Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Matias]

Yesterday the layout of the available cars page changed in Belgium. Today the radio button for the Model 3 appeared, showing hundreds of available cars. While the S/X cars are from Belgium, the 3s are from all over Europe.

It looks like Tesla wants to sell all possible stock, including Model 3, before the end of the quarter.

Yep. Huge amount of new inventory in Europe.

New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla Suomi

Default color is black, but there are cars on every color.

 

[Tslynk67]

This site paints another picture, with still 897 Model S being available in Europe, mainly in Norway and The Netherlands (Model X stock is much lower):

Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car

Which is the correct information?

Seems roughly in-line with Belgium, I count 8 MX and 4 MS on the website.

 

[Tslynk67]

What happened to the OA updates, the I-Pace suppose to have?

DOA

 

[Fact Checking]

'Tesla does appear to have some GAAP income "dry powder" to push Q1 beyond $251m profits'
You mean Q2?

Indeed, meant to write 'push Q2 beyond $251m' - typo.

Curious - where does the FSD revenue go/how does it get recognized/categorized?

Yes, so in Q1 Tesla increased (short term) deferred revenue by about $132m:

Q1'2019 Q4'2018 QoQ change

Current assets:
Deferred revenue 762,810 630,292 +132,518
Resale value guarantees 480,225 502,840 -22,615

Total assets:
Deferred revenue 1,157,343 990,873 +166,470
Resale value guarantees 211,390 328,926 -117,536​

And they characterized it thusly in the Q1'19 10-Q:

Deferred revenue activity related to the access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot, full self-driving and over-the-air software updates on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantee amounted to $1.04 billion and $882.8 million as of March 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018, respectively.

Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2018 was $37.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2019.

Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees, we expect to recognize $462.3 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the various performance periods of the obligations, which is up to the eight-year life of the vehicle.​

Key takeaways:

• Note how they only recognized $37.4m in Q1, but guided to have an average of deferred revenue recognition of 462/4 = ~$115m.
• Some of that will be due to revenue growth, but some of it might be due to bulk recognition of past FSD and EAP deferred revenue they have in their $1.15b deferred revenue piggy bank on the balance sheet.
• Most of this $1.15b is money already paid by customers, but not yet recognized as GAAP income. When they recognize it then these will I believe increase GAAP income with almost 100% margin: there's no matching "deferred cost of goods" concept I believe. So it's a powerful tool.
  
• There's also the expiring resale value guarantees.

In principle Tesla will have internal milestones, which if they are met revenue can be recognized. So for example if someone paid $5k for FSD two years ago and now gets Advanced Summon - they might declare that another 20% of that obligation was met.

There's a fair amount of discretionary leeway there I believe, the only true limit is when customers start asking for money back for not delivered milestones/features actually promised on the order page. (This is I suspect why the TSLAQ eco-terrorists are trying to stir up so much 'I want my money back' discontent among Tesla owners - but owners are not biting.)

Not advice though.

(Maybe @Doggydogworld, @schonelucht or @neroden has a more accurate read on the financial details?)

 

[Artful Dodger]

There's no binary 'tipping point' - our only planet's climate is an incredibly complex machinery that is only partly understood.

OT

Their are hysteresis points in the climate system. The most urgent situation is the loss of Arctic sea ice. Losing Summer sea ice results in an 'albedo flip' leading to rapid warming of the entire Arctic region, and is nearly irreversible without herculean mitigation efforts.

Sea ice reflects 90% of the Sun's energy back into space, whereas open blue ocean absorbs and stores 90% of solar energy. This albedo flip will hugely affect the energy balance in the Arctic. Once the Summer sea ice cover is removed, ocean warming is locked in, even though it will take time until a new equilibrium is reached.

The sea ice hysterisis effect was studied in this seminal climate science paper:

Eisenman, I., & Wettlaufer, J. S. (2009). Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(1), 28-32.

Fig. 2

"Bifurcation diagram for the partially linearized model, where nonlinear sea-ice thermodynamic effects have been excluded but the ice–albedo feedback has been retained."
​

In this graph, temperature is on the vertical axis and surface energy imbalance is on the horizontal axis. Once sea surface temps (SSTs) rise above 0 C (melting point of ice), then it requires far less heat imbalance to maintain that ice free state. Meaning that even severe cut backs on carbon emissions AFTER losing the Arctic sea ice still might not bring it back. Without it, we suffer fast climate feedbacks and further rapid warming.

We'd need to fight feed-back effects like melting permafrost and methane clathrates, which would kick and release frozen carbon over the next 200 yrs. There is as much as 4x the amount of sequestered carbon (1,200 GT) frozen in the Arctic as the total of all of mankind's fossil fuel use over the past 200 years (400GT). Yes, its that serious.

