Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

As long as you’re doing that, why not just build a CO detector into the garage door opener(or, since CO is heavier than air, the laser detector thing on the door) and automatically opens the door if levels get too high?

Yes, an even better solution!!! Or even vent the garage with forced air if opening the door is a concern. Good idea!

 

[ZachF]

So, let me know if I got this right...

1. Tesla keeps reducing COGS every quarter during a greater-than-linear scale up of production.
2. ~$1.5B in deferred revenue (e.g. Autopilot). If a product isn't delivered, it can't be noted as revenue under GAAP principles by the SEC.
3. Tesla generates, now, >$6B per Q and just posted a $400M loss.

What happens when they realize Autopilot deferred revenue? When they open up broad access? What happens when China sales from GF3 come in (w/ reduced sales tax)? What happens to margins?

What happens?

B A N K W U P T C Y !

 

[Buckminster]

Lots of M3 reviews in UK at the moment:
Tesla Model 3 vs BMW 3 Series: electric car vs diesel showdown
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus 2019 UK review | Autocar
All pretty good.

 

[StealthP3D]

Somewhere in that mess, I see the real concern about non-operating time during repairs. Will be interesting to see how that works out for all parties involved.

What are you talking about? It sounds like you came here straight from Seeking Alpha!

The Bargersville Police Department will probably save time and money on service and repairs because they will no longer have to do regular oil and filter services (and police cruisers need a lot of those). Let's not even mention brakes. Oh, wait, I just did! The police chief seems like an intelligent, soft-spoken guy who knows what he's doing and doesn't read Seeking Alpha stories. He even mentioned how the tires and windshield wiper blades cost less on the Tesla vs. Dodge Charger!

My wife and I have had our Model 3's for 17 months and 11 months and neither one has needed a lick of service over the last 26,000 trouble-free miles (except for tire rotations). My AWD P3D- probably wouldn't have even needed that except I change into winter rubber each winter.

 

[dc_h]

The most interesting thing about Q2 deliveries was that - in EU (and China?) there was not much of a difference between Q1 and Q2 (~20k), even though total Q2 was 51% more than Q1.

It was US that made the big difference(~60k vs ~30k). Tax credit related pull forward and seasonality crushed US sales in Q1. It recovered in Q2 and seems to be doing ok in Q3.

In other words, what will determine Q3 sales is the US sales - esp. September ones. That is what makes overall delivery numbers for Tesla difficult to estimate. In Q2, but for various leaks from within Tesla, almost no one would have estimated >90k.

I think Europe will be up at least 5000, even mark smegal is predicting 26,000. If they are really sending a ship or two via Philadelphia they could top 30,000. USA seems like it will be higher just based on so many more cars on the road. Surprise here in Chicagoland is big increase in X’s, but 3’s have definitely shot up here and the product love word of mouth matters more then FUD and advertising. If USA is up, Canada steady and new Australia NZ sales then sales should be over 100,000 and possibly over 105,000.
If they do hit 105,000 deliveries and 23-24% gross margins, they could be close to gaap profits. GM 23% adds ~300 million bottom line and added sales another 100 million plus potential credits, which were low in Q2. If they can hit 105k in Q3 and guide higher in Q4 expect more stories about solar
105,000 sounds like a lot, but is only 8032 total cars a week. If they maintain guidance and approach 10,000 a week, 105,000 starts looking very reasonable.

 

[StealthP3D]

Still think the production # is the key factors for Q3, no production increase = no delivery increase.

What do you think the chances are Tesla didn't increase production in Q3 vs. Q2?

Remember the old saying, "The trend is your friend"! Except for the shorts. They must be watching production increases with horror (particularly the rapid building of factory #3)!

 

[Skryll]

As long as you’re doing that, why not just build a CO detector into the garage door opener(or, since CO is heavier than air, the laser detector thing on the door) and automatically opens the door if levels get too high?

Why not install a tesla home charger instead and replace the ICE clunker with a modern electric car? The value of the ICE is going to drop dramatically over the next years as people recognize the difference.

 

[KarenRei]

What do you think the chances are Tesla didn't increase production in Q3 vs. Q2?

Remember the old saying, "The trend is your friend"! Except for the shorts. They must be watching production increases with horror (particularly the rapid building of factory #3)!

Even if there is no increase whatsoever in production rates this quarter, total production would still be higher, because the rate was trending up across Q2, so Q3 started out at a higher rate than Q2. The "no rate increases at all" scenario would mean something like 78k Model 3s this quarter. Any less than that would mean that production rates dropped relative to the end of Q2.

 

[Stars aligned]

People bring up sentry data as an issue and don't even bother to extrapolate out 5 years. If these cameras are taking in everything at every angle and feeding it back to a neural net modeling a real time representation of the environment.....then feeding pictures to the police is the last thing you should be worried about.

In 5 years or so if these are everywhere Tesla(police, FBI, NSA, Jason Bourne) will have a real time living map of where every person is and what they're doing at any moment in time. AI is going to be.....interesting.

A tragic comedy. In this forum, no one pays attention to the likely consequences. Other priorities prevail.

Happy to know some places where the technology won't arrive for many years to come. Much better life there, for sure. At least for me.

