Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

We have evidence that Tesla will continue to grow, albeit slower than we would like to. But I also have faith in the shorts ability to give me cheaper shares later.

I don't see that we have evidence for "slower".
Y is on schedule per the prior plan.
2Twh shows they have plans for all their products to ramp, which likely are not tied to Panasonic that tries to diversify away from Tesla.
The speed of this 2Twh ramp is unknown and probably the cost is mind blowing too, much bigger than what GF1 costed them... But that shows they think big and long term. Def. not limiting themselves to Fremont times 3(for China and EU).
Also, can this be the evidence that competition is written off and is being nuked?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Haven't read or digested any of the call info, but keep hearing terawatt thrown around. Which is nice.

There is not a lot of money in making cars, especially if you make it 5x more efficient. Even if you crush everyone.

TSLA SP shoots into the stratosphere when people figure out the value of the energy side and the huge advantage Tesla has over everyone. It's not making skateboard drivetrains, it's making storage packs. And energy services, residential, microgrid and utility scale......good lord.

$1T valuation is coming, absolutely no idea when but it will all be based on Energy.

 

[EVNow]

The friend was bearish at probably 300+ which in hindsight is correct. Remember there were people who bought in at 370/share hoping that it'll hit 500 in 3-5 years..those bulls were wrong.

Hmmm … those 3/5 years haven't passed. Ofcourse, if they had waited, they would have got the shares much cheaper …. but, then, there were people who shorted at 180.

 

[StealthP3D]

If you want to find people having terrible customer service and long wait times for their Tesla troubles, there are a dime a dozen on youtube. TFL make weekly episode about how Tesla's service sucks and ridiculous. You also find it over reddit too, and 20% of the conference call was about service. So I don't know what kind of secret problem you stumbled upon that no one else knows about.

I would weigh in on Tesla service but I don't have any experience with them.

Neither of our two Model 3's has needed a damn thing! And that's the way I like it. That was not our experience with any of our previous new cars.

 

[Maar]

One piece of bad news is that Model S/X production is still single shift. No mention of increasing it further anytime soon.

I thought there was a battery production constraint which prevents them increasing beyond that even if they want to?

 

[kengchang]

I thought there was a battery production constraint which prevents them increasing beyond that even if they want to?

No, S/X battery comes from Japan which has enough supply to do 100K a year

 

[Antares Nebula]

If I can also get "like" and a "helpful" on the post below, I can get a "poker" flush. My goal at TMC is to write a comment that gets all six ratings (including "disagree") at an extremely high number for each, thereby sowing maximum confusion and discord.

Perhaps @Fact Checking should be renamed to @Cup Half Full.

Ha, ha... I'm just joking. I love Fact Checking. He is obviously an extremely intelligent* and ardent bull, and will squash any bear FUD and BS with force and speed -- I really wish he would enter the lion's den on twitter, FB, or Seeking Alpha (where I frequently post) and kick some serious bear ass.

But sometimes his eternal optimism can really be blinding. Can I ask, Fact Checking, are there any claims or positions of Tesla or Musk that you disagree with or doubt? Anyway, this is only a minor criticism. Please keep doing what you're doing.

*I suspect he scores nearly perfect on his SATs and GREs, or whatever the European equivalent is. I actually have a close friend just like this (he literally scored a perfect on his GREs: a 1600, and he was drinking the night before). My friend is incredibly brilliant and can argue circles around me on a number of topics, but history has shown him to be wrong on several points. We see eye to eye on most issues, but incidentally, this friend of mine has a very bearish view on Tesla (as well as crypto currencies, which I'm neutral on). I would love to see him and Fact Checking in a live debate.

 

[neroden]

If you want to find people having terrible customer service and long wait times for their Tesla troubles, there are a dime a dozen on youtube. TFL make weekly episode about how Tesla's service sucks and ridiculous. You also find it over reddit too, and 20% of the conference call was about service. So I don't know what kind of secret problem you stumbled upon that no one else knows about.

Oh, yeah, you'll see it on TFL and YouTube and Reddit.

You won't find it on Bloomberg and Business Insider and Marketwatch and CNBC and the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times and Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool and Seeking Clicks, that's my point.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Commentary on earnings from Adam Jonas:

Key negative:

Substantial miss on gross margin ex-reg credits 17.2% vs. Cons of 20.6% and MSe 20.0%.

Key positive:

Stronger than expected FCF number of $614mm vs. Cons of $143mm and MSe of ($30mm) – this is due to lower CAPEX (lowered FY guide as well).

TSLA also reiterated their full year delivery outlook of 360-400k units, but bears will say that matters less given the lack of profitability. Achieving the low end of the FY unit volume guidance may make it difficult for Tesla to increase revenue sequentially... which begs the question of how auto gross margin can improve materially on flattish sequential revenues.

