Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

It is not black and white, they are also happy to just slow down the progress.

And they are succeeding big time.

I didnt realize shorties were responsible for Panasonic's battery cell production woes

In all seriousness, the most effect that FUD and shorts have had is slightly affecting demand for the top trim levels of the S/X/3 and thus forcing Tesla to lower prices sooner than they would have preferred. But even then, I'm in the camp that thinks the number of potential customers for those price brackets was the limiting factor.....not FUD.

 

[jerry33]

I actually did some back of a napkin math with this. 72 GWh equals about 45 million liters of fuel assuming 5 miles/kWh and 30MPG. Thats about 18 olympic swimming pools. That sounds impressive but then I converted it to gas station equilevants. An average gas stations sells about 3 million liters of fuel a year (at least in Europe). So the entire Supercharger network equals about 180 gas stations in miles/kilometers enabled. A lot less than I would have though. Obviously ICE cars can't be charged at home though but still. There are bout 150k gas stations in the US alone.

As most BEV drivers do most of their charging at home, there will never need to be as many charging stations as gas stations. The only thing that the SCs are really missing are the gaps in the Interstate and the State highways. So maybe four to eight times the number of locations as there are now, plus increases the in number of charging spots per location. (Not counting Semi charging stops). Sure, right now condos and apartments have difficulties, but that will eventually go away and no one will rent where they can't charge.

 

[lascavarian]

Why not install a tesla home charger instead and replace the ICE clunker with a modern electric car? The value of the ICE is going to drop dramatically over the next years as people recognize the difference.

So true... and with the insurance savings the home charger is even more affordable

 

[EVMeister]

Important Tesla news (if you work for PETA or love cows): Tesla on Twitter. The Model 3 interior is now 100% leather free. Including the steering wheel.

 

[kengchang]

Important Tesla news (if you work for PETA or love cows): Tesla on Twitter. The Model 3 interior is now 100% leather free. Including the steering wheel.

So no more PETA girl at annual shareholder meeting?

 

[EVNow]

… if you work for PETA or love cows): ...

Or just happen to care about the environment

ps :

 

[WarpedOne]

You must have a weird definition of what "succeeding" means.

Elon in 2016: 4 gigafactories by the end of the year.
Q.E.D.

Those who could see, already do.

 

[Beltsbear]

It's my understanding that FSD will require "mapping" areas to create a prediction/probability models where all vehicles will be aware of things like potholes and curb locations ahead of time. Does that not require all data to flow into Tesla?

If the data is flowing, then the NSA has it. I would think anyway.

That kind of data, while useful, is not the kind the NSA usually intercepts. Many agencies would enjoy that data, but few are going to collect and store that without a specific target in mind.

 

[powertoold]

So no more PETA girl at annual shareholder meeting?

She'll come to make sure Elon isn't wearing any leather products.

 

[EVMeister]

Or just happen to care about the environment

I don't like the environmental impact of manufacturing steering wheels of any material. I say get rid of them entirely!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Elon in 2016: 4 gigafactories by the end of the year.
Q.E.D.

Those who could see, already do.

But shorts and FUD had no impact on that. The realities of battery cell production made it impossible

 

[Thekiwi]

Only if ASP has fallen to zero by the time Roadster ships

eh? I said would BOOST ASP by $1000, not raise it to $1000. Unless I misunderstand you?

hypothetical 2021 sales for a quarter:

200,000 non-roadsters (S3XY) at ASP of $50,000 = $10,000,000,000
First 1,000 founders roadsters at ASP of at least $250,000 = $250,000,000

$10,250,000,000 / 201,000 cars = $50,995 ASP

(Ok I was $5 off with the $1000 ASP bump)

Which still leaves us with the question how many Roadsters actually will be sold.
I.e. not given away as freebee to referral code peddlers.

on the Ride the lightning podcast appearance we at least got an upper limit of “no more than 10,000 roadsters per year”.

there of course will be pent up demand for the first year, but following that one would think it’s in the low single thousands, and there will be some cannibalisation of the model S. (Poor model S, getting eaten from above AND below.)

 

[WarpedOne]

The reality of (lack of) capital on hand made it impossible.

 

[Thekiwi]

Wouldn't it be easier to simply hire three-shift workers to count every car leaving the Freemont factory 24/7?

Their salaries could be covered with a few trades right before quarterly delivery numbers were announced.

I struggle to believe Hedge funds aren’t doing this already. Could even install a webcam on a neighboring property and have it monitored remotely by interns.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The reality of (lack of) capital on hand made it impossible.

Eh I'd say i disagree with that and I think it would have been a colossal mistake for Tesla at that time to try and scale 4 gigafactories considering how difficult its been in scaling battery cell production. Just securing the raw materials would have been a logistic nightmare

Elon was definitely talking out of his a$$ there and as most of us here have complained, Elon doesn't think his comments and projection through

 

[WarpedOne]

Of course, but the stand that shorts did no harm/slowing is mistaken. Greatly mistaken.

 

[EVNow]

I don't like the environmental impact of manufacturing steering wheels of any material. I say get rid of them entirely!

I believe Musk is working on that.

 

[PaulusdB]

What are you talking about? It sounds like you came here straight from Seeking Alpha!

The Bargersville Police Department will probably save time and money on service and repairs because they will no longer have to do regular oil and filter services (and police cruisers need a lot of those). Let's not even mention brakes. Oh, wait, I just did! The police chief seems like an intelligent, soft-spoken guy who knows what he's doing and doesn't read Seeking Alpha stories. He even mentioned how the tires and windshield wiper blades cost less on the Tesla vs. Dodge Charger!

My wife and I have had our Model 3's for 17 months and 11 months and neither one has needed a lick of service over the last 26,000 trouble-free miles (except for tire rotations). My AWD P3D- probably wouldn't have even needed that except I change into winter rubber each winter.

You got me wrong.
I came from the Twitter link and am not talking about (regular) maintenance and scheduled service on the cars, but lengthy damage repairs. Things like replacing fenders, bumpers, suspension parts, broken lights and windows. Police cars typically don’t live the life of garage queens. Tesla still needs to improve parts availability, workshop capacity and the logistics involved.

As we learned from the latest German example, Tesla is not inclined to treat their fleet owners differently from their other customers. That’s why I think it will be an interesting (show) case for all parties involved.

 

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 448861

I think it is reasonable to expect Model 3 to hit 80K in Q3 and maybe 85K?
S/X also has to go up to 16K-18K

tesla guided to increased production and deliveries quarter on quarter, but we should be careful about expecting too much more growth for model 3 out of Fremont going forward.

US production of 3 is probably not too far from it’s near term peak, as soon they will be offloading a chunk of China model 3 demand to Shanghai to produce and reconfiguring Fremont to start Y production, (and within a couple of years presumably European factory will serve Europe model 3 demand.)

IIRC Elon says probably around 750k-1 million near term annual global demand for model 3 in its current form (presumably with a $35k entry price) - which would be split amongst at least 3 factories in 3 primary markets. (This is decidedly different to what he says about potential robotaxi demand, and likely doesn’t include cannibalisation effect from a possible cheaper smaller Tesla model in future).

Is anyone still expecting Fremont to hit 10k model 3 output per week?

 

[KarenRei]

Is anyone still expecting Fremont to hit 10k model 3 output per week?

Nah. I suspect that the target is now 7k (+3k in GF3).

But 7k/wk is still 91k/quarter.