Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sancho]

I too remain open-minded about the causes of the various big swings in selling volume. Leading into the ER, there was substantial buying many times when the stock made an upward move. Investors were jumpy about missing out on a run up. Perhaps we're seeing some jumpiness toward downward moves because so often profit-taking follows a big run-up such as we had. Let's see what Tuesday's trading chart suggests.

Right. And not to belabor the point, but when the SP is going up and then keeps bouncing around some resistance level we often call it manipulative capping, while when the SP is going down and then keeps bouncing against support, we just call that buying appetite.

There might not be that much difference between bears and bulls, except that some percentage of the bears also trash talk in a manner that seems delusional at best, or outright manipulative.

 

[Hock1]

1. Convenience.
2. Risk. There is always a risk associated with private selling. Not just money, but if title isn't transferred and there is an accident..
3. Time. If you have a job where you are on-call, it is often hard to find the time to do the steps necessary to minimize the risk.
4. Location. you may not be in an area where there are potential buyers.

Also, in Florida, and I assume many other states, If you trade a car in, the sales tax due is the difference between the trade-in credit and the sales price of the new car. If you sell privately, the sales tax due is on the full sales price of the new car.

 

[humbaba]

I started to say that this means the bots are poorly programmed, but considering humans only read headlines they are probably designed perfectly. ​

+1 The benefit of a manual is to be able to quickly move into the power band you want. No need in an EV. Time between reaction to application of power is far quicker in a Model 3 than even the fastest manual driver. Sure manuals are fun, but we they are antiquated.

First, I've never driven a car as fun as my Tesla. Time allowing, I take drives just to take a drive. Second, a manual transmission was born of necessity, not as a benefit. When automatic transmissions were designed they were not a clear winner so manual and automatic co-existed.

That said, I sometimes miss having a manual transmission and front wheel drive. Its a minor thing, but I could take corners in town much faster in a manual than I can in my Tesla. Sharp 90 degree right hand turns without losing any speed. Doing so is a combination of dropping a gear, being judicious on the throttle, and the front wheels pulling the car through the turn.

Naturally my Tesla pulls out of a turn far faster as it has much better acceleration. And its handling is superior to other cars that I have driven. Marvelous. And I'm slowly forgetting the fun I had with cornering because its just so much darn fun to drive the Tesla.

 

[CalX]

I don't see a lot of downside potential between now and deliveries. But I'm always surprised how the stock is able to drop on no news. Any reason to believe we have much farther to drop?

 

[Curt Renz]

Totally agree with the first part.

For the second part, I firmly believe journalists can't make a living by the traditional way. Media simply can't make enough money by selling newspapers. Most people don't buy newspapers. Most people don't subscribe to online news websites either, because people can get free news with a few key clicks. Online ads don't work, people either install ads blockers or ignore ads. Only Facebook and Google are getting the lions share of online ads money.

That begs the question, how do media make money? I think they take money from whoever is willing to pay. Then they will do the dirty work for them. This is the sad reality. VW, GM, short hedge funds, and oil companies spend so much money on marketing and PR campaign. That's where Media is getting money.

Remember Bloomberg gave writers extra bonus if their story can move the stock. Why do they do that? If you can't answer this question, you should consider getting out of the investment game.

Well considered, and possibly quite true. The notable exception remains television and radio where advertising is still the lifeblood. Tesla does not advertise, while its competitors do quite heavily. The latter are the customers of the broadcasters, while Tesla is not. The broadcasters feel an obligation to their advertising customers. But Tesla is fair game, if negative slants attract eyeballs and help the advertisers.

Musk has suggested that Tesla may eventually advertise. But it is pointless until production capability fully ramps to meet demand. With new products forthcoming, this may still be a while. Although a few educational ads placed now, may cause the media to think twice about damaging a company that could eventually become a heavy advertiser (customer).

 

[anthonyj]

I don't see a lot of downside potential between now and deliveries. But I'm always surprised how the stock is able to drop on no news. Any reason to believe we have much farther to drop?

A lot of toxic traders in this stock

 

[pnungesser]

As a person who has spent some time around job site generators, getting rid of the gen noise alone would be a godsend and make it worth the cost of the truck.

A few pages back someone questioned when Tesla might build a $25k car. I personally hope never. Tesla should continue to be a "premium" brand. What I would like to see considered is for Elon and some VCs to start a new company, TeslaLite (not my preferred name, but a working title). The company could be what VW is to Porsche, a lower cost high volume brand. By the way, is Porsche and VW one company when it comes to the $7500 tax credit? That's one of my main reason for suggesting TeslaLite as a separate start-up company. During the ramp-up the tax credit would help keep the cost to consumers low.

I would suggest starting with a small hatchback that would compete with the likes of a Civic. TeslaLite could outsource their batteries, motors, BMS etc. from another company. I'll let you guess who.

