Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

There does appear to be some efficiency gains but it is not knowable whether these gains will be enough to offset the increased fixed overhead and the reduced economies of scale across the board for S&X.

Fixed depreciation spread over all produced cars :
Q1 '17 : 16k
Q1 '18 : 12k
Q1 '19 : 5.4k
Q2 '19 : 4.8k
Assuming - 1,500 variable depreciation for s&x and 500 for 3. So, depreciation cost has gone down by 10k for s&x in 2 years.

ps : You won't see this in gross margin since not all depreciation is allocated to cars - some of that goes into SG&A or R&D.

 

[dhrivnak]

I can't help but wonder if that electric Ford F150 train pull promo was only made to give current truck owners a reason not to buy the Tesla pickup.

We haven't heard anything except whispers about the electric Ford F150, and then out of the blue they launch that macho promo video that's long on tricks (only takes 2k lbs of force to pull a 1 mil lb train) and short on details. Ford might not release an electric truck until 2030, but just the fact that it's coming will give current F150 owners pause before buying a Tesla.

No I think it is a very valid selling feature. Trucks are often used to tow. I take my Tesla’s to many local cars shows in truck country an people notice my hitches right away and the vast majority are very surprised it can tow well. I best most people still have a golf cart mentality when it comes to EVs.

 

[EVNow]

Yes as my 72xx vin is also very good in fit and finish.

Mine is ~19,000 - excellent fit & finish too.

Either he is looking at very early cars (~1000 ?) or there is real variability in early cars (for 5k ?). May be he considers even 10% error rate bad (which is true when making 1k per day) - yet 90% of owners think their cars are excellent ?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Unless Tesla comes out with a video with their pickup pulling 2 million pounds of train cars

This guy did a video and calculated it would only take about 1875 pounds of force to pull that train, and 22.5 horsepower to maintain a constant speed of 4.5mph. Wouldn't be hard for Tesla to top that.

 

[KarenRei]

This guy did a video and calculated it would only take about 1875 pounds of force to pull that train, and 22.5 horsepower to maintain a constant speed of 4.5mph. Wouldn't be hard for Tesla to top that.

To be fair, Tesla has pulled this same gimmick, with the airplane and with the TBC ore carts.

Actual towing limits are about:

• Tongue weight (the biggest one) - 10-15% of the weight of the trailer is ideally resting on your tow hitch, and thus transferring the weight to your rear suspension - including when the trailer "hops". For an EV, this will be your primary limit.
• Brake fade when descending down a slope. Not generally an issue for EVs due to regen.
• Ability to accelerate reasonably in traffic and, more critically, climb slopes. Not generally an issue for EVs due to abundant power/torque.
• Structural limitations. Not usually a limit for either ICEs or EVs if the vehicle is designed for towing, but may impose issues on retrofits.

Anyone who wants to make an EV have a really crazy-high towing limit will primarily need to focus on the rear suspension.

 

[PhaseWhite]

I ordered Model 3 Performance. Figured I’d snag one before Tesla files for bankruptcy later this month ya know. White on White with FSD
View attachment 437631

Congrats! I got my P3D- last Sept and love it. It's the perfect daily driver.

Congrats on the M3P. Thinking of getting one myself, but somehow I keep putting everything in TSLA. Delayed gratification...

Everyone's financial situation is different but if you can afford it: You only live once.

 

[trentbridge]

Dunno, one on the driveway might be alright as well. The garage is for junk. At least, that's how we do it in Britain.

I live in a new housing (tract) estate in Northern Nevada and the single family residence comes with a three car garages - actually room for two vehicles and the bulk stuff we bought at Costco - and yet the majority of my neighbors don't put a single vehicle in their garages..

Having said that, Tesla owners are different because they will always park their Tesla in the garage next to the recharging point because outside isn't a good option in the winter.

 

[Off Shore]

Congrats! I got my P3D- last Sept and love it. It's the perfect daily driver.



Everyone's financial situation is different but if you can afford it: You only live once.

Nope. If you can afford a Tesla and don't have one, you haven't lived at all.

 

[Skryll]

Dunno, one on the driveway might be alright as well. The garage is for junk. At least, that's how we do it in Britain.

That’s how we did until we replaced the first gas car with electric and cleaned up the garage for it. No oil dripper in my garage but now that both cars are electric and charging over night is easier that way things are so much better. Love the garage door automation, too.

 

[scaesare]

There's a bug in the software that doesn't work with Bloomberg for whatever reason, and it trips up people from time to time.

