Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Note that that's not exactly a denial either. It might be pure speculation and still be true.

Manager Magazin had high level VW leaks in the past too, such as these details about VW's internal targets and costs:

Tesla Model 3 cost surprised Porsche and Audi after reverse-engineering - Electrek​

I have the impression that this leak was a trial balloon by VW top management - in part to pressure Elon, in part to sound out the opinion of the big Volkswagen shareholders.

The only legacy OEM that has really tried/been forced to go EV realises the difficulty in catching up to Tesla and thinks buying them is the only way to compete.

The problem with buying Tesla is that you have to pay the with Elon price but only receive the ex Elon value.

 

[LN1_Casey]

@NBDPress
“China will support suitable regions to test banning #gasoline-based vehicles, and will set a timetable to phase out such vehicles if the pilot areas prove successful, said the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Tuesday.”

Please. BMW said no one is buying electric cars. This is never going to happen.

After all, they'd never lie to us.

...Right?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Looking at the dc fast charging queue convinced me Tesla or bust in Norway. Way too many electrics and no one has the time to wait a hour just so you can wait another 30mins. Man Tesla's are no brainers..no wonder people are willing to spend the extra money for a model S there. The model 3 just made all the electric cars obsolete.

That's a short term problem. So many startups are burning cash building fast charging that supply will catch up.

 

[Curt Renz]

The VW denial I quoted:

Volkswagen spokesman Pietro Zollino [...] saying in a statement, “It’s completely unfounded. It’s pure speculation.”​

Is a rather standard non-denial denial:...

During my many years in the news media I learned that when someone refers to a comment as being "speculation" or "unfounded", it usually turns out that the original assertion is substantially true. A denial really needs to be more absolute to be completely credible.

 

[KSilver2000]

How I look forward to the first "suitable region," like a city or county, in the United States that announces a timetable for the phase-out and banning of vehicles that burn fossil fuels. I suspect it's still, alas, a ways out, but when it does come--and it will--I suspect it will be in California. Oh, the furious lobbying effort on behalf of the oil, gas, convenience store, franchise dealer, and automaker industries on that one will be something to behold. Can't wait.

If any city in the US were to test this, I'd be willing to bet it would be Berkeley, CA.

Banned natural gas hookups into new residential buildings.
Banned single-use disposable foodware from restaurants.
Banned plastic bags and straws.
Residents continually approving (in sweeping fashion) every single ballot measure that increases taxes for environmental or social matters.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It sounds like a strong denial to me.

BTW, if VW were to think of a tie up with Tesla, wouldn't they do it in total secrecy ?

ps : Another possibility may be the CEO floated the idea - and there are people opposed to the idea and they leaked it to the press to kill the idea.

Put it this way: he never said it wasn’t true. Something can be unfounded and speculation and still be 100% true. Unfounded and speculation just mean that there’s no public information that it’s true.

 

[EVNow]

Nissan Leaf 0-100 km/h is 7,9 s and it has sold over 400 000 cars

0-100 really is not so important metric for most car buyers.

To be clear, i’m not saying whether VW ID is good or bad car, just that 7,5 s 0-100 time is not the problem in its segment (compact family car).

Yes - 0 to 100 isn't that important. Price is a much more important criteria - and range + charging options.

One note on Leaf selling 400k cars though - it had no competition in that price range for a long time and atleast in US higher sales of Leaf always came when Leaf leases were very cheap. My second Leaf lease was $125/month, for eg.

ps : Leaf's highest sale in US was in 2014 @ 30k a year.

 

[DFibRL8R]

How I look forward to the first "suitable region," like a city or county, in the United States that announces a timetable for the phase-out and banning of vehicles that burn fossil fuels. I suspect it's still, alas, a ways out, but when it does come--and it will--I suspect it will be in California. Oh, the furious lobbying effort on behalf of the oil, gas, convenience store, franchise dealer, and automaker industries on that one will be something to behold. Can't wait.

Many convenience store chains such as Sheetz and Wawa have been installing SuperChargers. Perhaps they realize that profits from in-store sales exceed those from selling gas, especially if the EV customer will stick around for 20-30 minutes to "fill up". Interestingly, Wawa even announced they are building a new store in Fairfax, VA with only SuperChargers, no gas pumps!

https://www.bizjournals.com/washing...proaching-northern-virginia-beltway-with.html

 

[EVNow]

Unfounded and speculation just mean that there’s no public information that it’s true.

That may be true for outsiders, but when the company issues that statement it would mean the news has no foundation in truth. For eg., if they are talking to Tesla about it and internally discussing it at the board level, that statement would be considered misleading.

 

[Curt Renz]

FreightWaves through Benzinga - hour ago: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Today's Pickup: No-Deal Brexit Might Unleash An Explosive Growth In Grey Market Goods

With continuous improvements in battery range, there could soon come a time when electric cars are functionally and financially a better option compared to a gasoline-powered car for the average consumer.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Would that BEV organization still be within the Volkswagen Group (unifying the somewhat conflicting Audi, Porsche and Volkswagen BEV platforms) - or does Diess desire a BEV alliance broader than that, between German carmakers, perhaps with foreign carmakers included as well?