TeslaLite could make a much cheaper car without all of the features of the 3. Maybe a base car with a 200mi range. Maybe owners of TeslaLite could pay Tesla to buy into the Supercharger network. Maybe Tesla service centers could be authorized to help TeslaLite warranty services for fee. Which current Tesla options would be available on the car for an extra cost is above my pay grade.

With all of the expertises available from Tesla, maybe this could be done more quickly and at a lower cost than some of the legacy manufacturers. Could one of the closed plants back east be used?

TeslaLite could be kept a private company. Elon would like that.

Let me know how far off base this idea is. THX

 

[LJS22]

I don't see a lot of downside potential between now and deliveries. But I'm always surprised how the stock is able to drop on no news. Any reason to believe we have much farther to drop?

There’s a lot of support for the stock at the moment so it will be hard to push it too far down. Just listen to the words of Chamath “let Elon Musk keep executing”

 

[NicoV]

The expected delivery times in Europe for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus jumped to February next year. The LR and P can still be delivered in December.

 

[LJS22]

A few pages back someone questioned when Tesla might build a $25k car. I personally hope never. Tesla should continue to be a "premium" brand. What I would like to see considered is for Elon and some VCs to start a new company, TeslaLite (not my preferred name, but a working title). The company could be what VW is to Porsche, a lower cost high volume brand. By the way, is Porsche and VW one company when it comes to the $7500 tax credit? That's one of my main reason for suggesting TeslaLite as a separate start-up company. During the ramp-up the tax credit would help keep the cost to consumers low.

I would suggest starting with a small hatchback that would compete with the likes of a Civic. TeslaLite could outsource their batteries, motors, BMS etc. from another company. I'll let you guess who.

TeslaLite could make a much cheaper car without all of the features of the 3. Maybe a base car with a 200mi range. Maybe owners of TeslaLite could pay Tesla to buy into the Supercharger network. Maybe Tesla service centers could be authorized to help TeslaLite warranty services for fee. Which current Tesla options would be available on the car for an extra cost is above my pay grade.

With all of the expertises available from Tesla, maybe this could be done more quickly and at a lower cost than some of the legacy manufacturers. Could one of the closed plants back east be used?

TeslaLite could be kept a private company. Elon would like that.

Let me know how far off base this idea is. THX

I think recently Elon Musk has gotten off a cheaper Tesla. He sincerely believes Tesla will not be able to keep up with demand when FSD is complete. His path to a cheaper Tesla involves removing parts from the car such as the steering wheel...so the way his vision works is transportation will not be done manually within the next 5 years. No need for a cheaper Tesla at this point.

But that’s beyond my personal comprehension. I’ll have to see some more updates to FSD currently to be a believer

 

[FreqFlyer]

A few pages back someone questioned when Tesla might build a $25k car. I personally hope never. Tesla should continue to be a "premium" brand. What I would like to see considered is for Elon and some VCs to start a new company, TeslaLite (not my preferred name, but a working title). The company could be what VW is to Porsche, a lower cost high volume brand. By the way, is Porsche and VW one company when it comes to the $7500 tax credit? That's one of my main reason for suggesting TeslaLite as a separate start-up company. During the ramp-up the tax credit would help keep the cost to consumers low.

I would suggest starting with a small hatchback that would compete with the likes of a Civic. TeslaLite could outsource their batteries, motors, BMS etc. from another company. I'll let you guess who.

TeslaLite could make a much cheaper car without all of the features of the 3. Maybe a base car with a 200mi range. Maybe owners of TeslaLite could pay Tesla to buy into the Supercharger network. Maybe Tesla service centers could be authorized to help TeslaLite warranty services for fee. Which current Tesla options would be available on the car for an extra cost is above my pay grade.

With all of the expertises available from Tesla, maybe this could be done more quickly and at a lower cost than some of the legacy manufacturers. Could one of the closed plants back east be used?

TeslaLite could be kept a private company. Elon would like that.

Let me know how far off base this idea is. THX

Not off base, but you are going to get replies that Tesla was never meant to be a premium brand

 

[Sean Wagner]

No doubt, it could be tuned to control the body motion better in fast transitions and over humps and bumps but it's already better than 95% of the cars on the road. And improving control of body motion would necessarily result in reductions in ride comfort.

The following is interesting but pretty OT until Tesla develops its own active hydropneumatic suspension aka service centers' future money spinner.

...
Citroën Xantia Activa V6 1999 Nej 85
...
Porsche 997 GT3 RS 2008 Nej 82
Porsche Panamera S 2010 Nej 76
Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid 2016 Nej 67
...
Tesla Model S 85 Performance 2014 Nej 68
Tesla Model S P85D 2016 Nej 71
...
from a long list of cars the Swedish magazine Teknikens Vereld did a moose test with. Last number denotes top speed in kph through the parcours. Source: Teknikens Värld – Resultat i Teknikens Världs älgtest

This synthetic test of course doesn't say much about the car<>driver feedback loop. I just find it fascinating that an inconspicuous older car came with this kind of mojo ["10 suspension spheres, two hydraulic rams and ... three ECUs to control"].

