Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

The SP jumped because the company turned a profit from improved margins that no one expected. However, with a run rate of $1B profit and 50-100% growth, Tesla could easily command a much higher PE ratio.

That doesn't even take into account the new product lines, solar, power, batteries, listing on SP500, FSD, etc. The $330 SP today is still the chance to pick up shares at a steep discount for anyone who hasn't invested enough.

Forget about PE ratios for a fast growth company like Tesla. Price-to-sales and growth of FCF are much more apropos.

 

[GOVA]

There's something IMHO weird about Rivian.

Why don't they ever seem to be doing anything?

....

I don't get it. What on Earth have these people been doing? Are they actually serious about production?

Good point. I think this is some sort of smoke screen for something/somebody. Hard to see who exactly.

 

[mongo]

So, isn't this a reason why we should expect solar roof tile deals with California homebuilders. Seems like a no-brainer in new construction.

Indeed.
Solar + shingles in the time it takes to put on a composite shingle roof (or less). Especially in developments with multiple of the same roof setup. For about the same cost as shingles plus roof. And you end up with a more durable result.
What's not to like?

 

[Singuy]

So, isn't this a reason why we should expect solar roof tile deals with California homebuilders. Seems like a no-brainer in new construction.

My guess that a deal wasn't announced was two fold.

1. Production limitation prevents large builders from signing on. A surge of people who now goes to Taylor Morrison and ask them about Tesla Roof will end up disappointed. Until Tesla can provide a 3-5k/week run rate, I don't think any company would sign on.

2. Wait and see...it's still a very new product so builders want to see if people are actively requesting these roofs..and how people with v3s fair. This product is at the very early adopter phase, not really for prime time.

 

[Hock1]

I stick with my original statement: the only way that the ramp in solar roof tiles can happen is with existing large-scale homebuilders. A house here and a house there with Tesla-trained roofers is not going to cut it. We'll see.

If a deal with a homebuilder is reached, it will not be a situation where the solar roof is offered as an alternative. It will be the way the house is constructed and offered. If Elon is right (that a solar energy equipped house is, on average, worth $4.1K more), then the roof tiles will, inherently, add value as a matter of course.

 

[Unpilot]

There's something IMHO weird about Rivian.

Why don't they ever seem to be doing anything?

They're a company with billions of dollars in cash, and yet look at that place - it's like a ghost town. They've had the factory for two whole years - much of one year while they've been stuffed to the gills with cash - but they're not expected to complete demo work until the end of this year?

But then suddenly they're supposed to tool for mass production in half a year?

Look at what GF3 has looked like all past year, a constant hive of activity, inside and out. Even when you couldn't see the inside, there was a constant stream of cars and delivery vehicles coming and going, people swarming everywhere. Rivian? You expect to see tumbleweeds blowing by.

Check them out on satellite. I know the imagery isn't realtime (all we know is that it's from 2019), but still:

Google Maps

Barren. Still with a joke left by the previous occupants sitting outside:

View attachment 470346

Seriously, you've had this place for two years and you haven't even taken the time to remove that?

I don't get it. What on Earth have these people been doing? Are they actually serious about production?

There was literally one car in the parking lot. We drove around the whole place....it's a big factory.
Looks abandoned to me.

 

[mongo]

My guess that a deal wasn't announced was two fold.

1. Production limitation prevents large builders from signing on. A surge of people who now goes to Taylor Morrison and ask them about Tesla Roof will end up disappointed. Until Tesla can provide a 3-5k/week run rate, I don't think any company would sign on.

2. Wait and see...it's still a very new product so builders want to see if people are actively requesting these roofs..and how people with v3s fair. This product is at the very early adopter phase, not really for prime time.

If we are talking new subdivisions and not fully custom builds:

1. I don't know California builders, but one of the larger Michigan ones builds less than 500 houses per week.
2. J Q Public isn't going to know about solar options. Builder will use some default option on spec homes and give buyers a couple options for semi-custom. Tesla could be the supplier of both. Roof A with solar shingle or roof B with shingles and then panels on top. Plus Powerwall upgrade.