 

[neroden]

I'm just glad Adam Jonas wasn't on the earnings call. We can do without that level of lunacy.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Remember there were people who bought in at 370/share hoping that it'll hit 500 in 3-5 years..those bulls were wrong

It's only been less than a year since 370 so the jury is still out for those bulls.

 

[theschnell]

Regarding service, my Model 3 has 18k miles and no regular service required.

However, I did get into a minor fender bender. I got a service appointment via the app (selected “body repair” or similar). I tried to call the day before my appointment, but the phone tree didn’t have good options so I gave up after about a minute. Go to my appointment, and they tell me super apologetically that they’re not set up yet for body repair appointments. I say “no problem, can I at least get an estimate (which was really all I was hoping for that day). They say sure and take thorough pictures etc. Within a few days I had an estimate via email and they sent to my insurance as well. About a week later I got a text message with status of parts on order. About 2 weeks later I text requesting update. They texted back that they expected in about another week and set up appointment to drop my car off. That’s where I’m at now. My point is that I never spoke to anyone on the phone once, and yet so far I’m very satisfied with the service I’ve received. Process isn’t complete so that could change but some of us can be satisfied without having to talk to someone on the phone. I realize that some cannot and I agree that Tesla certainly should accommodate them, but it’s not all doom and gloom in the service world.

In other news, I was recently at the Toyota dealer for nearly 3 hours getting an oil change and and recall for a software update, of all things. That one trip is far more time invested in service than my Tesla ownership of nearly a year and 18k miles. Anecdotal I realize but with all the anecdotal complaints, doesn’t hurt to have anecdotal customer satisfaction reports.

Anyway, as it relates to investing in Tesla, this quarter not looking bad at all if you take a long term perspective. I did expect their gaap loss to be closer to $200 million so that was a bit painful but car manufacturing is a tough business. But the competition has all but proven that they cannot compete with their woeful attempts, which means over the long run I don’t see how they survive unless they start getting serious very soon. The writing is on the wall, but we may be looking at another 5 - 10 years worst case scenario before we cash in on our foresight.

The model Y is perfectly positioned to capture a large swath of the market. In hindsight I wish I had just waited for it instead of getting the 3, but that’s easier to say now after enjoying a year of ownership. Being on the outside looking in is tough. I finally just pulled the trigger on the 3. Couldn’t wait any longer.

 

[Antares Nebula]

What is incredible is that by next year their qtr run rate will be 150k. And in two years 200k.

Never before a better risk/reward on the stock price.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I didn't really pay attention, but was there this much teeth gnashing about Amazon when they spent all those years chasing growth instead of profits?

 

[Singuy]

It's only been less than a year since 370 so the jury is still out for those bulls.

2 years closing on 3. Based on what Elon said about q1,2 of 2020..500 dollars is not likely.

 

[EVNow]

I didn't really pay attention, but was there this much teeth gnashing about Amazon when they spent all those years chasing growth instead of profits?

Oh yes.

I remember when Bezos even gave a list of things people say about Amazon, including
- Amazon.com should be renamed Amazon.org as clearly it is not for profit ...

 

[SpaceCash]

I didn't really pay attention, but was there this much teeth gnashing about Amazon when they spent all those years chasing growth instead of profits?

No but Amazon's competition just didn't have the same rabid warhawks and oil lords backing them. Matter of fact, Amazon's competition didn't even really realize who they were until it was too late.

 

[EVNow]

2 years closing on 3. Based on what Elon said about q1,2 of 2020..500 dollars is not likely.

Or 8 months back, in December

 

[StealthP3D]

TSLA also reiterated their full year delivery outlook of 360-400k units, but bears will say that matters less given the lack of profitability. Achieving the low end of the FY unit volume guidance may make it difficult for Tesla to increase revenue sequentially... which begs the question of how auto gross margin can improve materially on flattish sequential revenues.

He used "Tesla" and "flattish sequential revenue" in the same sentence?

Wow!

 

[Causalien]

Yea he’s waging everything on it. He said most opted to not get FSD with their purchase of their vehicle and therefore that opens up an opportunity to have many potential customers soon paying for FSD.

$6k is a big price for an incomplete feature currently. Seems like Tesla owners are opting to not join in on the long term vision. Probably the most frustrating thing going on for Musk currently

I'd buy this for my parents. But unfortunately, the complexity and the vigilence you need to keep is not something they can handle. They are totally the type of person who will just assume FSD means you let the car drive itself everywhere. Even if I warn them about all the exceptional cases, they will eventually forget and just let it drive.

Right now, FSD is still too much like Windows. Until it become like an apple phone, I don't think I will buy them for my parents and these are exactly the type of people who needs it the most.