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Model 3 prices in China are low versus comparable cars. Everybody saying otherwise does not look at facts. Chinese who are disappointed may have fallen in the trap to believe in even lower prices as they are now.

"The average price on a new passenger vehicle sold in China was about $55k USD in 2019 Model 3 Made in China Starts at just $41,000 USD after savings"

Steve Jobs on Twitter
 
"The average price on a new passenger vehicle sold in China was about $55k USD in 2019 Model 3 Made in China Starts at just $41,000 USD after savings"

Steve Jobs on Twitter

Small correction: the $55k price is for the "small SUV" segment in China.

Overall average Chinese new car ASPs are much lower, because per capital free disposable income is much lower in China than in western countries:


Note that even in Chinese cities personal income is below $6,000 per year, which defines the ASP economic and psychological sweet spot for the largest volume car sales: below $10k (below 100k Yuan).

The premium cars segment in the 300-400k yuan price range is subsequently much smaller - but still very lucrative - the premium German brands are selling about a million cars in China per year in that price range.

I.e. for premium and luxury cars the Chinese market is roughly comparable to the U.S. market. The big difference is growth prospects: EV sales are exploding in China, they are now around ~10% of all car sales, and they are cannibalizing gascar sales. Personal income is also rising rapidly, with a ceiling of 1.4 billion people, which makes the future addressable market larger than the U.S. and Europe combined.

Once gascars become 'uncool' in China, especially if helped by government policies, I expect a repeat of Norway/California, with luxury gascar sales collapsing first.
 
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Spoke to Tesla Ireland yesterday, they thought September earliest deliveries.

Website opened today and has July!

Will see if they really start arriving then!
 

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I thought the Model 3 was disqualified because it was ~1 inch too long.
You got a few "funny" scores from people here but they probably don't know you are only half wrong. There is/was a proposal from VW (I think) that was supposed to put a cap on vehicle length and it just happened to be an inch or so shorter than the Model 3.

This was just a proposal though and it is not part of the current rules and regulations.
 
Oddly Australia only allows you to order M3SR+ and M3P. No LR options, no white interior and no 19" sport wheels. Similar for other countries listed but some also exclude M3P, eg Hong Kong!

To be specific, Australia, Ireland, Japan, and New Zealand are SR+ and P only, Hong Kong and Macau are SR+ only.

...hypothesis: with the exception of Australia, these are pretty small regions, so maybe they're just not focusing on range? Additionally, Supercharger coverage on the main island of Japan and in New Zealand looks pretty good, Macau is absolutely tiny, Hong Kong is quite small and is covered in Superchargers, leaving Australia (which looks to have decent coverage on the populated east coast, but outside of one (1) Supercharger in Western Australia, nothing else) and Ireland (which could use some more).

I suspect sales will not be a problem at all in Hong Kong and Macau.

I'd guess that New Zealand would be fine as well.

Australia... the question is really, how often do people think they'll cross the Outback? That's currently impossible in a Tesla.

As I understand home charging concerns have slowed EV adoption in Ireland, but they like sedans unlike most of Europe, so the body style won't turn people off.

And then there's Japan. I'd guess that they'd need the CHAdeMO adapter that's been discussed recently, and I'm not sure how well a car that big will sell... and there's all sorts of political issues wrapped up in it as well. I'm curious how well the Model 3 does, really.

Oh, and meta comment: there are way too many people talking politics in this thread. Not even politics' effect on macros, just the nitty gritty of what may happen in politics in the next year and a half. We have a thread for that...
 
Means they're all hard-coded, no microcode layer slowing things down. Only 3 bits needed to specify the instruction (though I bet they use 4). It's a really nice chip.

Yeah, so the microcode layer is not slowing things down in modern CPUs, even if they have a complex instruction set - the overwhelming majority of instructions are hard-coded there as well, with microcode only executing system level functionality or obsolete instructions these days. It's not an intermediate layer anymore, but an exception mechanism with very little direct cost.

But your overall conclusion is nevertheless correct: Tesla has a huge chip design advantage by using just 8 instructions.

This advantage that Tesla has with its extremely simplified instruction set can be best understood by looking at an older CPU architecture from ~15 years ago where the internal die layout is known already:

Northwood_130nm_die_text_1600x1200.jpg


(Current CPUs will have a similar execution architecture but much larger caches - and there are no public annotated die diagrams.)

The important takeaway from that annotated image of the Intel CPU die is the part marked "Integer Execution Core" and "FP, MMX, SSE2" block marked right above it, in the center of the chip.

