Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

You know people are desperate, losing, and pathetic when they try to drop the stock price of a multi-billion dollar global brand by getting someones twitter account removed because they support the company.... Thats kinda obsessive, dumb-as-hell behavior. How big do you think they reckon the dip in teslas Q4 sales will be now they got a twitter account removed...!

 

[VValleyEV]

I was surprised when I saw this video

Even in July they managed only about 750kWh for solar for the whole month. For us - including charging and air conditioning - we go through that in about ten days. As we live much farther north, solar would even be less beneficial for us. For a lot of us I don't think solar is the answer.

Very interesting.

However, I live in Northern AZ, not that far from Colorado, and I generate about 16Mwh per annum from roof solar, or over 3x this example. Some of this is geographic in nature, but not all. Here’s the problem: we have only a really vague idea of the power generating capacity of her system, and she may not know either. I suspect that this system was spec’ed to keep the total cost low, and to just be a small supplement to lower the energy grid costs a modest amount, which is in fact what she measured after a year.

Folks that purchase solar systems speak in terms of “number of panels”. Not very useful. Guess what, peak output per solar panels varies, a lot, and the best ones keep improving every year. Plus the total power coming from your solar panels is limited by the inverter that you install, of course the thing that converts the incoming DC power from the panels to AC. If you have a 4kw inverter, doesn’t matter how many panels you put up, the maximum power you will generate at any instant will be 4kw.

So I am guessing that she has a 4kw inverter, maybe 300kw per panel providing 4.5kw peak. Useful to exceed that peak inverter capacity at the peak of a summer day, widens the power curve and gives you more on cloudy days.

Some quick math:

• $500 savings per year and 20 year ROI excluding Powerwall means whe spent $10k exclusive of powerwall.
• I have an 8kw inverter and 34 panels providing maybe 9kw peak (some from 2014, some from 2018). I do not have battery storage.
• My total system cost is about $20k, but that is not a good comparison number, because I started with a smaller 4kw system and upgraded several years later when I bought my first BEV. If I had purchsed the new system from scratch it may have been more like $15k
• My solar system provides more than enough for the house and hot tub and two Teslas. I figure my savings at about $800/year, so my ROI horizon something like $15k/$800 = 19 years. Not so different from the posted example.

My conclusion: if you want to install solar, consider going bigger than the recommendations, especially if you have or plan to purchase a BEV. You still will have to wait many years to cover your investment, but at least you will get a drastic reduction in grid costs right away, and you will be doing more for the planet.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Because if Apple is still serious about releasing an EV, then the easiest path In terms of battery supply and Vehicle manufacturing is buying or partnering with Tesla, which they can afford to do without blinking (as of yesterday they have $206 Billion in cash on hand, and annual net income of $55 Billion).

Apple was one of the only large companies to see the early potential in Tesla (so much so that they were in negotiations with Tesla to acquire it earlier this decade - but couldn’t agree on terms), and currently is one of the only large companies with the resources where they could acquire Tesla without any sort of increased debt risk. They are also one of the only large US companies that also have a strong relationship with China authorities.

I want Tesla to stay independent (for my own maximum return on investment), but if they were going to get bought or enter a partnership with anyone else I would hope it would be Apple. One would hope in any acquisition that it stays as a subsidiary & Elon would stay on to run Tesla operations for 5-10 years (and he keeps a similar compensation plan), and once Mars bound crewed Starships start departing Elon can retire from Tesla and focus on SpaceX / building the mars settlement full time.

If Apple was smart, they would have made an offer for Tesla when it was at 200. They could have offered about a 100B enterprise value, or between 500-600 share. I'm not necessarily advocating this, but just speaking hypothetically. We all know how good Tesla is, and if we were at the head of Apple, wouldn't we consider buying Tesla instead of developing our own competing platform? Also, while many shareholders may have been disappointed at such a "low ball" price, I'm sure many, perhaps even a majority, would have jumped at this possibility. (Ross Gerber for one; he tweets once a month that Apple should buy Tesla, and I'm sure he would be happy with 500. Not so much Cathy Wood or Ron Baron.)

