Can you guys help me out with this question that keeps plaguing me. So, there are 2 predominant thoughts on climate change. First, there is the belief that the science on man-made climate change is obvious and we need to take immediate action to fix the damage we've done. The 2nd train of thought is that the whole thing is a hoax and there have always been cycles of cooling and heating. And strangely, these 2 train of thoughts are split almost 50-50 among Americans. But, my question is not about climate change, or why people believe what they believe. We all know the facts and the arguments.
What I do want to know is this. Those who don't believe in climate change ride around in big SUVs and trucks (or whatever particular vehicle they chose to drive). They live by their creed. They only consider the vehicle when making a choice - the environment has no impact on their decision. However, on the other side, people are VERY passionate about the climate and protecting it. So much so that I see on here where poster's kids are buying trees with their lawn cutting proceeds.
So that leads me to the question. In America, we have over 200 million adults. Since the poverty rate is around 14%, that leaves about 172 million adult Americans who could possibly afford an EV. If we split that number into 2, that leaves us with 86 million adults not living in poverty that believe in climate change. Yet, EVs make up about ~2% of car sales in America. Tesla has literally sold around 500,000 cars in the U.S. in its entire existence.
So, please tell me, if people are SURE that climate change is real, and they believe that emissions are causing so many issues, WHY in the heck do they still chose to drive around in an ICEV? I mean, we're talking 87 MILLION PEOPLE!! Do you realize how much impact 87 million people could have? If they can't afford a $35k Tesla, surely they can afford a $15k used Leaf.
People simply can't make ANY sacrifice for what they believe in. I can almost guarantee you those people riding around in Camrys and Accords live in houses way bigger than they need and spend a ton of money going out to eat every month. Moving to a Model 3 would be so easy.
Or is it possible that not as many people truly believe in climate change as we think? One or the other is true, because otherwise EVs would be almost 50% of sales in the U.S.
You ask a number of good questions. In response to the 2%, when I was architecting computers around 1995-2005, our rule of thumb was that when a technology passed 1%, it was going to win. The size of the advantage of the incumbent, from cost through volumes, the understanding of the market decision process, access to markets, etc, all made breaking through extremely difficult. Basically, a solution is head and shoulders better if it gets a real foothold. I think this is just as true with EV’s.
A number of Tesla owners are not moved by the environmental argument. The foot on the floor response is what decides them.
The science is not in dispute. The last papers submitted for peer review arguing against any of the central arguments of human caused climate change, were torn apart 20 years ago. Anybody that can make a case against climate change, and can show their math, would be showered with unbelievable wealth.
The ~$5 trillion carbon industry spends a billion dollars a year they document through non profits here in the US. All to create a perception that a debate exists. They would slow down the end of the carbon burning cycle. That isn’t going to change.
Most people are too busy getting to work, feeding themselves and their loved ones, and showing off to each other to focus on anything else.
This is why simple views like they don’t know or don’t care aren’t completely true. Many are too busy or too tired or too overwhelmed to prioritize climate in their daily decisions. That’s OK.
Solar, wind, and batteries are the critical technologies to reduce the affects of climate change. They already exist, and are already cost effective. But they don’t exist at scale, yet. Batteries are the hardest component to scale. That’s why Tesla and any other serious EV’s are so important. They drive a dramatic increase in the need for batteries.
Tesla nearly sold as many vehicles in 3Q19 as they did in 2017. Quadrupling in less than two years is not too bad. Look for them to triple that in 2-3 years, then triple again in another 2-3 years. At the same time, local and large scale battery storage will grow faster. And solar perhaps even faster.
We humans may not be able to absorb the new technologies much faster than that.