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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
tschmidty
Member
I am familiar with it, and as I said, I believe it has a lot of potential. It is not a done deal, Maxwell was targeting 2023. Probably sooner if Tesla can make it happen but there is a lot of testing still to be done before any type of volume can be reached, if it can. It is theoretical at this point that they can get the volume efficiencies they predicted, although they, Elon and even myself think they can do it, the question is when. You don't delay a product and throw away all your current manufacturing capacity because you may have something better down the road. Should Tesla toss out all their 18650 cell manufacturing since 21700 is better? Clearly they don't agree with you since they are still producing and using them.
They are for the car dealers. Just think of all the service revenue.
But better on what metric? 2170 is better for energy density, but 18650 is better for power delivery. (Which is part of why JB said they wouldn't switch the S&X to 2170 because it would reduce performance.)
Thumper
Active Member
A two speed transmission in an EV could be shifted without any clutch. The computer could pop the trans into neutral, perfectly match gear tooth speeds and engage the next gear. You can do this on old manual shift cars. Shifting for the roadster would only be for the very very high speeds anyway.
A bent or damaged single piece casting totals the car unless you rebuild it all on a new frame? Can't be bending and straightening this stuff, right?
Is that basically the way it is for present Teslas that any single piece frame section need to be replaced entirely if it gets damaged?
Who said anything about throwing anything away? If they deliver as announced, then everything is going according to the plan.
If MXWL is part of the plan and they need an extra 2mo to finish things up and make an announcement that delivers a fatal blow to an ICE(such as battery cost down 30%, range is up 30%) and this is reflected in the new Y, I don't see a big deal in the small delay.
If they are still a few years away, then they can do whatever, it doesn't matter. But are we hearing anything about Pana ramping capacity 2x for the 2020 EOY? It will take them time to do this, when should we hear something?
tschmidty
Member
Panasonic still needs to get their current line from 24GWh to 35GWh and the Y is already set to be built on the 3 battery pack/platform. If the Maxwell pixie dust batteries are ready and can be built in a 21700 form factor than they can easily change to using that for either a super long range or SR+ packs that equal LR. In any case all speculation.
But even so, it makes more sense for them to target the pixie dust batteries to the Pickup and Semi since they will be best served by the increased energy density. The LR Y and 3 already have "good enough" range (I think 300 miles is a nice psychological barrier) for most people so increased density/range would be more of a showcase than a demand driver.
pyromatter
Member
It may actually be just the opposite of that. Tesla already prohibits structural pulling / structural straightening, which is "any part that is welded, weld-bonded, rivet-bonded, or riveted to the vehicle", because it might weaken the joint. But if the whole frame is one part, this concern about weakening structural bonds goes away. Structural pulling is the "cheap and easy way" to repair damage, although manufacturers are increasingly recommending against it, particularly on unibody vehicles.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I think it depends on what the goal is. If you want to go from 0 to 255 mph I think it is very hard to do with a single gear, even playing games with dual transmissions: there is just so much more power required with increased speed (cubic, so it takes 8 times the power at 200 as it did at 100). But I'm not an EV power train designer and I don't pretend to be so I won't try to second guess what Tesla will do with the roadster 2.
But for normal vehicles? Absolutely right: a 5% larger battery not only gives you better range but allows faster charging and discharging.* For a sufficiently large battery pack the 5% added cost might be more than transmission (assuming you accepted the lower reliability), but for smaller battery packs its hard to see how it would work out.
The funny thing in all of this is other manufacturers would love to have Tesla's efficiency numbers. The Taycan (which uses a two-speed transmission) looks like it needed a lot more than a 5% gain as it still lags Tesla efficiency by a large margin.
* This is also why talk of using capacitors is silly -- for the same space and less money you can pack in more cells and derive universal benefit of better range, faster charging and discharging rather than a limited use "turbo charge." But as a gimmick I can see how that would work. "By pressing this button you initiate the Enhanced Electron Turbo Sequence(TM) which, after one hour, will launch you at orbital velocity." The "Space-X" package for the Roadster 2 seems to be in that vein, but is apparently not limited to just increasing launch acceleration. Dang it! There goes Tesla outdoing their competitors again, even in the gimmicks.
I couldn't find the exact reference but other people remember him saying the same thing. There is some discussion about it here: Model S range and interior update imminent?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I thought the release date was a proprietary Ford formula:
Release date = C + 1
(where C = current year)
Speed of transition matters. I think to get there faster Tesla needs to overdeliver. I.e. not just provide a bare minimum that some are comfortable with, but kill it with the numbers that nobody can argue with.
