Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[electracity]

Ok, so feel free to laugh me out of here but what are the chances Tesla starts paying a dividend in 2020? Once FSD is real the R&D for that drops to basically 0, but it will be printing money like software (that only Tesla has). They are already making margins on cars as is with no FSD, and tax credit almost gone, and lowered prices. Solar can expand as fast as people order it since Tesla is not making the components. What exactly does Tesla have to spend money on going forward that will be more expensive than all that bank they will have? Bonus, shorts have to pay the dividend.

Musk will always have more ideas than the capital to make those ideas happen. Companies pay dividends when they more cash than ideas with a good ROI. Apple can't come up with enough big ideas that support rational investment.

Traditional car companies now wish they could stop dividends and invest in the new technologies. But they can't.

 

[Nocturnal]

SP reaction aside, I'm more bullish now based on MY, China, and solar growth. I know not everyone here is on the same page in terms of climate change, but most of the world is or is at least coming around. In the next few years I expect some serious policy changes that will provide a major tailwind to Tesla. The PGE nonsense is just a taste of that and will undoubtedly push more people to solar/battery.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

With the stock showing momentum into 3Q earnings Wednesday, I am taking profits and putting on a hedge.
...

SOLD 300 shrs TSLA @258.50
and
SOLD 3 TSLA 191025 250 Puts @ $7.50

BUY to close 3 TSLA 191025 250 Puts @ $.05
Profit +$2,235

and

SELL to open 3 TSLA 191025 285 PUTs @$2.50

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I know I am being greedy, but seriously...there has to be more spiking today off of short covering.

Yeah I am gambling. That is what this is about. Will be very disappointed to see price wither from here just on the basis that it went up a lot.

Look at the nonsense that happened with BYND when squeezed over there. Why is this not a similar situation?

Lemme see some margin call buying baby, come on.

It's not Friday yet

 

[StealthP3D]

I know I am being greedy, but seriously...there has to be more spiking today off of short covering.

Yeah I am gambling. That is what this is about. Will be very disappointed to see price wither from here just on the basis that it went up a lot.

The share price is not going to "wither from here". TSLA is fundamentally a MUCH better company today than it was yesterday, speaking only in terms of what the world knows about it. Because, of course, it's the same company (well, minus one day change). But the share price can only react to what the world actually knows.

The share price might dip into the $280's (but it would likely be very brief). Or it might not. But watch where it is in the very near future. It will be trading solidly in the $300's. The weakness in the current price is simply human weakness, emotions, fear, uncertainty, doubt and short-term greed. New investors can be reluctant to pile on until things stabilize after a gap up like this. But the overall trend is strongly bullish once things settle down.

 

[EVMeister]

I can't help feeling like some big buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the stock price to appear to "bottom out".

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Is there a call or twitter feed for the solar conference?

 

[Nocturnal]

My 305-380 calls ranging from 10/25 to 12/20 are actually green. Wow, I might make money on some super cheap options for once?

 

[humbaba]

Last year? All quarters profitable going forward? When he said small loss in Q1? what are you talking about?

that he said this year, you are talking about last year. But anyway that's history. So guys hold your shares let's squeeze some shorts.

Yes, he said it last year. And he said it again this year. Of course, certain parties have a tendency to "forget" that he puts in the qualifier and say he claimed "profitable in every quarter" but they have an agenda to push.

I know I am being greedy, but seriously...there has to be more spiking today off of short covering.

Yeah I am gambling. That is what this is about. Will be very disappointed to see price wither from here just on the basis that it went up a lot.

Look at the nonsense that happened with BYND when squeezed over there. Why is this not a similar situation?

Lemme see some margin call buying baby, come on.

No margin call squeeze. Retail shorts aren't going to represent enough of the short interest to make any real difference. Large shorts don't get margin called because they have enough value in other positions that the brokers let it slide. Any oil-backed short interest will have money added for the increased margin. Of course, a large short or oil-backed activity may elect to call it quits and cover, but they are not going to be forced into it.

 

[dww12]

Are you serious? Do you think Tesla is one to sit on its laurels? How about the pickup, the new Roadster, the promised 3.0 battery for the original Roadster, the gigafactory in Europe, finishing Gigafactory 1 powered by solar and finishing the SuperChargers that were planned for the end of 2018? I see more than enough needs and growth opportunities.

