Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

What’s with the minor price spike?

 

[Sparky4life]

I do notice that a certain percentage of older folks seem immune to this "fossilization" of the brain and their minds remain open with little apparent bias against age, sex and race and this quality extends into being able to easily accept newly adopted technologies like EV's without assuming it must be inferior to fossil fuels.

Thank you. Just because I'm old doesn't mean I'm dumb.

 

[Sancho]

SP breaking through the capping. Now it gets interesting.

 

[EVNow]

Last 5 minutes - higher volume and SP going up. Any news ?

 

[SO16]

Indeed, people won't start heading off to work at 11 am and return home around 9 pm just so they can get more value from their autonomous Model 3.

Perhaps people “could” still have Robotaxi run from their house after hours too.

i can't tell you how many 20-somethings tell me their next car is going to be a Tesla. Anyone over 35 is a MUCH MUCH harder sell.

Are you kidding me? A Tesla is a great “mid-life crises” vehicle. Bought mine when I was 40. The people who have been really interested in my vehicle are all over 40. Sadly the Michigan anti Service Center laws do hurt sales. (Even though I have only used mobile service to date.)

 

[Fact Checking]

As things stand (25 responses), only 16% find it "exceptionally difficult" to communicate,

Without going into the statistical validity of this sample, I find your response astounding: only 16% find it "exceptionally difficult to communicate" with Tesla service???

Even 5% would be enough of a critical mass to permanently tarnish the image of a service based company. It's not that hard to pick up the phone or answer emails reliably and get back to people who spent $50,000+ of their money on Tesla products and on whom Tesla relies to spend more in the future.

Put differently: a 84% reliability score of the "bare minimum expected levels of customer service" doesn't even have a single nine in it ...

Fortunately Tesla is product based, not service based, for now. But as the Tesla fleet is aging service will be a more and more important part, especially due to the exclusive, single supplier nature of many Tesla repairs that makes owners dependent on Tesla.

But as @neroden said, the clock is ticking.

 

[replicant]

Any particular strategies heading into earnings, selling covered calls, deleveraging, buying puts?

Still the the same since 2012: holding still.

 

[EVNow]

SP breaking through the capping. Now it gets interesting.

Its almost like someone wants to push the SP higher. Accumulators and big FI don't do that.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Anyone concerned about a pull-forward effect in Q3 due to reduction in tax credit from Q2? It's not as much as between Q4 '18 to Q1 '19, but it's still almost $2k reduction in incentives. The recent price reduction and elimination of standard-range S/X seems eerily reminiscent of what they did in Q1 '19, so am worried we're going to see something similar for deliveries this quarter.

I don’t think the elimination of the SR means the same thing here. In Q1, it was eliminated because of the botched switchover to Raven. I don’t see that happening again so soon.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Any particular strategies heading into earnings, selling covered calls, deleveraging, buying puts?

Depends on your expected outcome. High volatility swing in either direction - straddle. Low volatility swing in either direction - iron condor. Dive? Sell calls / buy puts. Rocket up? Sell puts / buy calls. There are so many other strategies, too. Diagonals, verticals, strangles, calendar spreads...

Personally, I’m not going to be selling many covered calls for this one, but I will be deploying a strategy that would benefit from a high volatility move in either direction.

I bought back some sold 7/19 250Cs today at a 50% loss, by the way. This week’s price action was stronger than I expected.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Its almost like someone wants to push the SP higher. Accumulators and big FI don't do that.

FOMO? MOMO?

 

[StealthP3D]

Its almost like someone wants to push the SP higher. Accumulators and big FI don't do that.

I disagree with that, it looks like normal intra-day volatility. The intraday chart pattern was looking very bullish and it just broke out. There has been a lot of buying pressure lately. That doesn't mean it will necessarily continue but traders and those looking for a good entry for more shares cause that kind of volatility just from buying pressure.

 

[KarenRei]

Without going into the statistical validity of this sample, I find your response astounding: only 16% find it "exceptionally difficult to communicate"???

This is only about the Say question. Nothing more.

Many Tesla owners are finding it exceptionally difficult to communicate with Tesla service. Many wait 5 hours on hold or are caught in phone tree loops. Several service centers can only be scheduled by phone, which is nigh impossible. What is being done about Tesla service hell?

Reality:

Fewer than one in six Tesla owners are finding it exceptionally difficult to communicate with Tesla service. Almost no calls involve waiting 5 hours on hold or caught in phone tree loops. Several service centers can only be scheduled by phone, which fewer than 1 in 8 people consider nigh impossible. What is being done about Tesla service hell (something that only 8% of Tesla owners have ever experienced)?

Doesn't exactly have the same zing, now does it?

Again, it's not good. But hyperbolic FUD that exaggerates the situation is never warranted - anywhere, let alone in the highly public, highly reported on environment of an earnings call.

Earnings calls are not complaint boxes. They're a place to ask professional questions. Want metrics to hold Tesla to account for service and communications improvement? Just ask for metrics to hold Tesla to account for service and communications improvement. It's not hard. You don't have to berate them and exaggerate to get it.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Without going into the statistical validity of this sample, I find your response astounding: only 16% find it "exceptionally difficult to communicate"???

