Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Norway is a special case. 100% taxes on new ICE purchase distorted both the new and used markets. So a $50k car that's $100k new might be 60k after 3 years. But who will buy a 3 year old ICE for 60k when a new Model 3 costs 50k?

You really can't apply that to other markets, where that same ICE is 30k after 3 years.

Not a 100%, here's an example of taxes:
Why Norway leads the world in electric vehicle adoption

But with Tesla TCO being lower than ICEs & battery/range improving, hopefully no incentives will be needed soon.

 

[AlMc]

That seems like a lot for $30k. My commission has been $100 per $100k. Otoh, it seems like I'm always paying a bit more on the spread. What rate were you quoted for the convertible?

Yes. seemed excessive so I will contact my 'rep' in the company to see if I can knock it down some and at what level of total buying gives the best rates.

 

[Hock1]

That seems like a lot for $30k. My commission has been $100 per $100k. Otoh, it seems like I'm always paying a bit more on the spread. What rate were you quoted for the convertible?

Sorry to break the news: you are always going to pay a bit more to a discount broker because they front run you on every trade. Do you really think they can survive on $4.95 per trade?

 

[Hock1]

Wrong question. The question is ‘What are short investors missing?’.

No such thing as a "short" investor.

 

[CaliBear1]

View attachment 412991 This afternoon I plugged my P3D into a wind-powered charging station at Crissy Field and added 48 miles over two hours while enjoying a walk to and from the Golden Gate Bridge. I now feel much better about the absurd short-term movement of TSLA.

I forgot to add a very important point:

It's a FREE charging station!!!

So, I burned calories while adding miles for free. If only burning shorts could be so easy! ;-)

 

[dww12]

I am going through this emotional stress as most of you are with the recent SP movement... just doesn’t make sense.

I did all the research and I think demand is much more than people imagine. But the stock is behaving as it is all ending for Tesla. Even that stupid NYU prof is shitting on it. But when I think deep again and again I come to the same conclusions. (Can you see if there is hole in the below points).

1) Model 3 demand is very strong, including in the US. (Case already made in my previous few posts). I am guessing 91k deliveries and equal or more production.
2) Fremont doesn’t require additional capex to support model 3. Hence model 3 margins should be near peak expectation. (Q1 volumes were too low to reflect the true margin).
3) SG&A is basically fixed cost heavy (as Tesla doesn’t have margin based sales). R&D cost on FSD and chip is again fixed cost heavy. So both these cost margin should improve significantly.
4) Model 3 margins should improve even compared to Q4 because then Fremont was still building up. End of quarter rush also added multiple costs.
5) China cost is separately assessed.
6) one time restructuring costs from Q1 should reflect as savings in Q2.
7) ASP should remain as high as Q1.
8) the literal x-factors are Raven demand.
9) cash problem should be gone for at least some time, as the quarter should be cash neutral at worse and with new raise there is additional buffer.
10) model Y ramp up is the only big draw.

A few more points. It could be possible that in China Tesla starts taking reservation for SR models. Given the lead time to start build it sure does make sense. Note that in China ICE cars are too expensive get the license for.

So is the case in Norway and Canada where strong incentive will pull a perpetual demand.

So what am I missing?

We don’t know what the Model 3 lease mix is.

 

[Carl Raymond]

This is coming
View attachment 413000

This is big. Norway gives us a sneak peak into the used car market, x years from now, where x is the number of years your local market lags Norway in EV adoption.

As people grok this, the new ICE market collapses, people will buy EV or used ICEV only. Stock prices in ICEV makers collapses. Their window of opportunity to go electric while solvent shortens.

Warn your friends on facebook that now is a bad time to buy an ICEV if they hope to have any resale. If they take out a lease, make sure it's one where they don't end up forced to pay the residual. Let the leasing company wear it (assuming the leasing company survives).

 

[Fact Checking]

No such thing as a "short" investor.

Yes, shorts are "anti-investors", "anti-shareholders", "divesters" - but not "investors".

 

[MarcusMaximus]

They buried the lede: "Neither company plans to put money into this project, though."

This story is too funny. They made a big announcement that they're.... not going to do anything. They're setting up a new company with no funds and hoping other people come in and actually run it.

 

[EVNow]

So what am I missing?

Its not clear which quarter/year you are talking about.

Bear assumption is that because of the sales going down one quarter, it will keep going down. We think its an aberration. We've been followng EVs for a long time to know Q1 is always a big dip compared to Q4 - though not for Tesla. Apparently bears have a problem looking at past data.

Even Tesla makes more in Q1 & Q2 compared to deliveries. In Q3 & Q4 they deliver more than they produce.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tell us the pre-order name and we'll pre-order @ our fav bookstore!

But if it sucks, I want my money back in TLSA shares. Should get about 2 shares by then since this baby is going to $10.

 

[CaliBear1]

Does that charger have ads on it? I think Tesla should look into that as a way to fund the SC cost.

No ads. And free! It only requests that you limit charging to two hours.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I couldn’t take the stupidity any more and recently loaded up on some more shares. The current price is stupid low.