The higher Tesla goes, the more expensive it gets for an outside buyer. But it also becomes more derisked. As is often in the market, companies usually pay premium (buy at the top), so this could also happen with Apple. But, personally, I think Apple is looking to develop its own platform rather than buy Tesla or someone else.

To be clear, my own target for Tesla is 3000-6000, and I would much rather no one buy them. But the point I'm making above is from the perspective of an outsider or competitor.

And there is the whole issue with Elon Musk. Would he remain CEO or not? That is perhaps the most thorniest issue. He would likely demand to be made CEO of Apple (or the combined company), which I think would actually be good. He could then bring Neuralink into Apple, and advance the next great frontier in computing:

desktops >> laptops >> smartphones >> wearables (watch, visor/glasses) >> cyborg implants.

Transportation, personal computing, and renewable energy: the quest for a fantastic future! Let's get Apple and Tesla together and make a bunch of babies! Ha, ha.... just kidding. C'mon folks, lighten up!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Appla? Tesple? Teslapple? Applesla?

Okay, I'll stop with the jokes...

 

[Antares Nebula]

OT (slightly)
Stated on Maher Overtime recently by Neil Degrasse Tyson: if Greenland and Antarctica were to melt, the sea level would rise to the elbow of the Statue of Liberty... there was a collective gasp that was quite audible.

Should be heard around the world daily...

This is actually a good idea. We can take all that extra water and bring it to Mars. God knows we need it there! Global warming would help with the colonization of Mars. Who would have thought?! Yay!!

 

[RobStark]

Nobody is paying sticker and one can get $5-$6K off all day, any day on Camry,Altima, Malibu, Sonata, etc. $$3-4K off Accords.

Roughly, the cheapest used Model 3 is around $37K

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searc...&searchSource=SORT&sort=price-lowest&zc=76543

There may be 1 or 2 buyers that got $5k off on a year old brand new base $24k Camry.

$5-$6k on fully loaded $39k MSRP Camrys maybe.

People aren't paying less than $20k for a brand new Camrys all day long.

 

[RobStark]

FWIW: according to wikipedia it will start at $63,000. That is not less than +$10k, it is more than +$10k. In fact, that's something like +$25k without having features found in the base Model 3 (such as autopilot).

The Polestar 2 that is equivalent to "Performance" will start at $63k then there is an upgraded drivetrain package equivalent to "Ludicrous" will be an extra ~$5k.

The base Polestar 2 will be about ~$43k and come with a hatchback. It will likely have less space and not a third row but the hatch makes it closer to $39k Model Y.

 

[elasalle]

If Apple was smart, they would have made an offer for Tesla when it was at 200. They could have offered about a 100B enterprise value, or between 500-600 share. I'm not necessarily advocating this, but just speaking hypothetically. We all know how good Tesla is, and if we were at the head of Apple, wouldn't we consider buying Tesla instead of developing our own competing platform? Also, while many shareholders may have been disappointed at such a "low ball" price, I'm sure many, perhaps even a majority, would have jumped at this possibility. (Ross Gerber for one; he tweets once a month that Apple should buy Tesla, and I'm sure he would be happy with 500. Not so much Cathy Wood or Ron Baron.)

The higher Tesla goes, the more expensive it gets for an outside buyer. But it also becomes more derisked. As is often in the market, companies usually pay premium (buy at the top), so this could also happen with Apple. But, personally, I think Apple is looking to develop its own platform rather than buy Tesla or someone else.

To be clear, my own target for Tesla is 3000-6000, and I would much rather no one buy them. But the point I'm making above is from the perspective of an outsider or competitor.

And there is the whole issue with Elon Musk. Would he remain CEO or not? That is perhaps the most thorniest issue. He would likely demand to be made CEO of Apple (or the combined company), which I think would actually be good. He could then bring Neuralink into Apple, and advance the next great frontier in computing:

desktops >> laptops >> smartphones >> wearables (watch, visor/glasses) >> cyborg implants.

