Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

Only that you did link your personal situation to the demand in Europe

Well thats likely because I am in Europe

 

[mekberg]

This is laughable and shows that Ford doesn't get it.

Ford Mustang Hybrid Might Still Pack A Powerful V8

Should pop TSLA on pure competitor ineptitude.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

* some things are just better left as abbreviations (spelling them out doesn't really help) but BOFH := "Bastard Operator From Hell"

You should have simply linked to the source material.

 

[KarenRei]

Barron's - 3 minutes ago: Investors Are Too Gloomy About Tesla Stock, Analyst Says

Exactly the sort of thought I want people to have in the back of their mind when we get to the Q4 report: "Did we oversell?"

Here's my good scenario: We keep drifting up, maybe ending ~$310 at market close on Wednesday. ER comes out and EPS isn't as good as Q3, but it's close. 20% margin hit or exceeded despite the lower ASP, lots of FCF, etc - general healthy numbers. Lots of 3-demand reaffirmation on the call, smoothing over any S/X worries, some big positive surprises, reiterating plans to pay the convertibles with cash, etc. Stock pops ~10% to ~$340 on the first day, then drifts further up each day as people digest the news and new investors drift in now that Tesla has had two profitable, good quarters. Shorts feel the squeeze, amplifying the movement. Basically, like Q3.

Here's my nightmare scenario: We go into earnings drifting *down*. Well under $300. Then we get a bad report. Minimal EPS, clear miss. Poor FCF, big margin drop. Attempts to reaffirm demand and calm S/X worries come across as weak. The stock falls even further. New potential investors are scared off. No good action until Tesla pays off the convertibles on 1 march and eliminates that issue from the FUD arsenal.

I really don't think that scenario is going to happen - any part of it. But given the market's behavior recently, I have a worry-pit in the back of my stomach about it that won't be gone until after the ER. :Þ

Anyway, hopefully there's some good Brexit news on Tuesday - MPs voting on some sort of clear path that will lead to a binding solution, rather than the chaos and uncertainty that currently dominates. Any macro boost is a good boost. Any progress in the China trade talks would also be very welcome. At least the government is open again...

 

[BaneBeater]

Re: Service

Just reviewed Tesla’s service locations in North America & realized we have major gaps in geographic coverage! Sorry for this foolish oversight. Tesla will aim to cover all regions of NA (not just big cities) within 3 to 6 months.

Elon Musk on October 16th

There hasn't been a single service center opening since then. While he still has 3 months left, the data on property leases in this article is not promising:

Elon Musk said Tesla would fill its North American service gaps in three to six months. Three months later, not a single US service center has opened.

 

[gringotuanis]

M

Exactly the sort of thought I want people to have in the back of their mind when we get to the Q4 report: "Did we oversell?"

Here's my good scenario: We keep drifting up, maybe ending ~$310 at market close on Wednesday. ER comes out and EPS isn't as good as Q3, but it's close. 20% margin hit or exceeded despite the lower ASP, lots of FCF, etc - general healthy numbers. Lots of 3-demand reaffirmation on the call, smoothing over any S/X worries, some big positive surprises, reiterating plans to pay the convertibles with cash, etc. Stock pops ~10% to ~$340 on the first day, then drifts further up each day as people digest the news and new investors drift in now that Tesla has had two profitable, good quarters. Shorts feel the squeeze, amplifying the movement. Basically, like Q3.

Here's my nightmare scenario: We go into earnings drifting *down*. Well under $300. Then we get a bad report. Minimal EPS, clear miss. Poor FCF, big margin drop. Attempts to reaffirm demand and calm S/X worries come across as weak. The stock falls even further. New potential investors are scared off. No good action until Tesla pays off the convertibles on 1 march and eliminates that issue from the FUD arsenal.

I really don't think that scenario is going to happen - any part of it. But given the market's behavior recently, I have a worry-pit in the back of my stomach about it that won't be gone until after the ER. :Þ

Anyway, hopefully there's some good Brexit news on Tuesday - MPs voting on some sort of clear path that will lead to a binding solution, rather than the chaos and uncertainty that currently dominates. Any macro boost is a good boost. Any progress in the China trade talks would also be very welcome. At least the government is open again...

