Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

Three motors are the optimal engineering solution for a roadgoing sportscar. The Roadster2 accelerates at about 1.5 g from a standstill. Weight transfer during acceleration puts 2/3rds of the available traction on the rear axle, 1/3rd on the front. Three identical motors handles this situation perfectly.

A four motor design creates extra weight and/or complexity. Which means 3 motors beats 4 in a streetable car.

The Rimac is barely an engineering exercise, it's even in the name: "Concept One". Meanwhile, Tesla has already demonstrated torque vectoring with the Model 3 P "track mode". Software and OTA updates wins this race.

There's a few considerations here.

I'll start with the torque vectoring you mentioned.

AFAICT, the Model 3 uses a brake-based torque vectoring system - essentially, it uses the friction brake on the slipping wheel to load the (open) differential and send torque to the other side. This is extremely cheap (uses hardware you already have) and effective, and many automakers do it nowadays (up to and including McLaren).

However, while it's cheap and effective, it wears the brakes, and it obviously turns some of your forward momentum into heat, reducing performance and efficiency.

So, that's a reason to have two motors on an axle.

Now, as far as Rimac's implementation... well, they're not using four identical motors. The rear motors are larger and optimized for lower RPM (with a 2-speed gearbox to make up for that) in the Concept_One, although only slightly higher power rating. I don't have specs for the C_Two's individual motors, but I think your 1/3 to 2/3 split is actually pretty closely reflected in the available motor powers.

Does it add complexity (and more importantly for mass-market vehicles, cost) over a 3 motor system? Sure. But it adds performance over it, just as the 3-motor system will add performance and complexity over a 2-motor system using a small motor and a big motor (ala the Model S/X Performance).

 

[KarenRei]

I'm pretty sure it'll be lithium, partly because there has been a bizarre failure of financial funding to miners to ramp up lithium production. I don't see this for other mining situations. Some of the other raw materials bottlenecks would be classified as processing, not mining. (There's not that much synthetic graphite manufactured, but there's plenty of petcoke to make it from; there may not be that much nickel sulfide, but there's plenty of nickel to make it from).

Battery-grade nickel sulfate isn't made from metallurgical nickel; it'd be far too expensive to produce the metal, purify it, and then convert it to battery-grade sulfate. It's made directly from nickel sulfide ore deposits, which are fairly rare, and usually with significant overburden. Traditionally you can't economically use even rich nickel laterites (by contrast, lower-grade laterites are extremely abundant globally, with little to no overburden). But the new tech push is price reductions in HPAL to be able to use low-grade laterites cheaper than sulfides.

Both nickel sulfate and lithium carbonate/chloride will be really feeling the crunch if Tesla scales quickly. The latter because, like you say, there's been significant underinvestment in lithium mining, and the former because we really need to move off of sulfides and on to laterites if li-ion EVs are going totally replace ICEs, since nickel sulfate is required in abundance (nickel = 80% of non-oxygen cathode mass). There's a Chinese company (can't remember the name off the top of my head) that's really been pushing the envelope in this regard. Fun side effect: HPAL recovery of nickel from low-grade laterites is also good at recovering cobalt as a side stream. So in case it can't be completely eliminated...

 

[mongo]

OT

However, while it's cheap and effective, it wears the brakes, and it obviously turns some of your forward momentum into heat, reducing performance and efficiency.

Open diff with braking does waste energy; however, with an electric motor running at less than 100%, it can increase output to match the desired torque at each wheel so no performance loss:

High traction wheel: X
Low traction wheel: Y
Low traction wheel braking: Z
X=Y+Z
Motor output = 2*X

 

[Tslynk67]

It's not that advertising doesn't work, everyone knows that advertising works, it's that if you can sell all you can make without advertising, why spend the money. Will it increase sales? No. Right now the only possible benefit from advertising is paying off the media thugs--and unless you spend a whopping amount, it won't change their stories to positive.

My take on this advertising discussion...

OK, I'm one of the "smart ones" here that never buys anything as a result of advertising, except when I really think about it, that's wrong - mostly from web-tracking ads (as I don't watch TV, read papers or magazines and I skip past any ads at the beginning of YouTube videos - they are deeply annoying), typically Amazon, can trigger me to research something deeper, then buy. So I do the vast majority of us are not immune to it, whatever we may like to think.

But I agree with the above, advertising may not increase sales, but there's merit in saying that it might lead to higher-spec cars being sold - although by educating a more affluent demographic.

