Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Sure but then I’d question why Tesla isn’t using this same efficient method on the European carriers and those times are getting longer...

There’s only so many cars you can load in .48 of a day, to 1 day, to 1.5 days, to 3 days, etc.

And at that we can choose to agree to disagree on this.

I agree there is an upper limit to how fast a ship can be loaded. I disagree that ship loading is predictable and consistent and that upper limit was being consistently hit during Q1 (or during any quarter). I guess when the official numbers are reported we whether soft demand resulted in poor sales in China. There are better ways to estimate demand in China than how long the ships took to load.

 

[Fact Checking]

Sure but then I’d question why Tesla isn’t using this same efficient method on the European carriers and those times are getting longer...

There’s only so many cars you can load in .48 of a day, to 1 day, to 1.5 days, to 3 days, etc.

While I agree with @StealthP3D that there's a lot of variables to ship loading time - the communications behavior of Tesla China does suggest that they possibly need more buyers in Q2:

• Shanghai GF3 Model 3 price and timing unveil was a China demand lever that they decided to pull in Q2. They could have delayed this to Q3 if all units were spoken for.
  
• The whole free Beijing license plates and zero interest rate leasing wording suggested a Q2 push.
• Navigate on Autopilot just got released for China. The timing might be accidental, but it's also a demand lever.
• We also had this 'leak' from NIO (which I suspect was deliberate) that suggested weaker than Q2'18 Tesla S/X sales. Those stats are normally not public, but NIO apparently got access to them.
• Not sure whether China got any Ravens at all - I assume they didn't.

So after Q1 I think it's prudent to not assume perfect execution in every geographical region.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

How could it have landed on Mars? Needs the Space X cold-thruster package...

Could have picked it up with a BFR and landed it. Or maybe just got "lucky".

 

[StealthP3D]

So after Q1 I think it's prudent to not assume perfect execution in every geographical region.

I would assume execution is basically never going to perfect in every region. But I like the kind of analysis and thinking your three points highlight as opposed to spending even a minute trying to count cars shipped based upon loading times. Utterly meaningless when we have so many other clues to go on.

Having said that, doesn't the timing of the release of Navigate on AutoPilot in China have more to do with getting Chinese government approval than any timing considerations at Tesla? In other words, this is the kind of thing Tesla would release as soon as it was ready and approved?

 

[neroden]

OT

When did TMC turn into a Christian-bashing website?
BTW, Revelation 11:18 says that God "will bring to ruin those RUINING the earth". How does that fit in with your obvious mis-information?

He wasn't bashing Christians, he was bashing the particular variety who follow the right-wing political preachers. The preachers who keep asking their parishoners to contribute money, use it to build mansions, and use the money and their pulpit interfere in politics (whatever happened to "render onto Caesar what is Caesar's?"). Things which to me, as a non-Christian reader of the Bible, look pretty un-Christian. But these preachers like Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson CALL themselves Christian. These are the same dudes who claim that humans were given dominion over the earth and therefore have the right to trample and despoil it, and that God will fix everything. They generally also claim that declaring yourself "born again" is enough to excuse all manner of vile mortal sins. Most of them have been involved in either sexual abuse scandals, stealing from their churchgoers, or both. Many of them follow the "prosperity gospel", the very strange idea that rich people are the elect who have been chosen by God to go to heaven and that being poor means you are going to hell. There was a book about the American type of corrupt, hypocritical Christian preacher written back in the 1920s -- Elmer Gantry. The previous poster was bashing people who follow *them*.

I guess anyone can call themselves Christian.

 

[EVNow]

Sales numbers also have to do with rebates from BC.
We had the extra $5000 incentive from BC gov and it feels like it's now or never before the incentive funds runs out. One person I referred already cancelled their order, maybe it was due to hype or bad quality.

I calculated an overall annual saving of only $2000.

BC EV sales have always been an enigma to me. Vancouver is a Seattle sized city, fairly similar in a lot of ways. Yet the BC sales have been much lower than Washington's, even though gas is costlier there. One reason ofcourse was the federal ax credit we had. So, it would be interesting to see how much BC EV sales improve now that they have better incentives than us.

