Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

its so cute when people have no idea what they are replying to.
I have not said the stock has no value, it has value BECAUSE IT ENTITLES YOU TO DIVIDENDS. The reason why people will give me something for them? BECAUSE THAT ENTITLES THEM TO THE DIVIDENDS. For crying out loud, why is this so complicated to grasp? They dont have value because the certificates have a shiny logo on them.

 

[capster]

So people still valuing their tesla stock based on...the fact that someone else may value their tesla stock higher in the future...presumably because those 'someone else' types think that a third person values them higher in the future future because.... what?
Share buybacks achieve nothing, but reducing the number of people entitled to DIVIDENDS. Being taken over is only something that happens because another company thinks the target company will boost profits enabling them to... drumroll... pay out DIVIDENDS.

This is not a matter of opinion, but mathematical fact. There is NO way to get your money back that you invested in a company other than through
a) DIVIDENDS or
b) Selling the right to future dividends to somebody else.

Anyone who honestly thinks that a company has any value whatsoever, on any planet, in any universe, if it will never pay out its profits to its owners.... well you should get the hell out of the stock market now because you have ZERO idea what you are doing.

This has *absolutely nothing* to do with your personal trading strategy, which may be to speculate on SP rises due to far off potential dividends (which you don't want to wait for), or may be a more traditional dividend based strategy.
How is this so complex? Its scary to me that people have no idea what a share is, or what it represents, and yet they trade them.

Huh. I guess I know zero.

I focus on whether substantial value will be created. Such insight is enough for me should I be so fortunate as to come by it sooner than most everyone else.

There are a number of ways for those who share in the ownership to realize that value once created.

Not selling, just the same.

 

[KarenRei]

Kona catches fire no one give a crap, Tesla catches fire -> world news. Why is Tesla being singled out?!

Kona didn't just catch fire, it outright exploded. I've never seen a case like it before.

I don't know if you've seen the followup news. But:

• The garage had to be demolished. It doesn't look like the home will be.
• Hyundai has launched a formal investigation
• The owner says that the car wasn't charging, or even plugged in. Investigators however have declined to confirm this claim, which I thought was weird.
• There was smoke coming from the garage before the event. The owner went and shut off the breakers, and then seconds later, the garage exploded.

It seems like a fuel-air mixture had built up in the garage (vaporized electrolyte? Syngas from smouldering plastics?) which then ignited. But why, who knows. This is a weird case.

 

[traxila]

TSLA showed great strength today against the Macros.

This bodes very well for the next couple of weeks.

All the best!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

ok, looks like the mental age of 'investors' here is about twelve so...**** it. im outta here. enjoy your memes.

 

[JRP3]

Just dropped by my local service center in Pomona to order Model 3 cabin filter and there was no one sitting/waiting around for service. Quality must have been trending up just like Jerome said

Obviously no one can contact a service center to make an appointment.

 

[Unpilot]

A real investor doesn't say "If it can make it to $300, then maybe it can make it to $600" (and so forth).

A true investor knows what the true potential value of a business is and takes action on that knowledge. They don't look to the market to confirm their thesis while taking baby steps each time the market seems to agree, they make bold moves based on solid and informed convictions. No one ever became wealthy who needed the market to continually reaffirm their beliefs.

Aint that true....however I did "jump in" more based a a certain 420 tweet.

 

[Congo Line]

Is she actually this dumb, or just cynically trolling for new clients?

Yeah not sure what to make of this. I do own some ARK etf. Maybe I'm just not a radical enough thinker, but this statement makes me worry me that she is a little far off the wagon.

Are battery costs really expected to go down that far/fast? One would expect if that is the case, that Tesla's margins should increase over the next few quarters at a notable rate.

 

[Antares Nebula]

its so cute when people have no idea what they are replying to.
I have not said the stock has no value, it has value BECAUSE IT ENTITLES YOU TO DIVIDENDS. The reason why people will give me something for them? BECAUSE THAT ENTITLES THEM TO THE DIVIDENDS. For crying out loud, why is this so complicated to grasp? They dont have value because the certificates have a shiny logo on them.

I think we should follow the mathematicians lead here and axiomatize this vaguely defined notion of "dividends", so everybody knows precisely what we are talking about. No room for argument. 1+1=2 or it doesn't.

Oh my gosh, this is hilarious! Come on people. Outsiders looking in on us are going to think we are a bunch of monkeys arguing over dividends and stock values. We don't want to give them more ammo. Shorts and the media already think we are delusional.

