Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

The next ship to the EU, Triumph Ace, has cleared SF Bay and is headed to Panama.

My impression that the wave is unwinding a bit more this month already?

 

[Carl Raymond]

May or may not be true, but we are so far away from having the scale of EV sales to have this impact that this is not relevant for next 4-5 years.

Two thoughts.

Oil price is extremely inelastic. An economy that wants one more litre of petroleum than is available means that there’s an auction for the last litre. Somebody has to miss out and the price is bid up till that person drops out of the bidding. Thus reduce oil demand by one litre, just one EV, and the effect on price kicks in. There’s a line. Just a small number of EVs can pull an economy below the line and remove the price pressure.

Also, it’s a bit regional. Norway, California. Can these places ever charge a high price at the pump? Won’t people just do more EV miles and fewer ICE miles, whenever they have the choice? More and more regions will join these economically advantaged oil price capped ‘new economy zones’.

 

[StealthP3D]

It still seems that not all, but lot of the FUD was driven by some fat cats (you know what I mean - not your cat) and they have entered the boat now - join what you can't beat.

If the Short Interest Chart posted by Kenbchang a little over an hour ago is an accurate reflection of current short interest, only down about 10% from it's recent high of 45 million shares short, then how can your interpretation be correct? It looks like there are still 41 million shares sold short.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Two thoughts.

Oil price is extremely inelastic. An economy that wants one more litre of petroleum than is available means that there’s an auction for the last litre. Somebody has to miss out and the price is bid up till that person drops out of the bidding. Thus reduce oil demand by one litre, just one EV, and the effect on price kicks in. There’s a line. Just a small number of EVs can pull an economy below the line and remove the price pressure.

Also, it’s a bit regional. Norway, California. Can these places ever charge a high price at the pump? Won’t people just do more EV miles and fewer ICE miles, whenever they have the choice? More and more regions will join these economically advantaged oil price capped ‘new economy zones’.

California does charge a high price compared to other states. Maybe other states will increase their fuel tax now that BEVs are more affordable.

 

[kbM3]

My impression that the wave is unwinding a bit more this month already?

Wouldn’t wave unwinding entail ships leaving in the last month of the quarter?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Care to have a laugh?

(this is 3 days old and I don't know if it was already posted):

Aston Martin boss: Brexit strategy "laughable", EV policy "non-sensical", idea of full autonomy "absurd" | Autocar

Some quotes from this genius:

“EV is one route, it is not a panacea. The bit that pisses me off is when they try to pick a technological winner,” said Palmer. “The UK is trying to get on the front foot and say it wants to be a leader in electric vehicle technology but the truth is that nobody knows what the right technology is for 20-30 years time.

“Politicians can’t be taken seriously if they talk about 30-40 years ahead,” he added. “They are concerned with taking power and staying in power over a relatively short time, and they know they won’t have accountability over the much longer-term.

“Government should identify problems and set policy. The engineers should define the solutions. I am pretty sure that 40 years from now there will be solutions beyond battery-electric vehicles to consider. Why not synthetic fuels that are carbon neutral? Or where will hydrogen fit in? There are so many answers, some not even thought of yet.

“If reducing CO2 is the goal then diesel is a good solution. If it’s improving air quality then perhaps not. But which is it? They’re all mixed up. They are trying to bet on technology that they don’t understand.”

---

"Unless it is in a geo-fenced area then you are not going to get full autonomy in the way many people are describing it," he said. "The idea of full autonomy being widespread in my lifetime is absurd. Full Level 5 systems are a moonshot.

"Yes, there will be a typical automotive cycle through stages, from Level 0 upwards - albeit with the mixed section of Level 3 when the car takes control but can hand back to the driver being skipped if commonsense prevails, in my opinion - but the idea of Level 5 in somewhere that isn't geo-fenced isn't comprehensible."

---

 

[Tslynk67]

Wouldn’t wave unwinding entail ships leaving in the last month of the quarter?

