Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

I don't know your specific situation obviously, but If there is a reason that you can't share details here, make sure that this reason doesn't implicate you or someone else in insider trading.

Why?

What's somebody gonna do?

Call the SEC onnem'??

Like we do with the short's insider trading?

 

[Sudre]

I would say it was a pretty good day considering it appears about 50% of shares were shorted according to volumebot.com and all they could do was hold TSLA on the upper BB. Things seem to be improving. I hope this is not simply a buy the rumor thing.

OH and the cat and dog avatars are for the birds!

 

[Thekiwi]

I would say it was a pretty good day considering it appears about 50% of shares were shorted according to volumebot.com and all they could do was hold TSLA on the upper BB. Things seem to be improving. I hope this is not simply a buy the rumor thing.

OH and the cat and dog avatars are for the birds!

#SquadGoalsForTheFlock

Indeed a positive performance today. While not yet there, $265 is a 50% increase in share price off the March lows.

Shorts who entered under $200 will be hurting, but for those not on margin they likely will stay short until they see evidence that their short thesis is well and truly kaput (just like a lot of longs who got in over $300 didn’t sell despite steep on paper losses because the bull thesis is still intact). I think the Q2 delivery number was the 1st sucker punch for shorts, and Q3 guidance might be another big followup blow, with Q3 earnings/Q4 guidance/Shanghai start being the knockout punch for many.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

but for those not on margin they likely will stay short until they see evidence that their short thesis is well and truly kaput (just like a lot of longs who got in over $300 didn’t sell despite steep on paper losses because the bull thesis is still intact)

Not quite the same. The bulls could hold on literally to any price at all, 0 included. Shorts are essentially always on margin, since losses are potentially infinite. No matter how much money they have, there exists some price where every short would be margin called.

 

[ggies07]

Custom chips! The connection from Tesla to Neuralink.......now it's on topic and can stay in this thread!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla is NOT partnering with Disney for Tomorrowland's Speedway attraction

 

[Antares Nebula]

This may be of interest to anyone who is on the fence about investing in Tesla, and also anyone who averaged TSLA at higher prices (e.g. > $300). This is not for anyone who wants assurances or proof. Treat this as one person's ramblings.

I thought autonomous FSD robotaxis would not be ready for many, many years, with only a 30% probability. I've given technical reasons for this in prior posts, and these reasons are still valid. However, I found some missing pieces to the puzzle, so I've changed my mind.

Excluding regulatory issues, I'm now confident that safe autonomy and/or a robotaxi service will be ready in the next year or two, pretty much along Elon Musk's time frame or perhaps a year longer. I have about 80% conviction in this. More importantly, I'm pretty sure of the reasons for EM being so confident about this, to the point of being smug.

However, the market will not believe autonomy or robotaxies are possible until it's obvious. This could happen end of this year or the next, but it will happen when Tesla decides to reveal their hand. Until then, there may be better entry points. With all the shorts, there might even be better entry points for a short while after it's obvious, just like the delayed run up after deliveries last quarter.

I've doubled my position in TSLA today and intend to invest substantially more over the next month. The timing is bad because Tesla is up due to other positive news, but +/- 30% in the short term won't matter if I'm right.

The bad news: I can't share details. So why post this at all?

1. Correcting my past posts
2. Giving back what I can
3. "I told you so" rights

Disclaimer: This is absolutely not investment advice.

Perhaps you've found something. I can't say without knowing more. But can I ask WHEN you came to know this info and WHEN you think Musk became aware of this.

The reason I ask is that money talks (and BS walks). If Musk was aware of this fact by the recent capital raise (around May 5th or so), then Tesla could have raised equity at a much higher share price by revealing this info to a select group of investors with an NDA. Even otherwise, with such a silver bullet or trump card, there is no way the share price would have dived to 180, much less break 300 (after all, you're willing to double down here at 250 based on this knowledge). Tesla, Musk, and upper mgmt would have used this knowledge to secure capital and support the share price. It would have been extremely foolish and reckless not to.

Also, you would not see JB and other executives selling their shares in droves. And possibly there would not have been as many executive departures. (Not to say that they don't believe in the story, but what you're talking about is a sliver bullet.)

 

[powertoold]

Also, you would not see JB and other executives selling their shares in droves.

Lost me there

 

[Antares Nebula]

Lost me there

Let me clarify, JB is still a believer and holds a signif amount of shares. But its no secret that he has been selling lots of shares on a frequent basis, esp of late (to the point where even many bulls thought that he may be leaving Tesla). However, like they say, insiders sell shares for many reasons, but buy only for one. JB may need the money for any number of reasons (maybe for his new startup, for example). But my point is that if FSD is a sure thing in the next year or two, JB and others would minimize their sales and wait at least a year or two -- surely they can get a bridge loan by signing their shares as collateral (like Musk).

