Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

This is also why Carsonight`s rumor/scoop about moving the "old" battery module line from GF1 to GF3 makes so much sense. Let`s incubate new technologies and machinery (new Grohmann module maker) at the home base first

and keep your best IP on your home base?!

 

[ggr]

Mod: Regarding @Troy's estimates:
1. We don't like the tone of attacking other members, it induces off-topic back-and-forth messages. It's all been said, no need to say it more.
2. @Troy, it is an explicit violation of the terms of service to use this forum to direct members to your own survey page.
--ggr

 

[humbaba]

After a significant under estimate of short interest I thought it would be informative to compare the current official numbers with @ihors3's actual estimates at the time. As it turns out, he published estimates on June 28th, which is what the most recent numbers are for. How did @ihors3 do?

$TSLA short interest is $9.22 bn; 41.36 mm shs shorted; 31.41% of float; 0.87% borrow fee. Shs shorted are down -2.27 mm, -5.20%, in June as its stock price rose +20.35%. Over the past week shs shorted increased by +103k, +0.25%, as its stock price rose +0.09%.

The official numbers (as found on marketwatch) are 41.4M -- in other words a rounding error.

So while his "secret sauce" methodology is, IMO, very brittle it clearly can produce very accurate predictions.

 

[Krugerrand]

But ignore his concluding remark at your peril:
“we believe the conviction, passion and time horizon of the prevailing bear case in the market may take several more months or quarters to break”.

Meh. It’s a hedged remark (may) with a quite flexible time frame (several more months OR quarters).

Let us know when he says something without a hedge and a set period of time, until then we can all throw the same darts at the board and do just as well in our predictions.

Any peril is squarely on the shoulders of the gamblers, same as it was yesterday, last week, last month, and same as it will be tomorrow, next week, next month and next year.

He hasn’t said anything new, interesting or helpful. It’s his JOB to provide ACCURATE information and thoughts on various companies/stocks for investors via in-depth research. He does, after all, have greater access to company information than any of us with private tours and special conference calls and information leaked via Consumer Reports and other organizations etc...

If he can’t do a better job than he has been doing, then either he’s purposely scamming clients/investors so the company he works for can take every penny from them they can (instead of working for his company by increasing client base and working for his clients by enriching them, which in turn enriches the company), or he has not talent, skills or abilities in his chosen profession-so might I suggest macrame.

 

[Skryll]

Context is everything. Example: I own land that's been degraded by a millennium of overgrazing; while in ancient times it surely was home to birch forest, today it's 50% poor grassland and 50% gravel barrens (well, and some iron bogs, but they're good and shall remain boggy). The canyon slopes are subject to landslides as a result of the degradation. Simple restoration of the soil by fertilizer (it's highly phosphorus and nitrogen deficient), manure, or seeding leguminous plants can increase the amount of carbon in the soil (and overland) dramatically in 5-10 years or so - about 10t/ha aboveground and ~120t/ha underground to the gravel barrens, somewhat less for the poor grasslands. Reforestation (taiga species) would add another ~80t/ha aboveground and ~50t/ha underground over several decades. So long as the biome remains "forest", the carbon sequestered will not decline, as new trees replace ones that die - indeed, mature trees would continue to seed the barrens around them, expanding their groves and continuing to lock up more carbon. So long as grasslands are not allowed to become overgrazed again, their carbon, too, will remain locked up.

I have 8ha. That's a lot of carbon sequestration potential just from restoration and reforestation - something like 2000t when all is said and done. Honestly, the only thing that stops me from doing more is how much money I have to sink into things like soil restoration or buying seedlings. Even the smallest conifer seedlings I can get are ~$2 each, which would mean tens of thousands of dollars in reforestation costs. If I want larger trees that get the job done sooner, they're even more expensive. I've already spent many hundreds of dollars on fertilizer, and probably need to spend thousands more to get phosphorus up to normal. And whether I do nitrogen from synthetic fertilizers, paying for dozens of manure spreader truckloads, or legume planting, that too will come with a significant price tag.

Or to put it another way... cash does sequester carbon.