 

[Periodicowner123]

So in regards to all of the recent headlines saying how Tesla is going to go bankrupt/get acquired from some other company as well as the decline in stock price these past couple of weeks, do you think now is a good time to pickup some shares or do you think the stock will continue to go down from here until some really good news comes out.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Due to the latest dip I was able to get an extra share with the leftovers in my account...yay me!

Dan

 

[Icer]

Those are swing traders. Been tracking that for a while. Too bad it doesn't go past a year

Robinhood requires 25K in the account to day trade.
Limit is 3 same day buy/sells in 5 days otherwise.
More likely HODLers hoping to get back to zero
along with folks jumping in at the new low prices.
*
Resale of used EVs

Right now, all except the TSLA are dead in the water
Leaf for example.
And the TSLA numbers arent fun.

Folks know what to expect with a gas car, know how not to ruin it, etc
Replacing a battery is the price of another nice car.
*
'R/
What scares me is I very much do not want these to be throwaway cars.
Jason, WK057 is my hero.
*
Diagnostic app running on my cellphone...
Please?

Then I can consider it
Until, then, I buy stock, admire from afar.

It is a personal thing with me,
I have to be able to fix the thing,
Understand it.
*
Relevant Guitar fact
Every electric guitar ever built
plugs into every amp ever built

I very much miss that old school cool generation of engineers

Today I would need some sort of an adaptor to
play my Apple guitar in my Sony amp.

Anyway.
I'll survive it.

Probably
/R

 

[LJS22]

I am going through this emotional stress as most of you are with the recent SP movement... just doesn’t make sense.

I did all the research and I think demand is much more than people imagine. But the stock is behaving as it is all ending for Tesla. Even that stupid NYU prof is shitting on it. But when I think deep again and again I come to the same conclusions. (Can you see if there is hole in the below points).

1) Model 3 demand is very strong, including in the US. (Case already made in my previous few posts). I am guessing 91k deliveries and equal or more production.
2) Fremont doesn’t require additional capex to support model 3. Hence model 3 margins should be near peak expectation. (Q1 volumes were too low to reflect the true margin).
3) SG&A is basically fixed cost heavy (as Tesla doesn’t have margin based sales). R&D cost on FSD and chip is again fixed cost heavy. So both these cost margin should improve significantly.
4) Model 3 margins should improve even compared to Q4 because then Fremont was still building up. End of quarter rush also added multiple costs.
5) China cost is separately assessed.
6) one time restructuring costs from Q1 should reflect as savings in Q2.
7) ASP should remain as high as Q1.
8) the literal x-factors are Raven demand.
9) cash problem should be gone for at least some time, as the quarter should be cash neutral at worse and with new raise there is additional buffer.
10) model Y ramp up is the only big draw.

A few more points. It could be possible that in China Tesla starts taking reservation for SR models. Given the lead time to start build it sure does make sense. Note that in China ICE cars are too expensive get the license for.

So is the case in Norway and Canada where strong incentive will pull a perpetual demand.

So what am I missing?

The current short narrative is that the debt load will outweigh investor support. They are betting that Tesla loses support and effectively can’t raise money. With many firms lowering their evaluation of Tesla it has been easy to tank the stock. I know they’ve been trying to build up demand as an issue but they are quickly seeing that notion disappearing.
They will come up with something new each time a narrative is proven false.

But the stock will see more support when delivery numbers hit, and they show a path to profit. Support will be overwhelming at that point. I think the main problem is supporters want to see Tesla play small ball and drive the company slowly to a profit and a long life. Meanwhile, Musk is setting up grand slams and playing for the ultimate knock out punch (autonomy, solar, semi). It’s a big risk but with the stock sitting around $190 the reward may be huge.

 

[Remus]

Folks know what to expect with a gas car, know how not to ruin it, etc
Replacing a battery is the price of another nice car.

This will weigh the market for sometime but it will resolve by itself.

One complaint when Japanese cars first sold in the state is it's hard to fix, hard to get parts. It uses this strange metrics system that nobody understands. Their engine bay layout is different from their american counterparts. We now know what happens to those complaints after several decades.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think we have a case here of yes and. Those who look at NOA performance and say it’s total crap are picking their data carefully to prove what they already think, or what they think will draw the most clicks. And those who look at NOA performance and say everything is fine here, no problem at all, are doing pretty much the same thing. To me, the most persuasive argument is that NOA works as advertised much of the time and is safer than many (most?) drivers for much of the time. And when it doesn’t (those pesky edge cases), the results can be expensive, or catastrophic.
Robin

Just how can the results be expensive or catastrophic? Oh, right. Only if a driver isn’t paying attention. That would be a fact whether NOA was in use or not - so strawman argument.

NOA works really well and it’s getting better, fast. That’s not saying it’s perfect, but neither is it some horrific mess.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Electrek - 44 minutes ago: Tesla owner says Autopilot saved him from crash unknowingly until checking dashcam - Electrek

Non-Lamebert Edition: