Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?

This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.

2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.

I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.

This this this!

Bump and repeat.

 

[Green Pete]

How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?

This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.

2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.

I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.

Honestly because it was kinda mumbled and couldn't honestly tell if it was a serious statement.

 

[sparcs]

How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?

This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.

2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.

I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.

I don't get why there are putting off battery day so long. Waiting on another acquisition? Would that give them enough time to buy Panasonic's cylindrical cell business as someone else speculated here?

2TWh seems difficult under the current relationship they have with Panasonic. Panasonic seems to be diversifying their business away from Tesla.

 

[Big Dog]

The proportion of FSD that is recognised immediately presumably increases as more features have rolled out? Eg every time they have been able to recognise deferred revenue from EAP/FSD updates in the past, then that would mean FSD was more feature complete? Or do they move the percentage complete constantly?

Definitely not constant. Generally, Rev Rec under GAAP is when something is delivered to the customer. So the question for Elon's Controller is, what does the $6/7k represent, i.e., what SW functionality did we promise to the customer for their deposit, and how much have we actually delivered? Then, what are the component costs for what we've delivered and what we still need to deliver.

At a minimum, FSD requires HW3 be installed, so parts and labor for that item alone need to be reserved.

 

[Singuy]

How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?

This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.

2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.

I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.

Can't discuss it with practically zero details. Who knows what the time frame is for 2TWH. Could be another Elon exponential extrapolation magic math..like how he sees FSD.

 

[Gwgan]

JB is (was?) BMS guy. All his patents are there. All talks he made are about BMS.
He has nothing to do with the batteries. Apparently Tesla slows down on BMS development and focuses on new types of cells.
Beside possible burnout (see Tom Mueller) his reason for retirement can be a "personal" project, like it was the case with Jerome.

I suspect he is off to work on his recycling project

 

[Thekiwi]

I just want to remind everyone what Elon said about future quarter growth:

Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality".
Q3 & Q4 2020: "Will be incredible" (this is the Y effect)

I think we should heed those comments about Q1 & Q2 being tough very seriously. it might mean flat or even shrinkage in sequential deliveries, even though production might move higher as Shanghai is fully online (So we might get net production exceeding deliveries for those 2 quarters with some inventory build). Thankfully the year on year Q1 comparison will be an easy beat at least.

 

[davecolene0606]

How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?

This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.

2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.

I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.

YES, TOTALLY!!!

ITS THE BATTERIES STUPID!!,

FIre Away!

 

[ReflexFunds]

I don't get why there are putting off battery day so long. Waiting on another acquisition? Would that give them enough time to buy Panasonic's cylindrical cell business as someone else speculated here?

2TWh seems difficult under the current relationship they have with Panasonic. Panasonic seems to be diversifying their business away from Tesla.

At this stage there is zero chance they are not making future cells in-house.

 

[elasalle]

FCF sounds good, until we consider the # of cars in transit at end of Q1 ...

 

[davecolene0606]

I just want to remind everyone what Elon said about future quarter growth:

Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality".
Q3 & Q4 2020: "Will be incredible" (this is the Y effect)

I think we should heed those comments about Q1 & Q2 being tough very seriously. it might mean flat or even shrinkage in sequential deliveries, even thigh production might move higher as Shanghai is fully online (So we might get net production exceeding deliveries for those 2 quarters with some inventory build). Thankfully the year on year Q1 comparison will be an easy beat at least.

IMHO don’t think shrinkage in production #’s rather, Capx increases.

Fire Away!

 

[goinfraftw]

How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?

This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.

2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.

I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.

Aren't they planning a Battery Day much like the Autonomy Day soon?

 

[ReflexFunds]

Honestly because it was kinda mumbled and couldn't honestly tell if it was a serious statement.

It was not at all ambiguous.
"For battery day we're going to do a comprehensive review of cell chemistry, module and pack architecture and a manufacturing plan that has a clear roadmap to a TWH per year. The timing of this is probably about 6 months or February or March next year. Show and tell."

He later doubled down to 2TWh.

Elon: "To some degree battery day will kind of be master plan part three. Which will be how do we get from tens of GWh per year to multiple TWh per year. That's a pretty giant scale increase. That's an increase of roughly 100x. "
Elon: ... "How do we get to like 2TWh per year"
Drew?: "That's the way you have to think about it because that's what you need to do."
Elon: "Yeah exactly. In order to really make a fundamental shift in the world's energy usage, and really transform things to a sustainable energy future, if you're not in the TWh range its a nice news story but its not fundamentally changing the energy equation"

 

[davecolene0606]

FCF sounds good, until we consider the # of cars in transit at end of Q1 ...

Could u elucidate more explicitly?

Thanx

Fire Away!

 

[elasalle]

Having attended the shareholder's meeting, I instantly realized JB was leaving when he and Drew were brought onstage by Elon. It was obvious, and it was my first thought.

Hearing Elon joke about S and X spelling SEXY just now on the call and hearing him say S/X in the same breath are not that important in the long term is really shocking. Makes me think their days are numbered.

S/X will chug along from Fremont, until MY and then one day we will find out that S/X lines being moved to co-locate with Semi, Roadster and all kinds of upgrades will happen all at the same time.
Looks like mgmt is happy with like 15K/Quarter till then

 

[KarenRei]

OT: Starhopper livestream:

Please don't discuss here

 

[EVDRVN]

I used to think it was all ball bearings but now I know it's cat avatars.

 

[davecolene0606]

Aren't they planning a Battery Day much like the Autonomy Day soon?

Nope, according to call it seems like spring 2020.

Correct if I didn’t hear that right.

Fire Away!

 

[Joe F]

Spacex star hopper test flight NOW.

 

[neroden]

And here's what's been going on with deliveries:

Delivery shennanigans & terrible customer service

More communications problems, but an attitude problem too.

The important part is in message #10:
Delivery shennanigans & terrible customer service

"And frankly the logistics of the added trip weren't insurmountable. but the cable-company level of customer service was really the tipping point."