Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SW2Fiddler]

If people were to eat better, they won't have a cardiac arrest to start with.

But but we would lose the ever tantalizing “Sizzle / Steak” metaphor.
(Been hearing sizzle for four? years...)

 

[EVNow]

And BTW if their self driving gets to something like 99.99% perfect, which is not good enough for Level 5...

Umm, how is 99.99% not good enough? What does that even mean? Have you seen the driving taking place on a daily basis? How many of the human drivers on the road today qualify for 99.99% perfect? Lol maybe .01%...

99.99% means someone can drive 10,000 miles without a crash. Or about a year without a crash. Most humans manage that.

It looks like there is a crash every 150k miles or so. That means on average once every 10 years for an average driver. Or better than 99.999%

 

[EVNow]

But but we would lose the ever tantalizing “Sizzle / Steak” metaphor.
(Been hearing sizzle for four? years...)

It's not steak that causes heart issues. It's the carbs and Omega 6. But we are getting way OT.

 

[anthonyj]

This can't be 'good' for the markets ST:
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....

9:08 AM - 5 May 2019

This is bullish for TSLA. Less cars sold = less cash burned. Just ask any bear

 

[Fact Checking]

Of course, with you, I have to immediately point to a very limited and rare set of circumstances where opposite may be true, or you'll dig out some obscure link(s) that proves it, but that's just spinning.

Firstly, are you really disputing that ABS has much longer braking distance on ice?? It's simple physics, and I cited the numbers: ABS has more than 50% longer braking distance on ice. Are you calling braking ice on roads a 'limited and rare set of circumstances'?

Secondly, many racing series ban ABS altogether, and even when they allow it it's not your everyday street car ABS, it still allows the wheels to slip:

https://www.quora.com/In-the-real-world-Do-race-car-drivers-use-assists-ABS-TCS-STM

"That said, ABS and TC in a race setting are much different than in a street car. We have multiple maps and are changing them on the fly in response to conditions. They also do not ensure that a car doesn't get out of shape, they just allow us to commit slightly early to things, or protect the tires."​

I.e. racing cars typically have weaker ABS that still allows the wheels to slip when cornering, because not having an ABS nanny is beneficial to a professional driver's driving performance. Which was exactly the whole point I made.

What's next after ABS: arguing against benefits of vaccination?

If you read my whole comment and don't just grab out of context quotes then you'll see that I'm not arguing against ABS - to the contrary, in aggregate it has saved countless lives.

Also, you launch personal attacks, then you refuse to reply:

I won't respond any further on this subject.

Classy.

 

[Boomer19]

If only this were actually true?

Sorkin has had zero involvement in Billions since the Pilot.

really? then why is he still getting production credits in the current season?

either way, that wasn’t what my point was (in earlier post), it was just color to further drive it.

 

[RobStark]

Good analogy except that with WW2 just about everyone was actively trying to help. No one was denying that war.

With Climate Change there are many deniers and many pacifists that either try to block or do not care about the climate war.

There were many American pacifist during WWII that wanted to keep America out of yet another "European War" and that is why we stayed out until Japan hit us at Pearl Harbor and Hitler declared war on the USA FIRST.

This led to Winston Churchill to quip you can always count on the Americans to do the right thing; after exhausting every other option first.

 

[ReflexFunds]

99.99% means someone can drive 10,000 miles without a crash. Or about a year without a crash. Most humans manage that.

It looks like there is a crash every 150k miles or so. That means on average once every 10 years for an average driver. Or better than 99.999%

From the 2016 US data, a car is involved in an accident every 246k miles, an accident with an injury every 794k miles and a fatal accident every 60.8 million miles. Note there are 1.8 cars per average crash, so there are more cars in accidents/fatal accidents than there are total crashes and total fatalities. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812501

It doesn't make any sense to me why Tesla reports in its safety report that in the US "there is an automobile crash every 436,000 miles". This is not the relevant number when comparing to Autopilot's crash rate of one accident every 2.87 million miles with Autopilot and every 1.76m miles without AP. There may be a crash every 436k miles, but with 1.8 cars per crash, the average US car has an accident every 246k miles. So Tesla is seriously underselling its accident rate improvement vs the US average. Presumably they just forgot to adjust for number of vehicles per crash, but this is pretty stupid when the average human crash rate is one of the key benchmarks in their FSD progress.
Anyone think of another reason why Tesla did this or am i just being stupid?

