Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Also if anyone disagrees with this (@kuggerrand) go check the last carrier they just sent to China, .48 of a day, lowest carrier by far to date.

For China carriers:
1.12 avg days spent loading in Q1 vs 2.12 avg days spent loading in Q2.

Well, this is Q2 obviously. So, you are saying they are getting less efficient at loading cars? Or they had more delays or holdups with loading cars in Q2? Or the weather/tides weren't cooperating as well? Or that they are loading more cars per ship this quarter? Or the last carrier load was a partial load because they only wanted to load cars they thought they might be able to deliver in Q2?

I'm confused. What is your point?

 

[Spacemanspliff]

So if there are more drivers loading a ship, it loads faster. Is that logical enough for you?

Why would they only do this for Chinese ships on average and in just this quarter?

If there are less available slots due to other manufacturers cars already on the ship, hence less space for Tesla cars, the ship will load faster. Is that not logical as well to you?

Ok so you agree less cars per ship.

Unless you know all the factors that affect loading times, and/or are in possession of the ships manifest, any attempts to equate "loading times" from one Q to another is not possible. Logically speaking.

We’ve had 28 ships, I think it’s fine to compare a ship that spent .48 days with one that spent 3.12 and say the first ship is probably lighter by a lot.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Well, this is Q2 obviously. So, you are saying they are getting less efficient at loading cars? Or they had more delays or holdups with loading cars in Q2? Or the weather/tides weren't cooperating as well? Or that they are loading more cars per ship this quarter? Or the last carrier load was a partial load because they only wanted to load cars they thought they might be able to deliver in Q2?

I'm confused. What is your point?

I think they are loading less cars to China this quarter by a noticeable margin. Europe looks to be up a little this quarter.

It’s pretty simple, I think if they spent .48 of a day loading at SF there are less cars on that carrier than one that spent 3.12 days loading.

Weather/tides are not affecting load times at SF pier 80....

 

[bhtooefr]

OK, so I seem to have started this, but not with the intent that we'd have an ongoing discussion of the alt-right and anti-fascists in this thread, merely drawing a parallel between $TSLAQ and alt-right usage of Twitter, and something to watch for when interacting with $TSLAQ types.

We have a thread for market politics. Maybe go there, if you want to actually discuss the alt-right and antifa? You can hit + QUOTE under a post, and then go to that thread to insert quotes and reply to that. No need to start that in this thread.

 

[sundaymorning]

I noticed something strange. In the past, under every Tesla article on Yahoo, there were tons of comments from Tesla haters. Same for other websites. Now they all mysteriously disappeared. Were those all from bashing bots? or from a group of paid bashers that their master told them to hold? Now all comments seem to support Tesla.

The switch is so dramatic. I think this is a sign that the bashing was organized.

I always leave a comment, fighting FUD beyond this thread is part of my daily routine.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon Musk: Tesla's pickup will be 'a better truck than Ford F-150'

I really enjoyed reading (well, perverse enjoyment) the comments on FB from Motor Trend and Car and Driver. So many idiots.
"Who cares if it's fast, an RC car is fast too! (translation, I'm sad that these are faster)
"OH yeah, but can it tow 30k pounds for 700 miles like I can?" (no you can't)
"It won't be able to tow anything and will run out of power in 5 minutes hurrr lol" (my performance sedan has more torque than your V8 F150.)

People that spend their time hating a particular product live really sad lives. There are plenty of products I'd never buy, but I have a life and don't spend time whining about them online.

Help fight FUD, leave a comment.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think they are loading less cars to China this quarter by a noticeable margin. Europe looks to be up a little this quarter.

It’s pretty simple, I think if they spent .48 of a day loading at SF there are less cars on that carrier than one that spent 3.12 days loading.

Less cars to China this quarter? Even if there was a reliable and predictable correlation of load times to car volumes, then your own data contradicts your conclusion that they are loading less to China in Q2 vs. Q1:

For China carriers:
1.12 avg days spent loading in Q1 vs 2.12 avg days spent loading in Q2.

Those are your stats, not mine.

But I disagree that dock loading by longshoremen is predictable and consistent enough from day to day or month to month or ship to ship to draw meaningful conclusions from this. If it is, your conclusions are bass ackwards!

 

[TradingInvest]

I always leave a comment, fighting FUD beyond this thread is part of my daily routine.

In this case I suggest you pre-type some comments, save in a file, then copy paste to save your time.

 

[Creekstalker]

Floods, hurricanes and wildfires don't matter to Evangelicals. They will change their attitude about Climate change when one of their heroes tells them to change like their pastor at their local church. If you can believe that Jonah lived in the belly of a wave for three days, and the mother of God was a virgin you are by definition not rational.

Wow. Perhaps one of the most condescending things I've ever read here.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Less cars to China this quarter? Even if there was a reliable and predictable correlation of load times to car volumes, then your own data contradicts your conclusion that they are loading less to China in Q2 vs. Q1:



Those are your stats, not mine.

But I disagree that dock loading by longshoremen is predictable and consistent enough from day to day or month to month or ship to ship to draw meaningful conclusions from this. If it is, your conclusions are bass ackwards!