 

[schonelucht]

Maybe they just got more efficient as they loaded more (or reserved ships that load faster). If I was going to make any assumptions, and I'm not willing to do that here, I would assume they increased the loading efficiency. Or changed the methodology used to determine the start and finish of loading. Or maybe the earlier carriers were not set up very well to carry cars.

It’s RoRo. It’s about as likely as landing a returning rocket upright that they’d suddenly find a way to double loading efficiency.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

While I agree with @StealthP3D that there's a lot of variables to ship loading time - the communications behavior of Tesla China does suggest that they possibly need more buyers in Q2:

• Shanghai GF3 Model 3 price and timing unveil was a China demand lever that they decided to pull in Q2. They could have delayed this to Q3 if all units were spoken for.
  
• The whole free Beijing license plates and zero interest rate leasing wording suggested a Q2 push.
• Navigate on Autopilot just got released for China. The timing might be accidental, but it's also a demand lever.
• We also had this 'leak' from NIO (which I suspect was deliberate) that suggested weaker than Q2'18 Tesla S/X sales. Those stats are normally not public, but NIO apparently got access to them.
• Not sure whether China got any Ravens at all - I assume they didn't.

So after Q1 I think it's prudent to not assume perfect execution in every geographical region.

And there was the move to include Autopilot for free in China. It makes sense: as GF3 was rapidly taking shape the order stream likely decreased. After Q4 the flood gates will open up, and until then North America and Europe will have to do the hard work. Which they are doing pretty well, considering that a record quarter is possible.

 

[neroden]

If you don’t mind answering, what will you do if Tesla appreciates faster than your other investments such that it becomes 60%, then 70%... of your portfolio? Nice problem to worry about, right?

Right now, I'll slowly sell small amounts of TSLA on the way up, starting around $360. I see more cash needs in the next few years. :-( Then I won't have to sell other stuff, which would be nice.

I'll probably sell more puts against the cash.

If the cash needs go away, I'll let it sit until I see a better investment.

 

[dc_h]

‘Unwinding the wave’ is not happening like I expected. Instead of an extra ship in the last month of the quarter, it seems all ships for this quarter have already left San Francisco.The last ship heading towards EU left 3 days earlier than in Q1.
I wonder why in Q2 the first EU ship only departed the 17th of the first month? At a production rate of 1000/day, Tesla only needs 4 days of production to fill the first ship. Even if Tesla keeps producing USA cars untill 30/6, we should see a ship leave for Europe at the latest at the end of the first week of Q3, if not, not a lot of wave unwinding will happen.
BTW: The Benelux FB groups are currently flooded with pictures of proud people taking delivery of their Model 3.

Sounds like at least one more ship for Q2 to Europe or Australia. I’d guess three more ships, so still at least 10k in transit, but deliveries way up.

 

[EVNow]

Maybe they just got more efficient as they loaded more (or reserved ships that load faster).

I posted this in the Financial thread. The correct question is not why China bound vessels are loading so fast, but why are EU vessels loading so slow. The can load/unload at 400/hour. So, in 10 hours they can do 4k cars. There is no reason a ship should dock for more than a day.

Here is an interesting article I found (from 2012).

Around the World With 5,500 Cars

NYK tries to limit the time its ships stay in port to 24 hours, avoiding overtime and berthing fees of $3,000 or more a day.
...
The next morning, about 120 stevedores arrived at 7 a.m. to begin driving nearly 3,000 cars to their parking spots.
...
...stevedores were removing 450 cars an hour, about 50 cars more than usual. The ship, he said, stood a good chance of leaving, as hoped, by 6 p.m.
​

Good question would be, why are EU ships taking so long to leave. Apparently takes just a working day to unload 3,000 cars @ 400/hour. I expect loading to take roughly the same amount time.​

 

[neroden]

It’s RoRo. It’s about as likely as landing a returning rocket upright that they’d suddenly find a way to double loading efficiency.

I... would not have expected Tesla to be doing an efficient job with the queuing *or* tiedown processes when they started.

 

[dqd88]

Q2 numbers are pretty much set at 7k now for China* unless there’s inventory in China , with an additional 1k+/- to Japan.