You want to save some money? Here's a 250mi battery for you. Less weight, more efficient.
You have range anxiety and need some assurances or help to dump your ICE? Here's a 400-500mi battery for you. Once you transition, the next EV you buy will be appropriate for your real needs.
2170 will definitely fit for MXWL, but I'm not so sure that if your battery has more capacity you don't also need thicker wires, more cooling, etc.
So, you may be able to swap non-MXWL cells with less MXWL cells and keep battery capacity the same, but if you want to make more range available to consumers, you might have to design for it ahead of time, not just assume that all you have to do is swap cells.
Truck will come after Y, so depending on when Maxcells are available, they could start using them early, I see no reason to wait for truck - they will save money on each Maxcell produced.
Of couse, any timelines are a speculation. Battery investor day should be interesting.
dc_h
Active Member
I wish Tesla had time to build an Escalade class vehicle in the next two years. Just build 5000 a year for $150 to 200k. I think Lathrop is going to just be a big parts distribution and inventory site, but something like it to build the Roadster and other small batch high margin cars seems needed. I'd like a series of high priced high margin showcase cars that attract interest in the brand, but don't require a lot of capital investment to build, but help burnish the design leadership of the brand as a whole. If they took time away from getting the big volume brands moving, it would not be worth it, but since battery capacity is a bigger hold up then auto production, having some niche products might be a good business idea.Remember this post: I have a strong suspicion that the Cadillac Escalade is not going to kill Tesla
I'm sure design time is better spent on cars that can sell 300 to 500k plus a year, but it might help retain design talent if they always have something new to work on. I'm also sure it would have some negative buzz with hard core environmentalists who don't like conspicuous consumption, but it would definitely impact a lot of opinion leaders who can create more interest in Tesla the brand.
While the model 3 & Y can get Tesla to 1 million cars annually, they are going to need a bigger line up to get into the top 10 manufacturers (around 2.5 million annual production). After the Y and pickup, what should be next?
New car pipeline (as I understand):
Model Y: Design complete, building production systems.Hopefully in production in first half of 2020.
Roadster: Design likely complete, waiting for production site announcement and stamping/press molds.
Pickup: Pen down and unveiling due in second half of this year. Could Rivian have pushed Elon to tweak the design?
Semi: Will the body be built in California? Could they use their Michigan stamping site to make body and assemble at the GF? No date for production stated yet and seems dependent on more cells from Sparks.
Roadster: Design likely complete, waiting for production site announcement and stamping/press molds.
Pickup: Pen down and unveiling due in second half of this year. Could Rivian have pushed Elon to tweak the design?
Semi: Will the body be built in California? Could they use their Michigan stamping site to make body and assemble at the GF? No date for production stated yet and seems dependent on more cells from Sparks.
After the Y & P cars (4 of which can sell 1mm a year):
Sprinter Commercial & Premium van: If built for UPS and commercial logistics these could sell as many as they can make.
Full size SUV: Limited edition Escalade class SUV.
Classic Jeep off road vehicle.
Classic minivan: Used by families and small scale businesses cause they are functional.
Compact car: when energy density is 30% higher, you can make a Corolla sized car with 250 miles under 30k.
Apologies a little OT for a business day. Looking forward to guidance tomorrow and more timing info on Shanghai & the Y.
Full size SUV: Limited edition Escalade class SUV.
Classic Jeep off road vehicle.
Classic minivan: Used by families and small scale businesses cause they are functional.
Compact car: when energy density is 30% higher, you can make a Corolla sized car with 250 miles under 30k.
Apologies a little OT for a business day. Looking forward to guidance tomorrow and more timing info on Shanghai & the Y.
One curiosity... I know pickup is after Model Y, but it seems we are thinking at least a few years away from production. However I remember in some podcast Musk saying Model Y / Pickup is the first time they will be working on developing 2 vehicles in parallel. Or maybe I am misremembering and it was Model Y / semi.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
You cannot do this under load though - such as when accelerating or simply maintaining speed at higher velocities - so the acceleration profile wouldn't be smooth. AFAIK you need some sort of clutch to have continuous power transfer, even with a 2-speed transmission.
Good old CNBC. I'm serious that I think they are playing with fire by alienating so many affluent, and passionate Tesla owners. Not a big deal when there weren't so many of us, but that number is growing steadily. At least they included the caveat.
Posting a gimmick video by ford and talking about how it means it will tow more than the Tesla Pick up.
Posting a gimmick video by ford and talking about how it means it will tow more than the Tesla Pick up.
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