(On that note, if anyone wants to sequester some carbon, you're more than welcome to support restoration or reforestation plans on my land - I'd do all the grunt work, and send photos of your plants Realistically, though, I expect this to just be a project that I slowly fund myself over the course of decades)

And water / weather is not an issue? Plenty of land in california but needs so much watering from remote sources...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If I had to make a wild guess for production for Q3, I'd assume they are running all their lines at 95% capacity, which would be about 6500/wk 3s and 2K/wk S+X, so let's say 8500/wk for 13 weeks, which would be about 100K. I picked 95% because I figure there will be brief lulls due to repairs, upgrades, and other tweaks on the line from time to time.

 

[immunogold]

If current Fremont production is bottlenecked by portions of the assembly line, it is possible that those portions of the line will be repurposed to GF-3, with new machines from Grohmann being installed at Fremont. This would facilitate rising production numbers at Fremont, and would comport with the plan to use repurposed GF-1 pack assembly equipment at GF-3 until revenue from GF-3 would enable purchase of the newest Grohmann equipment. This gets GF-3 started with the lowest possible capex, mitigates the difficulties in initiating completely “newfangled” equipment far from California/Nevada problem-solving expertise, protects IP, etc as numerous posters have already stated above.

TL;DR Newest Grohmann equipment may be installed at Fremont, and “flight-proven” Fremont equipment may be used, in part, to get GF-3 up and running with the least risk.

 

[Remus]

We could see quite a sales surge if the EV license plate limits are removed in Beijing! There are currently 3.4 million people waiting to buy cars for 0.1m annual permits.

“The quota for new energy vehicles available to car buyers in Beijing will remain at 60,000 in 2019, the same as last year, said Beijing Transport Commission on Wednesday. The quota for gasoline-powered cars will stay unchanged at 40,000.
Beijing introduced a license plate lottery system in 2011 to curb the growth rate of new automobiles. Under the system, potential car buyers have to participate in a lottery every two months for a purchase permit.
As of December 2018, more than 3 million people have registered with the lottery system to get a purchase permit, with the odds of winning a plate at 1 in 500.
While the quota for license plate has dropped from 240,000 in 2011 to 100,000 last year, the quota for new energy car has increased from 20,000 in 2014 to 60,000 as the city turns to electric vehicles to ease air pollution.
As of December 2018, more than 400,000 people have applied to buy a new energy vehicle. With the quota available this year, some applicants need to wait eight years to get plates.”​

The biggest obstacles for EV adoption in big cities of China is charging. Most people live in high rise condo only a fraction of them has dedicated parking spot. Only about half of those places allow installation of charging post.

 

[dc_h]

The biggest obstacles for EV adoption in big cities of China is charging. Most people live in high rise condo only a fraction of them has dedicated parking spot. Only about half of those places allow installation of charging post.

With the pace of change in China, I would expect every parking meter and parking location to have some charging in the next year or two. If we decided to make a rapid change in the US, it would not be hard to have a metering program on every urban street. The power is there,its just the payments processes.

 

[Tslynk67]

Any reason for the drop this morning, other than "meh"?

 

[Tim S]

Jonas is an unpopular fellow on these boards but he was bang on right when he implored Elon to raise capital at +350 prices. He may or may not be completely wrong with his updated sales forecasts (I personally think he is wrong).

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

 

[elasalle]

The biggest obstacles for EV adoption in big cities of China is charging. Most people live in high rise condo only a fraction of them has dedicated parking spot. Only about half of those places allow installation of charging post.

Not so sure ??
Living in high rises in cities, has not stopped people from having cars? So I am sure similar logic applies to electric cars. Parking issue is the same, more chargers and charge on demand and at location(mobile-chargers) will solve charging issue. As cost of Electricity decreases, charging at lower rates will not matter.

Having visited China recently, I think the people are very comfortable with concept of battery as Energy Store and transport use - lots of Electric bikes. FSD cannot come sooner for China - lower driving speeds and almost all are multi tasking on their cell phones.