Even 5% would be enough of a critical mass to permanently tarnish the image of a service based company. It's not that hard to pick up the phone or answer emails reliably and get back to people who spent $50,000+ of their money on Tesla products and on whom Tesla relies to spend more in the future.

Fortunately Tesla is product based, not service based, for now. But as the Tesla fleet is aging service will be a more and more important part, especially due to the exclusive, single supplier nature of many Tesla repairs that makes owners dependent on Tesla.

But as @neroden said, the clock is ticking.

I don’t know the history for where this survey came from, but 5 hours is an awfully high threshold. I’ve waited 2 1/2 before giving up, but apparently that doesn’t count as “exceptionally difficult”?

Anyway, at this point, I don’t bother with phone calls(uniformly a waste of several hours) or emails(shouting into a hurricane). If I have an issue, I just make a service appointment. In their fervor to get rid of those, they absolutely will contact you back in a timely manner.

 

[elasalle]

Depends on your expected outcome. High volatility swing in either direction - straddle. Low volatility swing in either direction - iron condor. Dive? Sell calls / buy puts. Rocket up? Sell puts / buy calls. There are so many other strategies, too. Diagonals, verticals, strangles, calendar spreads...

Personally, I’m not going to be selling many covered calls for this one, but I will be deploying a strategy that would benefit from a high volatility move in either direction.

I bought back some sold 7/19 250Cs today at a 50% loss, by the way. This week’s price action was stronger than I expected.

I'm expecting SP bump (biased as Long), but considering selling some call options as a small buffer (but not before Monday afternoon) ...cheers

 

[Fact Checking]

Just checking - has robinhood itself been going through a big spike of users recently?

Good question - I investigated this and I think the answer is "no".

There's some coarse Robinhood users numbers offered by Robinhood - it's probably above 4 million today, but both growth and actual active user base numbers are unclear.

But I think I found a good proxy to measue Robinhood growth: the Robintrack popularity of a large but "stable", low volatility, not particularly exciting company, such as General Electric:

Robinhood users holding GE grew from 213k at the beginning of 2019, to 273k today, which suggests recent 7-month user-base growth of about +28%.

TSLA holders expanded much faster: from 81k in early 2019, to 163k today - growth of +101%.

I.e. much of the growth in Robinhood users to hold TSLA can be attributed to the Tesla stock, not to the growth of the Robinhood platform itself.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This is only about the Say question. Nothing more.



Reality:



Doesn't exactly have the same zing, now does it?

Again, it's not GOOD. But hyperbolic FUD that exaggerates the situation is never warranted - anywhere, let alone in the highly public, highly reported on environment of an earnings call.

Earnings calls are not complaint boxes. They're a place to ask professional questions. Want metrics to hold Tesla to account for service and communications improvement? Just ask for metrics to hold Tesla to account for service and communications improvement. It's not hard. You don't have to berate them and exaggerate to get it.

Interestingly, Tesla seems to have recently changed their service appointment system. I just went through it yesterday and it seems to actually, really be impossible to schedule a service center visit by calling them now. Attempt to do so and you get an automated message saying to schedule via the Tesla app. Of course, if you go to the Tesla app, it automatically only gives mobile service options. If you want a service center appointment, that seems to only be possible now via your account on the website(which, bizarrely, doesn’t have an option for mobile service ). I assume that at some point, that final loophole will be closed and there’ll just be no way to schedule for a service center.

EDIT: By the way, if anyone is wondering, I specifically need a service center because Mobile Service already tried and failed to fix my autopilot issue. After a few attempts to get an update, the mobile tech finally suggested I get a proper service center appointment(I don’t really blame him for that. He has to go around fixing people’s cars, it doesn’t make sense for him to endlessly follow up on larger issues).

 

[Sparky4life]

Interestingly, Tesla seems to have recently changed their service appointment system. I just went through it yesterday and it seems to actually, really be impossible to schedule a service center visit by calling them now. Attempt to do so and you get an automated message saying to schedule via the Tesla app. Of course, if you go to the Tesla app, it automatically only gives mobile service options. If you want a service center appointment, that seems to only be possible now via your account on the website(which, bizarrely, doesn’t have an option for mobile service ). I assume that at some point, that final loophole will be closed and there’ll just be no way to schedule for a service center.

It must be region dependent. When I schedule an appointment though the app, I only see service centers. In the past when I have scheduled an appointment at a SC though the app, I have had them call me later asking if Mobile service is ok, but I have not seen it as an option on the app.

 

[Freder Reeve]

only 16% find it "exceptionally difficult" to communicate, and only 8% have experienced "service hell".

I've noticed a pattern of people who choose to complain constantly during the last couple weeks of each quarter, when tesla is clearly focusing on deliveries. Really getting tired of seeing these posts by the same people over and over at the end of each quarter, especially when they fill entire pages.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Very strong price action. Nasdaq going lower again but Tesla reaching new highs.