Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

SP had gone to $309 in the early pre-market trading - now at $303.

Nasdaq is about 0.7% down.

So, its possible SP will mostly reflect Nasdaq today and go to 29x. Atleast we have the answer as to whether it will open +3% or not.

 

[Reciprocity]

Porsche now planning on doubling production of Taycan to 40,000 per year.

Good luck finding battery cells at a reasonable price. Double production will probably incur at least 10% increase in battery price to starve other customers.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Taycan is a direct competitor to the Model S.

If the standard Taycan ends up being a proper sedan with proper trunk then E Cross Turrisimo version will be a liftback sedan getting closer to a shooting brake with a liftgate.

911 is a 2+2 sports car. With the +2 being so tiny it is more a shelf for groceries.

Before people get their panties in a bunch I still think Tesla will sell ~100k Gen II vehicles in 2020.

Model S plus 40k Taycan per year will obliterate Porsche Panamera,Audi A7, Mercedes CLS, and BMW 6 Series sales. And take a fair number of Audi A8, Mercedes S Class, and BMW 7 Series sales.

Taycan is also 2+2 seats, while Model S is 5+2. I do expect some cross-shopping and certainly every media outlet will compare the two, but I agree that it will do more damage among the German sports sedans and very likely Porsche`s own than in Model S sales.

The Audi e-tron GT (built on the Taycan platform) should more be a Model S competitor.

 

[gora321]

Mercedes-Benz will produce EV batteries in Poland

200€ millions from 20 billions by 2030. Impressive?

 

[Reciprocity]

They plan on doubling production. Yes, and I plan on doubling my muscle mass. When you want to double production you need to double sales first.

If the car starts at $80,000-90,000 before options, and it will, they won't sell 40,000 per year. But you will counter: Model S sells 50,000 cars per year at that price, so why can't Porsche. Except, Model S is a much more versatile car, that can be used as a family car and can be used to haul things around (I just transported two 2 meter long matrasses in mine). The Taycan is a 2+2, in which you probably don't want to sit in the back for more than half an hour. That is a limited market. I would be surprised if they can sustainably sell more than 10,000 to 15,000 per year.

An electric Panamera, Cayenne or Macan is another story. But it will be some years before those arrive. I hope they do though.

The better Porsche does, the better it is for Tesla. For one, most who buy the Porsche would never buy a Tesla because its not a Porsche. Some Tesla customers will buy a Porsche but more non-Tesla customers will compare the cars and many will opt for the much much more capable Model 3P or S. Right now, there is absolutely nothing to compare to. Ipace is somewhat comparable but its more 3 sized then X sized and is really a Model Y competitor. Porsche will go a long way to helping validate EVs as a normal car and not a special thing. They will no longer be just EVs but Cars. Tesla has done a great job of pushing that forward with model 3, but the comparison is missing, there is nothing to compare to. If Daimler, VW and Porsche come out with the Best EVs they can, they will be decent, but they will suffer from one or more of the following when compared to Tesla: Smaller, Slower, Less Efficient for Size, Slower Charging or bad charging network, bad degradation due to faster charging or lesser BMS and some will be Uglier though that trend seems to be changing.

Model 3 has already shown ICE cannot compete at really any price point, regardless of pack costs which are probably around $120/KWh right now and should be down to $100/KWh based on quotes from Elon by years end. This is mostly due to new pack machines from Ghromann but also scale of a completely operational 10k/w packs from GF1. Supply for good and cheap batteries will be very challenging for Porsche. Just look at the Ioniq which was a great car but starved of battery cells. Tesla and China are the only places massive amounts of cells are being made and China is not exporting them, so I wish Porsche all the luck in the world expanding to 40k or even making 20k profitably.

 

[W84M3]

Sub $300 on very decent volume.

Crazy.

 

[dhrivnak]

What are they charging more than? Certainly not gas.

Dan

Yes they are with some of the proposed pricing. However with the rollback to a 10% increase they should be under gasoline pricing.

 

[Reciprocity]

2011 Ghosn : We plan to make 150k Leafs per year.

It would be great if all these legacy OEMs made millions of EVs per year. But I'm not holding my breath.

They would if they could but they cant so they wont. They are missing a Gigafactory without which Tesla cant even sell more then 100k/Y. No Gigafactory, no supply and no profit.