Actually, I don't believe it's a bug in TMC's forum software, but rather Bloomberg's site logic that attempts to thwart site content-scraping efforts.

 

[kengchang]

Scott Black on Twitter

Thank you Simon Williams of the UK

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Weekend thought (well, actually a thought that has been bugging me for some time):

I’ve been accumulating shares and do not plan to sell any until they are worth at least ten times as much (and probably not even then). I know many of us on this board are in the same position. And we know of other people who get to know Tesla, see its huge potential and also buy shares as a long term investment. With Tesla selling 100,000 cars per quarter, mostly to first time Tesla owners this group is expanding. Which brings me to my question: will we run out of shares?

Many of the 175+ million shares are in the hands of Elon, Larry, Tencent, the Saudi’s and large institutional investors. Even though there was some selling, the total number of shares in the hands of big investors doesn’t seem to be going down. With the number of private long term investors growing daily, will there eventually be a shortage of shares?

Every day between 5 and 10 million shares change hands, but I believe that is mostly trading by daytraders, trading programs, shorts, marketmakers, etc.). I think many of those shares are traded multiple times a day.

Does anyone see any signs that the supply of shares may be drying up due to more and more stocks ending up in the hands of long term holders?

 

[bhtooefr]

To be fair, Tesla has pulled this same gimmick, with the airplane and with the TBC ore carts.

Actual towing limits are about:

• Tongue weight (the biggest one) - 10-15% of the weight of the trailer is ideally resting on your tow hitch, and thus transferring the weight to your rear suspension - including when the trailer "hops". For an EV, this will be your primary limit.
• Brake fade when descending down a slope. Not generally an issue for EVs due to regen.
• Ability to accelerate reasonably in traffic and, more critically, climb slopes. Not generally an issue for EVs due to abundant power/torque.
• Structural limitations. Not usually a limit for either ICEs or EVs if the vehicle is designed for towing, but may impose issues on retrofits.

Anyone who wants to make an EV have a really crazy-high towing limit will primarily need to focus on the rear suspension.

And, in the US, the standards are even stricter, as pickups are rated to the SAE J2807 standard.

• The vehicle and maximum weight trailer must be able to launch from a stop up a 12% grade and go 5 m (16 ft). It must do this five times in a row within 5 minutes.
• The 12% grade launch test is then repeated in reverse. (This is easy for an EV, because reverse is just as easy as forward.)
• The vehicle must accelerate from 0-30 MPH with the trailer on level ground in 12 seconds for single rear wheel, 14 seconds for dual rear wheel.
• It must accelerate from 0-60 MPH with the trailer on level ground in 30 s for SRW, 35 s for DRW.
• It must accelerate from 40-60 MPH with the trailer on level ground in 18 s for SRW, 21 s for DRW.
• The vehicle and trailer must be able to climb the Davis Dam Grade on Arizona State Route 68 for 11.4 miles at a minimum (not minimum average, absolute minimum) speed of 40 MPH for SRW, 35 MPH for DRW. Ambient temperature must be at least 100 °F, air conditioning must be set for maximum cold, outside air selected, max blower speed selected. No component failures are allowed, no warnings to the driver are allowed, and no coolant may be lost. This is an interesting one, because... does power limiting count as a warning? If so, an EV may need a massively oversized cooling system to do well at it.
• 0 degrees per g understeer with 0% front axle load restoration and a 0.4 g or less lateral acceleration with a fifth wheel hitch
• 0 degrees per g understeer with 50% FALR and a 0.4 g or less lateral acceleration
• 0 degrees per g understeer with 100% FALR and a 0.3 g or less lateral aceleration
• Trailer sway damping ratio of 0.1 at 100 km/h (62 MPH)
• Combination stopping distance of 80 feet or less from 20 MPH with a trailer over 3000 lbs, and trailer and truck must stay within 3.5 m (11.5 ft) lane during test
• Parking brake must hold truck and trailer on a 12% grade, both directions, at maximum weights for both

Some of these are really hard, especially that Davis Dam test...

Source, FWIW: SAE J2807 Tow Tests - The Standard

 

[Prunesquallor]

Scott Black on Twitter

Thank you Simon Williams of the UK

That is one big ship.

 

[anthonyj]

Weekend thought (well, actually a thought that has been bugging me for some time):

I’ve been accumulating shares and do not plan to sell any until they are worth at least ten times as much (and probably not even then). I know many of us on this board are in the same position. And we know of other people who get to know Tesla, see its huge potential and also buy shares as a long term investment. With Tesla selling 100,000 cars per quarter, mostly to first time Tesla owners this group is expanding. Which brings me to my question: will we run out of shares?