Well I think they had to give some priority to NA a-last month due to the tax credit cut-off, but it's my impression that ships are leaving earlier this quarter than the last.

I guess someone actually has the fact to hand, if they'd care to share...?

 

[madodel]

Care to have a laugh?

(this is 3 days old and I don't know if it was already posted):

Aston Martin boss: Brexit strategy "laughable", EV policy "non-sensical", idea of full autonomy "absurd" | Autocar

Some quotes from this genius:

“EV is one route, it is not a panacea. The bit that pisses me off is when they try to pick a technological winner,” said Palmer. “The UK is trying to get on the front foot and say it wants to be a leader in electric vehicle technology but the truth is that nobody knows what the right technology is for 20-30 years time.

“Politicians can’t be taken seriously if they talk about 30-40 years ahead,” he added. “They are concerned with taking power and staying in power over a relatively short time, and they know they won’t have accountability over the much longer-term.

“Government should identify problems and set policy. The engineers should define the solutions. I am pretty sure that 40 years from now there will be solutions beyond battery-electric vehicles to consider. Why not synthetic fuels that are carbon neutral? Or where will hydrogen fit in? There are so many answers, some not even thought of yet.

“If reducing CO2 is the goal then diesel is a good solution. If it’s improving air quality then perhaps not. But which is it? They’re all mixed up. They are trying to bet on technology that they don’t understand.”

---

"Unless it is in a geo-fenced area then you are not going to get full autonomy in the way many people are describing it," he said. "The idea of full autonomy being widespread in my lifetime is absurd. Full Level 5 systems are a moonshot.

"Yes, there will be a typical automotive cycle through stages, from Level 0 upwards - albeit with the mixed section of Level 3 when the car takes control but can hand back to the driver being skipped if commonsense prevails, in my opinion - but the idea of Level 5 in somewhere that isn't geo-fenced isn't comprehensible."

---

Where is the "bizarre" button?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So this may or may not be off topic, depending on how you look at it.

You may or may not know that I am waiting for a replacement door after managing to mangle my original. The service center is very apologetic and uses the reason that the parts department in Fremont is being moved to a new location and that is causing a temporary slow down in parts delivery. Anybody heard about this being the case or am I just getting snowed?

Dan

 

[RobStark]

So this may or may not be off topic, depending on how you look at it.

You may or may not know that I am waiting for a replacement door after managing to mangle my original. The service center is very apologetic and uses the reason that the parts department in Fremont is being moved to a new location and that is causing a temporary slow down in parts delivery. Anybody heard about this being the case or am I just getting snowed?

Dan

Maybe Parts Distribution is finally being moved to Lathrop?

 

[traxila]

So this may or may not be off topic, depending on how you look at it.

You may or may not know that I am waiting for a replacement door after managing to mangle my original. The service center is very apologetic and uses the reason that the parts department in Fremont is being moved to a new location and that is causing a temporary slow down in parts delivery. Anybody heard about this being the case or am I just getting snowed?

Dan

I have been waiting two months for parts for cosmetic repairs. Being told end of month. Didn’t really ask for explanation. Is par for the course until Tesla figures this out maybe five years from now unfortunately. My guess anyway.

 

[RobStark]

Care to have a laugh?

(this is 3 days old and I don't know if it was already posted):

Aston Martin boss: Brexit strategy "laughable", EV policy "non-sensical", idea of full autonomy "absurd" | Autocar

Some quotes from this genius:

“EV is one route, it is not a panacea. The bit that pisses me off is when they try to pick a technological winner,” said Palmer. “The UK is trying to get on the front foot and say it wants to be a leader in electric vehicle technology but the truth is that nobody knows what the right technology is for 20-30 years time.

“Politicians can’t be taken seriously if they talk about 30-40 years ahead,” he added. “They are concerned with taking power and staying in power over a relatively short time, and they know they won’t have accountability over the much longer-term.