No, I’m not (thinking Tesla is going to sit on it’s laurels). I am saying I think they can make more than they will spend doing those things, like they are RIGHT NOW. Only it’s going to get worse (more cash in the bank). 1. Solar is going to make a TON, it costs Tesla very little and the have no real competitors (they all have to spend a ton on marketing like SC had to do, and they have no battery solution (hello PG&E customer)). 2. FSD will be purchased on ALL cars and it will cost more, yet be almost 0$ for Tesla. Throwing more $ at the Truck or the Semi won’t make it go that much faster. GF3 is a success because it was done cheap and fast. Elon will not overspend again, so there is going to be a ton of $ in the bank.

 

[larmor]

Plenty of rational profit taking around 300 without the need for invoking sinister forces.

I don't see any reason Tesla will settle in below 300. They have turned a corner with surprising ease and 5 billion in the bank. It's a much lower risk company in 2020 but with plenty of upside.

Musk not needing to sleep in the Shanghai factory is real progress.

Not sleeping the factory is one of the most telling signs from yesterday, they figured out how to build a factory and get it running in 10 months. They kept saying how there is additional speed-capacity to be extracted from GF3, and this process will be repeated for other GF to alleviate the distribution issues. So here is the growth story all laid out, and TE packs will compete with cars for total output and resources, and presumably have a higher GM.

 

[EVDRVN]

There is such a massive market out there for Tesla to expand into. I don't think they will run out of avenues to invest in anytime soon.

Body shops and paint manufacturing would be good areas.

 

[davecolene0606]

Yeah, isn't it funny that if Tesla had missed profitability by a single dollar they would have had Chanos and the rest lined up to show how the company was falling off a cliff. Instead...

...crickets.

Dan

Crickets is a positive trend in CNBC coverage.

Fire Away!

 

[Nocturnal]

The share price is not going to "wither from here". TSLA is fundamentally a MUCH better company today than it was yesterday, speaking only in terms of what the world knows about it. Because, of course, it's the same company (well, minus one day change). But the share price can only react to what the world actually knows.

The share price might dip into the $280's (but it would likely be very brief). Or it might not. But watch where it is in the very near future. It will be trading solidly in the $300's. The weakness in the current price is simply human weakness, emotions, fear, uncertainty, doubt and short-term greed. New investors can be reluctant to pile on until things stabilize after a gap up like this. But the overall trend is strongly bullish once things settle down.

I sold about 20% of my holdings at 260 anticipating a post call drop. I bought back in half of that this morning at 298. Holding the rest in case of a small dip but I don't think it's likely that we will see deep 200s any time soon.

 

[AlexS]

can someone pull a daily trading chart from 5/8/2013 and 5/9/2013?

 

[larmor]

Yes, he said it last year. And he said it again this year. Of course, certain parties have a tendency to "forget" that he puts in the qualifier and say he claimed "profitable in every quarter" but they have an agenda to push.



No margin call squeeze. Retail shorts aren't going to represent enough of the short interest to make any real difference. Large shorts don't get margin called because they have enough value in other positions that the brokers let it slide. Any oil-backed short interest will have money added for the increased margin. Of course, a large short or oil-backed activity may elect to call it quits and cover, but they are not going to be forced into it.

Oil backed short interest is protecting a trillion dollar market cap and tesla represents the aspiration of future cars and hence future oil revenue. So oil backed short interest could theoretically sink tesla to protect their market, so it remains important to get as many cars out to consumers so that a tipping point or inflection might come about where a percentage of consumers just do not need gas. Thankfully still need electricity to charge other devices, so EVs aren't going anywhere. Added to this is PG&E planned outages will force new home construction in California to include home battery backup. So continued thank you to PG&E and of course porsche who singlehandedly gave tesla the stamp of legitimacy with their lower range over priced toycan.

 

[electracity]

Body shops and paint manufacturing would be good areas.

Why? Tesla has succeeded because of superiority of product and strategy, not process.

 

[humbaba]

AFAICT the largest trading day of the last five years was ~33M shares last September. I realize volume normally tapers off, but not even 90 minutes of trading is already about half that.

@AlexS I see you asked a related question while I was looking. I only ran last five years using Market Watch but it has a 10 year, then I changed frequency to daily.

edit: ~37M, May 14, 2013
edit2: and the stock never got that low again ($83 if I'm reading it right). However, that wasn't the case after last year's high volume as the price was hammered down to ~60%

 

[Vines]

We have sold so many Powerwalls in the last 2 weeks. Many customers buying 3-5 of them. Some customers buying 18 of them, because they are ballers like that.

With power outages here, its going to become a luxury that all the very affluent homes will have or want to have very soon.

Energy is going to be huge over the next few years, exciting! Thanks for the free marketing PG&E!

 

[EVDRVN]

Why? Tesla has succeeded because of superiority of product and strategy, not process.

I guess you did not get the sarcasm.