It is far easier to stop warming now, rather than after Arctic sea ice is gone. We barely have the technolgy to deal with these affects now, BEFORE the albedo flip lets the genie out of the bottle. Or are we awakening the Kracken?

Regrettably, today this is a political fight against vested interests who actively fight public acceptance of climate science, and have trillions of selfish reasons to protect their stranded assets.

The more obvious the effects of Arctic warming become, the harder it will be to deal with their consequences, until eventually it becomes beyond society's capacity to respond.

This is why we must fight the disinformation campaign, and why Tesla's mission must not fail. The fate of Society hangs on the outcome.

 

[HG Wells]

I feel compelled to pick my nose. Subliminal messaging maybe?

All good. He’s on my ‘to be blown up with my mind’ list when the Gods deem me worthy of such a super power. Until then...*rummages through the voodoo drawer*

AH, Another topic covered by my namesake, Good film.
The man who could work miracles. 1936
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1iHe42UCCo&t=57s

 

[SO16]

OT

Their are hysteresis points in the climate system. The most urgent situation is the loss of Arctic sea ice. Losing Summer sea ice results in an 'albedo flip' leading to rapid warming of the entire Arctic region, and is nearly irreversible without herculean mitigation efforts.

Sea ice reflects 90% of the Sun's energy back into space, whereas open blue ocean absorbs and stores 90% of solar energy. This albedo flip will hugely affect the energy balance in the Arctic. Once the Summer sea ice cover is removed, ocean warming is locked in, even though it will take time until a new equilibrium is reached.

The sea ice hysterisis effect was studied in this seminal climate science paper:

Eisenman, I., & Wettlaufer, J. S. (2009). Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(1), 28-32.

Fig. 2

"Bifurcation diagram for the partially linearized model, where nonlinear sea-ice thermodynamic effects have been excluded but the ice–albedo feedback has been retained."
​

In this graph, temperature is on the vertical axis and surface energy imbalance is on the horizontal axis. Once sea surface temps (SSTs) rise above 0 C (melting point of ice), then it requires far less heat imbalance to maintain that ice free state. Meaning that even severe cut backs on carbon emissions AFTER losing the Arctic sea ice still might not bring it back. Without it, we suffer fast climate feedbacks and further rapid warming.

We'd need to fight feed-back effects like melting permafrost and methane clathrates, which would kick and release frozen carbon over the next 200 yrs. There is as much as 4x the amount of sequestered carbon (1,200 GT) frozen in the Arctic as the total of all of mankind's fossil fuel use over the past 200 years (400GT). Yes, its that serious.

It is far easier to stop warming now, rather than after Arctic sea ice is gone. We barely have the technolgy to deal with these affects now, BEFORE the albedo flip lets the genie out of the bottle. Or are we awakening the Kracken?

Regrettably, today this is a political fight against vested interests who actively fight public acceptance of climate science, and have trillions of selfish reasons to protect their stranded assets.

The more obvious the effects of Arctic warming become, the harder it will be to deal with their consequences, until eventually it becomes beyond society's capacity to respond.

This is why we must fight the disinformation campaign, and why Tesla's mission must not fail. The fate of Society hangs on the outcome.

Did you see the spin Pompeo made? Gotta say that it’s one way to make lemonade out of lemons.

“Steady reductions in sea ice are opening new naval passageways and new opportunities for trade,” Pompeo said. New routes, where the nuisance of sea ice has conveniently disappeared, could “become the 21st century’s Suez and Panama canals.”

 

[pnungesser]

I agree there is an upper limit to how fast a ship can be loaded. I disagree that ship loading is predictable and consistent and that upper limit was being consistently hit during Q1 (or during any quarter). I guess when the official numbers are reported we whether soft demand resulted in poor sales in China. There are better ways to estimate demand in China than how long the ships took to load.

There are videos on youtube showing the loading of RORO ships. If someone is interested (not me) you can estimate how many cars can be loaded each minute. I was impressed how quickly it was done.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Model 3 deliveries in The Netherlands are picking up steam. After 414 deliveries in May we are now at 352 for June already (per June 7). Yesterday alone saw 114 deliveries.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Did you see the spin Pompeo made? Gotta say that it’s one way to make lemonade out of lemons.

“Steady reductions in sea ice are opening new naval passageways and new opportunities for trade,” Pompeo said. New routes, where the nuisance of sea ice has conveniently disappeared, could “become the 21st century’s Suez and Panama canals.”

OT - Con't

Yes, those claims are old hat, long a part of the climate denier's toolkit. Just like I hear claims that "Global warming will be good for Canada". Tell that to forest fire evacuees/refugees in BC and Northern Alberta.

Did you know that Soviet and American scientists studied various schemes to remove the Arctic sea ice as far back as the 1950/60s? They wanted to reduce the need for Ice Breakers to increase maritime shipping in the Arctic. That was a goal set over 60 years ago!