Macro is nice for Tesla ...but imo earnings is the truly critical thing.

 

[elasalle]

Pier 80
Walter MacVane on Twitter
#4. Grand Aurora is about to depart for Europe via Panama

+
GRAND AURORA, Vehicles Carrier - Details and current position - IMO 9279331 MMSI 351828000 - VesselFinder ( 8 days Feb 3rd to Panama)

 

[abasile]

From that article:

Pomona, California. What appeared to be a new service center opened in Pomona, California in October according to TMC reports but it turns out to be something a bit different. Not listed as an official Tesla service center, Pomona instead appears to be a Tesla Body Repair Support Center. Photos show a facility that is far more spartan than a typical Tesla service facility.

I know from personal experience that Tesla does indeed have a new service center in Pomona. As long as they can fix our cars, I don’t care if the place is on the Spartan side.

Overall, this hit piece may (or may not) be mostly true. But it does take time to get the ball rolling on new facilities. Elon was probably being too optimistic on the timing, not the first time that’s happened!

Re: Service

Elon Musk on October 16th

There hasn't been a single service center opening since then. While he still has 3 months left, the data on property leases in this article is not promising:

Elon Musk said Tesla would fill its North American service gaps in three to six months. Three months later, not a single US service center has opened.

 

[KarenRei]

M

Macro is nice for Tesla ...but imo earnings is the truly critical thing.

Hey, anything that tacks another $5-50 to the stock price, I'll take it Remember how much the markets (incl. Tesla) lost on macro worries before Christmas?

 

[M3Rider]

How so? 25,000 miles at 25/mpg = 1,000 gallons x $4/gal = $4,000, or $3,500 in savings.

As far as gas comparison, I see most people are not being objective.

If you compare 3 to an ICE, then use 35mpg gas efficiency. If you compare S/X to an ICE then you can use 25mpg for S or 20mpg for X.

But S/X will also run less on kWh, <3miles.

My formula for the charge rate equivalent to gas is:

3: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 4/35

S: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 3/25

X: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 2.6/20

Federal road maintenance tax=$.184 / gallon in the U.S.
You pay this separately with EV registration (or will pay in the future)

And btw, in some places like CO grocers let you pay less for gas at their pumps - if you spend $1k/mo at King Soopers in CO (which is = Ralphs in CA), you get -$1/gallon for a tank of gas, which I used to do biweekly, so on average $.5/gallon less, which you don't get with charging.

You don't spend 5x less with electricity. More like 30-50% less. Which is not the main reason for owning an EV anyway.

Maybe Europe/CAN/CA is a different case. But I hear charging rates in CA are twice as normal too.

 

[anthonyj]

Re: Service



Elon Musk on October 16th

There hasn't been a single service center opening since then. While he still has 3 months left, the data on property leases in this article is not promising:

Elon Musk said Tesla would fill its North American service gaps in three to six months. Three months later, not a single US service center has opened.

What’s it matter anyway? Tesla’s don’t even exist. They are merely holograms. Elon is a shapeshifting reptilian and the Earth is flat. Bulls are so delusional believing into this Ponzi scheme of a company. #TSLAQ

 

[ggies07]

 

[AudubonB]

Re: Service



Elon Musk on October 16th

There hasn't been a single service center opening since then. While he still has 3 months left, the data on property leases in this article is not promising:

Elon Musk said Tesla would fill its North American service gaps in three to six months. Three months later, not a single US service center has opened.

In all fairness, Tesla and Mr Musk also have said that their long-term plan is to perform all but the uttermost intractable service issues through a combination of over-the-air solutions (not so great for bad tires, etc.) and "Ranger"-type roving service agents, rather than by opening new service centers.. I've been on the receiving end of that service to great approval. I do NOT know the extent to which Tesla believes it has filled these gaps.

 

[EVNow]

Hey, anything that tacks another $5-50 to the stock price, I'll take it Remember how much the markets (incl. Tesla) lost on macro worries before Christmas?