I stick with my original statement: the only way that the ramp in solar roof tiles can happen is with existing large-scale homebuilders. A house here and a house there with Tesla-trained roofers is not going to cut it. We'll see.

New construction is great, but not critical.
They said they are in 25 states. If they can do a roof in a day, it only takes 8 crews per state to hit 1,000 roofs a week (more crews realistically due to weather and such). Then they add train 3rd party roofers and expand to the entire reroof market. Say 75 million single family houses in US with 20 year roof life, that is a 3.75 million house per year market or 75,000 per week.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Ross Gerber on Twitter

"I was thinking about when I met Jerome Guillen in March. He told me how he was going to drive cost efficieny, increase production & quality of M3 production. He helped save $tsla last year setting up the production line in 17 days. Thanks for the incredible effort JG! @elonmusk"

 

[Singer3000]

I stick with my original statement: the only way that the ramp in solar roof tiles can happen is with existing large-scale homebuilders. A house here and a house there with Tesla-trained roofers is not going to cut it. We'll see.

If a deal with a homebuilder is reached, it will not be a situation where the solar roof is offered as an alternative. It will be the way the house is constructed and offered. If Elon is right (that a solar energy equipped house is, on average, worth $4.1K more), then the roof tiles will, inherently, add value as a matter of course.

The indicated price pre incentives is $42.5k. What proportion of this would be installation costs versus the tile costs themselves?

There are some fairly misleading calculations out there about the revenue potential for Tesla, unless you believe that despite what they said on the call, Tesla intends to in-source installation for 10-20k units per week. What will the gross margin be for tiles sold in bulk to big house builders and at what ASP?

When my roof was replaced, a team of about 10 manual labourers did the whole thing in one day. For a solar roof installation team, what would be the ratio of manual labourers to more expensive certified electricians?

Lots of questions still to be answered about Tesla Roof before we can expect the market to give it the valuation that many here want.

 

[AlMc]

Ross Gerber on Twitter

"I was thinking about when I met Jerome Guillen in March. He told me how he was going to drive cost efficieny, increase production & quality of M3 production. He helped save $tsla last year setting up the production line in 17 days. Thanks for the incredible effort JG! @elonmusk"

I have said it before......Jerome makes the train run on time at Tesla. If he leaves, I am out of TSLA.

 

[mongo]

When my roof was replaced, a team of about 10 manual labourers did the whole thing in one day. For a solar roof installation team, what would be the ratio of manual labourers to more expensive certified electricians?

Based on recent photos, the tiles attach electrically with standard type screw together connectors. So you would only need one electrical person on site to install the inverters, power panels, and such.

 

[Dutchie]

Just realized that I am on the TwItter's TSLAQ block list too. I am not very active on Twitter. Some retweet and an occasional reaction. Cann't remember ever having a conversation with one of the TSLAQ members. But still BLOCKED.
Somehow makes me proud to be on the list.

 

[Singer3000]

Based on recent photos, the tiles attach electrically with standard type screw together connectors. So you would only need one electrical person on site to install the inverters, power panels, and such.

Good if true but we are only surmising. Bit of a missed opportunity that the event made no attempt to address investor questions.

Bearing in mind the backlog of demand can’t be satisfied for ages, I’m not really sure who the call on Friday was aimed at.

 

[SpaceCash]

It isn't completely over yet, but I think it could be close. There will always be shorts for any high profile stock, but the days ofTSLAQ as a newsworthy entity in its own right are numbered.

What is nice is that it didn't happen through a long steady rise in the stock giving the shorts a chance to back out on their own terms, but a sudden surge.

It's very much not over yet, we still need to squeeze quite a bit.

 

[StealthP3D]

There's something IMHO weird about Rivian.

Why don't they ever seem to be doing anything?

I don't get it. What on Earth have these people been doing? Are they actually serious about production?

