Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I'm not willing to say as a fact that Tesla sandbagged Model Y timelines. But it's increasingly struck me as very much within the realm of possibility. They had every motive to do so, to avoid Osbourning 3 sales, to push fence-sitters off the fence, and to make "competitors" more complacent about what they had to produce by when in order to compete. Tesla also doesn't want to risk another production timing miss, and sandbagging helps there too.

I think Tesla has known and accepted all along that Model Y will cut deeply into what Model 3 sales would have been without the Model Y but that the overall sales will be so much higher and that the Model Y has more potential for higher margins so this is simply accepted. The Model Y will outsell the Model 3 by 2:1. If they are delaying the release it would only be due to battery constraints or to delay the investment and strengthen the company before undergoing the risk entailed with bringing a new model into production.

However, I think it's obvious by the very low-key unveiling of the Model Y that Tesla would like to surprise the market with the Model Y, not build anticipation and trumpet loudly before it's available. This points to an earlier, not later release. It could be the undercut left to the jaw of ICE manufacturers that is so hard and sudden, they'll barely know what hit them. Model 3 was a quick right-handed jab, Model Y will be the surprise left-handed follow-up that makes them hit the mat. It has the potential to do real carnage. Really, it's all dependent upon battery production capacity and capital considerations.

 

[M3Rider]

Sounds like collision etc. repairs will be easy

Hopefully, they don't have to replace half a car's body with a single cast part after a dent on a fender.

To sandbag, or not to sandbag. That is the question.
To predict the time as if everything goes right. Or to triple it, as Scotty would have done.

Lets just double it. That sounds about right!

You can ramp the bodies all you want. It all goes back to the question will they have the cells?

I would rather have them delay the Y, so the chances of MXWL cells with the double battery life, 30-50% extra capacity, and huge production process savings being a part of the Y are higher.

Rather than start the Y on old cells/batteries and then release an update 6 months later and then when you buy a used Y you have to keep track which cells it's got.

 

[Xenius]

As I sit here wondering how much better TSLA would be doing without the moron on the oval office, I also have to wonder which of the mod team enjoys his excellency so much to delete a fairly innocuous post for a synonym for poop.

Mod: it was me, but it's in the guidelines. Why do you think everyone writes *sugar*? Further discussion of this topic will be deleted. --ggr

 

[ggr]

Another new, interesting Tesla patent that was just granted:

US20190217380 MULTI-DIRECTIONAL UNIBODY CASTING MACHINE FOR A VEHICLE FRAME AND ASSOCIATED METHODS

Correction: published not granted. Patent applications filed internationally are automatically published 18 months after they are filed. This is also true of the wiring patent, although I don't recall anyone saying that it had been granted.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Sounds like collision etc. repairs will be easy

I thought in the self-driving future there will be no collisions.

 

[KarenRei]

... so much to delete a fairly innocuous post for a synonym for poop.

You were writing about the Audi, I take it?

 

[ggr]

OT safety of hydrogen fuel cell cars,



Fantastic description.

Another fun (but scary) fact about hydrogen gas: when permeating metallic containers H₂ molecules IIRC disassociate into individual hydrogen ions which can tunnel through crystalline structures: which is just a tiny, tiny proton+neutron nucleus which is about 10,000 times smaller than H₂ molecules which will already leak out of a regular rubber balloon wall in no time ...

Monatomic hydrogen has very few neutrons.
Mod: off topic. --ggr

 

[tschmidty]

Hopefully, they don't have to replace half a car's body with a single cast part after a dent on a fender.

You can ramp the bodies all you want. It all goes back to the question will they have the cells?

I would rather have them delay the Y, so the chances of MXWL cells with the double battery life, 30-50% extra capacity, and huge production process savings being a part of the Y are higher.

Rather than start the Y on old cells/batteries and then release an update 6 months later and then when you buy a used Y you have to keep track which cells it's got.

Again, these parts are effectively one piece, the only difference is the process of getting there. Repairs will be done exactly the same.

What is this maxwell tech that you guys think is going to be so revolutionary that we should postpone everything until the magical, maxwell pixie dust batteries appear? Right now they manufacture capacitors (which are not batteries) and have some patents on some things that might improve efficiency and lower rare metals needed. There is potential there but there is nothing that will make it into production volume anytime soon. It will be a race between Maxwell batteries and FSD to see which comes first

 

[elasalle]

All-Electric Car Range, Price & More Compared For U.S. – July 2019

 

[MP3Mike]

Again, these parts are effectively one piece, the only difference is the process of getting there. Repairs will be done exactly the same.

As long as Tesla makes the parts to replace damaged sections. (Which would be different than the entire cast frame/body.)

Or do you have to buy a whole cast frame/body and cut it up to get the part(s) you need?

 

[Thumper]

From what I remember , the crystal structure of aluminum castings is significantly less strong than forged or rolled material. This property must be designed around with larger cross sections, gussets etc. Have there been improvements in this area in the last few years? How do the mavens here see this issue for the giant injection molding machine?

 

[tschmidty]

As long as Tesla makes the parts to replace damaged sections. (Which would be different than the entire cast frame/body.)

Or do you have to buy a whole cast frame/body and cut it up to get the part(s) you need?

What do they do now? In any case getting off-topic to delve into details since no one knows if this is the machine or they will do this. It could significantly improve efficiencies or we could all be off track.

 

[M3Rider]

Again, these parts are effectively one piece, the only difference is the process of getting there. Repairs will be done exactly the same.