A broader, top-heavy alliance is not what Diess has in mind, I think. VAG is in to dominate, not make time.

Which is why Tesla looks like such an appetizing "treat".

Thankfully off the menu, though.

By the way: this is where Wall Street and local management have failed time and again. Countless American firms have sold out to international enterprises with their sights firmly set on the giant world market. The outsize gains go to those who come out on top in the global leagues.

 

[EVNow]

Interestingly, Wawa even announced they are building a new store in Fairfax, VA with only SuperChargers, no gas pumps!

Yes, convenience stores don't care if it is gas or electric. They just need a way to pull in customers. Infact electric is so much better for them - cleaner, don't have to constantly monitor and change prices, people stay for longer etc.

But many of them will have to up their décor and upkeep. Ideally add a coffee bar and light snacks.

 

[brian45011]

I would think that depends on what is in all of the 248 contracts. But if Walmart is suing already my guess is that there isn't a mandatory arbitration clause.

Nearly all courts require alternate dispute resolution before allowing a trial. Usually mediation but binding & non-binding arbitration are also ADR.

 

[Curt Renz]

That may be true for outsiders, but when the company issues that statement it would mean the news has no foundation in truth. For eg., if they are talking to Tesla about it and internally discussing it at the board level, that statement would be considered misleading.

Misleading at least temporarily is often the intent. As I implied above from my news media experience, the terms "speculation" and "unfounded" can be flags pointing to the high likelihood of substantial truth in the incompletely denied original assertion.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Matias]

Some food for thought:
teslas stock price is lower now than it was 5 years ago. Before a single model 3 existed, before the Y,roadster,pickup announcement, before the autonomy investor day, before announcement of GF3. Before the development of HW3. before a roadster got shot into freaking SPACE. Before the true specs of the taycan, or e-tron or VWs ID were known (and disappointed).

The gap between the true valuation of this company and the current SP is phenomenal.

It could also be, that TSLA was overvaluad 5 years ago. It probably was.

BTW 2014 there were 125 million stocks, now 177 million, if share price is the same, company market cap has increased

 

[Unpilot]

I wonder if the MM's can get the SP up to 225...maxpain and all.

 

[EVNow]

Misleading at least temporarily is often the intent. As I implied above from my news media experience, the terms "speculation" and "unfounded" can be flags pointing to the high likelihood of substantial truth in the incompletely denied original assertion.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Interesting - do you remember any company saying this, but was later confirmed to have been actually true ?

In politics people use this routinely - but in politics we know people routinely lie.

ps : Was this statement in German and was translated ? In that case we should really see what the original statement was and how that is usually interpreted in Germany.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yes - 0 to 100 isn't that important. Price is a much more important criteria - and range + charging options.

There's one important exception I think: for mass-manufactured premium passenger vehicles, regardless of the form factor, it has to be seen by the customer as exceptional in at least one key metric:

• exceptional safety (Volvo)
  
• or exceptional performance (BMW, Porsche)
  
• or exceptional luxury (Audi, Mercedes)

Price, while a factor, is secondary.

I believe there's a good reason to believe that sales of premium cars command about 70% of all the cash generated by the automotive sector, the battle for the EV future will be fought not via being able to sell EV econoboxes, but through selling premium models.

That is why I think Volkswagen, instead of positioning the ID3 straight against the Model 3 and the Model Y, escaped to a smaller form factor (VW Polo/Passat form factor), where I think they will try to capture or at least protect the premium half of that market before Tesla comes and takes the best customers away.

Acceleration will matter too when compared to the Model 3 - and the $36,000 starting price IMO looks too close to Tesla's pricing be able to compete with the Model 3 on price alone.

 

[Causalien]

A broader, top-heavy alliance is not what Diess has in mind, I think. VAG is in to dominate, not make time.

Which is why Tesla looks like such an appetizing "treat".

Thankfully off the menu, though.

By the way: this is where Wall Street and local management have failed time and again. Countless American firms have sold out to international enterprises with their sights firmly set on the giant world market. The outsize gains go to those who come out on top in the global leagues.

It'd be funny if USA gave up one of its crown jewel tech advantage to a German company. Then having China offering 500 bil to buy out the German group and swallow all the tech. Cause this has happened before to corps with smaller market caps.

All of this due to some kind of hatred towards Tesla. I still don't get it. Many normal people don't get the hate either, but it's out there.

 

[KSilver2000]

Yes, convenience stores don't care if it is gas or electric. They just need a way to pull in customers. Infact electric is so much better for them - cleaner, don't have to constantly monitor and change prices, people stay for longer etc.

But many of them will have to up their décor and upkeep. Ideally add a coffee bar and light snacks.

Convenience store owners like turnover just like with restaurants. You just have to trust me on this as I have clients who either own the business, property, or both. People don't visit convenience stores to lounge and shop around. That's what a coffee shop is for.

And I ask this out of curiosity: As utilities are slowly shifting residential customers onto TOU, is there any evidence showing utilities willing to sell electricity at cheap enough fixed rates throughout the day to station owners? Or will station owners need to charge different rates at different times of the day?