Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AcesDealt]

Unknown for 3 LR.

They had to shift 3 LR production to SR just to make more vehicles due to Panasonic battery limitations.

The gross profit per kWh is higher on the LR model. This theory doesn’t make sense unless Tesla prefers unit volume over profitability.

 

[bdy0627]

Easiest possible explanation: these robinhood youngsters buy 20-50-100 shares in hope that stock will eventually pay for their model 3 or Y in couple of years or so. They probably won't use leverage and or course they don't set stoploss. This robintrack chart is the biggest headache now for shorties, as despite they somehow drove institutions to exit with SEC lawsuit nightmare, they still can't figure out the way to force robinhood crowd to sell: retail is buying this dip like crazy.

Another thing to consider: right now old smart shorts are exiting but to cover they need to buy stock. But they only can buy from a) covering frustrated longs b) newbie shorts who are brave and stupid enough to short at these levels. Hence the constant need to maintain exceptionally high, almost hysterical level of FUD and bearish propaganda.

It really begins to smell like Feb 2016 now. This setup has the potential to explode up to new ATH

I very much disagree that the stock is setting up to explode to ATH. Melt up at some point due to some short covering and longs coming back in, yes, but the current situation is not a setup for a massive climb to ATH. IMO, that is going to take some time, plus we have the deteriorating trade war going on, possible looming recession, stock market up near ATH. Yes, the stock is down over 50% from ATH, similar to Feb 2016, and there is a massive amount of FUD, also similar to 2016, but otherwise this is a different setup than Feb 2016. The market rocketed up as TSLA rapidly climbed back up too. Are we realistically expecting the stock market to go bonkers climbing in the midst of the macro situation, just 7% below ATH? Do we really expect institutions and analysts to immediately flip 180 if Tesla meets guidance for Q2 deliveries with a solid financial result? That's just not going to happen. I think at best we bounce up at some point but still trade in a lower range than we did prior to this long drop. We will likely need model Y rolling before we could jump to a new ATH. I really wish that wasn't the case, but I think it's reality.

 

[Artful Dodger]

this is getting tiring. it goes down every day but we still sit here in this same range. it’s basically psychological warfare at this point.

everything about it. the media attacks, the price action...
they’re trying to make it so there’s no point in wanting the products or the stock, because neither is worth the drama.

Lol, "his ideas... methods... became unsound."

Just relax brah, it'll be alright. They're just lying because that's how they make a living. They want it to go back up so they can short it again... and again... and again...

Eventually Tesla will do a stock buyback to end all this. But in the meantime, shortie gonna short.

Cheers!

 

[Zaxxon]

doing everything he can to decimate the stock.

If only it had stopped at the true/historical definition of decimation...

 

[tivoboy]

Lower before much higher.

 

[bdy0627]

Demand is not greater than supply for S or X or 3 LR versions. People should be more specific in their thinking when they use this trope.

You need to clarify that statement by adding "in the markets they are currently being sold in." Tesla has not opened sales to all markets yet, so that's a misleading statement to make without the clarification. But yes, I don't think it's debatable that Tesla currently can produce more S, X, and LR3 than they can sell to their current markets. S and X guidance for 2019 was lowered in Q4 2018 ER because Tesla realized this, so that's a given. Tesla is turning more and more to SR+ because they need to in order to sell all the model 3 that they can produce, even though they do have more markets to sell into. They can produce more SR+, so there's that, but it seems clear to me from the sales mix that Tesla could not sell 100% LR model 3 at the current production level.

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 412991 This afternoon I plugged my P3D into a wind-powered charging station at Crissy Field and added 48 miles over two hours while enjoying a walk to and from the Golden Gate Bridge. I now feel much better about the absurd short-term movement of TSLA.

Lol, hate to burst your bubble, but there's no way that little turbine makes 6 KW (maybe 500 W but prolly not).

Look for the grid connection to the charger head...

Cheers!

P.S.. LOVE'd your photo anyway! Looks like an awesome way to spend the afternoon.

 

[AlMc]

Damage? Never forget that a stock price is the equivalent of somebody standing in front of your house shouting out prices that they believe your house to be worth. When they shout a lower number, the house is not actually damaged. It's the same house.

In the case of Tesla, the house is largely under construction. It gets more valuable every day.

Unfortunately, the house and TSLA are only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it. You may think your house is worth 2x what the bank appraiser tells a buyer your home is worth.