“Government should identify problems and set policy. The engineers should define the solutions. I am pretty sure that 40 years from now there will be solutions beyond battery-electric vehicles to consider. Why not synthetic fuels that are carbon neutral? Or where will hydrogen fit in? There are so many answers, some not even thought of yet.

“If reducing CO2 is the goal then diesel is a good solution. If it’s improving air quality then perhaps not. But which is it? They’re all mixed up. They are trying to bet on technology that they don’t understand.”

---

"Unless it is in a geo-fenced area then you are not going to get full autonomy in the way many people are describing it," he said. "The idea of full autonomy being widespread in my lifetime is absurd. Full Level 5 systems are a moonshot.

"Yes, there will be a typical automotive cycle through stages, from Level 0 upwards - albeit with the mixed section of Level 3 when the car takes control but can hand back to the driver being skipped if commonsense prevails, in my opinion - but the idea of Level 5 in somewhere that isn't geo-fenced isn't comprehensible."

---

Andy Palmer was considered the Prince Advocate of BEVs while at Nissan.

He talks as though Aston Martin is a Big 10 OEM, as if Aston Martin has relevance in the greater world. Instead of a boutique coachbuilder for the ultra wealthy, which is what Aston Martin is in fact.

Aston Martin chief executive faces vote against £1.2m salary

 

[Off Shore]

I think it's more the order of the post. People start at their first unread message and read and reply, then they see the Mod's post but it's too late. If there was a way for Mod's to mark posts as (OT - do not reply or OT - reply in X thread), that would go a long way to solving the problem. The problem with other threads is that there are so many threads, I suspect that people only look at this thread plus the threads that are marked as being followed. Often the new spin off threads (the ones created by Mods spinning them off) are overlooked. It's hard enough just to keep up with this thread.

Alternatively, (and I apologize for continuing OT though it's my remit) one could wait until catching up before replying, thereby discovering several others have already provided the same response.

Edit: As I just demonstrated, to my embarrassment.

 

[madodel]

Went down the rabbit hole with Apple service phone system today. The Apple Store replaced the keyboard on my 2 year old Macbook Pro, a known problem with keys sticking. While they had my computer last week they decided they should replace the logic board, which I knew was extremely integrated but I said sure, even though it meant waiting another 3 days before getting my laptop back. I picked the Macbook up from the Apple store on Friday. Since they replaced the logic board they replaced the SSD, but not a problem since I had backed everything up, right? No problem if they put the same size SSD in that was in there when I dropped it off. Took me an hour or so to activate the new system and install the latest operating system and updates (they installed what was on it 2 years ago when I bought it, which I knew they would, but can't restore from backup to a deprecated OS level in Apple's Time Machine) and then it took 4 hours to restore from my backup, which I thought was a bit long. When it was done first thing I noticed is there was almost no free drive space. Turns out the logic board they ordered was one with a 1TB SSD on it. Mine had 2TB, at least when I brought it in. So first thing this morning I called and had to deal with their superior intelligent phone system. After 3 times of it connecting me to the main Apple Service instead of the store where they did the work, I finally screamed "I WANT TO SPEAK TO THE STORE MANAGER!". Apparently the phone intellect sensed I was angry and finally connected me to the store I kept calling. Sad it had to come to that but at least I got a live person in the place I needed to talk to. The folks at the Apple store were great, it was just getting to them. I'm getting a brand new Macbook Pro because of the screwup. Reminds me of the kind of treatment I use to get from Tesla when I was a guinea pig with my SIgnature X. Now it is impossible to get a live person on the phone with Tesla Service no matter how loud I scream. They weren't even keen on talking to me in the chat app until I made it clear I was pissed not being able to speak to a live person and their app only allowing me to choose service centers nowhere near me. Maybe they need to get some of those NN people to work on the logic for selecting service centers in the app. Or maybe just give people the chance to speak to a live person if all else fails.

 

[RobStark]

Weekend O.T.

French President Emmanuel Macron announces creation of French space force

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I have been waiting two months for parts for cosmetic repairs. Being told end of month. Didn’t really ask for explanation. Is par for the course until Tesla figures this out maybe five years from now unfortunately. My guess anyway.

