Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Is it just me or is every time someone mentions a "short squeeze" a cue for the shorts to make another push to bring the stock down?

I think Tesla is finally beyond such concerns and now their numbers just make the shorts seem ridiculous...er.

Keep on keepin' on!

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

Rotating stuff?

So you’re saying that the Model P will actually be a Transformer?

 

[Nocturnal]

It's very exciting that the new goal for the solar roof is cost parity (including energy savings) with a traditional/cheap composite shingle roof. That's huge. I'd be ecstatic to break even on a roof that is stronger and reduces pollution. (plus if it is stronger then home insurance should drop over time)

 

[Tslynk67]

Blah, put a $205 buy order in at open, it was heading there, but not quite.

Given the unpredictability I’ll sit on it a bit.

Pray for me brothers, sisters and Turing machines.

 

[dqd88]

They just secured a $1B capital raise.

Northvolt secures $1 billion from VW, others for gigafactory; VW joint gigafactory also planned - Electrek

Can we stop linking to electrek? Tesla enemy. thanks

 

[KarenRei]

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

Lora Kolodny (note: generally Tesla-hostile reporter... although certainly not the worst) wants to speak with women who work for Tesla, own/drive Teslas, or invest in Tesla (long or short).

 

[Causalien]

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

Lora Kolodny (note: generally Tesla-hostile reporter... although certainly not the worst) wants to speak with women who work for Tesla, own/drive Teslas, or invest in Tesla (long or short).

Que incoming reports of Elon being a misogynist and tesla being a boys club. You can bet on it.

 

[LJS22]

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

Lora Kolodny (note: generally Tesla-hostile reporter... although certainly not the worst) wants to speak with women who work for Tesla, own/drive Teslas, or invest in Tesla (long or short).

Women, Texas, and China will be Tesla’s target audience when they are ready to increase demand.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I think quite a bit of global wave is repeated as well - though not as bad as Q1. Q1 was an aberration because of first time 3 deliveries when they had to solve a lot of logistical issues for the first time. It is slightly better space this time, yet, we'll see a large portion of cars delivered in June.

Basically, when there is little variation in deliveries between months (or even weeks), wave would be over. Any variation should be natural buying seasonality.

Q1 ended with ~20k 3s and ~14k s+x. I'd expect a lower inventory of s+x and a bit more of 3s, depending on what they do in the last 2 weeks of June. Natural inventory levels would be 1 month production for EU, China and 2 weeks for US - ~20k total, assuming 60k NA deliveries and 30k ROW. This would be when all the produced vehicles are being bought immediately. So, even with no wave, the inventory level should go down from 34k to 20k.

Tesla historically delivered 65-80% of S/X in the 3rd month of the quarter. March was ~62% of Q1. June should come in around 52-53% of Q2. I'd call that a partial unwind. I'd consider a 30/30/40 pattern to be fully unwound.

 

[dqd88]

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

Lora Kolodny (note: generally Tesla-hostile reporter... although certainly not the worst) wants to speak with women who work for Tesla, own/drive Teslas, or invest in Tesla (long or short).

She blocked me a while back (all I did was ask her why she's trying to halt environment progress smh)

 

[anthonyj]

Que incoming reports of Elon being a misogynist and tesla being a boys club. You can bet on it.

Elon is a white straight male so he’s automatically a misogynist
...
/s

 

[Fact Checking]

I think the rotation looks like the truck wheel / hubcab. It looks a little Mad-Max plate armor like. Just a guess. If you watch the video over and over and compare some of the shapes to the original 'joke' design where the Ford is in the bed, you can see some similar shapes.

@9:27, it looks like their panning from bed to cab.

Oh wow, there's another possibility: one of my pet theories is that the top trim of the Tesla Pickup Truck might be amphibious, with seamless offroad and "speedboat" capabilities.

For that it would require either a marine propeller and rudder at the back ... or it could intelligently repurpose its four wheels to generate forward thrust.

The problem with that idea is that the wheels on the road are aerodynamic, which gives them very little forward thrust in water by default.

But what if the wheel covers are actuated with hydraulics, like a controllable pitch propeller (CPP), which would not only generate fairly substantial thrust, but would also allow steering in a two motor setup which has normally limited left/right rotational differential?

This solves four difficult engineering and reliability problems rather elegantly:

• No rudder required (rudders are fragile anyway),
• thrust can be stabilized even if the angle of attack isn't perpendicular, such as when crossing a fast flowing river,
• thrust can be maximized for efficiency versus control authority,
• no need to hide the wheels from the flow of water, if they are the means of thrust generation.

The "submarine car" joke from Elon might have been another secret teaser in plain sight.

My crazy prediction for the Pickup Truck unveil: it will be next to a significant body of water.

 

[UncaNed]

It's very exciting that the new goal for the solar roof is cost parity (including energy savings) with a traditional/cheap composite shingle roof. That's huge. I'd be ecstatic to break even on a roof that is stronger and reduces pollution. (plus if it is stronger then home insurance should drop over time)

And less flammable than shingles.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Chinese firm makes insane $23 billion investment in production of 1 million EVs/yr and 500 GWh of batteries - Electrek

edit: comment on Electrek is plausibly questioning whether this is an error in meaning of the Chinese account and suggesting this is likely a 50 GWh announcement. maybe someone here capable of checking can go to the source materials?