Point: We are stuck in (hopefully no lower) the 180-280 range that everyone here thought we left behind several years ago. I would have been one of them. We can only hope home prices, I mean TSLA, rise.

I agree with @bdy0627 : EM has been pumping. It use to work really well but his credibility is shot (self inflicted mostly) until they produce and deliver. Until then both bear and bull comments (including mine) are just noise.

 

[bdy0627]

I am going through this emotional stress as most of you are with the recent SP movement... just doesn’t make sense.

I did all the research and I think demand is much more than people imagine. But the stock is behaving as it is all ending for Tesla. Even that stupid NYU prof is shitting on it. But when I think deep again and again I come to the same conclusions. (Can you see if there is hole in the below points).

1) Model 3 demand is very strong, including in the US. (Case already made in my previous few posts). I am guessing 91k deliveries and equal or more production.
2) Fremont doesn’t require additional capex to support model 3. Hence model 3 margins should be near peak expectation. (Q1 volumes were too low to reflect the true margin).
3) SG&A is basically fixed cost heavy (as Tesla doesn’t have margin based sales). R&D cost on FSD and chip is again fixed cost heavy. So both these cost margin should improve significantly.
4) Model 3 margins should improve even compared to Q4 because then Fremont was still building up. End of quarter rush also added multiple costs.
5) China cost is separately assessed.
6) one time restructuring costs from Q1 should reflect as savings in Q2.
7) ASP should remain as high as Q1.
8) the literal x-factors are Raven demand.
9) cash problem should be gone for at least some time, as the quarter should be cash neutral at worse and with new raise there is additional buffer.
10) model Y ramp up is the only big draw.

A few more points. It could be possible that in China Tesla starts taking reservation for SR models. Given the lead time to start build it sure does make sense. Note that in China ICE cars are too expensive get the license for.

So is the case in Norway and Canada where strong incentive will pull a perpetual demand.

So what am I missing?

Only 2 points I would make would be to back down a little on deliveries. While they could hit 90k+, I would say 85k is probably more realistic to expect. As to ASP, with all of the SR+ we are seeing, I would guess that will lower the ASP. Why do you think it wouldn't be lower than Q1?

 

[Electroman]

EM has been pumping. It use to work really well but his credibility is shot (self inflicted mostly) until they produce and deliver.

can't disagree with this... all self inflicted starting from: pedo, to coast to coast FSD, there should be no doubt we will make 500K M3 by end of 2017, 402, profitable every quarter..

 

[Krugerrand]

Lols. It wasn't TSLAQ who told me the cap raise would increase $TSLA's value. Just me. I only bought a handful of penny options, $300 strike calls and some shares so it's not a total loss. TSLA was at a price point where market makers can nuke the price and trigger panic selling, shorty FOMO and margin calls. The price we see today is fake and may not last long. At this point I would actually like to see double digits before the reversal as it would flush out the day traders, leveraged folk (sorry), and weak hands

Are you a Gemini?

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Demand is not greater than supply for S or X or 3 LR versions. People should be more specific in their thinking when they use this trope.

getting there, says this national randomized survey for the UK, just takes time but awareness is growing rapidly now and is the precursor to ongoing demand increases...
Nearly 75% of car buyers are considering an electric car as their next vehicle

 

[generalenthu]

View attachment 413024



This is big. Norway gives us a sneak peak into the used car market, x years from now, where x is the number of years your local market lags Norway in EV adoption.

As people grok this, the new ICE market collapses, people will buy EV or used ICEV only. Stock prices in ICEV makers collapses. Their window of opportunity to go electric while solvent shortens.

Warn your friends on facebook that now is a bad time to buy an ICEV if they hope to have any resale. If they take out a lease, make sure it's one where they don't end up forced to pay the residual. Let the leasing company wear it (assuming the leasing company survives).

I think in a couple of years, this will happen in California. At some point, it will make sense to flip HOV lanes and normal lanes and force all ICE vehicles to stay in the previously HOV lanes where such lanes exist. EVs get multiple lanes. Next step is to make major roads EV only. That should squeeze out the stragglers.

I think that Cabernet had more alcohol than what it said on the label.

 

[RobStark]

This story is too funny. They made a big announcement that they're.... not going to do anything. They're setting up a new company with no funds and hoping other people come in and actually run it.

Lets set up TMC INC.

A company to set up at least 3 Gigafactories in Europe, China, and North America plus one in South America,Africa, and Australia. With a total capacity for 20M BEVS per year.

