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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Haven't been following this thread but just wanted to chime in that i hope no ones placed bets on a quick recovery. Stock price is completely broken at this point. Stock never recovers from the macro dips while the macros heavily recover. Stock climbs 4 percent on super heavy volume, then drops 4 percent on light volume. I don't see the stock recovering to the mid 300's for a long time, like not until q3 or q4. At this point i wouldn't mind it staying low until q4, would give me a chance to grow my position by another 20%
could very well be true. we need a good production report at the end of Q2, and perhaps a surprise like accelerated ramp up of MY, to provide evidence of top-line revenue growth in the foreseeable future & then it may come back to life...
 
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VW's new electric car passes 10,000 orders in just 24 hours
More than any other recent news, is this the final nail in the Tesla killer's coffin? This is a decent car from a top brand in a huge segment with no real segment competition. And what do they get for their careful thinking ~2 week's production worth of orders. Would you commit to extra tooling for ramp up at VW - I think not.
 
The economy is doing so well Trump approved an additional 30k foreign worker visas.

That's a laugh. The implication is we needed those 30K workers because we ran out of workers, but that's BS.

With rare exception (when actually used as intended to allow in someone with skills that can't be found here AND paying them accordingly), foreign workers are used to save money for big corporations. From Disney to Silicon Valley, to straight up regular labor trafficking, the H1B visa system is heavily abused at the cost of not just domestic workers but the foreigners who participate as well.

The fix is in: Proof that H-1B visa abuse is rampant

How H-1B visas have been abused since the beginning
 
As a Chinese my personal view is that your hope of quick ending of the trade war for a reverse of TSLA is misplaced. TSLA will recover when they show upward trajectory of delivery numbers in U.S. and Europe. The trade war with China, on the other hand, will go on and off for years.

the democrats oppose almost everything from Trump except the trade war with China. This is a very rare bi-partisan consensus in a divided congress.

The effect of the trade war is worse on China too. I don't think Karl Marx has a solution, but he described the fundamental problems with capitalism extremely well: People as a whole can not afford the goods and services produced by themselves, so in a downward spiral we go. This problem is far far worse in China than in U.S. The evidence is clear as day. When you see venture capitalists in silicon valley praising China for their "996 work ethic" with low pay you know how bad Chinese workers are treated. Let alone all those horrible stories from Foxxcon.

China has been able to avoid the problem for far too long by exporting the excess product overseas, and by government spending on roads and bridges. The bills for those projects are carefully hiding in the books of banks. Now that road almost comes to an end. The new road and belt initiative is a clear indication that the domestic infrastructure investment is saturated, it must find a way out, and they offer to build infrastructure for other countries.

The trump trade war would put pressure on China exacerbating this problem. Chinese has decades to change course to develop a healthy domestic market and reduce the reliance on export, they did not. The next 5 to 10 years would be a real test to Chinese economy when the export already slowing.

Luckily for China, they have a billion people. If the government really want to improve the lives of the people, that's the worlds' biggest market right there, and Tesla can benefit from that too.

Very interesting input, thanks. I think China has great potential to make the world better for their country and the rest of the world, and relevant to this forum can be a great help in both manufacturing and market for Tesla vehicles.. Lots of smart folks and hardworking folks, and actually some overlap in those groups.

Only thing that confuses me is your two themes that “capitalism leads to impoverishment and doom”, along with “socialism (at least China’s current flavor) leads to impoverishment and doom”.
 
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Haven't been following this thread but just wanted to chime in that i hope no ones placed bets on a quick recovery. Stock price is completely broken at this point. Stock never recovers from the macro dips while the macros heavily recover. Stock climbs 4 percent on super heavy volume, then drops 4 percent on light volume. I don't see the stock recovering to the mid 300's for a long time, like not until q3 or q4. At this point i wouldn't mind it staying low until q4, would give me a chance to grow my position by another 20%
I think most of us feel the same way, even the large investors...which is why it's low. I'm hardly an expert, but I was giving some mild advice the other day about Tesla stock and I pointed out that it's not likely to gain much in the next few months.
 
could very well be true. we need a good production report at the end of Q2, and perhaps a surprise like accelerated ramp up of MY, to provide evidence of top-line revenue growth in the foreseeable future & then it may come back to life...

Just to be clear, it's severely undervalued right now, all those things you listed could happen and we prob still won't be back to 325-350/share. The stock price is this low not because of Tesla's revenue, margins, etc....it's artificially being held low. Sure Q1 caused the share price to drop.....but the share priced should have been 400-450/share at that time and dropped to maybe 350/share based on the bad Q1. Tesla's valuation is a joke, it's been a joke since Model 3 ramped in Q3 2018.
 
Meanwhile, the TSLAQ haterz on Twitter on ranting over and over about Elon guaranteeing a million autonomous cars by 2020. I don't recall exactly what he did say, but this sounds like a whole lot of embellishment. Anyone have transcript of what he exactly said during Autonomy Day?

Pete bannon's recollection of a conversation with tesla. About 20% cheaper chip. When elon went, 20% x 1 million. Ok, worth it.
 
Yeah, U.S. economy suffering from the China trade war didn't happen - in some alternate universe.

In our universe just half a year of China trade war brinkmanship back in 2018 and early 2019 was a main factor that crashed the NASDAQ by ~30%:

2527-1546470128.png


That ~30% fall triggered right when the China trade war intensified, and NASDAQ bounced back when a looming China trade deal was announced. I also cited the studies that show that much of the cost of the China trade war is paid by ... U.S. consumers and businesses.

You can [somewhat foolishly] claim that it's coincidence, that it's completely unrelated, that all those studies are just librul conspiracies - but you cannot claim that it didn't happen.

China trade war and the U.S. tech sector goes down - and it's one of the possible recession triggers. TSLA historically also correlated with China trade war worries - given how big the Chinese EV market is.
Higher interest rates had the market in s tizzy , fed threatening 6 or more raises or something ....
 
Meanwhile, the TSLAQ haterz on Twitter on ranting over and over about Elon guaranteeing a million autonomous cars by 2020. I don't recall exactly what he did say, but this sounds like a whole lot of embellishment. Anyone have transcript of what he exactly said during Autonomy Day?

That was immediately misquoted. I'm sorry that I neither have nor can be bothered to track down a transcript. What Elon actually said was that there would be that many Teslas on the road capable of FSD. So it isn't so much an embellishment as a misquotation of what was actually said.
 
Very interesting input, thanks. I think China has great potential to make the world better for their country and the rest of the world, and relevant to this forum can be a great help in both manufacturing and market for Tesla vehicles.. Lots of smart folks and hardworking folks, and actually some overlap in those groups.

Only thing that confuses me is your two themes that “capitalism leads to impoverishment and doom”, along with “socialism (at least China’s current flavor) leads to impoverishment and doom”.

I'd argue that inflation based capitalism leads to that. But more precisely, the need for inflation which in turn necessitate population increase. Forces constant spending as it erodes savings which leads to inefficient use of money.
 
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Maybe I've just not paid much attention in the past, but someone sure at Tesla seems to be on a twitter posting spree. And, no, I don't buy into the story that it is actually Musk. Its been quite the tweet storm.

...and there were two more showing when I posted, but I switched tabs and maybe a dozen were missing. An intern gone crazy?
 
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