Those two central areas are the REAL CPU that calculate things and make programs progress. All the other bits: the "Execution Pipeline Start", "Instruction Trace Cache", "Address Predict", "Instruction Decoder", "Branch Prediction", "Buffer Allocation & Register Rename" areas are a consequence of trying to make a historically complex and poorly designed instruction set go fast, and these complications are entirely missing from Tesla's chip.

This is one of the little understood reasons why Tesla's chip is such a huge deal and break-through, even compared to GPU's which have simpler instructions set than Intel's x86 instruction set: Tesla uses a very narrow, simplified, hard-coded set of instructions directly mapped to very simple and single-purpose functional units with few dependencies, a single data format and a minimum number of input parameters, and as a result they could hard-code the entire chip with single cycle execution and didn't have to use a superscalar architecture at all. This is what allowed them to put so much directly addressable SRAM on-die, and allowed them to pack an obscene amount of functional units with ridiculous parallelism.

This is the magic Pete Bannon and Jim Keller dreamed up for Tesla - and it's one for the history books, because this design is probably close to the theoretical neural net processing performance limit that can be achieved with transistor based processors (!). First principles based disruptive engineering at its best.

(BTW., side note: I think if they have 8 instructions then Tesla encodes them in 3 bits, not 4 bits, due to another advantage Tesla has: no legacies, no compatibility to keep. They are their own only customers, and they can modify the compiler trivially if there's a new hardware variant with a new instruction format. Why waste even a single bit on future-proofing something that doesn't require future-proofing?)

TL;DR: this gives Tesla both a die utilization advantage (they can use a billion transistors/gates for real computation, not to handle a complicated instruction set), but also gives them a very significant power consumption advantage, which directly transforms into more performance: the power budget is actually the main performance constraint on modern desktop CPUs for example - only so much power can be pumped into a chip before it melts.

For Wall Street much of the chip design details offered on Autonomy Day was all a giant woosh though - but it gives Tesla a real competitive advantage measured in years even compared to other chip-makers. Other carmakers? This is so outside their usual comfort zone that I think they can realistically only hope that other chip-makers are going to sell a usuable FSD solution to them, and they'll suffer the disadvantages of horizontal outsourcing of a key competency (car computing) for decades. How they are going to train their neural nets I have no idea. Tesla's lead appears insurmountable there.
 
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Australia... the question is really, how often do people think they'll cross the Outback? That's currently impossible in a Tesla.

People fly to Perth. It’s cheaper and saves three days.

People who do cross the outback have rugged vehicles. They would not buy a BMW or an Audi either. Entirely different segment until such time as rugged vehicles go electric.
 
Its worth pointing out (I'm a games programmer) that even GPUs have a HUGE amount of legacy support to do. They have to support DirectX, OpenGL and now Vulkan, as well as CUDA for nvidia, and support multiple versions going back decades when stuff was done differently. Not as bad as having to make an i7 chip still run code from the 1990s, but its still a real dogs-breakfast of backwards compatibility.
Having a custom chip running a custom instruction set is the holy grail. Leaving nvidia and their ilk behind is a very forward-thinking move by tesla.
 
Although, my understanding was that that compatibility was implemented at the driver level, as long as hardware that could implement those primitives was present? (That is, my understanding is that a modern GPU driver is really a JIT compiler of DirectX on Microsoft platforms, OpenGL, Vulkan, Metal on Apple platforms, OpenCL, and CUDA to whatever the native instruction set of the GPU is?)

Still, Tesla even has an advantage over that, because they can ship actual native instruction streams for their chip, and not even have runtime compilation overhead.
 
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Leaving nvidia and their ilk behind is a very forward-thinking move by tesla.

We need to be fair to Nvidia: even their 3 years old chip on the HW2 platform is performing Autopilot magic today, and they were a very good stop-gap measure both Tesla and Nvidia understood to be a temporary relationship: Tesla was already working on their new chip when they made the deal with Nvidia, and I'm sure Nvidia knew that perfectly well. Nvidia also reacted in a very generous blog post to Tesla's chip disclosures in April.

The Tesla chip primarily replaced MobilEye's custom ASIC in AP1, and note that MobilEye's CEO was one of the original and early sources of anti-Autopilot FUD...
 
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Although, my understanding was that that compatibility was implemented at the driver level, as long as hardware that could implement those primitives was present? (That is, my understanding is that a modern GPU driver is really a JIT compiler of DirectX on Microsoft platforms, OpenGL, Vulkan, Metal on Apple platforms, OpenCL, and CUDA to whatever the native instruction set of the GPU is?)

That's true, but in reality the GPU's real instruction set has to properly support the superset of all the capabilities and data format that these very large 3D APIs define, and if an older but still popular game benchmarks poorly on a new video card then that video card is not going to sell as well.

