Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Do you believe you would be less fortunate if the majority of analysts covering the company were not auto/transportation analysts but rather tech/software/energy analysts?

Probably not for a few reasons. First, Amazon was treated like Tesla for a long time until it wasn't. Second, Tesla doesn't advertise so the media doesn't want anyone to succeed unless they pay the protection money. Third, media wants clicks/viewers and negative headlines get more clicks. Fourth, many of those who do pay the protection money are Tesla competitors or will be less profitable as Tesla succeeds.

 

[willowspuppy]

BTW, Lord Treelon was knocked off the leaderboard by the CEO of Shopify who's pledged 1000001 trees... Did 100 myself, mouse-nuts, I know, but if just 10k of Treelon's 29m followers did the same, would be a lot of trees.

Hopefully Elon will increase his donation to 1,000,420. You know... for the trees.

 

[GOVA]

Model Y is going to be built in Fremont, why the second guessing?

Why not? It is Tesla. Nothing is written in stone.
Besides, they can name the new building whatever really. Until something comes out of it we will not know for sure.

Because I can.

Because this would surprise everybody, shorts included.

Last, current Fremont alone will not be able to produce enough model Y to satisfy planned demand.

 

[Nocturnal]

Amphibious? Surely not. But then again...

Elon is not only the real world ironman, he's also Q.

Would be a nice feature for boat docks and for people who like to off road.

I don't think Tesla is a risk free investment. There are still risks. There are still chances for rough periods.

I suspect for a long time Elon was worried about hostile take over. Imagine if Saudi fund or VW start to buy shares on the open market, and turn into large shareholders. Elon would not like that situation. He could be voted out.

He said at some point Tesla will be so large that nobody will have the resource to take large chunk of Tesla. I think he is thinking about Tesla's market cap reaching half trillion and beyond. I do think the next few years will be the transition period. Those funds that missed the opportunity to build a sizable investment won't be able to do it later. People on this forum is the first group that can see what's coming.

I was a bit worried about that or an acquisition for a bit there when things were looking rough. ​

 

[TradingInvest]

Passenger: So how do you like the car?

99.6% of Cabbies: It's a pleasure to drive

100% of Cabbies: it saves on gasoline.

 

[KarenRei]

IIHS Model 3 ratings updated:
2020 Tesla Model 3 4-door sedan

Once again, Top Safety Pick+. Of 9 categories, only 1 wasn't perfect - "Front crash prevention: vehicle-to-pedestrian" was only "Advanced" rather than "Superior". Of the numerous subcategories, only one of those was less than perfect - "Small Overlap : Driver injury : lower leg/foot" is "acceptable" rather than "good" (but better than "marginal" or "poor")

 

[ZeApelido]

Ok, now I'm excited. And I want it.

Model Y Prototype Spotted (2019-10-25) : teslamotors

EDIT: Not sure if there's a perspective issue with the dash cam, but this looks a lot larger than I had previously thought, not just a 3 with a hatch. This makes me feel better about the differentiation.

Looks like production is starting by February.

 

[Chickenlittle]

FCA and Peugeot have reached a "deal", apparently.

How do you think this affects deal on tesla FCA over credits? Does Peugeot have any credits, will the deal decrease FCA need to decrease penalties?

 

[StealthP3D]

BTW, Lord Treelon was knocked off the leaderboard by the CEO of Shopify who's pledged 1000001 trees... Did 100 myself, mouse-nuts, I know, but if just 10k of Treelon's 29m followers did the same, would be a lot of trees.

Musk should ask each of his followers to plant just one tree for him. If they did, that would be 29 Million trees right there!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Nice: the addressable market for Tesla's "ZEV pool" would increase significantly, as neither FCA nor Peugeot are anywhere close to reaching the 90g/km target of European CO2 emissions.

These are the latest numbers I could find:
CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in the European Union: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2018 | International Council on Clean Transportation

These are interesting for several reasons:
1) They indicate the pooling information (e.g., FCA-Tesla!).
2) The market share indicates that combining PSA and FCA would nearly quadruple the size of the pool!
3) FCA and PSA both have gotten considerably WORSE in CO2 emissions from 2017-2018 (+5 and +7 g/km)
4) PSA-Opel is in somewhat better shape than FCA: 20% CO2 reduction required vs 24%.

If I have time in the next several days, I try to dust off my ZEV credit/super-credit model and see what an FCA/PSA/Tesla pool might look like as far as value of ZEVs to penalty reduction.

 

[Thekiwi]

On July 20, 2016 in the "Master Plan - Part Deux" Elon wrote:

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport

"With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below." <-- ed.note: hedging autonomy​

Later on, at the June 5, 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elon answered a sharehodler question on 'is there going to be a time in the next few years when Tesla will produce a compact or subcompact vehicle to fulfill the Master Plan - Part Deux mandate':

Elon: "Yeah, I think we'll do a compact car in less than 5 years."​

Then, on Sep 24, 2019 Elon tweeted that Tesla is building a major engineering team in China:

"This includes original engineering of new factory processes & cars. Great engineers will only join if original engineering is supported, not just localization."

12:55 PM - 24 Sep 2019​

Notice the "new cars" part? Focusing on the domestic market in China, that can only mean a new compact and/or subcompact car. They have a huge TAM in China, replacing the maximum number of ICE powered vehicles. That's the goal of 'Part Deux'.

So putting it all together, the answer in our game of Clue is "Model 2, coming to China in 2023, with a sledgehammer ($25K)."

Post-2024, Model 1 (the subcompact car), to follow as necessary. Can they do <$20K?

Cheers!

I know this might be a bit strange to hear for people living in markets where the middle class usually purchase/lease new cars, but I think used model 3s are going to end up being the really popular “low cost tesla” once pricing falls into the $25-$30k region.

