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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Big fan of Him... when he predicts he is doing it based on way more knowledge than anyone here. And his track record is pretty good.
I'm way invested in TSLA...thanks for your concern.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Saying you want to convert an ICE factory to cell making and another to a BEV factory is a different thing from actually doing it.
I think the people "dumping" on GM are doing so precisely because they are not starting to change. Watch what they do, not what they say.
Unfortunately there is a demonstrably and repeatedly negative bias from the market makers. I sold covered calls over the last week at 250, 260, 270, 280 strikes. All expired worthless (woo-hoo) except for the 250 calls that I bought to close today and still made money on (thank you theta decay). I'm a hard-core bull (80% in TSLA) but can't ignore the free cash getting close to quarterly earnings. EDIT: I also collected $3k in premium on an expired $220 put I sold months ago during one of those dips (since I'm a bull at heart).
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Now that Ford has a seat on the board I give them a 30/70 chance.
How long after their trades does ARK post, e.g. close to real-time? hours later? end of day? It's interesting if they place all their trades all at once and at 1pm.
X Fan
Active Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
BTW., there's a potential upside with deferred revenue recognition:
If each FSD (or old EAP) customer tried out Summon five times on average, then that's at least 110,000 customers who received the feature.
It could potentially be higher: not everyone has V10 installed, and quite a few might have been in "wait and see". So the number of FSD customers might be as high as 200,000.
If Tesla recognizes just $1,000 of the deferred revenue of (which is around $3,000-$7,000, with a median of around $4,500 I believe), then the revenue recognized could be in excess of $100m.
Or not - if Tesla wants to help Q1 numbers instead then they might be recognizing Smart Summon more conservatively.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
BTW., I noticed that on the FSD order page Tesla has updated the list of existing features with Smart Summon, but the delivery of the remaining two FSD features is still listed as "coming later this year":
But they didn't.
Which might just mean that they forgot to update the webpage - but it might also mean that they might plan to release at least one more FSD feature in the holiday season.
There's a mysterious tweet by Elon a week ago, suggesting an FSD holiday surprise:
I'm not sure he'd be sending out confident, teasing smileys if he suspected that the release would slip to 2020.
In fact he also announced another, new, FSD feature, which feature is not listed as a "deliverable" milestone on the current FSD order page:
Autopark was a delivery milestone for the ancient FSD option IIRC, but it hasn't been listed for quite some time, so it probably has low amounts of deferred revenue attached.
Full Self-Driving Capability
Just two months left, and if Tesla wanted to shift this deadline, they could have quietly updated it to "early next year" amid the V10 and Smart Summon excitement, and the good Q4 order flow.- Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
- Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
- Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
- Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
- Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
- Automatic driving on city streets.
But they didn't.
Which might just mean that they forgot to update the webpage - but it might also mean that they might plan to release at least one more FSD feature in the holiday season.
There's a mysterious tweet by Elon a week ago, suggesting an FSD holiday surprise:
"Any word on when Navigate on Autopilot for street level (aka read traffic lights and signs) will be out?"
Elon Musk on Twitter:
Elon Musk on Twitter:
I'm not sure he'd be sending out confident, teasing smileys if he suspected that the release would slip to 2020.
In fact he also announced another, new, FSD feature, which feature is not listed as a "deliverable" milestone on the current FSD order page:
Elon Musk on Twitter
"We’re working on a simple initial version of Autopark. Will be safe, but sometimes park in silly places that aren’t actual parking spaces."
Would they be really working on the new "Autopark" FSD feature, if they were behind on the two major remaining FSD features which also have significant revenue recognition positives? "We’re working on a simple initial version of Autopark. Will be safe, but sometimes park in silly places that aren’t actual parking spaces."
Autopark was a delivery milestone for the ancient FSD option IIRC, but it hasn't been listed for quite some time, so it probably has low amounts of deferred revenue attached.
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Hope it's not traffic lights (with Christmas Lights everywhere).
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Is the China trade war situation looking good or not?
Trade War Update: China’s Back Is Up Against The Wall
Trade War Update: China’s Back Is Up Against The Wall
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Around 4 million painfully slow seconds to the earnings report....
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
And then, once the earnings are released, the moment we all realize that the event we were waiting for is an exercise in masochism?