I guess you are now loaded with calls ? What did you get ?

Interestingly, today the IV was flat - but lower compared to last week. It shot up last Friday with the big SP drop - but has slowly dropped. Some of the calls I bought yesterday at around 390 are at the same level or even lower today when the SP is at 397 !

After the ER, as the IV drops and time value drops, expect $10 to $20 SP increase just to break even, depending on strike & expiration. In Q3 IV dropped from 80% to 60%. Today IV is at 67% - so may drop by 10% or so.

350 strike call expiring 2/15, for eg, is around $4 today. It will be $1.60 on 31st if the price doesn't change. Break even is around $315. Most of the calls I bought this week are 3/15 expiring, but further OT - so I need the SP to be around $320 for break even.

 

[RobStark]

Maybe they'll pay them triple-time. I'll work any day for triple time...

In the worker's paradise they pay quadruple time.

 

[RobStark]

As far as gas comparison, I see most people are not being objective.

If you compare 3 to an ICE, then use 35mpg gas efficiency. If you compare S/X to an ICE then you can use 25mpg for S or 20mpg for X.

What ICEv that is comparable to a Model 3 gets 35 mpg?

 

[Remus]

As far as gas comparison, I see most people are not being objective.

If you compare 3 to an ICE, then use 35mpg gas efficiency. If you compare S/X to an ICE then you can use 25mpg for S or 20mpg for X.

But S/X will also run less on kWh, <3miles.

My formula for the charge rate equivalent to gas is:

3: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 4/35

S: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 3/25

X: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 2.6/20

Federal road maintenance tax=$.184 / gallon in the U.S.
You pay this separately with EV registration (or will pay in the future)

And btw, in some places like CO grocers let you pay less for gas at their pumps - if you spend $1k/mo at King Soopers in CO (which is = Ralphs in CA), you get -$1/gallon for a tank of gas, which I used to do biweekly, so on average $.5/gallon less, which you don't get with charging.

You don't spend 5x less with electricity. More like 30-50% less. Which is not the main reason for owning an EV anyway.

Maybe Europe/CAN/CA is a different case. But I hear charging rates in CA are twice as normal too.

What kind of car get 35mpg in real life? Daily commute in stop and go traffic a corolla gets high twentieth. Only when you cruising below 70 does it get higher than 35.

 

[RobStark]

Electrify America Shuts Down All 150-350 kW Fast Chargers Over Safety Issue

Electrify America Shuts Down All 150-350 kW Fast Chargers Over Safety Issue

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

As far as gas comparison, I see most people are not being objective.

If you compare 3 to an ICE, then use 35mpg gas efficiency. If you compare S/X to an ICE then you can use 25mpg for S or 20mpg for X.

But S/X will also run less on kWh, <3miles.

My formula for the charge rate equivalent to gas is:

3: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 4/35

S: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 3/25

X: (gas price per gallon - road maintenance tax) * 2.6/20

Federal road maintenance tax=$.184 / gallon in the U.S.
You pay this separately with EV registration (or will pay in the future)

And btw, in some places like CO grocers let you pay less for gas at their pumps - if you spend $1k/mo at King Soopers in CO (which is = Ralphs in CA), you get -$1/gallon for a tank of gas, which I used to do biweekly, so on average $.5/gallon less, which you don't get with charging.

You don't spend 5x less with electricity. More like 30-50% less. Which is not the main reason for owning an EV anyway.

Maybe Europe/CAN/CA is a different case. But I hear charging rates in CA are twice as normal too.

My experience with BMWs of similar performance to M3 is more like 13l/100km, that's around 18mpg.
also
Mercedes E350 of much lower performance than my model S60, my long term average is 16l/100km for Mercedes or 235 Wh/km for Tesla. Lots of city driving.

My cost per km (Canada) is about 10x lower with Tesla than ICE when I charge at home overnight

 

[Unpilot]

Electrify America Shuts Down All 150-350 kW Fast Chargers Over Safety Issue

Electrify America Shuts Down All 150-350 kW Fast Chargers Over Safety Issue

Ruh roh