Please pardon the interruption.

 

[sparcs]

A few pages back someone questioned when Tesla might build a $25k car. Tesla should continue to be a "premium" brand.

a small crossover/hatchback in that price range might make sense. Simple vehicle that's more affordable with no steering wheel and optimized for robotaxi use.

If Tesla is truly going to expand to high volume vehicle production beyond every other car maker, then they will need more variety. The largest car makers make 9 million vehicles per year. At that point, you are expanding beyond just the premium market.

 

[Hock1]

A few pages back someone questioned when Tesla might build a $25k car. I personally hope never. Tesla should continue to be a "premium" brand. What I would like to see considered is for Elon and some VCs to start a new company, TeslaLite (not my preferred name, but a working title). The company could be what VW is to Porsche, a lower cost high volume brand. By the way, is Porsche and VW one company when it comes to the $7500 tax credit? That's one of my main reason for suggesting TeslaLite as a separate start-up company. During the ramp-up the tax credit would help keep the cost to consumers low.

I would suggest starting with a small hatchback that would compete with the likes of a Civic. TeslaLite could outsource their batteries, motors, BMS etc. from another company. I'll let you guess who.

TeslaLite could make a much cheaper car without all of the features of the 3. Maybe a base car with a 200mi range. Maybe owners of TeslaLite could pay Tesla to buy into the Supercharger network. Maybe Tesla service centers could be authorized to help TeslaLite warranty services for fee. Which current Tesla options would be available on the car for an extra cost is above my pay grade.

With all of the expertises available from Tesla, maybe this could be done more quickly and at a lower cost than some of the legacy manufacturers. Could one of the closed plants back east be used?

TeslaLite could be kept a private company. Elon would like that.

Let me know how far off base this idea is. THX

Because every car company is so far behind Tesla in the development of BEVs, I'd like to see Tesla partner up with FCA to do exactly what you are proposing. Do a technology-transfer for lower priced cars, such as those made by Fiat. The world can't wait for the ICE OEMs to catch up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let me know how far off base this idea is. THX

Your ideas are exactly the opposite of the approach Eon proposed on July 20, 2016 in Master Plan - Part Deux:

"What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018."​

Sound familiar? GF3 Shanghai was in the plan even back then.

BMW is the boutique brand, one which will be dead within 10 years as they fail to make the transition to EVs.

 

[electrichapp]

i guess robinhooders who bought the dip are taking their profits

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bizarre action today, I guess simple headlines do have quite an effect. Well done media whores!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Glad someone has finally done a reasonable size survey with a good level of detail. It seems quite clear that while quality can suffer during short term production/delivery bursts, Tesla is well ahead of the industry average already and only getting better.
Of course, I fully expect most journalists to ignore these statistics and continue to worship one off anecdotes that fit their narrative.

Some interesting results and I'm sure some useful feedback Tesla could use to improve its product.

One thing that stands out is how many customers flag voice commands as a feature weakness. I have wondered for some time when Tesla is going to strengthen this with a high quality AI assistant. Will it partner with Google or Alexa for this or will it go it alone? My money is on a Tesla assistant that they will want to eventually become a real rival to Alexa/Siri etc (In a Robotaxi world having a personalised AI assistant to chat to in the car could have huge value). I haven't seen any sign of Tesla hiring Natural Language Processing AI talent though. Anyone know if this is an internal AI project within Tesla?

Interior materials seems like another standout for some relatively easy product improvement.

Obviously they will have Nikola AI assistant. Not sure how the Serbian accent will be received, but at least it will bring some gender balance to the female voice dominated market.

 

[RobStark]

GM, Toyota, and Fiat are backing Trump's ridiculous lawsuit against the CA clean air standards.
*fast forward anywhere from 6 months to 5 years from now
"Halp, these new air standards aren't fair. We didn't know this was coming and now we will be at a disadvantage!" Pollution and climate change aside, they are short sighted idiots.

GM and Toyota Support Trump Administration on Emissions Rollback

This has been posted a few times.

All the legacy OEMs wanted a compromise between the Trump Administration and California. And a stable national regulatory environment as opposed to split regime between CARB states and non-CARB states with hugely varying requirements.

California Dems and Trump want no part of a compromise.

California reached agreement with some OEMs like Ford and BMW.

Trump threatened to stop defending auto OEMs interest and let CA have their way with them.

It is in these circumstances that GM,FCA, and Toyota caved and are publicly backing the Trump administration.

I very much doubt Mary Barra and Akio Toyoda wear MAGA hats for breakfast every morning.

 

[KarenRei]

The expected delivery times in Europe for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus jumped to February next year. The LR and P can still be delivered in December.

I'm... now getting nervous.

This is increasingly looking like I might not get my car in Q1...