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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Short term is bright. Like I said before, consumers are watching YouTube videos and other internet content of people that own Teslas or are influencers taking about Tesla as “tech” and loving it.

The only people watching CNBC are retail investors and hedge funds.

Consumers don’t care about CNBC, but seemingly traders and hedge funds do.

Two different worlds. Two different audiences.

The desire is strong with consumers, demand is strong really strong with younger generations that can’t afford them yet. Wall Street exploits the fear in such an exponential growth environment between quarterly predictions that inevitably are going to miss in either direction.

The added element is Tesla is the fastest growing new automaker in the global market place, while the rest are averaging negative sales growth and looking at ways to consolidate. This is the same in the utility world where solar and batteries are forcing utility commissions to reconsider multi-decade fossil fuel capacity projects and utilities how to avoid stranded fossil fuel assets on the ledger in the near future. Remember, Tesla built the biggest battery in the world in 90 days saving the south austrailian utility millions of dollars within the first 6 months where a fossil fuel equivalent would’ve taken years to build.

Yet TSLA faded for most of the last two days. Someone is mighty dumb or powerful.

No one here has a crystal ball. I already tried asking :)

Dammit.

Big volume on the upside move. Institutions are accumulating. $180 is very possible but will be bought up. Just start dipping your toes here at $204. Great price and it’s the same quality, headache inducing stock that you know and love. Just don’t use margarine. It’s bad for you

Okay, I guess I'll keep buying at low 200s, but keep some dry powder. FUDsters will have more months to concoct donkey merde, and Elon might freebase nutmeg with Joe Rogan, just to piss off the SEC. Thanks all.
 
Can you look into what my dad found to be the life expectancy of an EV is in China? I know a few years back the Chinese government require all 10 year old ICE cars to be "bao fai" (recycled/crushed). My dad saw 8 years for EV for the city of Shanghai but didn't capture a date for that policy. What is the currently policy on this matter in regards to ICEs and EVs?

The rules made in 1997 required private vehicles to be "bao fei"-ed after 10 years.
Then in 2000, it was extended to 15 years, as the quality of vehicles kept improving.
Then in 2006, there was no more mandatory requirement, as long as a vehicle can pass regular (yearly) safety standard test.

There is no specific rule regarding EV, so it should be the same for all private vehicles, which makes sense.
And I doubt there will be any special limitation set on EV by the Chinese government.
 
So out of curiosity I checked again this eventing, and those "new pre-Raven Model S inventory" numbers are down to 139 Europe, 41 Asia-Pacific, 56 Canada, and 316 US.

I know there may be a "hidden inventory" which will come onto Tesla's website after this is cleared, but at this rate the visible inventory *will* be almost cleared by the end of Q2.

Most of the Asia-Pacific cars are actually 100Ds located in Dubai and will probably have to be moved somewhere else in order to sell them, however. I suspect Dubai has very few buyers who want "last year's model". The rest are New Zealand 75Ds.

The visible US Model S inventory is, interestingly, nearly all 100D with just a smattering of others (some of which may be "problem cars" which got rejected repeatedly). The EU inventory, by contrast, is almost all 75D, with the exception of the UK inventory, which is about half 100D and half 75D. This indicates three different sales patterns. It would probably make sense, if homologation allows, to ship all the pre-Raven Dubai cars (which are 100Ds) to continental Europe.

This site paints another picture, with still 897 Model S being available in Europe, mainly in Norway and The Netherlands (Model X stock is much lower):

Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car

Which is the correct information?
 
Elon’s over Mexico. Teslaquila secured.
B4D6C459-7175-4B30-810B-74BB74B2DF71.jpeg
 
This site paints another picture, with still 897 Model S being available in Europe, mainly in Norway and The Netherlands (Model X stock is much lower):

Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car

Which is the correct information?
Yesterday the layout of the available cars page changed in Belgium. Today the radio button for the Model 3 appeared, showing hundreds of available cars. While the S/X cars are from Belgium, the 3s are from all over Europe.

It looks like Tesla wants to sell all possible stock, including Model 3, before the end of the quarter.
 
Only 3000 vehicles affected. So they’ve got that going for them...

They sold 3000? How'd they find that many idiots with mid 6 figures to spend on a car?

Slower, more expensive, less efficient than a Model 3.
Slower, more expensive and less storage than a Model S.
Far less passenger capacity, far less storage, far less towing than a Model X.

Let's not even discuss the Y.
 
$251,136,000 in net profit. Stupendously unlikely. Expect the S&P 500 addition after Q1 next year.

Primarily depends on S/X sales and production I suspect, with a few wildcards:
  • Note how Tesla didn't include too many ZEV credits in Q3, Q4 and even Q1 - while there are reports of them being sold to GM and FCA.
  • Tesla Energy and storage in particular is still artificially held back by cell supply - once that limit is lifted we could see pent up demand being filled at good margins.
  • Smart Summon would allow the recognition of more deferred revenue.
So if we broadly expect about break even or a small GAAP loss based on Q1 even if they meet 90k deliveries, Tesla does appear to have some GAAP income "dry powder" to push Q2 beyond $251m profits, which would make the ~40 million shares short who want to buy to cover compete with passive index funds and a broader group of investors who are buying due to S&P 500 inclusion.

