Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Yuri_G]

CBS Sunday Morning just ran a segment on Space X and Elon that was %100 positive.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on the next giant leap for mankind

 

[Crowded Mind]

Jesse seems like a really interesting guy. Here is a podcast he did a few weeks ago which goes way out into the weeds on accounting practices and growth measurement. It was more interesting than one might expect.

Jesse Livermore – The Search for the Truth with the Anonymous Master – [Invest Like the Best, EP.136]

Apparently he works for O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and uses the same pseudonym everywhere.

TMC jesse is jesselivenomore. The person in this interview is a different person using a similar pseudonym. Both are in reference to this person: Jesse Lauriston Livermore - Wikipedia

 

[wipster]

OT

I've been thinking recently about how a team driving across the United States with just the car doing the actual driving might charge at superchargers without getting out of the car. Would it not be possible to put the charging port behind a flip-down license plate and then design a supercharger with a flip-down nozzle (if that's the correct word) in the center section of the SC then use the rear view camera for backing up and pluging itself in? Obviously this would take a slight redesign of the SC, but they do have a lot of area in the middle where they could put a type of flip down nozzle. I was thinking along the lines of the fueling method used on military aircraft.

Anyway, I hope this makes sense cuz I just got up and my coffee hasn't kicked in yet...

 

[EVNow]

Some shipping info.

2 Ships have left SFO - one to EU and another to China. EU ship spent 3 working days at the port and the CN ship 2 working days. That is an improvement over last month when China ships spent only 1 day. So, we'll probably see fewer China ships this quarter, if this holds up.

 

[Dreadnought]

Just a proposal... Still, would be huge if it passes:
Trade disputes: Altmaier: The EU could lower tariffs for US cars to zero | tellerreport.com

 

[kengchang]

What would happen to Tilburg though if S/X doesn't get hit with tariff anymore?

Just a proposal... Still, would be huge if it passes:
Trade disputes: Altmaier: The EU could lower tariffs for US cars to zero | tellerreport.com

 

[StealthP3D]

CBS Sunday Morning just ran a segment on Space X and Elon that was %100 positive.

You mean they glossed over the fact that he is a conniving con artist and fraudster who uses video-editing software to fake landing boosters on drone ships to boost his ego?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don’t think it’s really worth the effort now. Tesla only has 4 or 5 more quarters to get through before the Y is in volume production, after which point quarterly unit volume and ASP will be generating consistent and large GAAP profits. After that the European GF, pickup, Semi & solar roof will ensure steady growth for another half decade (at which point Tesla has crossed the million vehicles shipped annually mark and can consider more vehicle variants).

My point being Is that within short order all but the stupidest Short traders and most gullible journalists will have realised Tesla is sitting in a very healthy financial position, and the sea of FUD will dry up fast to essentially nothing. Instead the debate will become about exactly how big the profits will be.

I’ve only been investing in stocks for about 20 years, but over that time I’ve seen the same pattern of extreme FUD and eventual dissipation hit several successful high growth companies in a similar fashion as to what Tesla is experiencing. Amazon, Apple & Facebook all essentially went through similar fazes: lots of bearish doom predictions based on similar FUD:

- “the company is structurally unprofitable”
- “the competition is coming and will eventually kill it”
- “the customers are all idiots caught up in marketing hype”
- “The CEO/founder is a fraud”

Eventually of course all the FUD is revealed as stupidity, and the companies mature into massively profitable enterprises. (the FUD for Tesla is slightly louder as social media is more prominent today, and Musk is way more famous)

Have patience, all will be resolved, and sooner rather than later. There are other, better short opportunities of highly likely ACTUAL structurally unprofitable companies that have been listed over the last year or two that will no doubt soon become the new targets of shorts. (I’m not a short seller, but if I was I imagine I would be all over a certain ride haIling company and a certain music streaming company.)

Love the optimism, and my investing aligns with this view, but I wish I could believe this is just another one of those short stories where the FUD fizzles after profits take hold. Unlike all the other examples of big change (Blackberry, Brick and Mortar retail, Horses etc...) this one's enemy is big oil. Is there any precedence for such a powerful nemesis in past history?