Aagaard, Knut, and L. K. Coachman. "Toward an ice‐free Arctic Ocean." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 56.7 (1975): 484-486.

Abstract

"The strong salinity stratification of the Arctic Ocean prevents substantial ice‐free conditions in winter by suppressing convection and reducing upward heat flux from the Atlantic Water. These conditions would be significantly altered in the sensitive southern Eurasian basin if suggested diversions of western Siberian rivers were accomplished."​

The RAND Corporation of California also studied how to achieve this back in the 1960s:

Maykut, Gary A., and Norbert Untersteiner. Numerical prediction of the thermodynamic response of Arctic sea ice to environmental changes. No. RM-6093-PR. RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, 1969.​

The Soviets suggested diverting North flowing rivers to prevent fresh water from entering the Arctic basin, leaving a saltier ocean which is harder to freeze. Wanna know what the U.S. RAND Corp recommended 50 years ago to do the same job? "BURN MORE FOSSIL FUELS." ISYN, it's actually in the Conclusion of their paper cited above.

There's lots more on this topic in this more current blog post:

How the USSR Tried to Melt the Arctic | Gizmodo.com

Cheers!

 

[dhrivnak]

I have a M3 arriving next week.
I did the math. I save only $2000 CAD a year. I save $800 on maintenance but I pay $800 for insurance.

AutoPilot is like having a driver so that's worth $2000 a year for me, that's why I am getting one. I don't need FSD though, not yet.

Check on other insurance companies. Erie for one has very reasonable rates for my Model 3. Not much different than my 2015 Volt. And noticeably less than $800/yr

 

[winfield100]

positive news is good news. interest is growing for all facets
two weeks ahead of launch of Falcon Heavy, sold out cruise to watch. (3 hour tour?)
'spaceX, is that Elon Musk company? doesn't he make really fast, electric cars also that don't pollute'
(for ArabSat 6 launch we (illegally) parked in lot next to 1/2 dozen Tesla's, S & 3's, one with SpaceX license plates from Delaware (1,000 miles north) hundreds of us on the beach, sharing a moment

 

[dc_h]

No, I’m not. Im just not blindly bullish, if something looks strange I have a question about it.

I see the two recent ships. It’s a reasonable line of inquiry. The past ship was there 12 hours, so likely a partial load. They could have had perfect timing and loaded fast, but sfo probably has fewer dockworkers to load ships then LA, Shanghai or Zeebrudge, so I doubt they can load and unload at 400 cars an hour. Shipping from m sfo to China is probably cheap, since many ships go back empty, so partial quick loads could be cost effective.
I believe the ships are typically manned by about a dozen sailors. They would not load the ship. Port is fueling, maintenance and breaktime. Dockworkers are union guys and I doubt any west coast port would have cheap part time labor to do a rush load.
Morton Grove, the twitter dude also noted this shipment did not include a batch of RHD cars on the dock. Another ship is coming up from LA or San Diego and is likely picking up for the UK or Australia.

 

[FreqFlyer]

So VW has to sponsor a website that sells its competitor's cars? Part of Diesel gate settlement? If so that is brutal.........You see, Tesla is advertising.

PlugStar

Because this is dealing with sales of Tesla cars, hence effect on SP, why posted here.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

They are not idiots. They have bought a perfectly reasonable car. Not everybody care about top speed. And the Jaguar got style. And it's easier to park than the wide American cars. And you can use a roof rack.

So I'm glad people buy the i-Pace. It's good for the environment. And much nicer to drive behind than the e-Pace or XJ.

Yah that’s one annoying thing about some on this board. We put a deposit on a 2020 Nissan Leaf EPlus SL a couple weeks ago. The model 3 is an amazing car and drives better than the Eplus not to mention some pretty cool tech. But there is more to the decision than just “the drive”.

- Hatchback
- Easier ingress and egress.
- Chademo compatible, important for where we travel in our province.
- Heated steering wheel for sore 56 year old hands
- Homelink standard. (Not really important for us though)
- Heat pump so less energy use in mildly cold temps...like where we live in BC.
- Autopark included without having to get FSD.
- E-Pedal. (One of our favourite things about the Leaf)
- all around 360 view.
- pretty much no vampire drain. Important for us as we leave the country for months at a time without being able to plug in.
- rear cross traffic collision avoidance which i think the model 3 does as well but can’t get anyone at Tesla to confirm.
- The Eplus SL is a much quieter car than the three although I have heard there are aftermarket products one can use to quiet them down.

The model 3 is sooo much better looking than the leaf and I will miss having that crazy acceleration. I think the model Y will tick a lot of these boxes and we will be putting a deposit on one of those next year. It will eventually be our other vehicle.