Transportation, personal computing, and renewable energy: the quest for a fantastic future! Let's get Apple and Tesla together and make a bunch of babies! Ha, ha.... just kidding. C'mon folks, lighten up!

EM's time is important, why bother thinking about the next iPhone ..

 

[StealthP3D]

Put the maximum number of panels that fit on every roof. Done.

What about the negative consequences of going this route? I mean, it would literally decimate the oil and natural gas companies.

 

[Antares Nebula]

EM's time is important, why bother thinking about the next iPhone ..

Agree. Cyborg implants are the next frontier of personal computing. Apple and the tech giants should be working on this. Neuralink is showing the way.

My point is that Apple is a personal computing leader and is (likely) also working on EV/smartcars. Tesla is the current leader in EV/smartcars. And Musk, with Neuralink, is leading (what is to become) the next great personal computing revolution (the next frontier beyond wearables). So there is overlap. Apple and Musk Industries (via Tesla and Neuralink) are bound (eventually) to be competitors on both fronts. At the same time, however, they share similar ideals and philosophies.

Therefore, would it be beneficial for Apple to acquire Tesla and Neuralink and make Musk the CEO? (Like Apple acquired Next and brought Steve Jobs back as CEO.) If I were a board member at Apple, this is what I would be thinking.

 

[LN1_Casey]

No. The Space X version (which if you're gonna get one, you gotta get that one) is a 2-seater.

Ah! You are right, my mistake. I had forgotten the SpaceX package replaced the rear seats.

 

[StealthP3D]

I've already recommended to friends and colleagues thinking about buying a Tesla to time their delivery to be outside of the final month or at least final 2 weeks of a quarter. I don't want their first experience as a new Tesla owner to be standing around in a crowd of new cars with a crowd of new owners, getting an incomplete orientation to the car, and insufficient time and opportunity to inspect their new car. I want them to have an excellent new owner experience that gets them off on the right foot.

Keep in mind that people are all different and value different things. I value my time and don't want to waste it with strangers. And I'm not looking to meet new friends, time is a valuable commodity - there is a fixed amount of it. It's not that I'm not a nice person, it's just that an ever-widening circle of friends is not sustainable in any meaningful way.

We took delivery of our first Model 3 in the middle of the second Q of 2018. Of course it was somewhat exciting getting a new Tesla and we had two smart, young delivery specialists to assist. But I had already read the Owner's Manual (and so had my wife). All of the information presented was just basic stuff that was well described in the Owner's Manual so I learned absolutely *nothing* from the orientation and was actually feeling kind of antsy to just drive away in our new car. But I was polite and hung out with the rest of the buyers in our group as the specialists did their "spiel". I felt the whole hour spent during orientation was a complete waste of time.

A few months later we took delivery at the same delivery center of my P3D. It was the last day of Q3 2018 at 3pm and it was absolute mayhem. People from as far away as Idaho were there taking delivery. The place was packed. The Tesla Delivery Specialists were completely overwhelmed but we managed to sign the papers, find our car and drive it away in less time than the first delivery experience. It was a much better experience to not have to go through the orientation talk, etc.

I bought the car, just give me the damn key cards and let me get outta here with my new prize!

 

[kengchang]

Lots of permits today, looks like BIW5 is making good progress if Fire suppression system is being setup.

 

[wipster]

The screenshot picture of the S cockpit during the race posted above by KarenRei (#98185) is pretty damning ... Range Mode, really ???

It's not to be
If you mess with
Karen Rei

 

[Remus]

If Apple was smart, they would have made an offer for Tesla when it was at 200. They could have offered about a 100B enterprise value, or between 500-600 share. I'm not necessarily advocating this, but just speaking hypothetically. We all know how good Tesla is, and if we were at the head of Apple, wouldn't we consider buying Tesla instead of developing our own competing platform? Also, while many shareholders may have been disappointed at such a "low ball" price, I'm sure many, perhaps even a majority, would have jumped at this possibility. (Ross Gerber for one; he tweets once a month that Apple should buy Tesla, and I'm sure he would be happy with 500. Not so much Cathy Wood or Ron Baron.)

