Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

OT

Although less killing of more sentient animals is better,

Sigh. OK, in the spirit of killing the food conversation, I will point out that studies show that eating insects is one of the most ecologically sound things you can do -- sounder than eating farmed agriculture, or farmed or wild mammals or birds or reptiles or crustaceans.

There also seems to be actual evidence that they don't feel pain in the same manner as mammals or birds or reptiles or crustaceans; they don't react the way we'd expect from a "hurt animal" to things which ought to cause pain, like leg damage.

How many off you are eating insects yet? Why not?

E.g. Eating bugs is a lot greener than eating cattle.

We should be eating more bugs, yes.

And this is why I don't even try to convince people to eat more ecologically. :sigh:

 

[mongo]

Wouldn’t wave unwinding entail ships leaving in the last month of the quarter?

Batch building and shipping at the start of a quarter does not mean that all deliveries are still planned for the same quarter.

Options:

• Flip Fremont between domestic and export multiple times per quarter
  
• Buffer shipments at either end to spread out deliveries

If you buffer, you might as well fill ships to get a cost savings. Cost savings of bulk shipment may outway cost savings of spread arrival.

 

[neroden]

Yes, there are two budgets. One is the total number of networks (I guess layers) they can have in the car.

I wonder what the current limit is. Humans effectively use thousands. Too low a limit on number of different specialized NNs might be a reason why they'd need another generation of hardware.

 

[EVNow]

Care to have a laugh?

(this is 3 days old and I don't know if it was already posted):

Aston Martin boss: Brexit strategy "laughable", EV policy "non-sensical", idea of full autonomy "absurd" | Autocar

Some quotes from this genius:

Ironic - since he was one of the big backers and the VP in charge of Nissan Leaf.

 

[neroden]

Two thoughts.

Oil price is extremely inelastic. An economy that wants one more litre of petroleum than is available means that there’s an auction for the last litre. Somebody has to miss out and the price is bid up till that person drops out of the bidding. Thus reduce oil demand by one litre, just one EV, and the effect on price kicks in. There’s a line. Just a small number of EVs can pull an economy below the line and remove the price pressure.

Fascinatingly, oil supply is highly inelastic in the short term, highly elastic in the three-year timeframe. Oil demand is again highly inelastic in the short term, highly elastic in the two-year timeframe.

This naturally leads to wild swings in the oil price.

 

[Fact Checking]

Weekend OT, Neuralink:

Just....I hope Musk does not experiment on himself. Using experimental Neuralink tech, fine, but using it on Musk is too big a risk.

So I have a few guesses, and my hypothesis is that the Neuralink brain implant is going to have the following design:

• The mesh is syringe injected into the brain in a low complexity procedure that can be done with only local anesthesia (no brain surgery). The fine mesh 'grows' into brain tissue and creates neural connections with the brain over the course of a couple of weeks/months.
  
• The mesh is going to be potentially wireless - i.e. it could generate low intensity radio waves within the brain from body heat - which signals are picked up by a nearby device masked as jewelry, such as a necklace. (This removes the problem of a power source and allows miniaturization.)
  
• The mesh-implant will have a permanent deactivation procedure after which it is inert and biologically neutral - and since the mesh will have very low overall volume, it can stay in the brain indefinitely even after deactivation.

I.e. I think a key feature of the Neuralink mesh is going to be to have very low medical risks. And yes, I too hope that even if it's considered 'low risk', Elon won't experiment on himself and allows volunteers to be the brain implant pioneers.

 

[PeterJA]

We should be eating more bugs, yes.

And this is why I don't even try to convince people to eat more ecologically. :sigh:

No need to sigh. Those crazy Californians are leading the way (in the US), like with those crazy electric cars.

USA Top Restaurants Serving Insects - Wikitravel

 

[neroden]

Now it is impossible to get a live person on the phone with Tesla Service no matter how loud I scream. They weren't even keen on talking to me in the chat app until I made it clear I was pissed not being able to speak to a live person and their app only allowing me to choose service centers nowhere near me. Maybe they need to get some of those NN people to work on the logic for selecting service centers in the app. Or maybe just give people the chance to speak to a live person if all else fails.

If they don't fix this, Tesla is DEAD, and I'm not kidding. DEAD. It doesn't matter that they're in the lead on everything else. If people with problems cannot get through to a live person who can help, the company actually will see demand crash and it actually will go bankrupt.

What the HELL is going on, and can we get someone to ask about this at the earnings call? Zach Shahan? This is a very very serious risk for the company.

This is the only thing which any Tesla investor should be focused on. The only thing. Service communications are deteriorating to the point that it is threatening the viability of the company.

 

[neroden]

Weekend OT, Neuralink:



So I have a few guesses, and my hypothesis is that the Neuralink brain implant is going to have the following design:

• The mesh is syringe injected into the brain in a low complexity procedure that can be done with only local anesthesia (no brain surgery). The fine mesh 'grows' into brain tissue and creates neural connections with it over the course of a couple of weeks/months.
  