However, I think the biggest benefit would be to counteract the issue on-hand, which is the amount of FUD, BS and straight lies being pushed daily by all the factions lined-up against the company. On this I do fear that the ongoing reputation of Tesla is under threat by the continual smears and this could lead to depressed demand in the future.

But this could perhaps be addressed in many ways, of which paid adverts are just one option.

 

[AlexS]

We ride along in Tesla Mobile Service's customized Model S - Video

Tesla mobile service

Interestingly this video is geoblocked on YahooFinance page, but freely available on CNet. Very strange isn't it, whats up yahooFinance with you. All bashing videos lately are not geoblocked.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

You’re the only person who has complained about this,

We need to be more organised and proactive. It should never be just one person who calls out the FUD, it should be dozens of us. We need a FUD watch (with suggested rebuttal points) thread maybe?

 

[UncaNed]

Semi OT

Three motors is still clearly an interim step. As Rimac knew, there will eventually be one motor per wheel. It makes the suspension more complicated, and at the moment that means more expensive. I wonder when Tesla will develop a four-motor design with low unsprung weight which they consider cheap enough to mass produce -- I'm sure every engineer working on the drivetrain wants to do that.

More Semi - OT

How about 10 wheel/motors on a Semi? I doubt there's a lack of traction on the front wheels like a sportscar. If wheel motors eliminate the differential housing, then what great clearance for off-roading! Only 50 HP each = 500 HP.

Edit- and how cool would it be to have skid-loader steering action on a car with 4 wheel motors!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

FWIW I don't think ads make sense right now for tesla. I just hate it when people state that ads don't work, are evil, or that *they* are immune to them, because all three statements are false. PR is better than ads generally because its cheaper, and feels more genuine to the conscious brain (the subconscious brain is defenseless anyway).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Oil tankers on fire after 'torpedo' attack in Gulf of Oman, oil prices on the rise.

Live Oil tankers hit in fresh 'torpedo attack' in Gulf of Oman amid Iran tensions

Two Tankers Damaged Near Strait of Hormuz; One Suffers ‘Suspected Attack’

 

[Fact Checking]

Here is my response to his. Gotta say I was somewhat surprised.

You wrote a great response triggering a reconsideration. Your reply was much better than my knee-jerk reaction that effectively accused him of bias - which is totally counterproductive if there's no intentional bias.

 

[AlexS]

Norway 111 today already, would be nice to hit 200 by the end of the day

 

[SO16]

We need to be more organised and proactive. It should never be just one person who calls out the FUD, it should be dozens of us. We need a FUD watch (with suggested rebuttal points) thread maybe?

Perhaps a category within TMC. A thread will probably just get lost in time.

I had this other thread for my “conversation” with the head of the NJDA.

A Tesla smear article from the NJ dealer association and my conversation with him.

 

[KarenRei]

Oh, Canada?

Nafnlaus on Twitter

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Perhaps a category within TMC. A thread will probably just get lost in time.

I had this other thread for my “conversation” with the head of the NJDA.

A Tesla smear article from the NJ dealer association and my conversation with him.

I think what would be simpler is a list to positive articles, especially stuff that can be upvoted/shared on twitter/reddit/facebook. boost the signal etc. I upvote all the positive stuff I see on reddit already.
But also articles in mainstream media with comments attached. I'm always happy to wade into online newspaper comments to describe the real experience of owning an EV, but you only know about the ones you see.

 

[mongo]

OT

More Semi - OT

How about 10 wheel/motors on a Semi? I doubt there's a lack of traction on the front wheels like a sportscar. If wheel motors eliminate the differential housing, then what great clearance for off-roading! Only 50 HP each = 500 HP.

Edit- and how cool would it be to have skid-loader steering action on a car with 4 wheel motors!

Front wheel drive would require high capacity CV joints, additional wear, weight, and suspension complexity. The semi does not have a differential, the center housing is to mount the drive unit and provide space for the axle bearings and final drive gear.

By 10 are you meaning make the dual rear wheels independent? That doubles up brakes and require co-axial shafts, added complexity and weight. One of the semi is running wide singles so there is only one wheel per side per axle. If you mean trailer: that is a lot of extra cost for the part that has a much lower duty cycle, along with extra weight and complexity.

 

[jerry33]

More Semi - OT

How about 10 wheel/motors on a Semi? I doubt there's a lack of traction on the front wheels like a sportscar. If wheel motors eliminate the differential housing, then what great clearance for off-roading! Only 50 HP each = 500 HP.