I think the mods should just come in here and nuke all of this dividend talk stat! Better yet, just nuke the whole of today's discussions and be done with it. Kill 'em all and let God sort it out!

 

[StealthP3D]

ok, looks like the mental age of 'investors' here is about twelve so...**** it. im outta here. enjoy your memes.

 

[LTC_RRR]

I think what happens here is that most of the time when links are posted here on TMC, the TMC code automatically formats the title of the link or article (instead of just "http://..."). So in such cases, users don't have to in addition cut and paste the article title (like I have to at, say, Seeking Alpha).

But for whatever reason, this doesn't seem to work with the Bloomberg cite (so I do have to cut and paste the article title). If you're not used to doing it for other links, then it is easy to forget to do it for Bloomberg. I don't think it's intentional. Maybe TMC software folks can look at this. But it could be a problem inherent to Bloomberg and unavoidable??

Example:

China vows fight against Trump's latest tariffs as stocks sink - Reuters

Stock Traders Have Theories About the Timing of Trump’s Tariff Tweet
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Notice how the Reuters link is properly formatted with the title of the article, but the Bloomberg link is not, and therefore I have to in addition cut and paste the title. It's an extra step, but I agree that it's worth it, as posting uninformative links is kinda annoying. But I could see how folks could forget to do it when, in most cases, TMC does it for you.

@ggr @Right_Said_Fred @AudubonB

Could be because Bloomberg is behind a PayWall (after third free article you must subscribe)

 

[Todd Burch]

Love Cathie Woods!!! Not selling my shares until 6000.
Tesla, Bitcoin, and the Inverted Yield Curve Herald a New Era of Growth

Somebody please remind me to set a sell order at $5999.99. Thanks.

 

[Unpilot]

Somebody please remind me to set a sell order at $5999.99. Thanks.

Weak long

 

[KarenRei]

Is she actually this dumb, or just cynically trolling for new clients?

It's possible. That's a 50kWh pack. At $75/kWh at the pack level in 5 years (currently probably uder $100/kWh at the cell level), that's $3750. Add in a $650 drive unit (currently ~$850) and that's $4400, and you've got your powertrain covered. Assuming 5% margins on the barebones 15k vehicle, you have $14,3k to spend, so the rest of the car (incl. labour and depreciation) can be nearly $10k. Should be doable in sufficient bulk with a sufficiently refined production process.

 

[Fact Checking]

Are battery costs really expected to go down that far/fast? One would expect if that is the case, that Tesla's margins should increase over the next few quarters at a notable rate.

Well, 200 miles range needs about ~45 kWh battery pack, which with the current ~$130/kWh pack level costs would be about $5,850. I'd guess that the gasoline powertrain in a Toyota Camry costs around $6k-$7k.

So unless the rest of the car gets cheaper it's hard to see a $25k car's EV equivalent drop much below $20k. For a $15k price there would have to be significant simplifications in the rest of the EV car.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's possible. That's a 50kWh pack. At $75/kWh at the pack level in 5 years, that's $3750. Add in a $650 drive unit and that's $4400, and you've got your powertrain covered. Assuming 5% margins on the barebones 15k vehicle, you have $14,3k to spend, so the rest of the car (incl. labour and depreciation) can be nearly 10k. Should be doable in sufficient bulk with a sufficiently refined production process.

But a $25,000 Camry will have about $15k to spend on the non-powertrain components - more than the $10k the EV can spend.

So it would be an apples to oranges comparison: that hypothethical $10k EV car BIW could have a $7k gasoline powertrain slapped on it and could be sold for $20k.

I think it's much safer to say that a $20k EV which is comparable to a $25k Toyota Camry is possible if things continue to improve, assuming steady improvements and neither break-throughs nor innovation barriers.

$15k looks like a real stretch to me.

Nor is a $15k EV really necessary: a $20k EV that is better than $25k gascars will kill all gasoline products dead already.

 

[Off Shore]

Somebody please remind me to set a sell order at $5999.99. Thanks.

I already tried. Broker won't take it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m not even trying to be imaginative and I know there’s not even a remote chance I’ll be alive to see a dividend - and yes, I plan on seeing 2030 and beyond.

Based on your Catvatar, may I suggest an analgesic for your skin condition?

CH33RS!

 

[Off Shore]

Based on your Catvatar, may I suggest an analgesic for your skin condition?

CH33RS!

I thought that was carbon fiber.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla doesn't have to advertise, because oil companies realize the gig is up and advertises Tesla's cars for them. Witness Chevron advertising the Model 3. Lol!

Chevron on Twitter