We know broadly that Elon is assuming he can launch Robotaxi's when he gets FSD to 3-4x the average human. But does this mean one crash every 247*3=738k miles or 436*3 = 1,308k miles?

In context, using the miles per car per crash metric, rather than the miles per crash numbers, then using 3x safety improvement, 1 million Robotaxis and 100k miles per car per year, Tesla would see:

• 135k Tesla Robotaxis in accidents per year
• 42k accidents involving an injury per year
• And 548 accidents involving a fatality per year (this may be the passenger, a pedestrian or another car driver. The odds of the Tesla passenger dying are lower due to the crash safety design of the Tesla cars).

If your car is at 3x safety improvement, the vast majority of these accidents and fatalities should not be your fault, and Tesla should be able to prove that with its camera data, however this does still leave many deaths that were preventable and a lot of room for media hyperbole while ignoring the 1000 net statistical lives saved.

 

[Fact Checking]

There were many American pacifist during WWII that wanted to keep America out of yet another "European War" and that is why we stayed out until Japan hit us at Pearl Harbor and Hitler declared war on the USA FIRST.

Arguably Hitler had his hands on the scale as well, there was an organized FUD campaign in America before WWII against the U.S.A. attacking Germany:

More Americans Supported Hitler Than You May Think. Here's Why One Expert Thinks That History Isn't Better Known​

Sound familiar? ...

After WWII the Nazis became pariahs in the U.S. for about a generation. Unfortunately much of that generation is not with us anymore.

 

[RobStark]

Anyone sensing the Tesla Insurance could end up be a bad thing for certain groups of people?

I can imagine Tesla crunching your hard driving data ruthlessly and doesn’t put in any attempt to be unbiased at all.

For example if you constantly drift out of your lane and triggers Lane Departure Warning all day long, or rush yellow lights all the time, Tesla’s could raise your rate and try push you out of their plan.
Then when you seek quotes from other insurance, they know by default anyone not taking Tesla’s plan is a bad driver and carries higher risk.
So your rate could hike instead of drop.

But, maybe those groups of people really shouldn’t drive.
When Robotaxis gets cheaper than their insurance rate, they should just give up private car ownership for greater good.

If you are intentionally or unintentionally a bad driver don't get Tesla Insurance.

Go with a traditional carrier.

 

[lklundin]

So in the context of the comment (Elon’s aggressive timelines) there’s even more reason for Elon’s aggressive timelines.

People have to calm down a bit here with the time lines.

Engineering, research and development simply does not work in a way where an insisting management can just magically make things happen faster by setting more ambitious time lines.

 

[elasalle]

This can't be 'good' for the markets ST:
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....

9:08 AM - 5 May 2019

Cap raise couldn't have come at a better time

+ 2 ships to china in Q2, with ETA of 5/08 & 5/14

 

[Remus]

1) Gene Munster, a long time Tesla bull, stated the order flow is dropping.
2) What, in your opinion, would constitute evidence of demand dropping? Evidence I would look for is pulling of demand levers,

You're taking it out of context and spinning it.

Gene was talking about the capital raise and why they didn't do it 6 months ago! Of course the order dipped comparing to 6 month ago!

