a detailed rebuttal...as you stated earlier there is only risk and no upside associated with Elon's desire to act like a teenager on Twitter. I mean, for example(one of so many) if you're say, T Rowe Price, are you going to hold billions worth of stock when the CEO has no problem retweeting a porn site? It just adds another layer of risk for T Rowe Price(I doubt their brand wants to be associated with porn sites). And the risk isn't just what he's tweeted so far...it's what crazy *sugar* he's going to tweet tomorrow...or the next day etc.

I disagree: There are both risks and upsides.

I think that the big question is for Institutional Investors: "Can you invest in the company knowing that the CEO is luring Millennials and Gen Z customers like a magnet with his communication style and an extremely fast paced decision making process? Negatives: Bad image with conservative investors/customers and more errors than your average enterprise. Positives: Future generations love spontaneity and being valued; quick error making drives companies to quick-error fixing if you they have right people and attitude." -> Their call.

Look...I'm an enormous Tesla/Elon fanboy...I own more TSLA than I should(averaged in at 200ish w/10 year timeline), have owned four Teslas and as soon as that Model S refresh hits, five, then the pick-up of course etc.

With that said I'm not delusional in regards to what has happened since the 420 tweet. As shareholders and Elon fanboys we need to be careful not to give hime a pass on bad behavior. I get it...it's funny for teens(which I think make up 25 million of his 26 million followers) who see their idol sort of acting like them, rebeling against authority(SEC), stupid memes etc. but damn, is that really important in the grand scheme of things? Isn't it more destructive than constructive? Isn't luring institutional investors back to TSLA more important?

 

[Krugerrand]

I

OMG yes exactly to your first paragraph. In regards to his using Twitter as "free advertising" if we took the stock price before the "420 tweet" ($354.98)and TSLA last share price($235.14) with a difference of $119.84 and calculated Elon's TSLA exposure and how much less he has now(and don't forget the 40 million in fines, etc. etc.)....that's some expensive "free advertising". Can anybody come up with the actual number?

The implication that the tweet cost that much in SP is disingenuous. A lot else happened between then and now. You’re also conveniently forgetting that the tweet itself caused the SP to actually climb a bit.

 

[Krugerrand]

But we ALL know Elon will not comply and will continue to push SECs buttons regarding his stupid Twitter usage. This is another reason institutional investors are bailing(they know there will be more SEC/Twitter drama ahead.) God it's just so f...ing ridiculous.

He will comply just as he has been since the original agreement. He will push buttons, but that’s not the same as non-compliance.

 

[TradingInvest]

Vision assisted assembly would be great, but if they haven't already implemented it on the existing robots at Fremont, I don't see them running it as an experiment in GF3.

For the 3, I expect Tesla to be risk adverse (plus Manual assembly is much lower capex than robots) and implement the following:
Direct copy of working/ in use robots and fixtures from Fremont.
Improved material flow system (line running along a lot of loading bays)
Hybrid GA line, working robots plus designed for human stations.
Same parts as current 3 (possibly cost down interior).

Given the changes needed to support robotic wiring, I think that will not happen till Y. They may hedge and go manual install to start on the first line with provisions for robots. Or Grohmann is already building/testing the install bots so there will not be issues. That would be a low risk development path.

I hope Tesla will mainly copy the existing Model 3 line to G3, and incrementally improve a few bottleneck areas. It doesn't make sense to make it fancy and face potential risk of delay.

 

[Aieukl378]

But we ALL know Elon will not comply and will continue to push SECs buttons regarding his stupid Twitter usage. This is another reason institutional investors are bailing(they know there will be more SEC/Twitter drama ahead.) God it's just so f...ing ridiculous.

Just gonna say I got tons of disagrees when I said TSLA would hit the 240s soon when we were still near 300. We gotta wake up people.

 

[Aieukl378]

He will comply just as he has been since the original agreement. He will push buttons, but that’s not the same as non-compliance.

Yes but institutional investors don't want a CEO who is ****ing with the SEC! And what's troubling is nobody at the executive level seems to understand that.

 

[EVDRVN]

Musk alluded to this, that they would be providing data to the insurance provider as part of the deal. I don't think I would be interested in such insurance for the same reason I don't install one of the monitoring devices that are out there now. One of the biggest joys of owning a Tesla is the launch which would instantly flag you based on the acceleration limit these devices use for a threshold of an unsafe event.

So it's great for old school hyper milers. I't a catch 22, people that buy the cars for the performance and use it safely will be penalized and likely drop out. I see this as more of a long term ploy to adopt very safe drivers and insure autonomy down the road while tightly managing the risk.

 

[EVNow]

I disagree: There are both risks and upsides.

I think that the big question is for Institutional Investors: "Can you invest in the company knowing that the CEO is luring Millennials and Gen Z customers like a magnet with his communication style and an extremely fast paced decision making process? Negatives: Bad image with conservative investors/customers and more errors than your average enterprise. Positives: Future generations love spontaneity and being valued; quick error making drives companies to quick-error fixing if you they have right people and attitude." -> Their call.

The fact is 99% of EM's tweets are fine. Its just that 1% that needs to be caught. There are easy technical solutions to this - without having to assume there are only 2 options - tweet or no tweet at all. This can keep all the upside and greatly reduce the downside.

