Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

I am always really curious how the after hours market works. Someone see's this delivery report and the SP after hours shooting up to almost 250 a share. Their conclusion? Sell it down to 240 a share. Is there that much manipulation after hours or are there people that actually think after hours is the best time to sell?

 

[ammulder]

So, did the sales and delivery employees achieve the double bonus for June deliveries?

 

[Chocochip]

You can’t make this stuff up. Sometimes it’s a good idea to step away from the keyboard and just wait a minute.

Well, I still wish they would have released these blowout numbers half an hour before the opening bell today, I think the impact would have been massive! I did suspect there was a small chance of a bear trap, and maybe that’s what we’re experiencing now.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Adam Jonas: What if Tesla DOESN’T Have a Demand Problem?

Wait for it....

“We expect bears and bulls to sell the bounce.”

In other words:

“We expect the stock to squeeze and then fade on this news.”

 

[powertoold]

There was never a demand problem, only a logistical and production problem.

 

[Chocochip]

Bragging time — this was my comment last Wednesday, on the topic of the leaked Elon email.

I'll go one further: if he felt there's a real chance they will fall below target, putting out this email (which he knows by now will reach investors by next day) would be even more damaging once delivery numbers are posted, as it would indicate that the company couldn't push hard enough. Sub-target deliveries without the email might be interpreted as "they couldn't get there no matter how hard they tried, the target was simply too high this Q".

Which leaves us with the option that he knows it's in the bag, but he's going for a blowout deliveries number.

Grain of salt, not advice, etc.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Yes, happened just today, within the last hour.



I could throw a bit more and manage the margin, but would prefer to just settle this an easier way.

Depending on your portfolio (and where the share price settles tomorrow), the margin call may go away by itself, as your portfolio’s value will go up while your margin stays the same.

 

[Scott7]

OT:

Ya know, I’ve read about 1000 of these on my iPad, and now you’re telling me I need to go back and read them all over again on my MacBook so I can appreciate the mouseovers????

Nope, just long press the XKCD image. You’ll see the image popover text just fine.

 

[Swampgator]

Tesla, with 3 models for sale, is coming close to beating BMW USA ( with 17 models). 2019

Tesla June 2019 US sales: 25,975 (est)
BMW June 2019 US sales: 31,627

I think Tesla gets them in Q3, especially with the Raven refresh now in full production.

Tesla Model 3 sold almost 3X as many as BMW 2,3,and 4 series...combined.

 

[mongo]

Another vote for a tablet-friendly interface here. Please especially no features that only show up with a “mouse over”. I don’t want to have to drive a gasoline-powered car to get from A to B, and I don’t want to have to lug around a laptop to know what is going on here.

Have no fear, mongo is here! With yet another factioid gleaned from a life of questionable focus.
xkcd: Coordinate Precision
https:// m.xkcd.com (drop the space, TMC keeps replacing the URL)
Has the image and click to reveal mouse over text.

Edit: and @Scott7 has added to my knowledgebase, you crafty ninja!

 

[tivoboy]

Your last bearish prediction of $150-$160 price levels during the big fall was a big miss though:

Well, at that time but as I have said before its not always that exact point in time.

Or:



Which you wrote on June 3 when we reached the all time low of $177 - and 20% below those levels would have been ~$140 levels...

When I made that post about "theres not support here" I think in the market we were at $192. So, yes, we dropped to $177 within days.

As I always, we'll see. I've lost money on these trades, ONCE
That's the problem with technical analysis that ignores the fundamentals.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Adam Jonas: concerns around sustainable demand

“Given the historically lumpy nature of Tesla’s intra-quarter deliveries, we would ask investors to prepare for a potential ‘air pocket’ in delivery data into 3Q. We acknowledge there is nothing tangibly negative from tonight’s release and the scope of the 2Q beat helps interrupt the negative stream of sentiment throughout much of the year. However, we expect concerns around sustainable demand, segment saturation, competitive launches and risks to the China story will continue to weigh on the stock in coming weeks.”

 

[mongo]

Adam Jonas: concerns around sustainable demand

“Given the historically lumpy nature of Tesla’s intra-quarter deliveries, we would ask investors to prepare for a potential ‘air pocket’ in delivery data into 3Q. We acknowledge there is nothing tangibly negative from tonight’s release and the scope of the 2Q beat helps interrupt the negative stream of sentiment throughout much of the year. However, we expect to repeat concerns around sustainable demand, segment saturation, competitive launches and risks to the China story which we hope will continue to weigh on the stock in coming weeks.”


FTFY

 

[tslagreen]

Adam Jonas: concerns around sustainable demand

“Given the historically lumpy nature of Tesla’s intra-quarter deliveries, we would ask investors to prepare for a potential ‘air pocket’ in delivery data into 3Q. We acknowledge there is nothing tangibly negative from tonight’s release and the scope of the 2Q beat helps interrupt the negative stream of sentiment throughout much of the year. However, we expect concerns around sustainable demand, segment saturation, competitive launches and risks to the China story will continue to weigh on the stock in coming weeks.”

Guy is a loser. Just admit you are wrong AJ!

 

[powertoold]

Segment saturation? You mean for cars that don't spew toxic fumes that people and countries are starting to realize may destroy our world?

 

[Navin]

Maybe tomorrow we will get a Scooby-Doo moment and we will see what sort of masked villain is behind “Adam Jonas”.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Adam Jonas: not clear how much of the much stronger deliveries then expected was about demand

“Not clear how much of this was due to improved outbound logistics, underlying demand, more attractive pricing, sales bonuses or pull-forward from 3Q after tax credit reduction. Tesla’s 2Q19 deliveries were 2x the number of all non-Tesla BEVs sold in the US market for all of 2018. TSLA came within earshot of our 3Q19 delivery estimate of 97.8k units. Based on reported deliveries YTD, if TSLA were to deliver 95k units in Q3 and Q4 that would put them at approximately 350k units for 2019, just shy of their full-year guidance of 360k-400k units.”

Lol, he seems puzzled about the whole thing... something must be wrong!

 

[Navin]

Adam Jonas: concerns around sustainable demand

“Given the historically lumpy nature of Tesla’s intra-quarter deliveries, we would ask investors to prepare for a potential ‘air pocket’ in delivery data into 3Q. We acknowledge there is nothing tangibly negative from tonight’s release and the scope of the 2Q beat helps interrupt the negative stream of sentiment throughout much of the year. However, we expect concerns around sustainable demand, segment saturation, competitive launches and risks to the China story will continue to weigh on the stock in coming weeks.”

Air pocket is a wink at tslaq and hot pockets i

 

[AZRI11]

July 4th, Beer, Bear, BBQ

 

[CyberDutchie]

And one more... Adam Jonas: unclear how new orders may compare to net new orders

“Orders generated during the quarter exceeded deliveries, driving a higher order backlog. While it is unclear how new orders may compare to net new orders, this additional commentary on the backlog helps sentiment around the stock into the new quarter.”