Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

The Jan 2021 $690 TSLA calls I bought a couple of weeks ago have more than doubled in value today!

 

[Chop110]

Congratulations to everyone who chose to ride out the ER. I unfortunately deleveraged at 262 and was hoping for a swing the other way. You are all welcome. Take this as cautionary tale against attempting swing trading. Anyway, I am presently rooting for the shorts this morning so that I can get back in (280s?) and never sell again!

 

[elasalle]

2 Many Parrots on CNBC ...

 

[MFranc123]

... ouch. Congratulations, guys.

 

[dww12]

Disappointed we are struggling with 300 today

It’s an insane gift to logs with money left to buy more. After that CC, it only costs you 20% more from the going to 0 price of 250.

 

[avoigt]

If Analysts could analyze they would not be Analysts

Now all the Analysts are looking really bad are confused and looking for answers where the EPS is coming from while many including those here on that board did explain it will happen although most did not it to happen now.

 

[dww12]

Zero chance of a dividend for the next 5 years. Real change in the real world takes real dollars. It would be foolish for Tesla to redirect any profits to the shareholders before they have enough installed production capacity in batteries, solar and vehicles to meet market demand.

My point is CAN they expand that fast. You can only spend so much to where you start wasting it overpaying for stuff.

 

[LJS22]

transcript please

They asked Cathie if she was concerned for yoy decline for a “growth story” she looked like she wanted to laugh then explained how Tesla is growing in sales and manufacturing while the rest of the industry is in a decline, then broke down the numbers for them and explained the margins, then Pierre explained their battery advantage, then Cathie explained Robotaxi tech and chip and real world miles advantage, then Pierre said he’s not adding robotaxi into his evaluation but it doesn’t matter they will be producing as many vehicles as BMW in 5 years with incredible margins, while everyone still is getting rid of fuel cells.

long story short Tesla will be making money in ways no other car manufacture will be able to and things don’t have to be perfect for this to happen.

 

[StealthP3D]

Gawd the talking heads on Yahoo and CNBC are so freaking reluctant to say ANYTHING good about Tesla...without a ton of qualifiers.

Makes me ill.

It would be a pity to throw away a perfectly good job for a slip of the mouth!

 

[Chop110]

Disappointed we are struggling with 300 today

We just had a massive move up after the steady climb we have had for the last couple of weeks. I expect some profit taking/ correction to take place. Just the same, I think the trend has already been set in motion. The 300 barrier will fall bigly in the coming weeks. Not advice.

 

[woodisgood]

I didn't like that Cathie actually legitimized the "cooked books" argument by mentioning it, even if she air-quoted it.

 

[goinfraftw]

Robintrack

less then d-o-d change: 4% drop in Robinhood shareholders, ~20% increase in share price.

 

[traxila]

I know I am being greedy, but seriously...there has to be more spiking today off of short covering.

Yeah I am gambling. That is what this is about. Will be very disappointed to see price wither from here just on the basis that it went up a lot.

Look at the nonsense that happened with BYND when squeezed over there. Why is this not a similar situation?

Lemme see some margin call buying baby, come on.

 

[jeewee3000]

Ok, so feel free to laugh me out of here but what are the chances Tesla starts paying a dividend in 2020? Once FSD is real the R&D for that drops to basically 0, but it will be printing money like software (that only Tesla has). They are already making margins on cars as is with no FSD, and tax credit almost gone, and lowered prices. Solar can expand as fast as people order it since Tesla is not making the components. What exactly does Tesla have to spend money on going forward that will be more expensive than all that bank they will have? Bonus, shorts have to pay the dividend.

Not gonna happen. Every penny is invested to:
-ramp to 20 million vehicles per year
-ramp Tesla Energy
-build more battery capacity to supply the rest of the world (OEM's)
-...

 

[Mkorpal]

My point is CAN they expand that fast. You can only spend so much to where you start wasting it overpaying for stuff.

There is such a massive market out there for Tesla to expand into. I don't think they will run out of avenues to invest in anytime soon.

 

[dhrivnak]

Ok, so feel free to laugh me out of here but what are the chances Tesla starts paying a dividend in 2020? Once FSD is real the R&D for that drops to basically 0, but it will be printing money like software (that only Tesla has). They are already making margins on cars as is with no FSD, and tax credit almost gone, and lowered prices. Solar can expand as fast as people order it since Tesla is not making the components. What exactly does Tesla have to spend money on going forward that will be more expensive than all that bank they will have? Bonus, shorts have to pay the dividend.

Are you serious? Do you think Tesla is one to sit on its laurels? How about the pickup, the new Roadster, the promised 3.0 battery for the original Roadster, the gigafactory in Europe, finishing Gigafactory 1 powered by solar and finishing the SuperChargers that were planned for the end of 2018? I see more than enough needs and growth opportunities.

 

[StealthP3D]

If Analysts could analyze they would not be Analysts

Now all the Analysts are looking really bad are confused and looking for answers where the EPS is coming from while many including those here on that board did explain it will happen although most did not it to happen now.

I think I agree with you but...is that a Google translation from German to English?

 

[goinfraftw]

This is one awesome report that's super dense by the UN.

Investment in Renewal Energy

• Total investment in renewable energy worldwide, including early-stage and corporate-level funding as well as the financing of new capacity, was $288.3 billion in 2018. This was 11% down on 2017’s record $325 billion.
• The fall was entirely due to the decline in investment in new capacity, as discussed in Chapter 1. The main causes of this were lower equipment costs globally, and China’s switch to a more restrictive allocation of feed-in tariffs for solar projects.
• Non-capacity types of investment all rose in 2018. Corporate research and development was up 12% at $7.6 billion, and government R&D 8% higher at $5.5 billion. Equity raising by specialist renewable energy companies on public markets increased 6% to $6 billion.
• Venture capital and private equity investment in renewables businesses jumped 35% to $2 billion last year, but remained far below the peak figures recorded around the turn of the decade.

View attachment 451681

With Paris Climate Accord starting in 2020 (and signed in 2015...when Tesla flatline in growth alongside financing for renewables), that'll add a minimum of $100B of additional financing. That means we'll be going from -11% to ~+35% growth rate in financing for green (at a min).

View attachment 451683

...there's a lot in this report. Recommend everyone read through it.

I'm going to leave this here when it comes to 20M cars number that Elon put out there yesterday. $100B more every year for 5 years starting next year to a market that is flat-lined worldwide investment growth for years and will be going to ~35% growth y-o-y.

That report outlines Tesla as ...no. 2 in the world as an investable company working to deal with Climate Change. Wonder just how much of those investable assets will go to Tesla for Gigafactories and other avenues of growth...and how quickly.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ford is down 6.3%..

Oh, Anton, that's gotta hurt, eh?

It's like the "double-whammy" to your portfolio!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I would be surprised if Tesla answered any new questions in a post-conference call private call with an analyst. Technically, there is nothing wrong with an analyst calling up Tesla after the earnings call and say "I didn't understand your answer on topic X" and Tesla can explain it again but they are not technically allowed to say anything new (that is material). Personally, it would surprise me if Tesla would even take the call.

We have discovered on this forum that after every public earnings call, analysts are given time to have private time with Tesla executives to “clarify” their Q&A.