 

[Hock1]

Yeah, that doesn't work in this universe when market makers can conjure up an infinite number of shares to sell short. They have a de facto exemption to the law of supply and demand when it comes to price discovery for an individual equity.

Your rant is touching, but naive to reality. See @Hock1 's comment earlier today about:

1. the Madoff (shortseller's) exemption
   
2. uptick rule change

IT DOES NOT MATTER if every single long holder never sells a share: market makers create phantom shares under the guise of "providing liquidity". In fact, they usurp the Company's sovereign right to be the sole issuer of equity for that company. And the SEC is fine with that.

So the game is rigged. We know that, but hold shares anyway to support the company. Now that Tesla is self-funding, market makers and their sugar-daddy/oil-baby's can't hold back Tesla's success.

That's what matters, not whether some 'swingers' gain or lose a few bux. It's about the future of our culture on this planet, and if we'll preserve a livable environment for our children. That's the battle

That's why we fight.

This is all right on the money. Don't know if you saw my comment the other day about my conversation with a recently-retired attorney for NASDAQ. To your point about phantom shares, he said: "The DTCC (Depository Trust Clearing Corporation) has no idea how many shares of a particular company are in the system." I.e., no correlation to the actual amount of shares that a company has issued.

 

[TradingInvest]

Based on this Jonas interview, I believe MS switched to long. I don't really care if they are long or short. I do want to know what all the players are doing.

 

[Thekiwi]

Unfortunately, once again, the shorts and various media have managed to mitigate damage and drive the stock down to mitigate much of the immediate gains after the ER. Seems their pockets are unlimitedly deep. *sigh*

Dan

?

We are still up $60 / 24% on the pre-earnings share price

 

[KarenRei]

Probably not for a few reasons. First, Amazon was treated like Tesla for a long time until it wasn't. Second, Tesla doesn't advertise so the media doesn't want anyone to succeed unless they pay the protection money. Third, media wants clicks/viewers and negative headlines get more clicks. Fourth, many of those who do pay the protection money are Tesla competitors or will be less profitable as Tesla succeeds.

Aired 15 June 2003. AMZN was $34,13 at that point (even less when the episode was written) - down from its dotcom high of $112,00. An investor who followed Dwight's investment of one penny would have $52,15 today. An investor who followed his buying 5 shares ($170,65) would have $8899,95 today.

 

[Cherry Wine]

?

We are still up $60 / 24% on the pre-earnings share price

We are still up over the post-ER price.

 

[KarenRei]

Musk should ask each of his followers to plant just one tree for him. If they did, that would be 29 Million trees right there!

Unfortunately, most of his followers are in the northern hemisphere, and it's not exactly tree-planting season anymore

 

[Fact Checking]

These are the latest numbers I could find:
CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in the European Union: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2018 | International Council on Clean Transportation
View attachment 471586
These are interesting for several reasons:
1) They indicate the pooling information (e.g., FCA-Tesla!).
2) The market share indicates that combining PSA and FCA would nearly quadruple the size of the pool!
3) FCA has gotten considerably WORSE in CO2 emissions from 2017-2018 (+5 g/km)
4) PSA-Opel is in somewhat better shape than FCA: 20% CO2 reduction required vs 24%.

If I have time in the next several days, I try to dust off my ZEV credit/super-credit model and see what an FCA/PSA/Tesla pool might look like as far as value of ZEVs to penalty reduction.

Note that for Tesla's ZEV revenue purposes what matters most is not the average pollution and how it relates to the industry average, but the "absolute excess emissions" of FCA-PSA-Opel combined firm - and this indeed would increase at least 3.6x-fold after the merger (!).

PSA has a number of ZEV vehicles, but they are already included in their 114g/km average, and they are a long way from 90g/km.

The fact that FCA's emissions got worse by +5 g/km is proof that reducing emissions in the ICE industry is hard: they'd have to cut some of their most profitable lines of business, and the rest would still be polluting.

A 3x increase in the pool size means that Tesla's potential revenue maximum from EU ZEV credits increases 2x-3x (not exactly 3.6x due to 'super-credits' which are somewhat diluted by the merger).

Since the pooling agreements are exclusive, i.e. Tesla is not allowed to pool with other ICE carmakers anymore and they require FCA's permission to expand the pool and FCA might not have allowed some other ICE manufacturer into the pool even if Tesla reduces the average emissions to below 90 g/km, an expansion of the pool is a Big Deal IMHO and big positive for Tesla.

If FCA ZEV pooling revenue of Tesla was estimated to be $1b/year in Europe, this proposed merger increases that to $2b-$3b/year (to the extent Tesla can ramp up in Europe) - as it's unlikely that FCA-PSA-Opel would be able to ramp up to Tesla's scale of ZEV vehicle production and sales anytime soon.

 

[Mokuzai]

Unfortunately, most of his followers are in the northern hemisphere, and it's not exactly tree-planting season anymore

From Help Us Plant 20 Million Trees - Join #TeamTrees

When will the trees be planted?
Trees will be planted throughout the year starting in January of 2020 and completed no later than December 2022. We treat your donation with the greatest respect, so we’re working with the Arbor Day Foundation to ensure high survivability rates for all the trees planted as part of Team Trees. Sure, you could plant trees faster, but you’d be risking the integrity of this vision.

 

[Curt Renz]

Based on this Jonas interview, I believe MS switched to long. I don't really care if they are long or short. I do want to know what all the players are doing.

Adam Jonas appears to still rate Tesla as a Hold as he has for most of the last two years. His price target is $230.

Jonas at TipRanks: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas

He certainly sounded positive on Tesla during that interview. An upgrade would not be surprising.