 

[anthonyj]

Sub $300 on very decent volume.

Crazy.

Institutions are dumping it seems. I think we'll see $270s soon. Hope I'm wrong :/

 

[MP3Mike]

Yes they are with some of the proposed pricing. However with the rollback to a 10% increase they should be under gasoline pricing.

But it wasn't a 10% increase. It was a 33% increase followed by a 10% price cut, which works out to a 19.7% price increase.

 

[Unpilot]

297...my buy at 315 last week looks a little ...um under water!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Yes they are with some of the proposed pricing. However with the rollback to a 10% increase they should be under gasoline pricing.

Wow, in my neck of the woods Supercharging was still half the cost of gas, even with the price hike.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

297...my buy at 315 last week looks a little ...um under water!

Just like a kidney stone...

This too shall pass. lol

Dan

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I'm sorry, you kind of lost me here. Are you saying that you feel the Tesla Supercharger network does not set Tesla apart from other EVs?

Dan

In my opinion the Tesla Supercharger network adds value to the car and its one of the reasons we will probably buy a model 3 soon. However, tge lack of Chademo/CCS support is probably holding us back a bit. In our province there are 14 Supercharger locations. There are over 80 Chademo/CCS lications with 55 more under construction in the next two years, and many of those on more isolated interior roots. Our Tesla rep has not been able to give us any update on wether Chademo/CCS will ever be available now. But with the rapid buildout of Chademo/CCS in our province it is now looking like a Tesla Model 3 will be a travel restricted EV. We love the model 3 and haven’t made any decisions yet but there is lots to think about.

 

[Reciprocity]

Taycan is a direct competitor to the Model S.

If the standard Taycan ends up being a proper sedan with proper trunk then E Cross Turrisimo version will be a liftback sedan getting closer to a shooting brake with a liftgate.

911 is a 2+2 sports car. With the +2 being so tiny it is more a shelf for groceries.

Before people get their panties in a bunch I still think Tesla will sell ~100k Gen II vehicles in 2020.

Model S plus 40k Taycan per year will obliterate Porsche Panamera,Audi A7, Mercedes CLS, and BMW 6 Series sales. And take a fair number of Audi A8, Mercedes S Class, and BMW 7 Series sales.

Good points.. Taycant has a chance if it is a legit competitor to Model S, which I have my doubts, will decimate EU sales in a way that Tesla has decimated those sales in the US. Tesla has more market share in the Large Lux sedan market then the next 5-6 competitors combined. If the Taycant can do that Europe with Model 3 arriving in mass, I shudder think how quickly the German Government will need to step in to help VW acquire Daimler and BMW.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

In my opinion the Tesla Supercharger network adds value to the car and its one of the reasons we will probably buy a model 3 soon. However, tge lack of Chademo/CCS support is probably holding us back a bit. In our province there are 14 Supercharger locations. There are over 80 Chademo/CCS lications with 55 more under construction in the next two years, and many of those on more isolated interior roots. Our Tesla rep has not been able to give us any update on wether Chademo/CCS will ever be available now. But with the rapid buildout of Chademo/CCS in our province it is now looking like a Tesla Model 3 will be a travel restricted EV. We love the model 3 and haven’t made any decisions yet but there is lots to think about.

Two quick question.

1) Will you be charging at home?
2) What is your daily miles driven on average?

The answers to these two questions with determine how relevant the distance to the nearest Supercharger is.

Dan

 

[scaesare]

Virginia in 8th place, not too shabby, considering we offer zero state incentives, and the referral program is illegal in our state.

Indeed...

(shhh… My app actually shows I'm being scheduled for a referral reward shipment... it remains to be seen if I'll actually get it, however...)

 

[Anton W]

So many disagrees here, but apparently Tesla agrees with me that the Supercharger price increases are risky. Smart move Tesla

 

[elasalle]

Mercedes-Benz will produce EV batteries in Poland

200€ millions from 20 billions by 2030. Impressive?

The times when ICE incumbents and FUD used to say EV not good as ICE, not beneficial yada yada .. all gone. (denial phase is over).
Now all are making promises about tomorrow what Tesla is doing today.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

So many disagrees here, but apparently Tesla agrees with me that the Supercharger price increases are risky. Smart move Tesla

Why are you even here?