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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Good to know. This matches my expectation. Target is August, which means they'll probaly be crawling the first car out in September. By December, we are likely to see serious production.
I’m on the FSD skeptic spectrum but this post gave me a sad “what if?” thought...
Like taxis governments will find a way to get a piece of the pie. Probably in the form of super expensive operator permits. Likely pricing out individuals.
Since the actual tweets weren't linked... to save others having to type up the twitter addresses
Alex Oha on Twitter
Dennis Chang on Twitter
Alex Oha on Twitter
Dennis Chang on Twitter
Short term is bright. Like I said before, consumers are watching YouTube videos and other internet content of people that own Teslas or are influencers taking about Tesla as “tech” and loving it.
The only people watching CNBC are retail investors and hedge funds.
Consumers don’t care about CNBC, but seemingly traders and hedge funds do.
Two different worlds. Two different audiences.
The desire is strong with consumers, demand is strong really strong with younger generations that can’t afford them yet. Wall Street exploits the fear in such an exponential growth environment between quarterly predictions that inevitably are going to miss in either direction.
The added element is Tesla is the fastest growing new automaker in the global market place, while the rest are averaging negative sales growth and looking at ways to consolidate. This is the same in the utility world where solar and batteries are forcing utility commissions to reconsider multi-decade fossil fuel capacity projects and utilities how to avoid stranded fossil fuel assets on the ledger in the near future. Remember, Tesla built the biggest battery in the world in 90 days saving the south austrailian utility millions of dollars within the first 6 months where a fossil fuel equivalent would’ve taken years to build.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
# of Taxis are limited because Taxi operators lobbied the government.
dqd88
Member
i tried but couldn’t get through more than 30 seconds of the video. i just don’t have that kind of patience...all i noticed was,
he’s driving in the rain, not paying attention because he’s recording a youtube video (implying he has an audience??, i wonder who they must be?)
putting ~50% of his life $ on the line shorting tesla (i feel bad for the user of that child seat in the back of the car).
i mean...unles that’s some kinda of parody, what an epic a$$hole of a person that guy is. lol. stay clear of that goof youtubers..do yourself that favor
So out of curiosity I checked again this eventing, and those "new pre-Raven Model S inventory" numbers are down to 139 Europe, 41 Asia-Pacific, 56 Canada, and 316 US.
I know there may be a "hidden inventory" which will come onto Tesla's website after this is cleared, but at this rate the visible inventory *will* be almost cleared by the end of Q2.
Most of the Asia-Pacific cars are actually 100Ds located in Dubai and will probably have to be moved somewhere else in order to sell them, however. I suspect Dubai has very few buyers who want "last year's model". The rest are New Zealand 75Ds.
The visible US Model S inventory is, interestingly, nearly all 100D with just a smattering of others (some of which may be "problem cars" which got rejected repeatedly). The EU inventory, by contrast, is almost all 75D, with the exception of the UK inventory, which is about half 100D and half 75D. This indicates three different sales patterns. It would probably make sense, if homologation allows, to ship all the pre-Raven Dubai cars (which are 100Ds) to continental Europe.
Given the vagaries of production ramp-ups, I am NOT willing to make a guess with that level of detail.
Largely due to the situation before the medallion system, with taxis cluttering up the streets and none of the taxi operators making any money, which was leading to everyone leaving the taxi business and no taxis. That sort of "too many taxis this year, no taxis next year" situation sucks for everyone. Of course, they eventually went too far and the number of taxis was rationed *too* tightly.
dqd88
Member
No one here has a crystal ball. I already tried asking
My hunch is that we'll trend upward until Q2 results are released. I think the overall sentiment that sales are decent and progress is happening will lift the stock. But anything could happen.
dqd88
Member
Do we know where all China made cars will be delivered to? I'm assuming Korea and Japan. How about Australia and New Zealand?China is difficult to estimate, it’s always been a black box.
The FUD here is also heavy, but not due to short sellers. Most people are just misinformed. So many articles are written out of context. After all, negative sugar gets more clicks, whether it’s written by media or fame-seeking individuals.
I think many were holding out for Model 3 from Giga 3, hoping for a killer price. Now that the not-so-low pricing of that Model 3 has been announced, some are willing to pull the trigger on imported versions. From a recent visit I paid to the biggest Tesla store in Shanghai, I can tell the traffic was quite good despite it being a working day afternoon.
I am cautions about short term though, if sales had been great, there would not have been so many promotions: free Autopilot in February, free FSD in May, 0 interest in June. (Note that SR+ is not included, actually no SR+ has been delivered as of yet)
I’m not too thrilled about the number of Model 3 I saw in Shanghai.
Maybe I need to go out more?
Long term I am optimistic.
- The government wants Tesla to be a success here. This government f**ks. They get whatever they want, at least domestically. (Many Times I am not happy about their decisions, but I fully support their determination in pushing EV adoption, still I don’t think Chinese EV companies or automotive companies as a whole can innovate much, the education system is just way too bad)
- The policies announced a few days ago are also in favor of EVs in general.
- Tesla is just superior, pure and simple, great products will sell.
- There are enough affluent Chinese people who can afford a Tesla.
- The 328K RMB pricing has room to wiggle (especially since Tesla does not include the 27.8K RMB Autopilot). I personally think it’s a nice balance right now I’m spite of some potential buyers moaning. Most will come around, realizing the actual value.
- The more Tesla on the road, the better information normal people will get. Like around the world, so many still think Tesla is super expensive, prone to spontaneous combustion...
- People have low expectations for FSD, even the Tesla sales rep who test drove with me doesn’t think it’s a big deal. She also said smart summon is risky in China due to people causing fake accidents in front of your cars. Anyway, I think Tesla will blow people’s mind with true full self driving.
Looking forward to 2020 H1.
I'd also like to see Tesla enter Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, supplied by GF3.
Why do people try to inflate Elon's estimate?
He said 1-2k/week. He wants to be cautious. If you expect more, you might end up being disappointed.
Btw, Fred started rumor on Tesla software-locking SRs into actually promised SR specs soon.
I think that's good news if true. After multiple people reporting that their SRs are delivered as unlocked SR+, I was worried that people who actually want SR+ would start ordering SRs to save money, since there was no difference.
Looks like this will be straightened out.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
~20% is useful for all of us to remember and relay.
Yep, nothing produced in the last week or two should make it to NA consumer. But it is just so tempting...for certain CEOs.
What's taking so long? Should have built it in China....
Did those guys have anything to say about standing on the shoulders of the Chinese?
anthonyj
Stonks
Big volume on the upside move. Institutions are accumulating. $180 is very possible but will be bought up. Just start dipping your toes here at $204. Great price and it’s the same quality, headache inducing stock that you know and love. Just don’t use margarine. It’s bad for you
Rumor has it a few may ship to China.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, and I kinda expect the exact opposite. This is EXACTLY the situation that SHOULD be 'gamed' by autopilot developers (as Elon choose NOT to do for a Coast-2-Coast autonomous drive).
Programmers can hard code shortcuts into the specific tasks of driving onto the car carriers from the well-known, limited-public-access, and security-patrolled assembly area.
It's the low hanging fruit for FSD and a big time/labor saver, we've discussed here before.
Cheers!
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