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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Recently added some shares avg about 195, trimmed half of them avg about 240.

Since I have loads of paper loss, thinking of realizing some of the loss tomorrow, and probably buy back a month later, since there still time before q3 delivery.

After Q1 I was sweating bullets due to the 'demand' talk, with no real clarity into the disappointing delivery.
Now I am relaxed. The profit margin, cash flow seems ok to me. Turned out demand problem was imaginary. The problems are production and service, although very important, but easier to deal with.

I think shorts will be able to push SP down further. I will buying 31 days later.
Short term seems like some hard times ahead...

Q3 don't expect profit, right? Q4 is good, so some SP bump is here, but that's 2 quarters of FUD. Ouch, that hurts.

Then Q1 20 is very tough. Prob. seasonal issues? plus low volume China production screwing margins? Plus capex for both China and Y?
So, again big SP drop here? Then pretty tough Q2, prob more capex and tuning, SP depressed?

Depending on how and who is looking at this, even after Q4 19 with good results, if this is served with "expect a big Q1 loss" during ER, then may not be much optimism for SP to rise.

Seems like a whole challenging year ahead.
Will be glad to be wrong.

Q1 they were pushing for bankruptcy in 10 months. We have to remember what really pushed the stock down. Elon's leaked email plus the negative FCF gave shorts the narrative of bankruptcy on the table. I remember people were talking about the amount of cash Tesla will end have having to be considered insolvent.

This ER completely destroyed the bankruptcy in 10 months narrative. Even you are relaxed about the company, so why are you selling? You'll be surprised and see how SP will go exactly opposite of your expectations because shorts really ran out of ammo. I said it before and I'm going to say it again, time is short's worst enemy. Today's report bought Tesla a massive amount of time for future product rollouts and FSD to become mature. We all know that Tesla needs to die a quick death, or survive long enough to disrupt. The shorts were really hoping that Tesla bleeds massive amount of money until they run out of investors. This positive cash flow thing from this point forward except quarters right before product roll out is devastating news for them.
 
Perhaps @Fact Checking should be renamed to @Cup Half Full.

Ha, ha... I'm just joking. I love Fact Checking. He is obviously an extremely intelligent* and ardent bull, and will squash any bear FUD and BS with force and speed -- I really wish he would enter the lion's den on twitter, FB, or Seeking Alpha (where I frequently post) and kick some serious bear ass.

But sometimes his eternal optimism can really be blinding. Can I ask, Fact Checking, are there any claims or positions of Tesla or Musk that you disagree with or doubt? Anyway, this is only a minor criticism. Please keep doing what you're doing.

*I suspect he scores nearly perfect on his SATs and GREs, or whatever the European equivalent is. I actually have a close friend just like this (he literally scored a perfect on his GREs: a 1600, and he was drinking the night before). My friend is incredibly brilliant and can argue circles around me on a number of topics, but history has shown him to be wrong on several points. We see eye to eye on most issues, but incidentally, this friend of mine has a very bearish view on Tesla (as well as crypto currencies, which I'm neutral on). I would love to see him and Fact Checking in a live debate.
 
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Maybe I just don't understand finance, but if Tesla added a few hundred million of cash to their pile this quarter, it seems like they could have quarters like this indefinitely and continue to make the pile bigger and bigger. I don't understand what problem people are seeing to say this wasn't a good quarter financially. From what I understand, the loss is basically just accounting details (eg write-offs)
 
Maybe I just don't understand finance, but if Tesla added a few hundred million of cash to their pile this quarter, it seems like they could have quarters like this indefinitely and continue to make the pile bigger and bigger. I don't understand what problem people are seeing to say this wasn't a good quarter financially. From what I understand, the loss is basically just accounting details (eg write-offs)

Yeah that's why people here were all like "hey not bad.."....except for the JB news. But probably equality countered by roadmap to 2twh news.
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
Many may be surprised by this share price reaction, but it is about what I expected (I had sold weekly 275 calls and bought 250 puts), keeping my core position unchanged. The run up since the 180 bottom was too quick (and with many gaps). Unless the earnings was a significant beat (certainly possible), the shares were bound to pull back on an in-line or miss. Of course, I was hardly certain this would happen (otherwise I would have sold my core position). I got lucky today (As always, I consider trading around my core position to be based on less skill and more luck and so size it appropriately).

Regardless, I view the report and fundamentals as strong. The media headlines are once again colored. I will use the dip to add to my long term position in the coming weeks. GLTA!
 
And here's what's been going on with deliveries:

Delivery shennanigans & terrible customer service

More communications problems, but an attitude problem too.

The important part is in message #10:
Delivery shennanigans & terrible customer service

"And frankly the logistics of the added trip weren't insurmountable. but the cable-company level of customer service was really the tipping point."

I have to say knowing first hand and dealing with a major CS issue that the issues are far worse than they seem and the people making the decisions are worse than used car dealers. Tesla CS is an oxymoron and Tesla managers are the later half of that word.
 
Objectively speaking, wouldn't that be a long's equivalent to FUDshorts moving goalposts. In the very beginning of this year, Musk expected profit in Q1, then Q2, now Q4, and that's what many here believed.
Actually, Q1 was specifically called out as being a possible exception. He never said every quarter, he applied a caveat.

That said, Q1 was definitely worse than anticipated and Q2 was not anticipated by that statement. And now Q3 is being revised to neutral.

So, yes, there is some goalpost moving going on. But, no, it is not quite what you are saying.
 
How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?

This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.

2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.

I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.

2 TW, wow.

Elon's "private" secret master plan is being revealed bit by bit. Rather than simply help to accelerate the transition to EVs and sustainable power (the OEM's have been hopeless and are almost all lost causes) he intends to be first to market with large-scale FSD and ultra-low-cost TaaS. The disruption to all existing ICE transport and most OEMs will then be fast and brutal.

2 TW should be enough for Tesla to plonk stationary storage everywhere, and to supply both themselves and surviving OEMs with enough battery packs (and drive trains) to convert most passenger ICE miles to EV TaaS miles by 2030. Tony Seba (RethinkX) suggests that TaaS will deliver 95% of passenger miles in the US alone via 26 million EVs with FSD, assuming TaaS usage per vehicle is 10x more than individual owned vehicles.

The world climate crisis absolutely needs a shocking disruption on this scale, in 12-24 months it will be utterly obvious to everyone that it is happening, and it will trigger a bunch of other shock disruptions around the world such as described in The Green New Deal. Our survival as a species depends on this.
 
hearing him say S/X in the same breath are not that important in the long term is really shocking. Makes me think their days are numbered.

He was trying to get the point across that as the production of all cars continues to ramp in an exponential fashion, the S/X will become proportionally less and less significant (the market for cars in that price range is relatively small). He also said the 2019 Model S is vastly improved over the original 2013 Model S.

Don't worry, Tesla will not stop making the Models S&X, they are quite profitable, it's just that there is limited room for that profit to ramp vs. the more affordable Model 3 (and soon the Model Y).
 
I wouldn't say that..many people held massive amount of money with Tesla the past 5 years and made almost no return. Bulls have very little evidence that they are brilliant investors for choosing Tesla right now. Maybe call him a moron when the SP doubled what it is today.
I will