Probability of TSLA S&P 500 inclusion in August-September is still significantly lower than 50% I guess - the deliveries report due in 3 weeks could refine this estimate.
 
Primarily depends on S/X sales and production I suspect, with a few wildcards:
  • Note how Tesla didn't include too many ZEV credits in Q3, Q4 and even Q1 - while there are reports of them being sold to GM and FCA.
  • Tesla Energy and storage in particular is still artificially held back by cell supply - once that limit is lifted we could see pent up demand being filled at good margins.
  • Smart Summon would allow the recognition of more deferred revenue.
So if we broadly expect about break even or a small GAAP loss based on Q1 even if they meet 90k deliveries, Tesla does appear to have some GAAP income "dry powder" to push Q1 beyond $251m profits, which would make the ~40 million shares short who want to buy to cover compete with passive index funds and a broader group of investors who are buying due to S&P 500 inclusion.

Probability of TSLA S&P 500 inclusion in August-September is still significantly lower than 50% I guess - the deliveries report due in 3 weeks could refine this estimate.
Curious - where does the FSD revenue go/how does it get recognized/categorized?

'Tesla does appear to have some GAAP income "dry powder" to push Q1 beyond $251m profits'
You mean Q2?
 
If the world cares about pollution then we wouldn't have CO2 problems in the first place.

This is false - "the world", down to our average budget constrained consumers, very much cares about pollution: air pollution, water pollution, radioactive pollution, sound pollution and even ordinary litter on streets are hot topics people care about - because those can be directly experienced first hand. There's even an acronym for the phenomenon and its negative effects on industrial expansion: NIMBY, Not In My Back Yard.

The problem with CO₂ is that it is an odorless and colorless gas that is damaging even in very small concentrations, and that the damage is delayed. So the 'back yard' is our atmosphere, and this delayed effect makes it easy to lie about CO₂ in an effort to sell CO₂ polluting products for profits without paying for the inevitable damage clean-up down the road...

What's done is done and we have already passed the tipping point.

There's no binary 'tipping point' - our only planet's climate is an incredibly complex machinery that is only partly understood. But one thing we know for sure: doubling the size of its planetary scale natural heat mirror in the last 200 years (CO₂ levels going from 200 ppm to 400+ ppm today) has already warmed up the planet and will cause more warming.

That thickening the planet's heat mirror would warm it was already obvious and clear 100+ years ago, to quote a 1912 newspaper article:
dotclimate1912-blog480-v2.jpg


There's no argument about this in the scientific community, and every single 'skeptical' argument you've seen trying to cast doubt on the fact that a double size heat mirror is warming the planet is a lie.

To quote a secret, recently acquired and published Exxon Mobil chart from 1982, 37 years ago their scientists predicted rising CO₂ levels to about 415 ppm and raise temperatures by about +0.9°C in 2019:


This year we crossed both milestones - remarkably accurate prediction by the oil industry, hidden from the public.

But we don't know exactly how it's going to go down from now on, there's wide error bars, high levels of uncertainty, and the levels of degree of our "global scorching" of our only habitable planet matter: 2°C or 3°C makes a huge economic difference, 3°C or 7°C makes a catastrophic difference.

CO₂ pollution is also largely reversible if we ignore acidification of the oceans and the probably inevitable melting of all ice: about ~2.5% of atmospheric CO₂ is absorbed by the oceans every year. I.e. absent human emissions the natural rate of CO₂ reduction would be an about 10 ppm reduction every year, until it gets closer to the long term historic equilibrium of ~200 ppm.

Put differently: human industry emits about +12 ppm worth of CO₂ every year, while natural processes are reducing it by about -10 ppm. If only we reduce emissions (very broadly) to below 10 ppm we'll have stopped and even reversed the build-up of the planetary scale heat mirror.

So yes, it's not too late, yes, every little bit helps, and yes, the sooner we fix CO₂ emissions the lower the body count gets: 1 billion deaths or only 100 million deaths from global warming, it makes a big difference to 900 million people and the rest of the planet who cares about them ...
 
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They sold 3000? How'd they find that many idiots with mid 6 figures to spend on a car?

Slower, more expensive, less efficient than a Model 3.
Slower, more expensive and less storage than a Model S.
Far less passenger capacity, far less storage, far less towing than a Model X.

Let's not even discuss the Y.

They are not idiots. They have bought a perfectly reasonable car. Not everybody care about top speed. And the Jaguar got style. And it's easier to park than the wide American cars. And you can use a roof rack.

So I'm glad people buy the i-Pace. It's good for the environment. And much nicer to drive behind than the e-Pace or XJ.
 

Thanks, but please, please, please aways include the URL to the Tweet, makes it a lot easier to go share it. Cheers.

In other news - Brussels to Paris and back yesterday, in stormy conditions, 98% on NoA, which was great.

Aside the "you are entering a construction zone" message as reported higher in the thread, I also got this, which I assume is because GPS is lost in the tunnel? NoA disengaged to Autosteer, then re-engaged itself after.

upload_2019-6-8_11-15-50.png


Another new one (for me) "Poor weather detected":

upload_2019-6-8_11-14-51.png