There's subtle differences, idiosyncrasies, patent traps and other complications that make 'legacy' and 'compatibility' a real issue for GPU design as well.

Especially CUDA/OpenCL complicates GPU design: the are very flexible parallel computing programming environments that allows the running of almost arbitrary programs on GPUs - but 'very flexible' means there's a lot of different workloads running on GPU clusters: simulations, data analysis, rendering, neural net training, etc. - each with different data sizes and usage patterns, different parallelism, different data formats and different conditional code flows. The GPU design has to meet all those major, varied and generic workloads, because it's being run by their paying customers.

Tesla's only paying customer is running neural net inference computing using minifloats. That's a very, very big design and performance advantage.
 
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Chinese people who likes Tesla because it's unlike other brands(has big price gap between foreign market and Chinese market)
now they learned that tesla is no different than others
I'm just state the feeling of how Chinese people feel , here is the link for the m3 forum if you can read Chinese
【图】Model 3论坛_Model 3车友会_汽车之家
I hope this price would works probably more than most people here, but by what I know so far people are not happy.
I'm supper long on tsla. l have few thousands tsla shares, and keeping adding shares recently. I'm hope and believe tesla will be succeed, but we have to admit that the constant price change and the higher m3 price in china is not good for tesla.

I ran it through Google Translate and although it was a bit of a mess, I saw one thread complaining about the price, the rest was all general chatter about M3.

In any case, as others have said, keep the price competitive with the opposition - M3 is a way better car anyway even if it costs more and in any case, the idea is for Tesla to make some profits here, not give them away at cost.
 
With the order opening in new markets ( UK,
Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Ireland and Macau ) and China price clarification Tesla should be able to withstand any major demand slowdown in the overall market due to say tariff war. This also buys time for Model Y ramp up and battery cell ramp up to 35gwh output. Also in RHD countries they are just selling SR+ and performance versions. This will simplify order matching and logistics.

So Q3 seems to be a bit hedged against potential trade war slowdown and US tax mini cliff (I am guessing these will have a net effect of 20-30k and the new markets can offset a large part of it).

Just my thought.
 
I get it, So I don't understand why tesla announce the price now.

To stop people waiting for GF3 to start producing cars, thinking they're going to be half the price of the imports, i.e., if you want a Model 3 in China, don't wait, order one now.

Seems very sensible to me and although the cost is comparable, Tesla will make more profits from the local cars, which is what we need going forwards.
 
Regarding frustrations expressed on forums
Recall that when M3 hit in the USA?
Folks were giddily grabbing the $70k hot rod

Forums were flooded with the frustrated 200 or so thousand
that had spent years anxiously awaiting the 35k impossible dream

For people stretching to 35K, and
hoping for a crazy low $27.5 price with the credit,
it had to feel like getting up Christmas morning
and there is a note under the tree
"will be back later"

"Have a cookie"
*
Something they almost had, but couldn't reach.
It follows that these would be the most frustrated, emotional posts.
The same thing is likely happening on the CH based forums now.

I'm trying to work out if your posts are attempts at poetry, which the long-timers here all know is banned on grounds of superstition. Maybe if you had the lines rhyme a bit better?
 
It appears Tesla is selling sr+ and perf models and skipping lr awd in many of the newer markets(RHD?). The perf model is slotting in at the lr awd price so therefore discounted. A lot of strange missing combinations of white interior and tire size and so on.

I dunno about all this hyperoptimization chess playing.
 
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Small correction: the $55k price is for the "small SUV" segment in China.

Overall average Chinese new car ASPs are much lower, because per capital free disposable income is much lower in China than in western countries:


Note that even in Chinese cities personal income is below $6,000 per year, which defines the ASP economic and psychological sweet spot for the largest volume car sales: below $10k (below 100k Yuan).

The premium cars segment in the 300-400k yuan price range is subsequently much smaller - but still very lucrative - the premium German brands are selling about a million cars in China per year in that price range.

I.e. for premium and luxury cars the Chinese market is roughly comparable to the U.S. market. The big difference is growth prospects: EV sales are exploding in China, they are now around ~10% of all car sales, and they are cannibalizing gascar sales. Personal income is also rising rapidly, with a ceiling of 1.4 billion people, which makes the future addressable market larger than the U.S. and Europe combined.

Once gascars become 'uncool' in China, especially if helped by government policies, I expect a repeat of Norway/California, with luxury gascar sales collapsing first.

No why would a small suv cost 55K? It’s average price for Executive Cars.

I don’t know what that tweet is supposed to mean.

$55K average price for Chinese market? That’s impossible. The Average price for the US is just 35K.

And that tweet got 30 likes? Steve Jobs has used his reality distortion field once more.