Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

It’s better enough that this guy is now paying Tesla $100/month starting June 13. Likely in perpetuity.

The FSD free trial worked on me. I think it will work on others as well. I’m excited to see the take rate as this thing goes global.

Prior to V12, FSD was more trouble than it was worth for me (literally only good for investment research). But I have seen a 5-10x reduction in interventions between 12/23 when I last subscribed to now. That’s pretty exciting to me.

I actually don’t see living without FSD going forward. Like my phone data plan or Netflix…I could live without it; but likely I’ll choose not to.

If that does come to fruition, I’m sure we’ll see it in the quarterly financials.

However considering that Elon is always harping on about price being the #1 barrier for people who want but don’t have Teslas, I’m dubious that a $100/month software option will be a big generator across the fleet of 3s and Ys marketed towards people who want to eliminate expenses like vehicle maintenance and gas.

 

[Linkmeup]

Tesla launches Powerwall 3 in UK & Germany - Energy Storage

Almost ten years after the "Powerwall 1," Tesla has launched its home battery system "Powerwall 3" in the United Kingdom and Germany.

www.ess-news.com

Well, Powerwall 3 is now in Germany and UK. From the article:

"In the event of a power failure in Europe, the inverter can deliver between 3.68 and 11.04 kilowatts."

 

[sunwarriors]

It’s better enough that this guy is now paying Tesla $100/month starting June 13. Likely in perpetuity.

The FSD free trial worked on me. I think it will work on others as well. I’m excited to see the take rate as this thing goes global.

Prior to V12, FSD was more trouble than it was worth for me (literally only good for investment research). But I have seen a 5-10x reduction in interventions between 12/23 when I last subscribed to now. That’s pretty exciting to me.

I actually don’t see living without FSD going forward. Like my phone data plan or Netflix…I could live without it; but likely I’ll choose not to.

This is only true for folks who drive often to make it worth their while. Home many miles do you drive annually if you don't mind sharing?

It's still another $1200/year, maybe $6000 more for the longer term life of the car. This also doesn't include people who already paid for FSD (obviously) or folks who upgraded from autopilot to FSD (I think it was $2k?) or folks who were allowed or transfer FSD.

I'd agree with the other poster that if someone stretched just to get into a Tesla and money was tighter, $100/month could be all their subscription plans combined already.

I think if/when the numbers of FSD are good, Tesla would release them. Until then, it's probably not much to write home about.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I am sure that will change with the tax credit now.

The U.S. tax credit will change the Model 3 sales trend line in China?

 

[Knightshade]

I am sure that will change with the tax credit now.

That specific discussion was about Model 3 sales in China.

So I'm sure the US tax credit won't change that.

Here in the US is a different story for 2 reasons:

Q1 Model 3 production was very very very low because Freemont fumbled the refresh (much as they did the S/X refresh a few years ago) and took a lot longer than China to get production up to speed again-- so Q2 numbers should be significantly better simply because cars actually exist to deliver. IIRC Troy estimated the lack of US-built 3s cost Tesla a good 30k units in Q1 deliveries.

and

Q3 numbers are where you'll see most of the bump from LR AWD getting the $7500 credit back


In the US the trend line (after looking horrendous in Q1 due to reason 1 above) should look comparatively great in Q2 and Q3 in a QoQ sense... YoY would be the more interesting comparison though to see the impact of a refreshed model has vs the old one (which also got the $7500 credit last year)

 

[UkNorthampton]

Indeed. I wont clutter the thread with a photo, but I'm here in the garden in the UK looking right at my stone tile roof that was built in 1750. Its not exactly pristine, but its still there!

1750 is a new-build house. New-fangled tiles! Not a real house unless thatched. /s

 

[GOVA]

Model 3 performance - German review and autobahn drive.

 

[UkNorthampton]

"Elon's gone too far this time" - TslaQ /s

Benefit of Tesla writing their own software (assuming Tesla don't use this software)

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Tesla launches Powerwall 3 in UK & Germany - Energy Storage

Almost ten years after the "Powerwall 1," Tesla has launched its home battery system "Powerwall 3" in the United Kingdom and Germany.

www.ess-news.com

Well, Powerwall 3 is now in Germany and UK. From the article:

"In the event of a power failure in Europe, the inverter can deliver between 3.68 and 11.04 kilowatts."