Not this time. I've learned my lesson.And then, once the earnings are released, the moment we all realize that the event we were waiting for is an exercise in masochism?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Right now Gyna is winning.
USA was winning at the beginning of the trade war when it dealt immense economic damage to Gyna. But as it stands right now, the damage is leaning towards USA as Gyna reaches an internal equilibrium.
The phase 1 wins that Navarro mentions are not wins at all. If you look closer, they are things that Gyna is already moving ahead on.
The technology partner part? It's now an even bigger trap as ppl will now let go of their guard and move in. What matters in the IP theft is foreign cimpanies in Gyna using Gynese workers who can steal tech in real time.
Agriculture is not a big win. And I have big doubts about Visa and Mastercard being able to win anything in Gyna seeing as credit card is old payment tech in Gyna that nobody uses. Stripe or Square might have a better chance. But again, there's already a monopoly there. And foreign banks were in Gyna before, but retreated. So this tine is no difference. You simply cannot out compete the chinese on corruption
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Bad economics by Forbes, as usual - and they only rely on the narrative of Team Trump, which is bad journalism. Par for the course for Forbes.
Their primary argument is:
"The latest trade data shows that China’s exports to the U.S. have continued to decline. Total shipments fell 22% in September. The decline was driven by items subject to tariffs of at least 25%."
While that statement is narrowly true, the conclusion they arrive to that China is "back up against the wall" is false, because what happened is that China redirected their U.S. exports to non-tariff countries:
As you can see it from the Chinese exports data, there was a small dip in April 2019, but Chinese exports recovered after that and they are currently effectively at the same levels as in 2018. I.e. while Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped by ~22%, these Chinese trade flows were simply redirected to other countries.
(I suspect a fair chunk of these are simply intermediaries such as Korea, that minimally re-package Chinese made goods, then 'export' them as Korean originated products and the price increase from the middlemen is carried by U.S. consumers. I.e. tariff avoidance supply chain management measures by U.S. companies.)
Another Forbes gem is this "slowdown" in the Chinese "secondary industry" sector:
"That’s 5.6% growth in the third quarter versus 6.1% in the first."
"Just" 5.6% of growth, LOL.
I think that at this point the Chinese can rest assured that they could probably weather a mild trade war over 2020 just fine, and then stop the tariff nonsense with the next administration. So their tactics are to delay and force Trump's hand, who absolutely doesn't want a serious trade war in 2020, which would hurt his re-election prospects. They are also holding hurting U.S. farmers as a negotiation lever against Trump's tariffs.
Rather ridiculously none of the numerous pieces of leverage the Chinese have against Trump are even mentioned in the Forbes piece, let alone properly analyzed:
- farmers risk,
- U.S. recession risk,
- stock market crash risk,
- limited Fed rate-lowering dry powder levels risk,
- bond sell-off risk,
- Chinese currency devaluation risk.
The fact that the Chinese were playing hardball and were willing to walk away from the trade talks last week and almost did so is strong circumstantial evidence as well that they didn't feel "back up against the wall" but are negotiating from a position of power.
The rest is just Team Trump lying about the process of healing a self-inflicted wound and labeling it as the greatest, bigliest trade deal ever.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The annoying thing is that by the time TSLA investors learn this lesson Tesla might start a new era of under-promising and over-delivering.
Not advice though.
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China is active in other trade negotiations too,
"Thailand has a "good feeling" that a China-backed free trade pact for countries with nearly half the world's population will be agreed this year after years of delay, an senior Commerce Ministry official said on Friday.
Negotiators for the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are in Bangkok this week to try to finalise what could become the world's largest free trade zone with a third of global gross domestic product.
[...]
"It's a significant year, with global trade disputes and uncertainties, and nobody wants to lose out," Mrs Auramon said."
Thailand has 'good feeling' over RCEP
"Thailand has a "good feeling" that a China-backed free trade pact for countries with nearly half the world's population will be agreed this year after years of delay, an senior Commerce Ministry official said on Friday.
Negotiators for the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are in Bangkok this week to try to finalise what could become the world's largest free trade zone with a third of global gross domestic product.
[...]
"It's a significant year, with global trade disputes and uncertainties, and nobody wants to lose out," Mrs Auramon said."
Thailand has 'good feeling' over RCEP
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