Announced over $20 billion commitment... including plan for 500 GWh battery factory. Five hundred.

For a sense of scale, if used strictly for 50 kWh BEVs, roughly the size of an SR Model 3 battery, this would be enough battery supply for 10 million vehicles. Of course, we don’t know how this capacity will be used (pure EVs, PHEVs, energy storage, etc.) if it is built up.

To be seen how capable they will be at executing, and how solid is the commitment, but, at face value this is the kind of effort Elon has dreamed of to spur the global incumbents into meaningful movement towards EVs.

It's 50GWh, not 500.
Freaking Fred got it wrong again.

Link here: 许家印造车梦继续 1600亿扩建恒大广州南沙基地
If you search for 50GWh and you will see it

 

[larmor]

Oh wow, there's another possibility: one of my pet theories is that the top trim of the Tesla Pickup Truck might be amphibious, with seamless offroad and "speedboat" capabilities.

For that it would require either a marine propeller and rudder at the back ... or it could intelligently repurpose its four wheels to generate forward thrust.

The problem is, the wheels on the road are aerodynamic, which gives them very little forward thrust in water by default.

But what if the wheel covers are actuated with hydraulics, like a controllable pitch propeller (CPP), which would not only generate fairly substantial thrust, but would also allow steering in a two motor setup with limited left/right rotational differential?

This solves four difficult engineering and reliability problems rather elegantly:

• No rudder required (rudders are fragile anyway),
• thrust can be stabilized even if the angle of attack isn't perpendicular, such as when crossing a fast flowing river,
• thrust can be maximized for efficiency versus control authority,
• no need to hide the wheels from the flow of water, if they are the means of thrust generation.

The "submarine car" joke from Elon might have been another secret teaser in plain sight.

My crazy prediction for the Pickup Truck unveil: it will be next to a significant body of water.

Maybe along this line, they will make sure the pickup is certified to be water tight up to a certain height, so that it can be used in flooded areas, areas with street flooding.

 

[JRP3]

U.S. denies Tesla tariff relief request for Chinese-made Model 3 'brain' - Reuters

 

[Joe F]

U.S. denies Tesla tariff relief request for Chinese-made Model 3 'brain' - Reuters

Was just about to post this. Sad. However, if it means the M3 price goes up a bit to cover the administrations tariff war, so be it. Votes matter.

 

[LJS22]

Oh wow, there's another possibility: one of my pet theories is that the top trim of the Tesla Pickup Truck might be amphibious, with seamless offroad and "speedboat" capabilities.

For that it would require either a marine propeller and rudder at the back ... or it could intelligently repurpose its four wheels to generate forward thrust.

The problem with that idea is that the wheels on the road are aerodynamic, which gives them very little forward thrust in water by default.

But what if the wheel covers are actuated with hydraulics, like a controllable pitch propeller (CPP), which would not only generate fairly substantial thrust, but would also allow steering in a two motor setup which has normally limited left/right rotational differential?

This solves four difficult engineering and reliability problems rather elegantly:

• No rudder required (rudders are fragile anyway),
• thrust can be stabilized even if the angle of attack isn't perpendicular, such as when crossing a fast flowing river,
• thrust can be maximized for efficiency versus control authority,
• no need to hide the wheels from the flow of water, if they are the means of thrust generation.

The "submarine car" joke from Elon might have been another secret teaser in plain sight.

My crazy prediction for the Pickup Truck unveil: it will be next to a significant body of water.

I’m not sure people could handle Tesla releasing a submarine Truck and a rocket thrusting supercar in the same year

 

[Bobfitz1]

Well, Elon liked this tweet. Could be a good sign on the PR front:
Tesla Owners Online on Twitter

Recruit Tom Hanks as Tesla celebrity spokesperson. He's already a green advocate and I can't think of an actor with a greater public approval and respect rating.

"Tom Hanks
An avid supporter and volunteer for The Nature Conservancy. And Hanks often goes the extra green mile to make mention of his environmental leanings when he makes major TV appearances."

 

[Fact Checking]

Maybe along this line, they will make sure the pickup is certified to be water tight up to a certain height, so that it can be used in flooded areas, areas with street flooding.

Also:

• If the bottom of the pickup truck is titanium plated to protect the battery pack in off-road conditions, that's also an excellent, non-corroding boat hull.
• The battery pack at the bottom is an excellent ship ballast without requiring a keel, which lowers the center of gravity well below the waterline. The Tesla Speedboat would be able to make crazy high speed turns without flipping - plus it could jump waves and be stable.
• As you say excellent flood escape and rescue vehicle as well, when there's a lot of debris in the water that is dangerous to most rescue boats.
• Submarine mode would require extra ballast, ballast tanks and oxygen tanks - the compressed air COPV of the Roadster 2020 and a ventilation system would be suitable as air supply that would last hours.