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Catching up or falling further behind?

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So I spent 6 hours in or around the dealership waiting for the issues to be fixed. At least they had some nice hot drinks and biscuits, I tried 5 of each! ;)

Surely you didn’t have to sit in the waiting room for 6 hours. Gotta stretch the legs every so often.
Well ok then.
 
I have read or watched about four reviews of the Porsche Taycan turbo this morning. The consensus seems to be that it has the best handling, the best steering and the best interior of any EV at this point. The reviews seem pretty fair, and not biased.

Some of them outright say it’s the best EV. Some say they’ll have to compare to Model S later.

They only mention that WLTP “up to” range and they only quote 270 kW charging, not the critical km/min. metric on which Teslas win.

Porsche may have been pretty clever. It’s kind of a mishmash in between a model three, and a model S, and a roadster two. It doesn’t compete directly with any of them.
 
I have read or watched about four reviews of the Porsche Taycan turbo this morning. The consensus seems to be that it has the best handling, the best steering and the best interior of any EV at this point. The reviews seem pretty fair, and not biased.

Some of them outright say it’s the best EV. Some say they’ll have to compare to Model S later.

They only mention that WLTP “up to” range and they only quote 270 kW charging, not the critical km/min. metric on which Teslas win.

Porsche may have been pretty clever. It’s kind of a mishmash in between a model three, and a model S, and a roadster two. It doesn’t compete directly with any of them.

Jalopnik had a review... and it started out very favourable in general... but then the reviewer got in a Model S Raven at the end and now they're not so sure:

https://jalopnik.com/the-electric-2020-porsche-taycan-what-we-learned-over-1838333674

Indeed, from the comments section, they're not sure even if money were not an issue:

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The chatter is because at least one non-EAP owner (Steve Jobs' ghost) has allegedly received v10:
Steve Jobs Ghost on Twitter

I saw that one, as well. I'm just saying that the minute (ok, fine, within the hour) that the roll-out actually begins, TeslaFi will tweet it out and we'll be able to see dozens/hundreds of vehicles on TeslaFi getting it. At this stage they have a large enough sample size that any rollout to the fleet at large is reflected on TeslaFi pretty much immediately. If there's ever chatter about a major release happening and you don't see a concurrent tweet from TeslaFi, the chatter is either wrong or referring to something still in controlled release to an extremely small group.
 
I have read or watched about four reviews of the Porsche Taycan turbo this morning. The consensus seems to be that it has the best handling, the best steering and the best interior of any EV at this point. The reviews seem pretty fair, and not biased.

Some of them outright say it’s the best EV. Some say they’ll have to compare to Model S later.

They only mention that WLTP “up to” range and they only quote 270 kW charging, not the critical km/min. metric on which Teslas win.

Porsche may have been pretty clever. It’s kind of a mishmash in between a model three, and a model S, and a roadster two. It doesn’t compete directly with any of them.

Hope the Roadster pays great attention to interior and luxury feel - leather seats what have you's. This seems to be the only metric that Porsche outdoes Tesla ... IMHO
 
I see this as "bullish". There are no tweets or internal emails yet quoted about the need to sell x thousands of Model 3s to meet the quarter's goal. I think Tesla has strong end-of-quarter pushes in Europe, UK, and Australia but a stronger August delivery total appears to have ameliorated the need for a frantic end of September delivery hell.

Could mean several things:
- they're so over the goal it's not needed
- they're so far under the goal there's no point
- there is no goal...
- emails haven't leaked
- etc.
 
Not sure if this has been posted here before:

Can Porsche Beat Tesla With Its New Taycan EV?
With its breakneck speed and high-tech luxury, Porsche’s all-electric Taycan could spell doom for internal-combustion engines, says Dan Neil. But it might not be the best EV on the market
Can Porsche Beat Tesla With Its New Taycan EV?

Summary:

  • Internal combustion is doomed - China air quality, $91 billion commitment by Volkswagon, electric vehicles are better vehicles
  • Taycan is twice the car of Porsche's Panamera, but only 5/8ths of a Tesla Model S
  • Dan was with Porsche's engineers at the Nurburring when they laid down a 7:42 lap time
  • Taycan not a threat to Model S. Model S has more range, is lighter, is quicker and half the price
  • Round 1 goes to the Champion (Tesla, I assume). "But it's going to be a long fight"
 
Well, it certainly increases the odds of profit this quarter. That's probably a couple hundred million dollars right there.