Many of the 175+ million shares are in the hands of Elon, Larry, Tencent, the Saudi’s and large institutional investors. Even though there was some selling, the total number of shares in the hands of big investors doesn’t seem to be going down. With the number of private long term investors growing daily, will there eventually be a shortage of shares?

Every day between 5 and 10 million shares change hands, but I believe that is mostly trading by daytraders, trading programs, shorts, marketmakers, etc.). I think many of those shares are traded multiple times a day.

Does anyone see any signs that the supply of shares may be drying up due to more and more stocks ending up in the hands of long term holders?

Call me a tinfoil hat wearer, but part of my investment thesis is this. I feel that a lot of trading that we see is part of an act. To “steal” shares, shake the retail longs out, slowly accumulate shares and cause a short squeeze. Another theory of mine is that we will be range bound forever since market makers make an absolute killing off of the option premiums. But I do believe that the SP will rise to new heights one day. I’ve turned skeptics into literal Tesloons after taking a ride in my car. I don’t need much proof other than that

 

[Fact Checking]

Does anyone see any signs that the supply of shares may be drying up due to more and more stocks ending up in the hands of long term holders?

Yes, I think the $177 low with crazy levels of selling might have been proof of that: there were reports that much of that selling at the bottom was shorting.

I.e. very few long term holders were willing to sell at those levels, despite a hurricane of Q1 FUD.

 

[1101011]

Happy day in the UK.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Weekend thought (well, actually a thought that has been bugging me for some time already):

I’ve been accumulating shares and do not plan to sell any until they are worth at least ten times as much (and probably not even then). I know many of us on this board are in the same position. And we know of other people who get to know Tesla, see its huge potential and also buy shares as a long term investment. With Tesla selling 100,000 cars per quarter, mostly to first time Tesla owners this group is expanding. Which brings me to my question: will we run out of shares?

Many of the 175+ million shares are in the hands of Elon, Larry, Tencent, the Saudi’s and large institutional investors. Even though there was some selling, the total number of shares in the hands of big investors doesn’t seem to be going down. With the number of private long term investors growing daily, will there eventually be a shortage of shares?

Every day between 5 and 10 million shares change hands, but I believe that is mostly trading by daytraders, trading programs, shorts, marketmakers, etc.). I think many of those shares are traded multiple times a day.

Does anyone see any signs that the supply of shares may be drying up due to more and more stocks ending up in the hands of long term holders?

I think it's likely there are already more than 175 million shares in long term hands. Many people also own the 42 million virtual shares created by the Tesla shorts. So in reality long investors already own over 215 million real + virtual shares. Exactly how many of these are in the hands of swing traders, I don't know. I expect a lot of shares/daily volume are also owned by derivatives market makers/investors to help support or hedge their much larger options positions. The Tesla share price is actually also very distorted by the huge size of its options market relative to market cap, and how many investors hold exposure through call options rather than shares. If these investors took the same exposure through shares instead there would be much more demand for shares and the share price would be much higher (I'll caveat that many people have very unconvincing theories that an options market cannot reduce demand for shares).

Exactly what price each long Tesla investor will sell at is hard to know though. As i said the other day, the price of a company is just the equilibrium point where each individual investor’s fair value estimate is at least the current share price (within this there will be a large distribution of fair value estimates, x% of investors at +0-10% of current price, y% at +20-50%, z% at +50-100% etc). For Tesla I expect a large number of shares are owned by people who's fair value estimate is multiples of the current price. However many people will see their value estimates passed by the share price as lack of share supply leads to higher pricing, and many of these people will sell out at this point so there will always be a flow of share supply if the price is rising (or if people are reducing their valuations faster than the share price is falling).

 

[jerry33]

Mine is ~19,000 - excellent fit & finish too.

Either he is looking at very early cars (~1000 ?) or there is real variability in early cars (for 5k ?). May be he considers even 10% error rate bad (which is true when making 1k per day) - yet 90% of owners think their cars are excellent ?

Fit and finish on my 5k car is just fine. Perhaps he's using 1/10 mm as a go-no go.

 

[jerry33]

This guy did a video and calculated it would only take about 1875 pounds of force to pull that train, and 22.5 horsepower to maintain a constant speed of 4.5mph. Wouldn't be hard for Tesla to top that.

As I said previously. Land-Rover did it decades ago with the 4 cylinder engine. This is not a great feat.