We all know how much Govt is supporting EV, but it is also like China is upping it's over all game to get a cleaner environment. Saw lots of newly planted trees along roads - on suburbs/outskirts .. just my observations on a short trip .. cheers!!

+ as long as Charging is cheaper than gas, EV more efficient and durable than ICE EVs win.

 

[Thumper]

CFTC to hike components shipments to Tesla

Precision stamping service provider China FineBlanking Technology (CFTC) will increase monthly shipments of components for relays used in Tesla Model 3 from about 20,000 units currently to 40,000 beginning August 2019, according to industry sources.

CFTC to hike components shipments to Tesla

Looks like 360,000-400,000 might be conservative[/QUOTE]

Also the same component likely used in the Model Y!

 

[Remus]

With the pace of change in China, I would expect every parking meter and parking location to have some charging in the next year or two. If we decided to make a rapid change in the US, it would not be hard to have a metering program on every urban street. The power is there,its just the payments processes.

I am not so optimistic, based on my recent visit there. You should see how they park there.

 

[Tslynk67]

Lawsuit regarding espionage/theft of Tesla's Autopilot IP?

Haven't seen anything on that, got a link?

 

[UncaNed]

If you know where I can get 2-year-old seedlings for $0,35/tree in Iceland, by all means, please let me know (we have VAT and more expensive labour) I might be able to do cheaper than $2/tree from some of the Hveragerði supppliers, or in greater bulk. But buying ~300 a time in Reykjavík costs nearly $2 per tree for conifers. Also, the rate at which one can plant trees varies greatly on the tree size and ground type. In the degraded grassland when planting small seedling trees I have to clear grass around them so that they get sufficient light, which is time consuming. In some areas the soil is easy to work, while in others rocks make more work out of it. And in boggy areas when planting e.g. tamarack, or on steep slopes, getting around can be more difficult.

But I agree, you need to plant trees at scale to make a difference. I was just pointing out that funding reforestation does legitimately sequester carbon at scale. Carbon remains trapped in forests so long as they remain intact as forests.

Local state Forestry Divisions sell them, (lumber and pulp wood and wildlife for hunting is a significant economic thing around here). I guess production is a bit subsidized, and these are for cheap, easy-to-start seedlings.

 

[larmor]

Any reason for the drop this morning, other than "meh"?

Another reason why jpmorgan downgrades Tesla, shipping cocaine is more profitable:
Cargo ship owned by JPMorgan Chase seized by US with 20 tons of cocaine - CNN

 

[Remus]

Not so sure ??
Living in high rises in cities, has not stopped people from having cars? So I am sure similar logic applies to electric cars. Parking issue is the same, more chargers and charge on demand and at location(mobile-chargers) will solve charging issue. As cost of Electricity decreases, charging at lower rates will not matter.

Having visited China recently, I think the people are very comfortable with concept of battery as Energy Store and transport use - lots of Electric bikes. FSD cannot come sooner for China - lower driving speeds and almost all are multi tasking on their cell phones.

We all know how much Govt is supporting EV, but it is also like China is upping it's over all game to get a cleaner environment. Saw lots of newly planted trees along roads - on suburbs/outskirts .. just my observations on a short trip .. cheers!!

+ as long as Charging is cheaper than gas, EV more efficient and durable than ICE EVs win.

Recently came back from China too
Explained the benefits of Tesla to a bunch of programmers and secured one order, and changed several minds too.

But that order was already a maybe. I just helped him made up his mind. Several others need to make sure they get home charging, and according to them it's pretty complicated.

And people talk about battery fires, battery degradation, all the FUD you heard here.

 

[StealthP3D]

That’s assuming they actually release “feature complete”, as opposed to just having it working internally but not released(for safety reasons).

Mary: 2020 sales should be better than 2019 sales.
John: Well, that's assuming they sell ANY cars in 2020.
Mary:

 

[skybluecgreen]

Any reason for the drop this morning, other than "meh"?

Probably just digesting yesterday's gains but there was this mixed interview with Gene Munster:

Munster Expects Tesla's 'Bumpy Year' To Continue: 'This Story Remains Emotionally Charged' (NASDAQ:TSLA)