I'd guess less than $100m will be recognized in Q3:
  • only a part of deferred revenue is FSD related,
  • only a small part of the delivery milestones has been met via Smart Summon: there's still stop light recognition, traffic sign recognition, unprotected left turns, etc. - to make FSD feature complete.
  • Only U.S. FSD owners are getting V10 for now, and only those who opted in.
I'd guess $50m deferred revenue recognized in Q3.

@EVNow might be able to give more accurate figures.
 
I'd guess less than $100m will be recognized in Q3:
  • only a part of deferred revenue is FSD related,
  • only a small part of the delivery milestones has been met via Smart Summon: there's still stop light recognition, traffic sign recognition, unprotected left turns, etc. - to make FSD feature complete.
  • Only U.S. FSD owners are getting V10 for now, and only those who opted in.
I'd guess $50m deferred revenue recognized in Q3.

@EVNow might be able to give more accurate figures.

#1 - Agreed
#2 is entirely Tesla's discretion as to how to categorize features; e.g. they could classify numerous things toghether as "city driving"
#3 - The US makes up most of FSD buys. And I can't imagine how a user's lack of opting in cannot can be counted as not delivering.

That said, I did some checking, and it looks like the expected recognition over 12 months, as of last quarter is $462,3M. So perhaps a quarter of that would be more realistic. It will also mean that the % of current (this quarter) and future FSD sales that have to be deferred decreases. It should lead to a somewhat greater FSD take rate, including some post-sale purchases (probably little this quarter due to how little time is left however).
 
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Remember this guy?

RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, who was cut off by Elon Musk during an earnings call, says he will “hold Tesla accountable” for performance.

Yesterday he upped his forecast for Q3 deliveries from 86,300 to 97,200.

Why? Same old trick, we’ve seen this over and over again, a week before the release all predictions go up to make sure there is never a wall street surprise.

If Tesla doesn’t deliver 100,000+ the stock will tank next week to below $200, I’m on record for this prediction.
 
I have read or watched about four reviews of the Porsche Taycan turbo this morning. The consensus seems to be that it has the best handling, the best steering and the best interior of any EV at this point. The reviews seem pretty fair, and not biased.

Some of them outright say it’s the best EV. Some say they’ll have to compare to Model S later.

They only mention that WLTP “up to” range and they only quote 270 kW charging, not the critical km/min. metric on which Teslas win.

Porsche may have been pretty clever. It’s kind of a mishmash in between a model three, and a model S, and a roadster two. It doesn’t compete directly with any of them.

Out of curiosity, how many of the reviewers have driven the performance Teslas? Not rhetorical, but I’ve read so many reviews by people who have never driven Tesla performance models. That’s like a restaurant critic who only eats fast food reviewing a Michelin starred restaurant.

It’s almost like publications want to avoid knowledgeable reviewers. Of course, that couldn’t possibly be true.
 
CNBC - car that didn't fill up "gas" tank runs out of "gas". Film at 11. This is real news guys.

Tesla owners buying soda or cigarettes?

Maybe WaWa can sell cucumber infused still water for $10.

Matcha or Kombucha tea for $15
Wawa does have pretty good food for a convenience store. I recommend the meatball sub. ;)

Remember this guy?

RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, who was cut off by Elon Musk during an earnings call, says he will “hold Tesla accountable” for performance.

Yesterday he upped his forecast for Q3 deliveries from 86,300 to 97,200.

Why? Same old trick, we’ve seen this over and over again, a week before the release all predictions go up to make sure there is never a wall street surprise.

If Tesla doesn’t deliver 100,000+ the stock will tank next week to below $200, I’m on record for this prediction.
I like when they make a bold prediction and say how they are more bullish on the stock, but then hedge by keeping the stock price the same.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Artful Dodger
CNBC - car that didn't fill up "gas" tank runs out of "gas". Film at 11. This is real news guys.


Wawa does have pretty good food for a convenience store. I recommend the meatball sub. ;)

I like when they make a bold prediction and say how they are more bullish on the stock, but then hedge by keeping the stock price the same.


So his target price for the stock the same but he estimates a roughly $2.4 billion annual sales increase... Totally makes sense