To me, the FUD fizzles when the rest of the industry can do similar or better than a 2012 Model S (then keeps up) because then you at least have other companies in the race and swimming the same direction. Oil will still resist.

Do I think Ford's eF150 will threaten Tesla, no. Is NIO the real competition in China, no. There really isn't any threat to Tesla in the BEV space for many reasons (supercharging, software updates, costs, GFs, distribution...). Throw in fake news and big oil will insist on keeping people in the past, in their own little bubble like the Amish. So what would make the oil money back off? I do not see the Middle East nations making huge profits on solar or cars like they do on oil. I see decades before this situation really changes. Horse to car migration took how long, and the money was behind the cars at that time.

Perhaps the children will speak up. This little girl inspires me. Very well spoken kid for 16! I saw her Ted Talk, wow. Simple rhetorical questions, one after another firing away. Greta Thunberg: ‘They see us as a threat because we’re having an impact’

 

[SOULPEDL]

When EM gave speech at GF opening in Shanghai, he did say one day one of you from China might be CEO of Tesla ...

I think he was sharing his willingness to be 100% fair with the Chinese, at all levels. He and I see China as an ally. Win/win written all over it. Any other posturing that puts China as second to US would be foolish.

So bring it on China. Let's your Tony Stark.

 

[hobbes]

What would happen to Tilburg though if S/X doesn't get hit with tariff anymore?

Parts distribution (does that already AFAIK and could use more of the facilites for that).

 

[RobStark]

What would happen to Tilburg though if S/X doesn't get hit with tariff anymore?

Semi/Lorry factory for Europe.

The form factor has to be different to meet European regulations so it just makes sense to make it in Europe.

 

[Fred42]

If the U.S. continues to treat Tesla like crap with Wall Street stock manipulation, repressive state dealership laws, deceptive press, etc. I could totally see Musk pulling up stakes and moving to whatever location is most conducive to the mission.

China is not a democracy. New leadership, new objectives and Tesla could be in big trouble. If Trump could do whatever he wanted, Tesla would be gone. The American system doesn't allow that. The Chinese system does.

 

[schonelucht]

My wifes relatives own a busy Volvo dealership. The used car buyer for the dealership (who is no fan of EV's if you know what I mean) told me at Christmas that that the vehicles Tesla sells at auction have developed a reputation as being the ones you want to buy. Very well maintained and cared for. These are the cars Tesla takes as trade-ins, probably mostly on Model 3 sales. I can see how buyers of Teslas might be trading in better than average examples since buying a Tesla is all the excuse you need to upgrade. In contrast, those buying another gas car might be doing it because there is something wrong with their current car. I would assume the revenue Tesla gets from used car auctions might have risen with the reputation they've developed as having the best used cars in the industry.

Note that trade-ins in lieu of cash payments are accounted as automative revenue. The used cars in service&other are Tesla cars, for example those that Tesla took in at the end of a lease.

 

[Fred42]

Love the optimism, and my investing aligns with this view, but I wish I could believe this is just another one of those short stories where the FUD fizzles after profits take hold. Unlike all the other examples of big change (Blackberry, Brick and Mortar retail, Horses etc...) this one's enemy is big oil. Is there any precedence for such a powerful nemesis in past history?

To me, the FUD fizzles when the rest of the industry can do similar or better than a 2012 Model S (then keeps up) because then you at least have other companies in the race and swimming the same direction. Oil will still resist.

Do I think Ford's eF150 will threaten Tesla, no. Is NIO the real competition in China, no. There really isn't any threat to Tesla in the BEV space for many reasons (supercharging, software updates, costs, GFs, distribution...). Throw in fake news and big oil will insist on keeping people in the past, in their own little bubble like the Amish. So what would make the oil money back off? I do not see the Middle East nations making huge profits on solar or cars like they do on oil. I see decades before this situation really changes. Horse to car migration took how long, and the money was behind the cars at that time.