Again, I'm not saying FSD is not going to happen in a year or two. I'm just not aware of any silver bullet as the above poster mentioned that allows me to double down today with hopes of getting a definite reward in two years time. May happen, may not. I'm a long term investor and believe in many aspects of the Tesla story. Timing however is hard to say.

 

[powertoold]

Let me clarify, JB is still a believer and holds a signif amount of shares. But its no secret that he has been selling lots of shares on a frequent basis, esp of late (to the point where even many bulls thought that he may be leaving Tesla).

Show us. I don't believe this is true. JB sells small # of shares on a routine basis.

 

[Green Pete]

Let me clarify, JB is still a believer and holds a signif amount of shares. But its no secret that he has been selling lots of shares on a frequent basis, esp of late (to the point where even many bulls thought that he may be leaving Tesla). However, like they say, insiders sell shares for many reasons, but buy only for one. JB may need the money for any number of reasons (maybe for his new startup, for example). But my point is that if FSD is a sure thing in the next year or two, JB and others would minimize their sales and wait at least a year or two -- surely they can get a bridge loan by signing their shares as collateral (like Musk).

Again, I'm not saying FSD is not going to happen in a year or two. I just not aware of any silver bullet as the above poster mentioned that allows me to double down today with hopes of getting a definite reward in two years time. May happen, may not. I'm a long term investor and believe in many aspects of the Tesla story. Timing however is hard to say.

My guess is Musk would be willing to let JB invest in NeuraLink, Boring Co, SpaceX, and whatever else musk secretly has cooked up. I would love to invest in any of those things. Its probably the only investment I would be more excited to throw money at than Tesla. But Musk will never take those public, so unless I somehow become best buds with him theres no chance of that happening Im guessing. And yes, I think 200 dollars invested boring co today will be worth more than 200 in Tesla. I still think Tesla is going to go gangbusters, but I think Boring Co and NeuraLink are so small that a small investment in either of those companies has way more bang for their buck than 200 buck invested in Tesla today.

 

[strangethingintheland]

quarterly stats are in for safety.
Tesla Vehicle Safety Report
again, I'm not entirely pleased with the statistical meaningfulness here, as it certainly does not yet capture apples-to-apples comparisons (all cars vs. new cars, highway vs. all around driving, etc.).
but it's something. and I consider it investor relevant as they are building a long-term anti-FUD set of data that hopefully improves (not just the data, but the appropriateness of the data) over time.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Show us. I don't believe this is true. JB sells small # of shares on a routine basis.

It's actually been discussed ad infinitum on TMC, so I don't want to rehash it. Also, I don't want to link to Electrek and other "hit pieces". Just google it. I think he sold about $60M worth so far (with about $3-4M in May alone), which is substantial for him. At today's price, he has about $75M worth left.

 

[Singer3000]

From the MotorTrend interview:

“I think there's a fundamental disconnect to the business publications and for a lot of people from New York that are in the financial sector. They're just out of touch, and they don't know it. Whereas if you're in Silicon Valley or you're in L.A. and you see Teslas everywhere and people are driving them and then you have lots of friends if you're in this neck of the woods who are driving a Tesla and love it, then it's obvious what the situation is. But if you're in Manhattan and just getting driven around in a limousine, you're maybe not in touch.”

Mic drop.

Of all the puzzling quotes we sometimes get from Musk, this one from the same interview has got me thinking:

"We've got a really exciting product lineup, just when we're talking about Tesla specifically, and we can talk more about the future but we've got the Tesla Semi, the new Roadster, later this year hopefully we'll be unveiling the Tesla pickup truck, and Model Y will be going into production".

The interview was done at SpaceX and perhaps he'd just come from a Starlink meeting (or Neuralink call?). I find it more exciting to think he had something else on his mind entirely! Maybe that SpaceX - Tesla JV for the VTOL plane is getting further along than we thought?

If I had a question at results day, I'd ask the anticipated timeline to complete Master Plan 2 and for some tasters for Part 3. This Saturday by the way is the 3-year anniversary of Master Plan Part Deux:

"So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

1. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
2. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
3. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
4. Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it"

1) Has been oft promised, surely this will roll out in 2020?
2) This is the one we know least about. Missing from the announced pipeline are buses, the Toyota Corrola killer, compact European city car, transit / delivery van. Most of this feels like it could be launched by 2022 and scaled by 2024.
3) & 4) Not much more to say on the likelihood of Musk's timescale but he sees "feature complete" FSD by end of 2019 and a car without a steering wheel in 2021-2.