TMC Investors Forum will provide all the data insights.

Someone else provides the capital. We can even nominate a few CEO,CTO, CMO candidates.


BTW I can do a better job than GM can in provide data where to put in chargers. Just look at the Supercharger Map and build CCS fast chargers within a 7 mile radius of those.

 

[VValleyEV]

I have not. Do I even have that ability? I do not know. Hmm....

Added in 2019.16.2. There is an option in NOA, default off, to let it change lanes by itself without any confirmation from you. THIS is what CR slammed as unsafe, and it was immediately picked up as “Tesla’s AP is unsafe”, or at the very least “NOA is unsafe”. They went on CNBC to clarify and made it worse.

They said that it kept trying to change into a left lane in spite of a fast approaching car in that lane, and other examples, all of which made them disable AP in a panic, and none of which they supported with video or even car camera logs.

It would be great if you could give it a run through, and please be careful.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Unfortunately, the house and TSLA are only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it. You may think your house is worth 2x what the bank appraiser tells a buyer your home is worth.

Point: We are stuck in (hopefully no lower) the 180-280 range that everyone here thought we left behind several years ago. I would have been one of them. We can only hope home prices, I mean TSLA, rise.

I agree with @bdy0627 : EM has been pumping. It use to work really well but his credibility is shot (self inflicted mostly) until they produce and deliver. Until then both bear and bull comments (including mine) are just noise.

Well the point is that the house is fine, but the valuation sucks because of reported issues that don’t exist or are temporary. If you are in the market for such a house, you’d buy it quickly before people realised it was under valued.

 

[MP3Mike]

The gross profit per kWh is higher on the LR model. This theory doesn’t make sense unless Tesla prefers unit volume over profitability.

They couldn't build any more LRs because they didn't have enough batteries. So the choices were to sell fewer LRs leaving unused capacity at Fremont or to switch to selling more MR/SR variants and actually utilize all of your capacity. (More efficient use of capital/resources.)

 

[capster]

Unfortunately, the house and TSLA are only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it. You may think your house is worth 2x what the bank appraiser tells a buyer your home is worth.

Point: We are stuck in (hopefully no lower) the 180-280 range that everyone here thought we left behind several years ago. I would have been one of them. We can only hope home prices, I mean TSLA, rise.

I agree with @bdy0627 : EM has been pumping. It use to work really well but his credibility is shot (self inflicted mostly) until they produce and deliver. Until then both bear and bull comments (including mine) are just noise.

Fools and their TSLA shares are soon parted. Pearls remain pearls despite what the wolves in swines’ clothing might have you believe.

I trust Elon and I’m sure there remain others who do to, ergo his credibility isn’t shot.

Why get the vapors just because someone is paying the papers to tell you you should have them?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Did anyone happen to notice that 70% of available shares for loan are shorting Uber? Smart people see the writing on the wall. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

"That’s out of sync with sell-side analyst calls. Four of those covering Uber recommend buying the stock, while five say hold and none recommend selling. Lyft has 16 buy, seven hold and two sell recommendations."​

Seems similar to Tesla in reverse. Only with Uber, the shorting reasons are so obvious while the Analysts promote it.

Then, when foreign experts admit they can't get the large data needed for L5 autonomous driving (read it today somewhere here...), you better believe Uber, Lyft, and a dozen other auto Mfgrs are scared. If Elon, with the brightest talent in the industry, is having a serious challenge with FSD, investors can draw a conclusion here. As the saying goes, "Don't bet against Elon", so these smart people aren't by shorting Uber.

I'm not worried about stock price. Disappointed but not worried, and looking forward to record highs this year, maybe next. Something tells me sooner... everything seems lined up. Elon's laying low. I know this calm, seen it before.

 

[CaliBear1]

Lol, hate to burst your bubble, but there's no way that little turbine makes 6 KW (maybe 500 W but prolly not).

Look for the grid connection to the charger head...

Cheers!

P.S.. LOVE'd your photo anyway! Looks like an awesome way to spend the afternoon.

There were at least 4 turbines and also solar panels at the Crissy Center, which is adjacent to the charger and its two charge points. I only included the one closest to my car in the photo so I could also include the Golden Gate Bridge in the shot. Regardless, I was making some assumptions that may be incorrect. The two things I'm sure of is that it was free and gave me 48 mile while I walked for two hours.