Edit- and how cool would it be to have skid-loader steering action on a car with 4 wheel motors!

Needs to be well over 600 hp for any bragging rights as Freightliner has engines that are software upgradable to 600 hp.

 

[Fact Checking]

Is it just me or this rotating thing is something?

View attachment 418744

So this is from the Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting's video stream, which ran for a couple of minutes and is included in the Youtube version as well, starting exactly at 8:00:

It definitely appears to be a vehicle's exterior from very close up, with a Tesla logo and the weird section you outlined. The 'rotation' is I believe camera movement. The whole sequence is repeated around 3 times before the live feed is cut in. I believe it's showing various details of a single car the whole time: the color scheme is similar.

Edit, here's a few detailed shots of the Roadster 2020:

Tesla's next-gen Roadster stuns crowd at famed ArtCenter in Los Angeles​

I don't recognize that 'rotating' sequence as any of the details on the Roadster 2020.

I don't recognize these details from any of the existing production models or known protytypes either.

Could this be another Tesla Pickup Truck leak, hidden in plain sight? The black color scheme would support that interpretation too.

 

[jerry33]

OT


Front wheel drive would require high capacity CV joints, additional wear, weight, and suspension complexity. The semi does not have a differential, the center housing is to mount the drive unit and provide space for the axle bearings and final drive gear.

By 10 are you meaning make the dual rear wheels independent? That doubles up brakes and require co-axial shafts, added complexity and weight. One of the semi is running wide singles so there is only one wheel per side per axle. If you mean trailer: that is a lot of extra cost for the part that has a much lower duty cycle, along with extra weight and complexity.

And besides, many trailers are not owned by the same company/individual that owns the truck.

 

[JusRelax]

Yet, it's not mere daydreaming. Among E.M.'s talents are long-term un-distracted focus on cost efficiency borne from thousands of design decisions that result in things like the peerless Model 3 battery-drive train (as JLR, Audi & others now know). Under-promised and over-delivered. Same with rockets. Study the new Raptor motor. A myriad of design choices all pointing to cost efficiency for interplanetary travel.

Elon is all about efficiency in everything he tries to take on. SpaceEx reusable rockets are his way of telling the aerospace industry that what they're doing is terribly inefficient. The Boring co is his way of telling the boring companies that what they're currently doing is terribly inefficient. Tesla electric vehicles is his way of telling traditional auto that their way of creating ICE vehicles are inefficient. He hates traffic, which he believes is terribly inefficient. Paypal was his way of telling traditional finance that their usage of non-virtual currencies were inefficient. His love for the VTOL airplane is because of the level of efficiency it will have, recharging most of the energy used in getting up to the altitude necessary for efficient Earth traversal. Efficiency is his driving motivator for all of his ventures.

I think this is also why he is so focused on full-self driving as well. When he discusses robotaxis, what does he comment on? The fact that currently, vehicles are used for only 1-2 hours per day, whereas once they are used as robotaxis, they can be used up to 8x as much (anywhere from 8-16 hours per day).

I believe this is why he feels so adamantly about advertising. Advertising may be beneficial to Tesla's bottom line, but I don't think he sees it as adding anything to the world. To him, it is a completely inefficient act because it only results in a transfer of sales from one company to another, rather than adding anything new or more efficient to what currently exists.

EDIT: So if you want to convince Elon to advertise, I believe you'd need to convince him of the follwing:

1. Advertising will allow Tesla to sell vehicles at a higher gross margin, providing Tesla with greater opportunities for growth.
2. More growth will allow Tesla to reach a larger audience at a faster rate, moving more people from ICE to EV.
3. More people moving from ICE to EV more quickly results in a more efficient human race as a whole.

 

[UncaNed]

OT


Front wheel drive would require high capacity CV joints, additional wear, weight, and suspension complexity. The semi does not have a differential, the center housing is to mount the drive unit and provide space for the axle bearings and final drive gear.

By 10 are you meaning make the dual rear wheels independent? That doubles up brakes and require co-axial shafts, added complexity and weight. One of the semi is running wide singles so there is only one wheel per side per axle. If you mean trailer: that is a lot of extra cost for the part that has a much lower duty cycle, along with extra weight and complexity.

Yeah, I was thinking trailer. 18 wheelers have 10 axels, either with actual dual wheels or wide single wheels.

Perhaps this is only useful for off-road/military.