Perhaps the children will speak up. This little girl inspires me. Very well spoken kid for 16! I saw her Ted Talk, wow. Simple rhetorical questions, one after another firing away. Greta Thunberg: ‘They see us as a threat because we’re having an impact’

It will be worth the while of big oil, OEM's and car dealer reps to fund FUD for years to slow the transition. If Tesla generates enough cash to fund expansion or even show enough profit that they can borrow on favorable terms, FUD can still slow the transition by targeting consumers.

 

[SOULPEDL]

China is not a democracy. New leadership, new objectives and Tesla could be in big trouble. If Trump could do whatever he wanted, Tesla would be gone. The American system doesn't allow that. The Chinese system does.

Exactly why this rhetoric of a Chinese CEO etc is a form of leverage against the US dark forces.

It will be worth the while of big oil, OEM's and car dealer reps to fund FUD for years to slow the transition. If Tesla generates enough cash to fund expansion or even show enough profit that they can borrow on favorable terms, FUD can still slow the transition by targeting consumers.

Agreed.
The monkey wrench in their strategy could be FSD. I also predict that we'll have FSD technology for years before congress gives in to laws that make the Tesla Network legal. Imagine the counter lobbying on that change! And we thought we had a lot of FUD today...

 

[Stephen zz]

Exactly why this rhetoric of a Chinese CEO etc is a form of leverage against the US dark forces.


Agreed.
The monkey wrench in their strategy could be FSD. I also predict that we'll have FSD technology for years before congress gives in to laws that make the Tesla Network legal. Imagine the counter lobbying on that change! And we thought we had a lot of FUD today...

This doesn't have to be a problem. Once FSD has been proven to be effective, as countries/states approve it there will be more market in those countries/states than Tesla can produce. This will create pressure for further countries to open up.

Or FSD may have geofenced approval. Again this will generate more demand than Tesla can supply.

By this stage ICE will be well and truly Osborned

 

[Causalien]

China is not a democracy. New leadership, new objectives and Tesla could be in big trouble. If Trump could do whatever he wanted, Tesla would be gone. The American system doesn't allow that. The Chinese system does.

Yes, but to argue the other side of the coin. The Chinese emperor is dead set on electrifying the whole country to reduce pollution. So it gets the opposite effect. If the opportunity is a life line for TESLA and allows it to become one of the top automakers for the duration of Xi's life. I say go for it. Use the immense capital TESLA accumulates after 50 years to mitigate the problem of a dictator opposing EV.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It will be worth the while of big oil, OEM's and car dealer reps to fund FUD for years to slow the transition. If Tesla generates enough cash to fund expansion or even show enough profit that they can borrow on favorable terms, FUD can still slow the transition by targeting consumers.

Eh.....I don't think the FUD has had any effects on Tesla's demand. Sure some people have easily bought into it and/or just are anti climate chance, etc...but that hasn't actually had any effect on Tesla's sales. Literally the only quarter where you could even remotely say that the FUD had any effect was Q1 but even then, it was Tesla's own production issues(both 3 and updating the S/X with Raven) and delivery logistics that caused the Q1 results.

Going forward, I think the FUD effect is going to be practically non-existent. The FUD will still exist for sure....but with Tesla delivering 100k+ vehicles every quarter for Q3 and Q4 and then upwards of 150k/quarter in 2020, it's practically game, set, match. The cars are moving advertisements...….whether it's the speed, the electric novelty, the huge screen interface, the Apps(the racing game and fart apps are huge hits with consumers)

 

[EVNow]

Eh.....I don't think the FUD has had any effects on Tesla's demand.

I've had multiple people tell me they would have bought a Tesla but for bankruptcy fears they get to listen to daily on CNBC.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I've had multiple people tell me they would have bought a Tesla but for bankruptcy fears they get to listen to daily on CNBC.

I'm not saying the FUD hasn't had any affect on some people. I'm saying it's hasn't caused demand issues. I know tons of people in the Pacific Northwest that see right through the FUD and have bought Model 3's during Q2. I would say some areas are stronger affect by FUD than others. I just don't think its' caused any sales issues. I think the cars being in too high of price brackets(back in Q4 and into Q1) naturally limits the amount of consumers and Tesla has been addressing that issue through high production to get to lower prices.