All the mainstream solar you tubers in the UK are raving about it: "Setting the new standard for the industry". The high power output and 3 integrated MPPT solar controllers make it transformational.

 

[FireMedic]

This is only true for folks who drive often to make it worth their while. Home many miles do you drive annually if you don't mind sharing?

It's still another $1200/year, maybe $6000 more for the longer term life of the car. This also doesn't include people who already paid for FSD (obviously) or folks who upgraded from autopilot to FSD (I think it was $2k?) or folks who were allowed or transfer FSD.

I'd agree with the other poster that if someone stretched just to get into a Tesla and money was tighter, $100/month could be all their subscription plans combined already.

I think if/when the numbers of FSD are good, Tesla would release them. Until then, it's probably not much to write home about.

That’s a fair point. We have it on a model X from 2020 with 95k miles. So that’s an average of almost 25k/ year. It’s a lot. Admittedly we haven’t added the subscription for our 2020 model 3 in part because it only gets driven half as much.

We’re certainly not rich; but we do have disposable income which I understand is not typical, and I agree that if the numbers are good we’re gonna hear about it. I guess that’s what I’m excited about.

I have now ~20% of my (Bay Area) fire department converted over to EV‘s (from 2% in 2020). Many are commuters from 2 to 3 hours away, which is not uncommon since we work 48 hour shifts. Of the ~20% (30 people), at least 8 people that I know of have subscribed. Again, I admit we are not typical people… But we are also cheap (generalizing).

Sorry to ramble about personal experience during market hours; but I do feel like it’s pertinent for people who are not in a ‘Tesla Mecca’ to hear first hand accounts of the sea change that’s occurring.

Edit to add; I just want to add that currently our city does not provide any financial benefit or otherwise for employees purchasing an EV. There is no infrastructure at the fire stations to charge EV’s and there are policies prohibiting personal EV’s being charged At Work().

 

[aubreymcfato]

Italy got the pedal to the metal: ~450 sold just today.

source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803821045863842091

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Edit to add; I just want to add that currently our city does not provide any financial benefit or otherwise for employees purchasing an EV. There is no infrastructure at the fire stations to charge EV’s and there are policies prohibiting personal EV’s being charged At Work().

That's very common. I think that if PEVs are successful, then policy would adjust to whatever became common in the private sector.

 

[GOVA]

All the mainstream solar you tubers in the UK are raving about it: "Setting the new standard for the industry". The high power output and 3 integrated MPPT solar controllers make it transformational.

While true, there has been a substantial reduction of cost for other solid solar products. PW3 is on the higher end of price-point here. Also, some don't want to get locked into the Tesla ecosystem with further expansions, etc.

There are alternatives now: EPCUBE, EG4 and several others.

Total price, especially with installation, makes PW3 much more expensive than other products. YMMV.

 

[sunwarriors]

That’s a fair point. We have it on a model X from 2020 with 95k miles. So that’s an average of almost 25k/ year. It’s a lot. Admittedly we haven’t added the subscription for our 2020 model 3 in part because it only gets driven half as much.

We’re certainly not rich; but we do have disposable income which I understand is not typical, and I agree that if the numbers are good we’re gonna hear about it. I guess that’s what I’m excited about.

I have now ~20% of my (Bay Area) fire department converted over to EV‘s (from 2% in 2020). Many are commuters from 2 to 3 hours away, which is not uncommon since we work 48 hour shifts. Of the ~20% (30 people), at least 8 people that I know of have subscribed. Again, I admit we are not typical people… But we are also cheap (generalizing).

Sorry to ramble about personal experience during market hours; but I do feel like it’s pertinent for people who are not in a ‘Tesla Mecca’ to hear first hand accounts of the sea change that’s occurring.

Edit to add; I just want to add that currently our city does not provide any financial benefit or otherwise for employees purchasing an EV. There is no infrastructure at the fire stations to charge EV’s and there are policies prohibiting personal EV’s being charged At Work().

Thanks for sharing. I'd say anyone who could even buy a Model X or multiple Tesla's would be in the upper income/asset class in America. I think that's a major disconnect here. Poor folks don't even own equities, let alone a ton of Tesla stock so when people post/talk here, it seems it's from an upper income bias. Folks who won't pay for FSD are morons according to some people here, not knowing that some folks live month/month. I'd say unless you know what it's like to be poor, most views aren't representative of the overall consumer (and why EV sales have fell off a cliff).