To me its more of a question for Q3, you are looking at 10,072 3’s sent to China in Q1 versus maybe 4,000 in Q2. If you are the biggest bull in the world that’s got to make you question Chinese demand going forward into Q3, which is why I asked the question to Mars Emperor about how he views the Tesla brand in China

*edit this assumes there’s no inventory. If there’s inventory it still implies weaker sales of higher end margin to China.

I am assuming sales will slow because some consumers will wait for the China-made 3. I think is natural/normal and not a concern; hopefully they will divert said capacity to other markets that are currently underserved.

 

[EVNow]

I... would not have expected Tesla to be doing an efficient job with the queuing *or* tiedown processes when they started.

I don't think Tesla does any of that. I guess its all handled by the shipping company. Its possible crew are somewhat inexperienced at loading cars - after all not many ship cars from SFO - and they are getting better now. I doubt it. Anyway, as I noted above, there is serious inefficiency w.r.t. EU ships for some reason.

ps : Oh, I get it now. Its those pesky handles on 3. The cars must also be getting auto locked !

 

[Doggydogworld]

I... would not have expected Tesla to be doing an efficient job with the queuing *or* tiedown processes when they started.

Tesla doesn't load the cars and tie them down.

Maybe dockworkers needed a full quarter to learn how to properly drive a BEV

 

[neroden]

Someone who wants to stand on the shoulders of others is someone who wants to be in the limelight without having done any of the work. That’s my definition anyway.

Oh. So you're just using entirely the wrong definition.

Here's the most famous citation:

"If I have seen further [than Robert Hooke, to whom he was writing] it is by standing on the sho[ u ]lders of giants" -- Isaac Newton 1675

More information is available at Wikipedia:
Standing on the shoulders of giants - Wikipedia

 

[Spacemanspliff]

I am assuming sales will slow because some consumers will wait for the China-made 3. I think is natural/normal and not a concern; hopefully they will divert said capacity to other markets that are currently underserved.

Yea but GF3 only applies to the SR+/SR correct? We should still see a steady demand rate for the LR versions.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I do believe this. As a result of Dieselgate, most of the VW execs went to German prisons. The only guy who *wasn't* in on the crime was Diess, because he was the EV promoter so the other execs never told him about the diesel emissions cheating. The result is that Diess, the EV promoter, is now running VW. And so he's very serious about it. But you have to remember, they only *started* after Diess became CEO -- they simply weren't doing a damn thing before that. So Tesla is more than 10 years ahead -- that's a lot to catch up with.

I hadn't really thought about this before. I wonder if Diess feels alone in trying to turn the VW ship around. It's like nearly the entire command structure disappeared overnight, and the only one left in the command structure was the guy running the IT department, who got a field promotion to the top, so nobody will take him seriously even though he's trying his best to make the right calls. Almost the entire internal structure of the company will be resisting any commands he makes to turn the ship around.I wish him the best of luck and the cunning to see the inevitable back stabbing in time to fend it off. He probably can't make all the decisions he wants to make because if he did he'd find himself either out of a job or his efforts internally sabotaged. He'll have to make lots of small changes while constantly distracting the opponents to his vision so that he can turn the boat in fits and starts, rather than simply hauling the wheel over in a hard turn. He won't be truly alone, if nothing else likely those in the EV group would back him, but he can't simply replace everyone around him with those people because he'll need them where they are, too.

 

[KSilver2000]

Elon stated it would be limited to 10k.

You missed the important part of that quote. He said it would be limited to 10,000 per year. At that production volume and a supposed price of $200,000 after the Founder’s price of $250,000, I would argue they will have much more supply than demand.
In a way though, I guess you can technically argue that would be a limited production.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Good phrase! "Peak finance"

I have been trying for years to figure out when "peak oil finance" will happen. It is perplexing to me because oil discoveries flatlined back in 2008 -- money spent on oil exploration has been a net loss since then. And yet the money KEEPS FLOWING. I don't understand the psychology of the oil financiers, and I don't know how to tell when they're actually going to stop throwing their money down holes in the ground. (If you have further thoughts on this please go over to the "Shorting Oil" thread!)

Hmm, where have we seen that behavior before... cough TSLA shorts cough