That's exactly what I said about the terribly dull questions, and it seems to me like many answers hardly corresponded with the questions anyway.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
But they had a phone line.
Many Tesla problems can be solved without a service call, but you need to know the process, or they can look in the logs. Not being able to speak to a person is a very big deal. The chat tool would be okay--if there was one. I looked for some time on their site today where it's supposed to be, but no luck. The new phone tree only allows four kinds of personal interaction. For all other questions go to tesla.com/support where you can chat.
The market didn't give it any weight at the end of Q1?
I remember the narrative was no demand, and bankruptcy secured. So how long do we wait until that happens?
This question does not have a good answer.
Y is #1 in line for cells and they'll need 2x the current cell volume.
If going 23gwh->28gwh resolved the bottleneck for 3, then going to max 35gwh with the current hardware is below ~25x2=50gwh for expected 3+Y volume. No cells for truck or whatever else.
To resolve this, they need to talk about path to 2Twh that they'll disclose in Feb 2020 battery investor day and not before.
If they say in Feb that 2Twh comes from Maxcells that will be available in the fall for the Y, they may nuke their 3 sales by doing this, so the Feb may be too early as well. Unless FSD comes first and then people buy whatever cells available (many
from neroden here).Can comfortably see Operating Income swinging back into decent sized profits for Q3, and growing in Q4.
Where was Tasha? Asking for a friend.....
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Battery/Drivetrain day was previously indicated to be Fall-ish 2019, so they’re pushing it back a bit.
Which suggests that they might actually have something substantial to reveal as opposed to just reviewing/explaining what is known but poorly understood, like Autonomy Day.
Which suggests that they might actually have something substantial to reveal as opposed to just reviewing/explaining what is known but poorly understood, like Autonomy Day.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
So...like just about every other year....for just about every other manufacturer as well?
Short term seems like some hard times ahead...
Q3 don't expect profit, right? Q4 is good, so some SP bump is here, but that's 2 quarters of FUD. Ouch, that hurts.
Then Q1 20 is very tough. Prob. seasonal issues? plus low volume China production screwing margins? Plus capex for both China and Y?
So, again big SP drop here? Then pretty tough Q2, prob more capex and tuning, SP depressed?
Depending on how and who is looking at this, even after Q4 19 with good results, if this is served with "expect a big Q1 loss" during ER, then may not be much optimism for SP to rise.
Seems like a whole challenging year ahead.
Will be glad to be wrong.
Q3 don't expect profit, right? Q4 is good, so some SP bump is here, but that's 2 quarters of FUD. Ouch, that hurts.
Then Q1 20 is very tough. Prob. seasonal issues? plus low volume China production screwing margins? Plus capex for both China and Y?
So, again big SP drop here? Then pretty tough Q2, prob more capex and tuning, SP depressed?
Depending on how and who is looking at this, even after Q4 19 with good results, if this is served with "expect a big Q1 loss" during ER, then may not be much optimism for SP to rise.
Seems like a whole challenging year ahead.
Will be glad to be wrong.
They mentioned it being show and tell, so they want the new line with new cells up and running to show when they tell the world about it.
Maybe
Maybe range bound between $200-$260 for the next 12 months then?
Recently added some shares avg about 195, trimmed half of them avg about 240.
Since I have loads of paper loss, thinking of realizing some of the loss tomorrow, and probably buy back a month later, since there still time before q3 delivery.
After Q1 I was sweating bullets due to the 'demand' talk, with no real clarity into the disappointing delivery.
Now I am relaxed. The profit margin, cash flow seems ok to me. Turned out demand problem was imaginary. The problems are production and service, although very important, but easier to deal with.
I think shorts will be able to push SP down further. I will buying 31 days later.
Since I have loads of paper loss, thinking of realizing some of the loss tomorrow, and probably buy back a month later, since there still time before q3 delivery.
After Q1 I was sweating bullets due to the 'demand' talk, with no real clarity into the disappointing delivery.
Now I am relaxed. The profit margin, cash flow seems ok to me. Turned out demand problem was imaginary. The problems are production and service, although very important, but easier to deal with.
I think shorts will be able to push SP down further. I will buying 31 days later.
RFernatt
Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
Regarding FUD and the population, here's an anecdote from someone on another board where I used to moderate. We still keep in touch occasionally and he hit me up this week with some questions about Tesla after I made a post about EV charging on the old board. So, general folks do pick up on the FUD enough to question a purchase. Again, just another anecdote.
"To be honest, I'm not so much concerned abut the technical stuff as I am about Tesla's stability as a company and the continuing changes in pricing and various configurations. I'd hate to pay a premium for something only to have it changed to a standard feature a few months later - like the white paint "option."
I'm also concerned about quality control in general and the quality of materials and equipment in the Model 3, since it's being touted as a luxury car but looks pretty bare bones inside.
The smart move would be to spend a lot less on the Kona EV but then we wouldn't get all the Tesla goodies, including the Supercharging network - that's a big plus for me. I'll continue thinking it over; we really need to go to the Tesla store and check out the cars."
"To be honest, I'm not so much concerned abut the technical stuff as I am about Tesla's stability as a company and the continuing changes in pricing and various configurations. I'd hate to pay a premium for something only to have it changed to a standard feature a few months later - like the white paint "option."
I'm also concerned about quality control in general and the quality of materials and equipment in the Model 3, since it's being touted as a luxury car but looks pretty bare bones inside.
The smart move would be to spend a lot less on the Kona EV but then we wouldn't get all the Tesla goodies, including the Supercharging network - that's a big plus for me. I'll continue thinking it over; we really need to go to the Tesla store and check out the cars."
Maybe Profits in Q3 and very likely in Q4 - continuing positive trend.
As long as Y is still on track to ship in Fall 2020 - some weakness in Q1/Q2 should be easily overlooked in view of the looming revenue explosion and resulting massive profit boost about to hit later in the year.
Just a reminder to all longs: Tesla is around breakeven at the current point of about 100k+ quarterly deliveries (based on Q3 expectations) - once that increases to 150k including higher margin Y in 2nd half 2020, money is going to be absolutely gushing in as the company moves into deep green territory
Antares Nebula
Active Member
As I previously said, significant share sales did not square with JB remaining as CTO. I suspected that he may step down this quarter, esp w/ Drew Baglino on stage during the shareholders meeting. Many batted me down on this. I'm one of the most ardent bulls, but one has to stay objective, esp when money is involved.
Proceed, once again, with the thumbs down.
Proceed, once again, with the thumbs down.
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