You might be onto something there. But keep in mind they do have four main locations and that is just the production plant they bought from Mitsubishi. I think it already has the heating & A/C, electrical plumbing, robots, conveyors, paint shop etc. already installed. They probably build their prototypes at one of their other facilities.

Hopefully, they start gearing up the Normal, IL manufacturing plant within the next few months! I'm not ready to go all "$RIVIQ" just yet!

 

[M3Rider]

If Tesla can do install as fast as comp. for the same price as comp + solar it’s going to dwarf auto very quickly.

It's not exactly the same price.
We recently replaced roof for like $24k, although about $2.5-3k was not roof related (tear off / put back on solar panels, gutters etc.)
Say $21k. Panels were about $14k, but I believe per latest prices are about $11k.
So, 21+11=$32k

I checked solar roof estimate for my address and it says large size = $53.5k. Although stated power is 10kwh, which is double of my panels, so, it'd be equivalent to 32k+11k=$43k.
It is pretty close though.

The interesting part is hail damage. If those tiles are indeed 3 times stronger than composite and you don't have to worry about replacing roof due to hail, it becomes a more attractive deal IMO.

 

[StealthP3D]

So, isn't this a reason why we should expect solar roof tile deals with California homebuilders. Seems like a no-brainer in new construction.

Yeah, if I was a home builder, I would put a Tesla solar roof on every house and a Tesla wall connector in every garage. The HPWC would only add about $800 to the cost and it sounds like the solar roof has cost parity with other quality roofs. I would do this just for profitability reasons. Even people that didn't have a Tesla would buy my houses just so they were ready and could buy a Tesla next year.

I would also put a 50 amp outlet in the garage. But I don't buy the argument that a Tesla wall connector is too limiting because it locks you into Teslas. Does anyone really think there will be any truly mainstream competitive EV's in the next 5 years from any other manufacturer? No, I didn't think so. Tesla will be building batteries and cars in such volume that no one else will be able to compete. I wish this were not so but I just don't see anyone having what it takes to keep the price competitive.

 

[Remus]

I put on my snorkel earlier and dived into the TSLAQ swamp. They’ve already stopped talking about Q3, though I guess they’ll find some minor number to blow up in the 10Q.

No what they’re doing now is poring line by line over the couple of thousand pages of deposition statements of Elon and other Tesla execs regarding the Solarcity class action.

“Solar Roof was a fraud product!” is the latest rallying cry. Hmm....

To those hoping TSLAQ will go away soon, you misunderstand the game. Few of the high profile shorts believe in Tesla’s demise. It’s all about sucking in retail shorts to buy puts from you at bankruptcy type strike prices and then using the same FUD to try and make your more moderate short positions profitable.

I have to assume that many of the agents in media are being used in proxy without understanding how they’re being used. Such agents turn a blind eye because they know that Tesla = Clicks and they know that a sensationalist disaster story gets more clicks than “Company X today reported solid progress in improving cost efficiency and meeting its growth targets”.

This game has a lot further to run. Which means that on a long term fundamental basis, Tesla is highly likely to stay undervalued for a while yet.

It would be a huge disappoinment if shorts just covered and left. Let them pile on, they deserve to lose it all for hindering the effort to fight climate change. In my opinion they should be prosecuted and put into jail.

 

[PhaseWhite]

It feels like the end of an era. The battle is over, the shorts lost like they were always going to.

Now Tesla is untouchable by FUD, China is coming online, Tesla energy ramping, cash in the bank... no more discounted chances to pick up shares. No more quirky Elon tweets, no more surprises.

In victory I feel empty.

The war has not been won, It's not even close to over...

 

[EVNow]

I think they are confident of a working RoboTaxi solution soon.,

I consider RoboTaxi a black swan. Nobody - I mean literally nobody in the industry - expects Tesla to be ready for L4 Robotaxi anytime soon. It may change when City NOA comes out - but we should just consider it an upside whenever it happens.