 

[kengchang]

What do you think the chances are Tesla didn't increase production in Q3 vs. Q2?

Remember the old saying, "The trend is your friend"! Except for the shorts. They must be watching production increases with horror (particularly the rapid building of factory #3)!

I think it is reasonable to expect Model 3 to hit 80K in Q3 and maybe 85K?
S/X also has to go up to 16K-18K

 

[WarpedOne]

What do you think the chances are Tesla didn't increase production in Q3 vs. Q2?

Remember the old saying, "The trend is your friend"! Except for the shorts. They must be watching production increases with horror (particularly the rapid building of factory #3)!

You still believe majority of shorts are here to make money?

 

[StealthP3D]

You still believe majority of shorts are here to make money?

No, I get it, they are here to dissuade sales, sully Tesla's reputation, put a negative slant on EV's in general, and keep a lid on share prices. But I'm not sure how their motivation plays into my comment. Production increases are exactly what they don't want to see.

 

[Skryll]

You still believe majority of shorts are here to make money?

Of course they are. But with trillions in tax dollars flowing into oil and gas subsidy every year, the biillions lost over a year from short positions turning sour are pocket change compared to the billions of dollars not lost by slowing down electrification and innovation by suppressing funding. Will be interesting how that plays out when tesla becomes more immune to the need of capital market access, but I bet a lot of early adopter customers like me bought in at $200-$350 range expecting this to go much higher within one or two years and including distance LEAPS and now were not able to upgrade their 2016 Model X with a 2019 Model X Raven. That is revenue forgone because of shorting keeping the stock artificially below value.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Worth mentioning the Roadster, when it finally starts shipping, every 1000 roadsters sold will boost the ASP by $1000 on 200,000 cars

Only if ASP has fallen to zero by the time Roadster ships

So NL+NO+SP QoQ Q3 is leading Q2 by 382 vehicles as of today

And early Q2 was artificially boosted by Q1 delivery troubles.

European July deliveries were very close to April. No RoRos arrived either month, so I've pretty much set the artificial boost theory aside.

The Netherlands is going berserk. I read incentives will decline next year, but it seems awfully early for demand pull-forward. Q3 has one extra day over Q2 plus UK will add a lot, so even if non-UK holds steady Europe will post a healthy increase.

 

[DrKenneth]

Musk just retweeted from Tesla:

“Last month we had over 2 million Supercharger sessions, totalling 72 GWh of energy. That could power: - Hawaii for three days - the Republic of Ireland for a day - playing 'You're Beautiful' on repeat from every device in your house because Karen just left you”

Terrible PR. It needs to contain an assessment of how many litres (gallons) of fuel were left in the ground, and how many km (miles) of travel were enabled.

I actually did some back of a napkin math with this. 72 GWh equals about 45 million liters of fuel assuming 5 miles/kWh and 30MPG. Thats about 18 olympic swimming pools. That sounds impressive but then I converted it to gas station equilevants. An average gas stations sells about 3 million liters of fuel a year (at least in Europe). So the entire Supercharger network equals about 180 gas stations in miles/kilometers enabled. A lot less than I would have though. Obviously ICE cars can't be charged at home though but still. There are bout 150k gas stations in the US alone.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Ok, if there are genuinely lower risks then it should be relatively straightforward for Tesla to offer multi-car insurance to.

Especially secondary non-Tesla ICE cars should be easy for Tesla to insure: they know that those cars won't see nearly as much use as before.

they know that those cars won't see nearly as much use as before

Exactly my situation

 

[StealthP3D]

I actually did some back of a napkin math with this. 72 GWh equals about 45 million liters of fuel assuming 5 miles/kWh and 30MPG. Thats about 18 olympic swimming pools. That sounds impressive but then I converted it to gas station equilevants. An average gas stations sells about 3 million liters of fuel a year (at least in Europe). So the entire Supercharger network equals about 180 gas stations in miles/kilometers enabled. A lot less than I would have though. Obviously ICE cars can't be charged at home though but still. There are bout 150k gas stations in the US alone.

Tesla has the stats on this but I imagine Supercharger miles are less than 10% of the total miles. A more comprehensive calculation would be to take the total Tesla fleet miles for one year and crunch from there. Anyone know how many miles the Tesla fleet is currently adding per month/year? Because it's got to be growing pretty rapidly.

 

[WarpedOne]

Production increases are exactly what they don't want to see.

It is not black and white, they are also happy to just slow down the progress.

And they are succeeding big time.

 

[StealthP3D]

It is not black and white, they are also happy to just slow down the progress.

And they are succeeding big time.

You must have a weird definition of what "succeeding" means.

 

[Papafox]

I sometimes on this forum hear horror stories about the shorts doubling their stake in TSLA to create some type of super bear attack, but this is not going to happen. Why does shares shorted top out typically at not much more than 40M shares? The answer is that the interest rate that shorts have to pay to borrow TSLA goes up quickly beyond a certain point, due to demand and supply of shares to borrow. Nefarious foes of Tesla could indeed afford to short more shares, but unless the prospects for Bankwuptcy look promising and near term, a lot of retail shorts who are in it to make money would be forced out of the game, due to the interest payments. You would have one type of short replacing another type of short, and interest rates would make this happen.