 

[powertoold]

It's actually been discussed ad infinitum on TMC, so I don't want to rehash it. Also, I don't want to link to Electrek and other "hit pieces". Just google it. I think he sold about $60M worth so far (with about $3-4M in May alone), which is substantial for him. At today's price, he has about $75M worth left.

Lol, no. Like I said, he sells a small portion of his shares at regular intervals over the last 1+ year(s) or so. The Electrek article has already been debunked, essentially by JB being on stage at the shm.

Let me guess, you believe the toilet paper thing also.

 

[Thekiwi]

Of all the puzzling quotes we sometimes get from Musk, this one from the same interview has got me thinking:

"We've got a really exciting product lineup, just when we're talking about Tesla specifically, and we can talk more about the future but we've got the Tesla Semi, the new Roadster, later this year hopefully we'll be unveiling the Tesla pickup truck, and Model Y will be going into production".

The interview was done at SpaceX and perhaps he'd just come from a Starlink meeting (or Neuralink call?). I find it more exciting to think he had something else on his mind entirely! Maybe that SpaceX - Tesla JV for the VTOL plane is getting further along than we thought?

If I had a question at results day, I'd ask the anticipated timeline to complete Master Plan 2 and for some tasters for Part 3. This Saturday by the way is the 3-year anniversary of Master Plan Part Deux:

"So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

1. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
2. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
3. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
4. Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it"

1) Has been oft promised, surely this will roll out in 2020?
2) This is the one we know least about. Missing from the announced pipeline are buses, the Toyota Corrola killer, compact European city car, transit / delivery van. Most of this feels like it could be launched by 2022 and scaled by 2024.
3) & 4) Not much more to say on the likelihood of Musk's timescale but he sees "feature complete" FSD by end of 2019 and a car without a steering wheel in 2021-2.

Mentioning anything about a cheaper Tesla at this point would be bad for model 3 demand. Wait at least until Model Y is shipping before announcing a lower cost compact Tesla..

 

[JusRelax]

It's actually been discussed ad infinitum on TMC, so I don't want to rehash it. Also, I don't want to link to Electrek and other "hit pieces". Just google it. I think he sold about $60M worth so far (with about $3-4M in May alone), which is substantial for him. At today's price, he has about $75M worth left.

Please read post #60384 of this thread.

Edit: added easy-link to the post.

 

[Thekiwi]

It's actually been discussed ad infinitum on TMC, so I don't want to rehash it. Also, I don't want to link to Electrek and other "hit pieces". Just google it. I think he sold about $60M worth so far (with about $3-4M in May alone), which is substantial for him. At today's price, he has about $75M worth left.

Sounds like sensible diversification to me. An “Act of God” event could hit Tesla and going from having $100 million+ To essentially nothing would be horrible for anyone.

 

[powertoold]

It's funny because JB has been selling stock for the last year-and-a-half, even when the stock was high. And the hit piece only came out when the stock was in the 180s. Typical FUD.

If you've been following the discussion on TMC about this, you wouldn't have fallen for it.

Also, it's very possible that JB is planning to reduce his involvement in Tesla. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have faith in Tesla's success. He definitely has enough money to retire, so there's nothing wrong with him selling shares on a routine interval, and then gracefully exit.

 

[EVNow]

I used public information to arrive at my conclusion, but haven't seen anyone else figure it out. I'm almost positive that Tesla has, and if so, EM has good reason for not revealing it. So I won't either, because it's detrimental to Tesla.

May be you can list the public information most critical to your conclusion - may be we are all missing something ?

EM had a whole investor day to talk about it - what makes you think he doesn't want to reveal "it" ?

Anyway, after all the analysis - this is my conclusion about FSD Feature Complete. First, this is the explanation for FSD on the website. Note, there is no mention of "robotaxi" here.

Full Self-Driving Capability : Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you. (emphasis added).​

For Tesla - Feature Complete - doesn't really mean all the needed features as I've listed in the FC thread would be complete. It seems to me they are going to do the most basic City NOA - and along with freeway NOA they already have, it completes FSD. It is more like MVP than FSD. Ofcourse they will have a myriad "edge" cases to solve, including things like construction zones, emergency vehicles, school bus etc, and that is the "march of 9s". So, what will FC involve ?

Also, as a more practical matter, as remaining time declines and time pressure mounts - they will have to start looking to implement an "MVP" - minimum viable product. For city driving these basic things would work - incidentally all items Musk has talked or tweeted about at some point.
- summon
- navigate urban streets (even without lane markings)
- manage complex intersections with traffic lights
- stop signs
- roundabouts
- auto park
​

I think it is likely they will complete this by end of the year. Next year they start on various edge cases. How long that takes is anyone's guess. Afterall Musk says, they have to show "FSD" is safe by letting drivers use "FSD" for billions of miles before regulators would allow driverless cars.