Let's make this the last post on service and repair experiences. The first one had some merit (did parts distribution move from Fremont to Lathrop?), but we don't need more examples. Books and veganism are one thing, but please save us from the service lithany...

 

[PeterJA]

Word-of-mouth has spread to one of the largest progressive political sites. The article currently has 88 Likes, which put it on the Recommended list.

"...What the Model 3 is really like to live with I won’t know for five years, or ten. I tend to hang onto vehicles a long time and trade them only when it’s clear that the utility / cost curve is getting badly out of whack. But at the moment, I definitely have things to say about Tesla’s AutoPilot, the supercharger network, the system of software upgrades, and the value for dollar of the car. I’ll say those things … soon."

An old man and his Tesla​

 

[neroden]

From the 'Musk Halo' portfolio, Tim Urban got a preview of Tuesday's Neuralink news today (Tim is the author of the 'Wait But Why' series on Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink from a couple of years back).

His mind was blown. Should make for an interesting Tues.

Tim Urban on Twitter

Perhaps we'll have some small impact on TSLA next week due to this.

Just....I hope Musk does not experiment on himself. Using experimental Neuralink tech, fine, but using it on Musk is too big a risk.

 

[neroden]

Previously, I thought this also. And it concerned me because cheap oil and gas would slow the transition to renewables. But now I think oil interests stand to lose a lot if prices are low.

Sooooo, this belongs in the Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla thread. But here goes...

Back in the days of Texas gushers, oil interests were fine with low oil prices. But those don't exist anymore -- they were all used up. The oil remaining is much harder to extract, much more expensive.

And this is because of "peak oil", which Hubbert talked about. This is where peak oil plays into things. Too many of the peak-oil people went nuts because they didn't understand the economic response to peak oil, and said stupid things because they thought the world needed oil.

But in fact, the result of peak oil is that the production cost of oil is much higher than it used to be. Which means that the oil companies need to have much higher prices in order to make a profit. Which means that it's much easier for alternatives to oil to be cheaper.

Essentially the oil price has a ceiling which is the price of substitution, and a floor which is the cost of additional production. The floor price keeps going up due to peak oil, and the ceiling price keeps going down due to developments in electric vehicles. Economically, after a while, they cross; the ceiling price is below the floor price and it's uneconomic to produce any oil at all.

In practice it's messier than that because it takes time to substitute -- people will keep driving a gasoline car because of the one-time costs of switching to electric, even though the TCO is already better for electric cars. But that is just a second-order effect. Another second-order effect is that nobody switches back even if the TCO temporarily appears better for gas cars due to low oil prices.

And they are powerful and have access to certain triggers that can help keep oil prices high. This concerns me even more because one of the most powerful triggers is encouraging war in oil-producing countries by marginalizing their governments and then attacking them. Sanctions on oil from marginalized companies works too, but not as well.

Like the Saudis are trying to do to Iran.

OPEC might add member nations if oil is threatened and be even more effective at cutting production.

They basically did and OPEC is run by Russia now...

The bottom line is oil might not go to stratospheric levels but it's also unlikely to become permanently cheap anytime soon simply because EV's have helped reduce demand. Unless oil interests are not effective at maximizing the value of their assets. I welcome higher oil prices caused by purposefully constricting supply but war is not a humanitarian way to maintain the value of oil.

Agreed.

 

[neroden]

I'd expect this process to continue, up until a point where there's basically just actuators control and core physics engine remaining on the procedural side

You'll need a law-enforcement engine too. Fuzzy neural-network matching doesn't typically cut the mustard in legal compliance.

BTW., I believe Elon's "AI driven rain sensor" experiment from a year ago was the dry run for this, and Karpathy's team has proven that neural networks can replace almost arbitrary physical sensors - even a $5 rain sensor.

That rain sensor still doesn't work very well though, does it. Not that the $5 sensor worked well either. This just goes to show that these problems are hard.