• The mesh is going to be potentially wireless - i.e. it could generate low intensity radio waves within the brain from body heat - which signals are picked up by a nearby device, such a necklace. This removes the problem of a power source and allows miniaturization.
  
• The mesh-implant will have a permanent deactivation procedure after which it is inert and biologically neutral - and since the mesh will have very low overall volume, it can stay in the brain indefinitely even after deactivation.

I.e. I think a key feature of the Neuralink mesh is going to be to have very low medical risks.

Nobody knows how to do any of that safely and it all has serious medical risks. Even if it goes right 99% of the time, do you want a 1/100 chance that Musk gets a brain infection or allergic reaction and dies? Not acceptable. Tesla board needs to prohibit him from trying it on himself until he quits working for Tesla.

 

[Fact Checking]

Nobody knows how to do any of that safely and it all has serious medical risks.

Absolutely, see my (late) edit that adds that I agree that Elon shouldn't experiment on himself.

 

[EVNow]

We should be eating more bugs, yes.

But by eating more bugs, you are starving birds etc that rely on insects to survive

 

[STARR X]

My impression that the wave is unwinding a bit more this month already?

It was noted elsewhere that the Decatur GA service center lot was empty of cars.

 

[PeterJA]

But by eating more bugs, you are starving birds etc that rely on insects to survive

Nah, humans are eating farm-raised bugs.

Farming Crickets | Entomo Farms

Chemical agriculture is killing the bugs that feed birds, and the bees that pollinate the plants that feed humans.

Neonicotinoid pesticides are slowly killing bees

 

[mongo]

OT

The mesh is syringe injected into the brain in a low complexity procedure that can be done with only local anesthesia (no brain surgery). The fine mesh 'grows' into brain tissue and creates neural connections with the brain over the course of a couple of weeks/months.

A syringe is too small a diameter to hold a useful volume. In addition, the angle would be opposite of what you would want for unfurling. Placement and coverage of the different regions requires direct manipulation. In addition, brain surgeries are often performed with the patient conscious to map functional locations.

The mesh is going to be potentially wireless - i.e. it could generate low intensity radio waves within the brain from body heat - which signals are picked up by a nearby device masked as jewelry, such as a necklace. (This removes the problem of a power source and allows miniaturization.)

Temperature is not harvestable for energy, temperature gradients are. A mesh in cranial fluid would not have a delta to work with. Near field inductive would be a potential option, but I think the data quantities and front end signal processing requires a port to the outside.

 

[Unpilot]

Brain implants...bug eating...peak oil....I think Tesla needs to start a solar powered bug farm run by a ex big oil exec. Who is wearing a brain implant.....right?

 

[STARR X]

But by eating more bugs, you are starving birds etc that rely on insects to survive

Ever heard of an ant farm?

 

[Mike Smith]

Hi folks,

notorious lurker coming out of the shadows here I've been reading the forum for the last two three months and it has helped me a lot staying sane through that big drop we saw (current average entry point is 300$, and didn't sell any throughout). Thanks for the interesting analyses and the optimism!

Good news is, I have a chunk of dry powder arriving on Monday. The largest part is going into normal shares, but I am also looking to invest in some mid to long-term call options and was wondering which options you guys find especially appealing right now. Have been buying twice before on advice of @anthonyj , and have been very happy with those calls. Thanks man!

Some call options I am considering:

1. 300 Mar 20 2020 22$/call
2. 420 Dec 16 2020 15$
3. 500 Dec 16 2023 50$

What are your thoughts on these? Would you rather buy sth else and if so why?
Does it make sense to average between Monday and after earnings? (Thinking probably not, maybe i'll do a 2/3 1/3 split or so)

PS: sorry for the typo in my username. Am debating whether to reach out to an admin to fix it or leave it be bc it makes my username more whompy

Bare in mind that in the case of a sale, buyout, merger, or privatization you could instantly lose nearly all of your money. This is a big danger with far out the money calls.

 

[jerry33]

Temperature is not harvestable for energy, temperature gradients are. A mesh in cranial fluid would not have a delta to work with. Near field inductive would be a potential option, but I think the data quantities and front end signal processing requires a port to the outside.

Since there is already an outside port, it could be solar powered. (Well, it's less intrusive than a hemato-powered generator)

 

[Hock1]

Bare in mind that in the case of a sale, buyout, merger, or privatization you could instantly lose nearly all of your money. This is a big danger with far out the money calls.

Is there a TMC board for long-term equity investors, only? I.e., no self-deluded swing traders, options "experts" and other losers? Asking for a friend.

 

[RFernatt]

No need to sigh. Those crazy Californians are leading the way (in the US), like with those crazy electric cars.

USA Top Restaurants Serving Insects - Wikitravel

OT: Just wash'em down with a big glass of this...

Scientists Think Cockroach Milk Could Be The Next Superfood, And We Wish We Were Kidding