Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

One short did not get the Koch Bros memo today. ..Points out GM's CFO is just as young

ElonsLostTruths‏ @ElonsTruths
I do think the CFO age thing is a little overplayed. Look at GM's CFO. I'm going to hold all judgment until I see the 8-K with the compensation package. If there is a huge cash bonus...... $TSLA
GM's new 39-year-old CFO Dhivya Suryadevara is making history

ElonsLostTruths on Twitter

 

[dc_h]

https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/2ck8auvi/dmediaset/audio



(Mod edit): Uhhh...that's what I've been on for 45 minutes. Audio only for me.

Problem solved

https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/2ck8auvi/dmediaset/video

 

[gene]

So, whats everyone's take on market action tomorrow & Friday ? @tivoboy ?

I think we will have a morning dip, maybe even into upper 280's, but then end green. Just my hunch from trading TSLA 7 years and 28 earnings reports.

 

[Yuri_G]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - December 2018

 

[jhm]

I like this a lot:

• In Q4, we recognized less than $1 million in ZEV credit sales compared to $52 million in Q3.
  
  I'm not going to name a poster as I may misremember who suggested it, but there was discussion here that Tesla has the ability to use or not use ZEV credit sales to massage any particular quarter. It looks to me as though they're saving dry powder for...the lean 1Q19 that they've been forewarning us, perhaps?
  
  
  On the other hand, would someone like to try a hand at the following? Is this "credit revenue that isn't ZEV", or is it "revenue that isn't ZEV credit"? And if the latter, does it mean that the overall sales mix was less juicy than in the prior quarter? Or something else?
  
  
  
  
• Non-GAAP Automotive gross margin decreased to 24.7% in Q4 from 25.5% in the prior quarter due to a $43 million decline in non-ZEV credit revenue and negative impact from Chinese import duties.

on edit: similar material pointed out by other posters while I was writing. No surprise.

Maybe other OEMs are selling enough gasomobiles these days to need Tesla's reg credits. /s

 

[SOULPEDL]

The note regarding lower variation in Model 3 globally finally answers my question...
"Why is the dash so symmetrical?"
ANS: Fewer parts to make right hand drive!

Duh... Imagine costs compared to a Model S regarding dash parts. Smart move! Also means they'll have all the parts to make "Backseat Drive" cars

FSD this year, gonna get some of that! Multi-level parking structures... WOW!

 

[SW2Fiddler]

So, whats everyone's take on market action tomorrow & Friday ?

@schrœdinger?

 

[JRP3]

So, whats everyone's take on market action tomorrow & Friday ? @tivoboy ?

I expect a short attack pushing the price back down tomorrow then recovery on Friday.

 

[dc_h]

Elon: Model 3 leasing probably later this year.

And lease demand in USA about 20% of demand and likely a few months of backed up demand. Nice to see how many demand levers are left.
Demand drivers:
1. Leasing
2. Standard Range
3. Enhanced auto-pilot and FSD
4. Tesla AP3 hardware
5. Right hand steering

 

[jhm]

Improving service #1 priority

Yep.

Production Hell
Delivery Hell
Service Hell

 

[ZachShahan]

Such a dick response to Colin, lol

This Colin? Insane UBS Bias On Tesla — UBS Analyst Recommended Selling $TSLA 18 Times In 2 Years, Recommended Buying $GM 35 Times In 7 Years | CleanTechnica

The one who only ever recommends selling TSLA and only ever recommends buying GM?

And his question — my goodness.

 

[Ulmo]

What did Elon say about battery pack costs the first time? $7k gearing to $4 or $5k?

Tesla's electric to ICE in-car drive train cost differential (likely referring to Model 3); guess off the top of Elon's head, currently $7k more, trending to $4 to $5k. But total cost of ownership for electric is lower. As Elon said at the beginning of the call, the major problem is that people who want Teslas just can't physically buy them because they don't have enough cash, so getting the (initial car) cost lower is important.

 

[Causalien]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - December 2018

Ahh.. I am shedding some tears. Remember a similar table from years past and tesla isn't even 1% of the EV market. I was thinking. 1% would be nice. 1% is plenty enough to make a sustainable business.

 

[EVNow]

I think we will have a morning dip, maybe even into upper 280's, but then end green. Just my hunch from trading TSLA 7 years and 28 earnings reports.

Green compared to tomorrow's open or today's close of 308 ?

After the past few ERs, when Tesla moved down after ER (5 times) - it came back to previous day's close (i.e. today's close for this quarter) within 3 to 12 days. One of those times, it didn't come back within 15 days (that I was checking).

 

[Ulmo]

Deepak retiring

Why amazed? He's done a good job, for a long while. Plenty of ability to retire.

 

[jhm]

Did everyone hear that: "no plans to switch S & X to 2170"

Translation: "we are not going to Osborne the S & X at this time"

 

[smorgasbord]

NPS? That's not in my lexicon.

NPS = Net Promoter Score

It's a measure of customer satisfaction based on whether customers actively promote/neutral/actively complain about the company. Range is from -100 to +100. Tesla has been low nineties, which was amazing. I don't know what it is today - probably still positive, but maybe not as super great as it had been.

 

[EVNow]

And lease demand in USA about 20% of demand and likely a few months of backed up demand. Nice to see how many demand levers are left.
Demand drivers:
1. Leasing
2. Standard Range
3. Enhanced auto-pilot and FSD
4. Tesla AP3 hardware
5. Right hand steering

Not fully within their control, but,
​

6. Reinstating full tax credits
7. Getting direct sales rights in more states

BTW, surprised they talked about how leasing affects GAAP profits - but didn't talk about leasing using 3rd parties.

 

[Remus]

NPS is falling. Tesla knows that, they know they have a problem. Now we know that too from Andrea James's question on Say (used to be best analyst and also the insider)
Tesla now needs to figure out why NPS is falling, and last thing we need is that they fix the wrong problem, or anyone pretending it's all well and good.

That's good, right, they noticed the problem and is taking step to fix that. What you described is a symptom, and looks like Elon is concentrated on another symptom right now. Maybe in his mind, if that part can be fully automated and tracked, the communication problem can solve itself. Maybe it's his old problem of trusting automation too much. I am sure he will realize something is wrong if the "automation" effort does not work. He is a data driven guy and is pretty good at it.

or maybe improved automation in service tracking would improve communication,

 

[Ulmo]

So... Tesla is replacing a guy with nearly 30 years of work experience and 15 years of experience in the CFO role

with a guy that's not even 32 years-old and has only worked for 3 companies? And is only 5 years out of his MBA program?

LOL

Maybe you wouldn't have trusted you at that age. I know plenty of people way past their mental prime at 32. If this guy was humble enough to understand what he didn't understand, he could have already learned everything necessary for his new role, and apparently has. His lack of corruption by having been in very few non-Tesla companies will be an asset. This isn't the East Coast where doing things the same way is better; this is an innovative company. He does have to have a solid grasp of doing arithmetic, which seems to be something that more than 1 person on the entire planet in the entire history of humanity is OK at doing.