If you're in the Bay Area and have to charge on a 2-3 hour commute (and not allowed free at work), that can't be cheap I'd guess.

 

[aubreymcfato]

While true, there has been a substantial reduction of cost for other solid solar products. PW3 is on the higher end of price-point here. Also, some don't want to get locked into the Tesla ecosystem with further expansions, etc.

There are alternatives now: EPCUBE, EG4 and several others.

Total price, especially with installation, makes PW3 much more expensive than other products. YMMV.

This may be true, but OTOH complexity and different suppliers are not really you friend.
PW3 may be not good for people who want a lot of storage (>11kwh), but it's the same product for both storage and inverter.
And, if you have a Tesla, you get all the integration you want, and can expect a *great* software. Apple built an empire out of this "locked in" philosophy.

Just yesterday I was testing the new solar system by best friend installed. It's good and works well, but the wall charger was from a supplier, the battery from another, as the inverter and of course panels. We didn't know - and didn't manage to - charge my car with just solar energy. Software is there and the apps and everything, but it's kinda bad. At least Tesla knows software.
And I'm not even speaking about autobidder and virtual power plants.

I'm all for competition in this segment: Tesla will probably sell all the PW3 they have (they will not be many) and I hope to see competitors step up their game via software. If Tesla wants to compete, they will step up their game with price and economies of scale. Win-win for the mission.
Meanwhile, people will understand better the nuances between different products, which is good for higher-end products like Teslas'.

 

[FireMedic]

Thanks for sharing. I'd say anyone who could even buy a Model X or multiple Tesla's would be in the upper income/asset class in America. I think that's a major disconnect here. Poor folks don't even own equities, let alone a ton of Tesla stock so when people post/talk here, it seems it's from an upper income bias. Folks who won't pay for FSD are morons according to some people here, not knowing that some folks live month/month. I'd say unless you know what it's like to be poor, most views aren't representative of the overall consumer (and why EV sales have fell off a cliff).

If you're in the Bay Area and have to charge on a 2-3 hour commute (and not allowed free at work), that can't be cheap I'd guess.

Well, gas costs $5/gallon here. Also, as fireman, we see a lot of car accidents… Except Teslas … So safety is a priority, and the choice is obvious.

 

[Linkmeup]

Thanks for sharing. I'd say anyone who could even buy a Model X or multiple Tesla's would be in the upper income/asset class in America. I think that's a major disconnect here. Poor folks don't even own equities, let alone a ton of Tesla stock so when people post/talk here, it seems it's from an upper income bias. Folks who won't pay for FSD are morons according to some people here, not knowing that some folks live month/month. I'd say unless you know what it's like to be poor, most views aren't representative of the overall consumer (and why EV sales have fell off a cliff).

If you're in the Bay Area and have to charge on a 2-3 hour commute (and not allowed free at work), that can't be cheap I'd guess.

Ok, how about money saved from just taking a robotaxi rather than owning a car with FSD? Wouldn't the lack of ownership save poor folks money?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

While true, there has been a substantial reduction of cost for other solid solar products. PW3 is on the higher end of price-point here. Also, some don't want to get locked into the Tesla ecosystem with further expansions, etc.

There are alternatives now: EPCUBE, EG4 and several others.

Total price, especially with installation, makes PW3 much more expensive than other products. YMMV.

8 grand installed for the superior power wall 3 compared to EPCUBE at nearly 10 grand for the 13kw battery with much lower output power. Not sure you are up to date. Cheaper batteries are available but lower power generally. Tesla is good value, but does not offer rock bottom specs.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

8 grand installed for the superior power wall 3 compared to EPCUBE at nearly 10 grand for the 13kw battery with much lower output power. Not sure you are up to date. Cheaper batteries are available but lower power generally. Tesla is good value, but does not offer rock bottom specs.

also most of these systems have their own apps, so you are as "locked in to the ecosystem" with them just as much. I have solar edge inverters, works fine with the power wall.

 

[cliff harris]

I have a solar edge inverter, givenergy battery and Tesla in the garage. You can make it all work... but I can imagine that the overwhelming majority of people who rather be single-brand for the whole thing.
GivEnergy don't make panels or cars, solar edge don't make cars, really Tesla is one of the very few companies that can create a popular EV+Solar+Battery ecosystem.