 

[EVNow]

Yes but institutional investors don't want a CEO who is ****ing with the SEC! And what's troubling is nobody at the executive level seems to understand that.

Yes, that privilege is reserved for Wall St bankers and hedge fund managers. So looking forward to a president who is not in the pocket of Wall St.

 

[Aieukl378]

I’m all for Elon having a free hand on Twitter but I agree with you that he needs to be monitored in some fashion. If something he says affects the stock, it gets doubly amplified by the media. And the media only reports the negative.

He won't stand for monitoring(this has been proven) nor will he refrain from tweeting inappropriately. He is the face of TESLA. He just retweeted a porn site for chrissakes.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well since we are in the weekend and of topic....when it comes to the written word...I aint so good.
I believe I think well and speak well. But translating that into easy to read text is...um ...a challenge.

My spelling is as a third grader....I am pretty sure I flunked grammar. It does not help that the English language is a mess...I usually post from my phone...and am in a hurry.

All this to say I am sure some of my post's look like they were written buy Krugerrand's cat.

That sounded like you just dissed my cat...

 

[Aieukl378]

The fact is 99% of EM's tweets are fine. Its just that 1% that needs to be caught. There are easy technical solutions to this - without having to assume there are only 2 options - tweet or no tweet at all. This can keep all the upside and greatly reduce the downside.

He does not want those 1% to get caught...therein lies the problem.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Disagreers are either delusional or don't hold as much TSLA as I do

Yes, those who disagree also hold TSLA. Buy maybe not as much as you, which would explain why you are lashing out so much. It feels as if you are only thinking with your wallet.

You fail to understand that Tesla = Elon, with all his good sides and all his bad sides. You don’t get to choose which sides he can have and which not. You get the complete package.

Without his good sides Tesla would no longer be around and your shares would be worth nothing.

 

[Aieukl378]

Yes, those who disagree also hold TSLA. Buy maybe not as much as you, which would explain why you are lashing out so much. It feels as if you are only thinking with your wallet.

You fail to understand that Tesla = Elon, with all his good sides and all bad sides. You don’t get to choose which sides he can have and which not. You get the complete package.

Without his good sides Tesla would no longer be around and your shares would be worth nothing.

Jeez I'm lashing out because of the self inflicted damage we've all witnessed since the 420 tweet. Of course I'm thinking with my wallet...I mean this is the inventing forum.

And really the only "bad side" is so frustratingly easy to fix vs. the hyper complicated other amazing stuff he does. It just sucks that the few moments a day he gives to a certain social network totally undermines everything else...and he doesn't(nor apparently anyone else on the board) see this.

 

[EVDRVN]

Yes but institutional investors don't want a CEO who is ****ing with the SEC! And what's troubling is nobody at the executive level seems to understand that.

It's one thing to be a cowboy and another to be an immature one that does not learn, I think this frightens many investors and buyers as well. I have enough millennial neighbors to babysit and Tesla clearly needs adult leadership. I know some of the people in the social circles and they are not the most mature folks unfortunately, they just think everything is great and he's just "that way". Even perceptual maturity with any consistency would go a very long way with the public. The CS and support IQ seems to be dropping and my guess is the good ones get tired of the lack of leadership. Very easy changes in the Tesla organization could reap huge rewards. Some of Tesla reminds me of Aptera's change of guard.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes but institutional investors don't want a CEO who is ****ing with the SEC! And what's troubling is nobody at the executive level seems to understand that.

Time for institutional investors to change with the times. Or we just wait for them to retire.

This archaic thought process that things need to be done the way they’ve always been done is, well - archaic.

 

[Aieukl378]

It's one thing to be a cowboy and another to be an immature one that does not learn, I think this frightens many investors and buyers as well. I have enough millennial neighbors to babysit and Tesla clearly needs adult leadership. I know some of the people in the social circles and they are not the most mature folks unfortunately, they just think everything is great and he's just "that way". Even perceptual maturity with any consistency would go a very long way with the public. The CS and support IQ seems to be dropping and my guess is the good ones get tired of the lack of leadership. Very easy changes in the Tesla organization could reap huge rewards. Some of Tesla reminds me of Aptera's change of guard.

Well said. I mean how would you feel killing yourself as an employee at Tesla, having your stock compensation fall and here's your boss making rap videos, having a pissing match with SEC etc. etc. Then asking for more...and more

 

[Aieukl378]

Time for institutional investors to change with the times. Or we just wait for them to retire.

This archaic thought process that things need to be done the way they’ve always been done is, well - archaic.

For serious?

 

[guidooo]

I get it...it's funny for teens(which I think make up 25 million of his 26 million followers) who see their idol sort of acting like them, rebeling against authority(SEC), stupid memes etc. but damn, is that really important in the grand scheme of things?

Apparently it is.

Isn't it more destructive than constructive?

Probably also depends on what a person really wishes to construct. With Elon being Elon, that's probably also bit difficult to value.

Isn't luring institutional investors back to TSLA more important?

To me it isn't, unless survivability of Tesla is at stake. There can be more reasons to invest then immediate monetary gain,