Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

No more speculation about truck battery, range, features and design beyond this point. When the truck is officially launched next month mods may temporarily be more lenient. Until then there are plenty of dedicated truck threads to take these discussions to.

Yeah, but the conversations over there about the upcoming Pickup are WHACK! The conversations here are more intellectual and informative. Hence the reason why everything under the sun gets posted here.

 

[Mokuzai]

If people from Consumer Reports look at the survey results, they would say "driving fun got 100 points, paint got zero, so average them out, Tesla gets 50 out of 100."

More like: If consumer reports were looking at the results they would say “driving fun got 100 points, paint got 75 so overall score is 50.”

 

[jerry33]

I guess you haven't seen the Model S 100D doing 669.8 miles/ 1078 km on a single charge at speed of 25 mph.

There's a difference between steady state and stop and go in traffic.

 

[larmor]

Yeah, but the conversations over there about the upcoming Pickup are WHACK! The conversations here are more intellectual and informative. Hence the reason why everything under the sun gets posted here.

Also even CNBC mentioned the pickup reveal several weeks ago and will definitely be a major announcement that the financial sector and analysts are keenly waiting for-- the narrative for remaining us auto manufacturers centers on pickup trucks.

 

[TradingInvest]

In the modern world if you do not know the difference between anecdotes and statistics you are extremely easy to manipulate and frankly you are likely to have a much more limited level of free will in your actions. Almost everything physically possible (given our current technology) is likely to happen somewhere in the world at sometime.

Most members of TSLAQ that are not knowing and deliberate short and distort fraudsters have been manipulated into joining the cult because of their ignorance over this.

I think this is also the key reason many journalists have been drawn into supporting the TSLAQ cause. Many of them honestly do not know that most misinformation is from taking anecdotes out of their statistical context and hence forming a false impression/narrative. Fake news can be true and yet still highly misleading. I don't think this ignorance is an excuse for said journalists however. Journalists have an incredibly high level of responsibility given the position of power they have been given to educate the population. To not bother to learn what stories are useful statistically relevant news and what are pure entertainment or misinformation is unforgivably negligent.

Totally agree with the first part.

For the second part, I firmly believe journalists can't make a living by the traditional way. Media simply can't make enough money by selling newspapers. Most people don't buy newspapers. Most people don't subscribe to online news websites either, because people can get free news with a few key clicks. Online ads don't work, people either install ads blockers or ignore ads. Only Facebook and Google are getting the lions share of online ads money.

That begs the question, how do media make money? I think they take money from whoever is willing to pay. Then they will do the dirty work for them. This is the sad reality. VW, GM, short hedge funds, and oil companies spend so much money on marketing and PR campaign. That's where Media is getting money.

Remember Bloomberg gave writers extra bonus if their story can move the stock. Why do they do that? If you can't answer this question, you should consider getting out of the investment game.

 

[Bobfitz1]

g

The pickup announcement will have a much bigger effect post Q3 earnings than it would have had when the narrative was "the more vehicles Tesla makes, the more money they lose". Combined with other announcements/developments, it could be huge. On its own, not so much.

Thanks, that sounds logical to me. It's not improbable that we might see 2 other developments close to the truck reveal. The GF4 location announcement and pictures of trucks leaving GF3 with loads of M3. That should give me SP another boost sufficient to trigger more short covering.

 

[StealthP3D]

The survey Randall did is pretty good. The results are what I have expected.

If people from Consumer Reports look at the survey results, they would say "driving fun got 100 points, paint got zero, so average them out, Tesla gets 50 out of 100."

If this is not ridiculous, I don't know what is. In reality, I can enjoy driving fun for the next 200k miles. That little paint blemish? who cares. I wouldn't notice it once I get some road dust on the car. By the way, my car didn't have any paint issues.

Neither of our two Model 3's had paint issues at all (both Pearl White). What strikes me is the paint on Tesla's is actually an asset, at least the multi-coat colors. It's absolutely gorgeous! Without looking disco. Just beautiful color with depth. After beating them up for 1 year and 1 1/2 year on graveled roads, sand, slush and road tar, they clean up beautifully. Of course, there are tiny rock chips, never had a car that didn't get those, especially on the front plastic. It's no worse on the Model 3 than any of our other nice cars we've had. Chips are unavoidable on the grimy, rural wet and slushy roads we drive on. But step back 5 feet and they both still glisten like new.