 

[sundaymorning]

From the 2016 US data, a car is involved in an accident every 246k miles, an accident with an injury every 794k miles and a fatal accident every 60.8 million miles. Note there are 1.8 cars per average crash, so there are more cars in accidents/fatal accidents than there are total crashes and total fatalities. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812501

It doesn't make any sense to me why Tesla reports in its safety report that in the US "there is an automobile crash every 436,000 miles". This is not the relevant number when comparing to Autopilot's crash rate of one accident every 2.87 million miles with Autopilot and every 1.76m miles without AP. There may be a crash every 436k miles, but with 1.8 cars per crash, the average US car has an accident every 246k miles. So Tesla is seriously underselling its accident rate improvement vs the US average. Presumably they just forgot to adjust for number of vehicles per crash, but this is pretty stupid when the average human crash rate is one of the key benchmarks in their FSD progress.
Anyone think of another reason why Tesla did this or am i just being stupid?

We know broadly that Elon is assuming he can launch Robotaxi's when he gets FSD to 3-4x the average human. But does this mean one crash every 247*3=738k miles or 436*3 = 1,308k miles?

In context, using the miles per car per crash metric, rather than the miles per crash numbers, then using 3x safety improvement, 1 million Robotaxis and 100k miles per car per year, Tesla would see:

• 135k Tesla Robotaxis in accidents per year
• 42k accidents involving an injury per year
• And 548 accidents involving a fatality per year (this may be the passenger, a pedestrian or another car driver. The odds of the Tesla passenger dying are lower due to the crash safety design of the Tesla cars).

If your car is at 3x safety improvement, the vast majority of these accidents and fatalities should not be your fault, and Tesla should be able to prove that with its camera data, however this does still leave many deaths that were preventable and a lot of room for media hyperbole while ignoring the statistical lives saved.

Can anyone with twitter get this data out to TESLA?

 

[RobStark]

Who says it’s not? What if the internal deadline is more aggressive than announced? In fact, maybe all public deadlines are less aggressive than internal ones? How would we know?

Because Tesla is the leakiest company out there? At least according to Musk.

The memo warning Employees not to leak reminding them of their NDA gets leaked to the press within hours.

How would internal deadlines not be leaked?

 

[Bobfitz1]

I thought that a driverless car (Uber) already killed a pedestrian (?)
Self-Driving Uber Car Kills Pedestrian in Arizona, Where Robots Roam
So we know the public's reaction to that already ( = none whatsoever).

Assuming the current media and Wall Street environment lasts the next several years, the first fatality from a self driving Tesla will drop SP 20%.

 

[EVNow]

From the 2016 US data, a car is involved in an accident every 246k miles, an accident with an injury every 794k miles and a fatal accident every 60.8 million miles. Note there are 1.8 cars per average crash, so there are more cars in accidents/fatal accidents than there are total crashes and total fatalities. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812501

A Google study estimated 4.2 crashes per million miles. This is 99.9996%. Tesla needs to be at 6 nines to be better than humans. 7 nines would make it better by an order of magnitude. I'd look at this as the point when most people would stop driving.

Crash rates for self-driving cars less than conventional car: study - Reuters

Number of crashes reported to nhtsa should be taken with a pinch of salt because of under-reporting. Insurance providers have the best data here. All state says on average someone gets into a crash every ten years. That makes it about one every 150k miles or so.​

 

[NicoV]

Engineering, research and development simply does not work in a way where an insisting management can just magically make things happen faster by setting more ambitious time lines.

No, it’s mostly sales and marketing that think they can do that.

 

[azaz]

really? then why is he still getting production credits in the current season?

either way, that wasn’t what my point was (in earlier post), it was just color to further drive it.

He gets credited as coming up with the concept of the shoe and is listed as a co-creator but he has no involvement with it now. Brian Koppelman has stated such on Twitter.

 

[Electroman]

Havent seen this posted yet:

About halfway through, Munster says he was at the factory recently and noted the production bottlenecks have been released

Wow CNBC cuts out the word 'dont' in Elon's statement, "I DON'T think raising capital should be a substitute for making the company operate more effectively". It changes the meaning completely.