I misspoke in my earlier paragraph. It’s 2.12 in Q1 to 1.12 in Q2.

 

[StealthP3D]

In this case I suggest you pre-type some comments, save in a file, then copy paste to save your time.

A lot of the anti-Tesla comments are likely from bot-accounts originating in Russia. They probably vanished when YouTube identified the bot-accounts and deleted them.

Russia will be hurt badly by the transition away from fossil fuels because they have so few other exports in comparison. Exported Oil and gas are literally the lifeblood of their economy, especially that portion of their economy controlled by the oligarchs.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

The one where Penn Central went bankrupt? (Look it up.) And where GM went bankrupt?

If your point is anyone can go bankrupt, then sure - its unlikely though and even if that was possible, they'd be bailed, like GM was. VW is far more integral to the German economy than GM was to the US economy, or Penn Central for that matter.

I just think it being thrown around casually on this forum is a bit rich given how sensitive people are to anyone mentioning the possibility of Tesla going bankrupt. Any VW fanboy could list 800 reasons why VW is nothing remotely like Penn Central, or GM for that matter.

I do believe this. As a result of Dieselgate, most of the VW execs went to German prisons. The only guy who *wasn't* in on the crime was Diess, because he was the EV promoter so the other execs never told him about the diesel emissions cheating. The result is that Diess, the EV promoter, is now running VW. And so he's very serious about it. But you have to remember, they only *started* after Diess became CEO -- they simply weren't doing a damn thing before that. So Tesla is more than 10 years ahead -- that's a lot to catch up with.

We could learn a thing or two about putting execs who break the law in prison. Remind me again how many bankers went to jail after 2008.

 

[Joe F]

Ok so you agree less cars per ship.

No, I'm not. I'm saying you can not equate ANYTHING AT ALL with how long a ship is in port and attempt to arrive at how many TESLA cars were on any given ship. There are too many factors that you are not taking into consideration. As has been stated several times now. Unless you were on the dock, and counted each car as it drove up the ramp. I'm assuming that's not what you did, as you wouldn't be here on this quest.

As an aside, GF3 should soon be rolling cars off the line, so all this nonsense about how many cars were on which ship is just that, nonsense.

 

[Nocturnal]

Help fight FUD, leave a comment.

Oh, I do. I can't help myself.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

No, I'm not. I'm saying you can not equate ANYTHING AT ALL with how long a ship is in port and attempt to arrive at how many TESLA cars were on any given ship. There are too many factors that you are not taking into consideration. As has been stated several times now. Unless you were on the dock, and counted each car as it drove up the ramp. I'm assuming that's not what you did, as you wouldn't be here on this quest.

As an aside, GF3 should soon be rolling cars off the line, so all this nonsense about how many cars were on which ship is just that, nonsense.

Ok, agree to disagree.

 

[StealthP3D]

I misspoke in my earlier paragraph. It’s 2.12 in Q1 to 1.12 in Q2.

Haha. See how it's not wise to base complicated things on a simple number!

Maybe they just got more efficient as they loaded more (or reserved ships that load faster). If I was going to make any assumptions, and I'm not willing to do that here, I would assume they increased the loading efficiency. Or changed the methodology used to determine the start and finish of loading. Or maybe the earlier carriers were not set up very well to carry cars.

But you are really stretching to draw specific inferences about demand in China from that number. Too many uncontrolled variables. Better to spend your time looking at metrics that matter.

I imagine the load time metrics were compiled by someone sitting at a computer with too much time and worry on their hands!

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Oh, I do. I can't help myself.

Same - and I never go back to check responses. Fire in the hole!

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Haha. See how it's not wise to base complicated things on a simple number!

Maybe they just got more efficient as they loaded more (or reserved ships that load faster). If I was going to make any assumptions, and I'm not willing to do that here, I would assume they increased the loading efficiency. Or changed the methodology used to determine the start and finish of loading. Or maybe the earlier carriers were not set up very well to carry cars.

But you are really stretching to draw specific inferences about demand in China from that number. Too many uncontrolled variables. Better to spend your time looking at metrics that matter.

I imagine the load time metrics were compiled by someone sitting at a computer with too much time and worry on their hands!

Sure but then I’d question why Tesla isn’t using this same efficient method on the European carriers and those times are getting longer...

There’s only so many cars you can load in .48 of a day, to 1 day, to 1.5 days, to 3 days, etc.

And at that we can choose to agree to disagree on this.

 

[Intl Professor]

I really do not see any evidence that "days spent loading" is an accurate correlate to "number of cars loaded". Prove me wrong. Isn't it possible that they got more efficient at loading cars?!?

Advance summon???

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm gonna throw in a bit of optimism here. People are getting advanced summons I believe - can't confirm but 2019.20.1 had 51 downloads today on TeslaFi, must have EAP for the feature so I've read. Early beta had it in 2019.20 as well.

So let's say the talk in the conf call is a lot about FSD progress while Tesla's are cruizin' parking lots ALL OVER THE US. People will freak out... H-e-ll-o!