And, yes, it's all about the way the Model 3 drives, something people who have never driven one don't understand. I might appreciate this more than most because I'm rarely driving in city traffic, it's all me, the car and the road, curves, dips, rises and all. Ready to dodge deer, rocks, big puddles and the occasional downed tree limb. The corner grip, the smoothness, the instant AWD power and overall responsiveness is a game-changer. Yes, it doesn't have a gear shifter and I like that. It doesn't prevent it from being a true driver's car. A stick-shift is only a necessity on a true driver's car if the car needs a stick-shift. Previous "driver's cars" needed a stick-shift because the alternative was a slushy, imprecise A/T that reduced the connectedness to the road. The Model 3 doesn't need a stick and it's even more of a "driver's car" because of it. Anyone who doesn't get that is simply stuck in the past of what it means to truely drive. The less that comes between you, your perceptions and the road, the better.

 

[jerry33]

I simply don't understand why people do trade-ins. You almost always get a much better deal selling the car yourself. Is it really worth it to people to throw thousands of dollars away for the convenience factor?

1. Convenience.
2. Risk. There is always a risk associated with private selling. Not just money, but if title isn't transferred and there is an accident..
3. Time. If you have a job where you are on-call, it is often hard to find the time to do the steps necessary to minimize the risk.
4. Location. you may not be in an area where there are potential buyers.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Neither of our two Model 3's had paint issues at all (both Pearl White). What strikes me is the paint on Tesla's is actually an asset, at least the multi-coat colors. It's absolutely gorgeous! Without looking disco. Just beautiful color with depth. After beating them up for 1 year and 1 1/2 year on graveled roads, sand, slush and road tar, they clean up beautifully. Of course, there are tiny rock chips, never had a car that didn't get those, especially on the front plastic. It's no worse on the Model 3 than any of our other nice cars we've had. Chips are unavoidable on the grimy, rural wet and slushy roads we drive on. But step back 5 feet and they both still glisten like new.

And, yes, it's all about the way the Model 3 drives, something people who have never driven one don't understand. I might appreciate this more than most because I'm rarely driving in city traffic, it's all me, the car and the road, curves, dips, rises and all. Ready to dodge deer, rocks, big puddles and the occasional downed tree limb. The corner grip, the smoothness, the instant AWD power and overall responsiveness is a game-changer. Yes, it doesn't have a gear shifter and I like that. It doesn't prevent it from being a true driver's car. A stick-shift is only a necessity on a true driver's car if the car needs a stick-shift. Previous "driver's cars" needed a stick-shift because the alternative was a slushy, imprecise A/T that reduuced the connectedness to the road. The Model 3 doesn't need a stick and it's even more of a "driver's car" because of it. Anyone who doesn't get that is simply stuck in the past of what it means to truely drive. The less that comes between you, your perceptions and the road, the better.

Paint Protection Film (PPF) is your friend.

 

[StealthP3D]

Totally agree with the first part.

For the second part, I firmly believe journalists can't make a living by the traditional way. Media simply can't make enough money by selling newspapers. Most people don't buy newspapers. Most people don't subscribe to online news websites either, because people can get free news with a few key clicks. Online ads don't work, people either install ads blockers or ignore ads. Only Facebook and Google are getting the lions share of online ads money.

That begs the question, how do media make money? I think they take money from whoever is willing to pay. Then they will do the dirty work for them. This is the sad reality. VW, GM, short hedge funds, and oil companies spend so much money on marketing and PR campaign. That's where Media is getting money.

Remember Bloomberg gave writers extra bonus if their story can move the stock. Why do they do that? If you can't answer this question, you should consider getting out of the investment game.

Over the last two decades, we have seen consolidation in the MSM. The people who were buying realized the value was not in the sales, it was in having control of what their viewers thought and knew. They were not buying profits, they were buying something more valuable, the ability to bend and warp what people believed in.

The result is what we have today.

 

[Curt Renz]

Headline:

Tesla filing shows U.S. sales tumbled 39% in third quarter

vs Article:

Tesla Inc’s third-quarter revenue tumbled 39% in the United States, its first drop in more than two years, but sales in China and other regions surged, the electric car maker’s break down of sales by geography showed on Tuesday.



The real headline is:

Don't Trade On Headlines

Unfortunately for the algobots (and some humans), their reading comprehension is not up to the level you might hope. It is usually a copy editor and not an article's author who writes the headline. Their purpose is to quickly grab eyes and clicks with brief sensationalism. That is normally not such a great problem in the general news, but it can be in the financial news, if it rapidly results in poor investment decisions.

 

[Nocturnal]

Unfortunately for the algobots, their reading comprehension is not up to the level you might hope. It is usually a copy editor and not an article's author who writes the headline. Their purpose is to quickly grab eyes and clicks with brief sensationalism. That is normally not such a great problem in the general news, but it can be in the financial news if it rapidly results in poor investment decisions.