Tesla is an amazing car but the current model lineup doesn’t necessarily suit everyone’s needs or budget.

Just sayin.

 

[Congo Line]

They sold 3000? How'd they find that many idiots with mid 6 figures to spend on a car?

Slower, more expensive, less efficient than a Model 3.
Slower, more expensive and less storage than a Model S.
Far less passenger capacity, far less storage, far less towing than a Model X.

Let's not even discuss the Y.

I have a coworker who just bought a BMW i3, thinking they could commute from DC to Baltimore and back. They were complaining about having to locate a charging station along the way one day because had forgotten to plug in at home. I had to hold my tongue to keep from asking them why on earth they bought an i3 instead of the M3. Did warn them that range would decrease once winter came.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Put differently: human industry emits about +12 ppm worth of CO₂ every year, while natural processes are reducing it by about -10 ppm

That's a really helpful way to quantify it. Much clearer what the impact is compared to using gigatons

 

[ggr]

doubling the size of its planetary scale natural heat mirror in the last 200 years (CO₂ levels going from 200 ppm to 400+ ppm today)

I can't let this one go uncorrected, sorry. We're up about 50% in two hundred years.
ESRL Global Monitoring Division News Items

Before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm. During the last 800,000 years, CO2 fluctuated between about 180 ppm during ice ages and 280 ppm during interglacial warm periods. Today’s rate of increase is more than 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended.

 

[bhtooefr]

It's just for simple things like tweaks to the infotainment system and battery management.

And that'll be for safety/security reasons.

Traditional automakers are bad at software, and know it. (I mean, everyone's bad at software. Nearly every security update for your computer or smartphone is fixing a specific instance where Microsoft, Apple, Google, or the developers of the software included in your Linux/BSD distribution (I think I've covered everything that anyone on here is reasonably using) found out that they were bad at software. But the traditional automakers are particularly bad at it.)

(As an aside, this is not an invitation to restart the USB music discussion, or talk about center display crashing, or any specific Tesla bugs. I'm not saying Tesla's good at software, just that traditional automakers are particularly bad at it.)

The traditional way of dealing with this is two-fold: minimize the amount of software involved altogether (that is, do as little as possible, because each line of code is a potential security vulnerability), and reduce the security attack surface (don't connect things to the Internet unless they have to be, provide as much isolation between control modules as possible to avoid, say, an attack on the infotainment system from affecting powertrain, braking, or steering control). Sometimes the traditional automakers even fail at this - see the attack against FCA's UConnect system, where they connected over the cellular radio, then went from there to attack the ABS and power steering systems - but this is what's considered best practice.

Tesla violates both of those traditional ways of dealing with this. They have lots of software (and a fair amount of it is commodity software that's well-understood how to attack it), and the Internet-connected control module has the ability to reflash firmware on every other control module in the car. You have to have a lot of confidence in your security mechanisms if you're going to do that, and most automakers don't have that confidence.

...that said, if I were going to make an EV, while I would restrict communications between anything Internet-connected and anything safety-critical, I'd probably hide a dedicated firmware update USB port in the glovebox for the safety-critical control modules, to allow the customer to download a signed firmware update from my website. Not as convenient as an OTA, but at least you don't have to drive in and take up the service team's time.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yah that’s one annoying thing about some on this board. We put a deposit on a 2020 Nissan Leaf EPlus SL a couple weeks ago. The model 3 is an amazing car and drives better than the Eplus not to mention some pretty cool tech. But there is more to the decision than just “the drive”.

- Hatchback
- Easier ingress and egress.
- Chademo compatible, important for where we travel in our province.
- Heated steering wheel for sore 56 year old hands
- Homelink standard. (Not really important for us though)
- Heat pump so less energy use in mildly cold temps...like where we live in BC.
- Autopark included without having to get FSD.
- E-Pedal. (One of our favourite things about the Leaf)
- all around 360 view.
- pretty much no vampire drain. Important for us as we leave the country for months at a time without being able to plug in.
- rear cross traffic collision avoidance which i think the model 3 does as well but can’t get anyone at Tesla to confirm.
- The Eplus SL is a much quieter car than the three although I have heard there are aftermarket products one can use to quiet them down.

The model 3 is sooo much better looking than the leaf and I will miss having that crazy acceleration. I think the model Y will tick a lot of these boxes and we will be putting a deposit on one of those next year. It will eventually be our other vehicle.

Tesla is an amazing car but the current model lineup doesn’t necessarily suit everyone’s needs or budget.

Just sayin.

To be fair this is specifically a Tesla enthusiasts forum not a specific all EV enthusiasts forum, although a good portion of the members are supportive of EVs in general.

Enjoy your Leaf (as much as one can ) and hopefully we’ll see you back in the Tesla Family sooner rather than later.