The higher Tesla goes, the more expensive it gets for an outside buyer. But it also becomes more derisked. As is often in the market, companies usually pay premium (buy at the top), so this could also happen with Apple. But, personally, I think Apple is looking to develop its own platform rather than buy Tesla or someone else.

To be clear, my own target for Tesla is 3000-6000, and I would much rather no one buy them. But the point I'm making above is from the perspective of an outsider or competitor.

And there is the whole issue with Elon Musk. Would he remain CEO or not? That is perhaps the most thorniest issue. He would likely demand to be made CEO of Apple (or the combined company), which I think would actually be good. He could then bring Neuralink into Apple, and advance the next great frontier in computing:

desktops >> laptops >> smartphones >> wearables (watch, visor/glasses) >> cyborg implants.

Transportation, personal computing, and renewable energy: the quest for a fantastic future! Let's get Apple and Tesla together and make a bunch of babies! Ha, ha.... just kidding. C'mon folks, lighten up!

There were frequent high level talks between Apple and Tesla back in the days when project Titian first started. Latter we found out that Apple talked to BMW and VW too. Naturally for Apple, they want full control, a bottom up redesign, to the point that BMW said f off.

I can never imagine Apple buying Tesla.

 

[StealthP3D]

There were frequent high level talks between Apple and Tesla back in the days when project Titian first started. Latter we found out that Apple talked to BMW and VW too. Naturally for Apple, they want full control, a bottom up redesign, to the point that BMW said f off.

I can never imagine Apple buying Tesla.

They won't, but not for lack of trying. Musk is far too smart and forward-thinking to *ever* let that happen. Thankfully.

 

[Mike Smith]

Insideevs Tesla October US sales should be released tomorrow morning. It should give TSLA a boost given all the recent kooky talk about declining US sales.

 

[Thekiwi]

Given FCA chose to comment at all, i think it is likely they have at least discussed a EV Powertrain supply deal with Tesla. Perhaps they bought credits for 2019-2021 and then laid out initial plans to start buying EV Powertrains from Tesla instead in 2022. This would give Tesla time to ramp up battery and powertrain production.

I think a deal like this would be very positive for Tesla. Increased economies of scale can reduce capex and production costs for their own products.
I'm sure Tesla are confident in maintaining enough cost and technology lead even if they supply competitors with EV Powertrains. Tesla will have 1) A price advantage equal to their EV Powertrain gross profit. 2) Dealership vertical integration and online sales cost advantage. 3) Non EV-Powertrain innovation advantage. 4) Autonomous features and possibly Robotaxi advantage. 5) Entertainment and OS software advantage. 6) Safety advantage (structural design for safety). 7) Car durability advantage (more than just the powertrain designed for 1 million miles, plus they probably won't sell 1 million mile battery chemistry anyway). 8) Ability for rapid and continuous improvement of the car design, production process or software with its agile development processes.

The hardest bit of any deal would be to convince any potential customer that Tesla will not just cut supply and prioritise internal production whenever it meets any supply/production bottlenecks.

Another thought: After Tesla ramps up its own cell production, it might want to use the existing by-then-inferior Panasonic supply from GF1, and what better way than to sell the lesser quality product to a competitor.

 

[kengchang]

Insideevs Tesla October US sales should be released tomorrow morning. It should give TSLA a boost given all the recent kooky talk about declining US sales.

US is pretty dry of Tesla inventory, just saying

 

[Thekiwi]

The current market cap tells you almost nothing about how much it would cost to acquire Tesla. Most shareholders are likely to hold out for a far far higher valuation before accepting any offer.

Plenty sold last week at $320-$340. Apple could afford $1000 a share without breaking a sweat and I’m sure a majority of shareholders would take it (unfortunately). Elon himself might take that, given it essentially gives him the tens of billions needed to enable the first Mars settlement missions without any other funding.