RoadsterPlease
Member
bought two times today, officially back as $tsla shareholder with 88 shares 
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I believe there is a better than even chance that there will be a hockey stick growth curve to EV sales.
Problem is that even if there is a hockey stick of demand, it boils down to making the cars to meet that demand. This is why basic execution on the supply chain and manufacturing lines is the single most critical thing at Tesla. It doesn't matter if a million people want your car if you can only make 300K.
I will add that there is something to having a little scarcity of products, especially for desirable ones, but I would not rely on that as being a good thing for Tesla long term. Other solutions...even less good ones...may get the sales if Tesla cannot deliver the goods.
Trump can see what is happening to the markets. He knows he is only tolerable to the people if the economy is growing and the stock market is good. Presidents tend to get re-elected if the economy is good...if its not then people will want change.
My guess is he will concede key points to the Chinese quietly, but publicly proclaim victory about how he drove a great deal for the US.
You should define performance, then, because "Porsche claims that just more than three seconds elapse from takeoff to 60 mph" - way slower than a S ludicrous.
Also, top speed is 162mph - a hair under the Model S, and tied with M3P.
It won't.
N5329K
Active Member
Those numbers seem totally supportable short term. My intermediate-term concern: selling 400k cars will be a lot easier than maintaining them in the field, or supplying spares for the growing fleet. The company has more hills to climb than just efficiently turning out cars in record numbers. At some point, as word gets around that whatever you do don't ding your Tesla because you'll be in service and spares limbo for months, will bite them.
Robin
Could be right. If they delivered just 63k in Q1, even getting to the guidance lower range of 90k requires almost 50% more QoQ. Nothing tells me they can do that yet unless something dramatically changed since Q1 that we don’t know about. And they’re guiding 360k-400k for full year? That would require average of 99k/quarter at the least moving forward. Not convinced they can get there either yet as well.
Did nobody actually notice that the multiplication factor actually changed from 4x to 2x after 2025? If the factor remains 4x for every 6 years we would reach 100% by approx. 2035.
I think it's not realistic to reach 100% by that point due to late adopters & strong opposition from "traditionalists", but anywhere over 85% or even 90% of all new cars, yeah, for sure! At a minimum, no new company car purchase would be allowed to be an ICE, and I believe that's a sizeable chunk of the total demand.
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That would imply a miss, it does not inspire confidence.
Pras
Member
Am I wrong to think that the front fascia of the car is slightly different than mine? Maybe just light doing tricks.
Wooloomooloo
Member
Yes, but Teslamotors.com seemed to vanish for about 15 mins... or at least my connection to it.
I'm calling all my Canadian friends! Looks like a $10K tax break for BC and Quebec (Canada's CA and NY?)
Wow!
Yep...this is why they churn through cash...they have to execute on all the following and they all need money:
1) modify existing lines to support new features (new automation, updated cars like S/X refresh, etc)
2) add new lines for new cars
3) increase battery supply by building new gigafactories
4) add more superchargers around the world and upgrade existing ones to SC3
5) add more service centers around the world
6) invest in R&D on cell technology and other hard goods
7) invest in FSD development
8) build out software base including Tesla Network uber-like app.
9) support USB stick music playback
So they have lots of ways to burn cash and its a real balancing act on where/when to put money. So yes..some things will suffer for a while as there is no steady state yet for them. They are still innovating fast and introducing new product lines like Semi and Model Y and Truck. It's a very very tough business...especially since you have to built out your infrastructure for fueling and servicing the cars. Other auto makers don't have to worry so much about gas stations, they exist. And they don't worry about service that much, they let dealers take care of it. Tesla has bitten off a huge amount of things to tackle.
I know, it happened just as I was trying to post that comment, I hit the Post Reply button and... blank! I panicked a bit! I'm alright now.Yes, but Teslamotors.com seemed to vanish for about 15 mins... or at least my connection to it.
Yea, he likes to pump up his ego by claiming he is the best negotiator and reason for stock market soaring. Regarding this current tariff situation, those two talking points appear to be mutually exclusive.
In my dad's words - If you can't manage N.Korea, how can you manage China, Russia?
Consumer Reports did not do any testing and ranking of their own. That report was just a survey summary of owner satisfaction. As worthless as some of those JD Power Awards.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
This part I used to think so. Xi's only fear is a repeat of tianmen. The recession feel has been going on for at least a year now yet no uprising.
I think the new social credit system, facial recognition ai and god emperor's ascension cemented certain type of stability and fear in the population.
China's resilience is much stronger than we can expect and both usa and china will suffer heavy injuries if Trump judged China to be a pushover and go all in trade war.
On the other hand, capital outflow from China trippled from last quarter and I am happy. A new index should be created to take advantage of this.
Japan, korea, vietnam, taiwan, singapore. Someone make a good acronym out of this please.
Basic questions, trying to understand impact from US/China on Tesla.
- Was Tesla banking on Mfg Model 3's in China to ship some of them to US and lower overall costs? (If so, the cost forecast may have just risen unless all other countries keep stable trade with China and can meet volume required).
- If a Model 3 is made in China and sold in China, are there any import costs - as in sale a from a US company (or is that something that China could retaliate with?)
- What is the thing to watch for here? When people say "Automobiles" and "China Trade", how is Tesla different? (other than a US company owning a factory in China, which may set it apart from the rest when it comes to tarrifs... I don't know)
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