I started to say that this means the bots are poorly programmed, but considering humans only read headlines they are probably designed perfectly. ​

The corner grip, the smoothness, the instant AWD power and overall responsiveness is a game-changer. Yes, it doesn't have a gear shifter and I like that. It doesn't prevent it from being a true driver's car. A stick-shift is only a necessity on a true driver's car if the car needs a stick-shift. Previous "driver's cars" needed a stick-shift because the alternative was a slushy, imprecise A/T that reduced the connectedness to the road. The Model 3 doesn't need a stick and it's even more of a "driver's car" because of it. Anyone who doesn't get that is simply stuck in the past of what it means to truely drive. The less that comes between you, your perceptions and the road, the better.

+1 The benefit of a manual is to be able to quickly move into the power band you want. No need in an EV. Time between reaction to application of power is far quicker in a Model 3 than even the fastest manual driver. Sure manuals are fun, but we they are antiquated.

 

[StealthP3D]

Paint Protection Film (PPF) is your friend.

Not worried about it. never had a problem in the past and we keep our cars a long time.

PPF is expensive which makes me wonder what people use to protect the PPF.

I just wax our Model 3's a few times a year and they both look beautiful. It makes no sense to protect a $2500 paint job with $2500 worth of plastic. The paint is more durable than the plastic!

 

[jerry33]

Neither of our two Model 3's had paint issues at all (both Pearl White). What strikes me is the paint on Tesla's is actually an asset, at least the multi-coat colors.

My opinion is that the "non-oil based paint is inferior" is not correct. In the decades that I've been driving, the cars that had the most "paint problems" (meaning rock chips and such), were the aerodynamic cars. The cars that were basically square had few or no rock chips. You wouldn't think that to be the case based on the difference in mass between rocks and air, but it happens. It might be that the square cars just have all the chips in one small area so it's not noticeable. Problems such as orange peel have been happening on cars forever.

 

[Sean Wagner]

And, yes, it's all about the way the Model 3 drives, something people who have never driven one don't understand.

Funny how I found the following post on the reddit thread about the Bloomberg survey I wanted to share, quote:

Iloveturbocars_22
17 points
I wasn't a "fan". I dumped my Golf R for a model 3 fully expecting to give up all the fun of my R. I was dead wrong. The experience completely changed the way I view performance cars.

Unquote. It's still useful and instructive to peek into the "classic" car world mindset, I think.

The less that comes between you, your perceptions and the road, the better.

I still think Tesla might usefully poach a couple of expert engineers to fine tune the Model 3 P's handling precision.
.

simply stuck in the past of what it means to truely drive.

Not always! In truth, I haven't done any real driving in aeons now, and that's not altogether bad. I know that edge needs to be kept sharp - and illusions might lead to unpalatable consequences.

 

[jerry33]

Not worried about it. never had a problem in the past and we keep our cars a long time.

PPF is expensive which makes me wonder what people use to protect the PPF.

I just wax our Model 3's a few times a year and they both look beautiful. It makes no sense to protect a $2500 paint job with $2500 worth of plastic.

Depending upon where you drive, it can save a lot of repainting (or angst). Although I try to park carefully, there are times when some other car rubs against mine and leaves some paint. With PPF, a bit of bug and tar remover makes it disappear. Now mine is an S, so the cost of PPF is small compared to the cost of the car. I probably would not do it with a 3.

 

[Alphacrux]

Not worried about it. never had a problem in the past and we keep our cars a long time.

PPF is expensive which makes me wonder what people use to protect the PPF.

I just wax our Model 3's a few times a year and they both look beautiful. It makes no sense to protect a $2500 paint job with $2500 worth of plastic. The paint is more durable than the plastic!

PPF seems to have helped prevent paint chips on the hood. My 2015 S (blue) didn't have PPF and had alot of underlying white paint chips, so I had to sell it and buy another

I haven't seen any chipping yet on the 2019 S (blue) replacement with PPF on the hood and front end.

 

[ggies07]

WTF guys? Where's the ATH mark!?! why -$10?

 

[Dutchie]

Yeah, but the conversations over there about the upcoming Pickup are WHACK! The conversations here are more intellectual and informative. Hence the reason why everything under the sun gets posted here.

I hear you. About 90% of my time on TMC is on this thread. This is the thread with most information and more knowledgable contributors.

 

[LJS22]

The sell downgrade and 39% drop in US sales is right on time. Musk said the FUD was about to get unbearable. But what’s happening is really sad. More people are going to get caught up in the short side of the stock, meanwhile the big shorts were blindsided by the Q3 report and now need to bring down the stock so they can close their position respectfully.
What the smart shorts and smart longs know is that Q4 is going to be overwhelmingly good. So I expect the next couple months to be strange, as long as we stay above $300 going into Q4 numbers then it’s a wrap.