What is this maxwell tech that you guys think is going to be so revolutionary that we should postpone everything until the magical, maxwell pixie dust batteries appear? Right now they manufacture capacitors (which are not batteries) and have some patents on some things that might improve efficiency and lower rare metals needed. There is potential there but there is nothing that will make it into production volume anytime soon. It will be a race between Maxwell batteries and FSD to see which comes first

There's a lot of prior discussion on this and I'm not going to repeat it all, I already summarized in my post. See this slide and do more digging on your own if interested.

The partnership was in the making for a while as the last line in the slide shows, so potentially by EOY 2020 Tesla could be looking for 2-3 years into this.
Which is not a lot of time, but hey, Tesla started its work on Autopilot in mid 2016, so there's a slight chance for a surprise.

 

[elasalle]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-liquidity-may-be-set-to-improve-analyst-says-51563894086
JMP Securities’ Joseph Osha said that after a damaging first quarter that combined sagging business performance and the repayment of a convertible debt issue, Tesla’s financial position should improve. Osha has an Outperform rating on the stock and a $347 price target, 27% above FactSet’s $273 average.

 

[KarenRei]

As long as Tesla makes the parts to replace damaged sections. (Which would be different than the entire cast frame/body.)

Or do you have to buy a whole cast frame/body and cut it up to get the part(s) you need?

You can't weld UHSS steel either way.

From what I remember , the crystal structure of aluminum castings is significantly less strong than forged or rolled material. This property must be designed around with larger cross sections, gussets etc. Have there been improvements in this area in the last few years?

You use alloys specifically designed for high-strength castings. There's a US company that's been pushing the edge in high-strength casting alloys that Tesla could consult, I'm trying to remember the name here... SpaceX, I think? Yeah, that's the one. I think Tesla might have an "in" with them

BTW, one fun thing you can do with castings that you can't do with stampings is metal foams. I don't know if it would be economical, but they're pretty awesome materials. The ultimate metal structural form in terms of strength to weight ratio would be a foamed interior with a rigid exterior (similar to bone) - e.g. such as integral-type Aluminum Foam Sandwich (AFS) in the case of alumium, where the outside is cooled before it can foam.

 

[LN1_Casey]

You were writing about the Audi, I take it?

We should just the Audi Etron as a synonym for the banned word. I mean, it is after all.

In stock related news; the current day's trend is much better than yesterdays, but the volume is significantly lower. I think it was 3mil by this point yesterday, and it's only 1.9-ish last I looked. A tiny MMD, but I think most people are now more into a holding pattern for the results tomorrow. Probably the rise is due to the retail investors like myself picking up our handful of stocks vice someone much larger.

 

[kengchang]

Notification from IB

 

[humbaba]

EV Transmissions Are Coming, And It's A Good Thing | CleanTechnica

from the fine article:

Many owners of converted cars simply leave the car in 2nd gear most of the time.

...and I'm supposed to be persuaded that multi-gear EV transmissions are necessary? Sure, they then cite a 5% range improvement -- but while I would take any range I could get that was not accounting for Tesla's dual motor arrangement. That is, would a multi-gear transmission provide a 5% range improvement over Tesla's dual ratio?

The author also hand waves away the issue of reliability and durability of such a transmission. After first acknowledging that it would be a problem he says, "if you wanted to build a custom automatic EV, a torque converter could just as easily soften the blow a bit (though, you’d want it to have a TCC system to lock that converter up between shifts)" which reads exactly like someone who isn't skilled in the design of transmissions. Everything is easy when its someone else's problem to develop it.

I'm not saying it cannot be done (Porsche is doing it with the Taycan), but the author takes it as gospel that Tesla got it wrong and that multi-gear transmissions are required. I mean, Tesla's continued use of single gear transmissions is obviously just another example of Musk's hubris amirite?

What it does sound like is if you are willing to make the trade off of slight performance and efficiency gains at the expense of price, reliability and durability -- well, that's a match made in heaven for an ICE manufacturer. Their customers are already accustomed to the fact that a transmission will need regular service, even complete replacement, during the expected lifetime of the vehicle. This provides support for their dealer network. Its just a win-win-win. For them.

But if you want to make a car that has high reliability? Single motor works well enough and most of the gains from a multi-gear transmission can be realized through intelligent use of dual motor/transmissions without giving any of that up. Musk is, rightly IMO, proud of Tesla's million-mile transmission.

Finally, the author concludes that single-gear vehicles (like my M3 mid range) are only suitable for city driving and have no place on road trips. Hah! I admit that I don't drive as much as the average driver -- so far I'm averaging ~900 miles per month -- but the only reason that it is that high is from road trips. This last weekend I put another ~300 miles on it and over the next two weeks will add ~2500 miles or so.

My conclusion? The author has a thing for transmissions and wants them in EVs. He preemptively assumes he will be attacked for his nonsense so I think at some level he knows it is nonsense. Tesla will continue with single gear transmissions, with the possible exception of the roadster 2 (I've long wondered how it would support its speed range without a multi-gear transmission). New vehicles from legacy manufacturers will likely use multi-gear because it is what they are accustomed to and because it increases maintenance costs.

 

[Nocturnal]

from the fine article:

...and I'm supposed to be persuaded that multi-gear EV transmissions are necessary? Sure, they then cite a 5% range improvement -- but while I would take any range I could get that was not accounting for Tesla's dual motor arrangement. That is, would a multi-gear transmission provide a 5% range improvement over Tesla's dual ratio?

Seems like that extra cost/complexity/weight would be better suited by just adding more cells.

 

[M3Rider]

Tesla started its work on Autopilot in mid 2016, so there's a slight chance for a surprise

Btw, my mind was blown even more by the amount of progress Neuralink had in just a 2 years. This is just unthinkable when you look at the industry progress up to this point.

Not sure how much time Elon spent there, but the speed of some of the changes he initiates is surely impressive.