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The biggest obstacles for EV adoption in big cities of China is charging. Most people live in high rise condo only a fraction of them has dedicated parking spot. Only about half of those places allow installation of charging post.
I would have to imagine that China is working on changing that. But that said, can those people even afford cars?
Haven't seen anything on that, got a link?
Former employee emailed code to himself before leaving for a competitor.
 
and keep your best IP on your home base?!
Yeah, that too. Although, to be fair, as they have thousands of employees in Nevada, if a state with the resources of China wanted to steal the technology it would not be too difficult to get "a spy" employed at GF1 and get the secrets.

But yes, maybe have crossed their mind to keep industry-leading custom technology close to home initially.
 
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Mary: 2020 sales should be better than 2019 sales.
John: Well, that's assuming they sell ANY cars in 2020.
Mary: :rolleyes:

Note what Elon actually said on this topic and what I’m saying. Elon said they’d be “feature complete” by the end of the year. That means all features required to handle all driving tasks are present, but implies absolutely nothing about their accuracy or stability. It’s fully possible(and likely) that Tesla will initially have all the pieces, but in a state that’s too dangerous to release to the public, and that would still mean it’s “feature complete”.
 
With the pace of change in China, I would expect every parking meter and parking location to have some charging in the next year or two. If we decided to make a rapid change in the US, it would not be hard to have a metering program on every urban street. The power is there,its just the payments processes.
I keep wondering about mobile chargers. What would people pay for 50 miles in a bind?
 
Yeah, that too. Although, to be fair, as they have thousands of employees in Nevada, if a state with the resources of China wanted to steal the technology it would not be too difficult to get "a spy" employed at GF1 and get the secrets.

But yes, maybe have crossed their mind to keep industry-leading custom technology close to home initially.

After all, the best - really the only - long-term defense against IP theft is a rapid pace of innovation, as Musk so often reminds us.
 
Major Tesla (TSLA) investor urges Elon Musk to temper overly-optimistic targets

[Musk] would be better off modifying his approach. “One should, on the whole, try not to give too many targets that may not be attainable, with specific dates at establishment. And I don’t think one wants sudden reversals of policy. I hope that’s not too much for a major shareholder to ask,”

I would agree with this. Under promise and over deliver. Surprise on the upside instead of disappointing by missing overly optimistic goals. If he guided 90% of what he thinks, then he would significantly beat expectations with 95%, rather than disappoint if he only got 99%.
 
If I had to make a wild guess for production for Q3, I'd assume they are running all their lines at 95% capacity, which would be about 6500/wk 3s and 2K/wk S+X, so let's say 8500/wk for 13 weeks, which would be about 100K. I picked 95% because I figure there will be brief lulls due to repairs, upgrades, and other tweaks on the line from time to time.
I agree with these numbers except for your math... 8500 x 13 = 110,500. That's about right.
 
I keep wondering about mobile chargers. What would people pay for 50 miles in a bind?
This is very infrequent, so if someone were to start a business they would have to charge an amount that no one would pay. Tesla's display has so many warnings and so much information about how much you have left, that you really have to work at it to get into trouble. It even tells you not to exceed a certain speed to make it to your destination.
 
Major Tesla (TSLA) investor urges Elon Musk to temper overly-optimistic targets

[Musk] would be better off modifying his approach. “One should, on the whole, try not to give too many targets that may not be attainable, with specific dates at establishment. And I don’t think one wants sudden reversals of policy. I hope that’s not too much for a major shareholder to ask,”

I would agree with this. Under promise and over deliver. Surprise on the upside instead of disappointing by missing overly optimistic goals. If he guided 90% of what he thinks, then he would significantly beat expectations with 95%, rather than disappoint if he only got 99%.

That would demonstrate sales and marketing professionalism. It would dampen FUD and instill confidence in conservative and many investors. In addition it would demonstrate true leadership, maturity, and stability. But why start now when everything is going great? We all know that nothing Elon says or does impacts the stock price or confidence of the market.
 
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Major Tesla (TSLA) investor urges Elon Musk to temper overly-optimistic targets

[Musk] would be better off modifying his approach. “One should, on the whole, try not to give too many targets that may not be attainable, with specific dates at establishment. And I don’t think one wants sudden reversals of policy. I hope that’s not too much for a major shareholder to ask,”

I would agree with this. Under promise and over deliver. Surprise on the upside instead of disappointing by missing overly optimistic goals. If he guided 90% of what he thinks, then he would significantly beat expectations with 95%, rather than disappoint if he only got 99%.
The funny thing is that Elon's production estimates have steadily become more realistic. Fremont Model 3 production at 7k a week by the end of 2019 or Model Y production for Late 2020. Yet his FSD estimates are still wildly optimistic.

I would say this is progress at least since he loses way more credibility if he can't deliver on production/delivery guidance. That's largely the basis for the current share price.
 
That would demonstrate sales and marketing professionalism. It would dampen FUD and instill confidence in conservative and many investors. In addition it would demonstrate true leadership, maturity, and stability. But why start now when everything is going great? We all know that nothing Elon says or does impacts the stock price or confidence of the market.

Well, he just pulled off a major upside surprise like 9 days ago.
 
After a significant under estimate of short interest I thought it would be informative to compare the current official numbers with @ihors3's actual estimates at the time. As it turns out, he published estimates on June 28th, which is what the most recent numbers are for. How did @ihors3 do?



The official numbers (as found on marketwatch) are 41.4M -- in other words a rounding error.

So while his "secret sauce" methodology is, IMO, very brittle it clearly can produce very accurate predictions.

its not so much secret sauce as it is lack of all the market participant data

‘s3 data’ product consists of short interest and securities finance data, which is pretty cool.

subscribers to this product, in turn, give up their data to s3, hence allowing s3 to enhance its product offering

but not all market participants use s3’s product, therefore sometimes there can be a disconnect. it’s not the end of the world when there is such disconnect we witnessed last month. it’s just another tool in the toolbox.

what would be more important to know, and we won’t find out, is who is not in the pool of S3 data and how big their securities lending book is
 
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Earthquake not likely in NorCal Aftershock: Earthquake insurance to soar for many Californians

A long-term study known as the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) has troubling news for residents of some areas of Southern California in particular. According to the UCERF3, Northern California is less likely to see the "Big One" than Southern California is, and it specifically cited danger in the Los Angeles area

Other areas of the state, including portions of San Diego and Orange counties and eastern San Francisco, will see reductions in premiums, Pomeroy said. In the case of eastern San Francisco, insurance costs will decrease modestly because the UCERF3's model predicts the likelihood of strong earthquakes is lower in Northern California, where tectonic plates have already adjusted.