There were 7 ships loaded on October for overseas deliveries and one in the end on September. Not many cars produced for US. maybe 11-13k M3-s. Ignore US deliveries per given month, US Q4 will be very strong.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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There were 7 ships loaded on October for overseas deliveries and one in the end on September. Not many cars produced for US. maybe 11-13k M3-s. Ignore US deliveries per given month, US Q4 will be very strong.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Usually it's population that migrates to jobs, not jobs to population:
Nevada population growth is much faster than the U.S. average: ~60k new residents per year, and working age population is expanding as well, by about 40k/year. This is why the Rust Belt is depopulating and Nevada/California/Texas is growing.
GF1 will be fine I think.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Also just noticed that Tesla is hiring at all their sales locations in Georgia as well as the Marietta Service Center. Doesn't make sense since we all know the company is going bankwupt. lol!
Jobs at Tesla | Tesla
Dan
Jobs at Tesla | Tesla
Dan
It looks like Tesla has increased LR AWD range from 310 miles to 322 miles on new Model 3s. Guess we will soon see if old cars get a software upgrade too.
Yeah, I had my heart set on a new Roadster too, but might have 2nd thoughts over a Plaid S. Wait and see, I'm not in a rush for that, need to get the wife's MY sorted first and my kids off to university, or somewhere so I can offload my MX.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Indeed:
Also note how estimated U.S. delivery time has increased to 5-8 weeks for SR+ and AWD versions of the Model 3, 6-8 weeks for the Performance Model 3.
Make that a lot higher valuation.
I cannot see Tim and Elon working together for more than about ten minutes before the blood starts to flow.
Usually it's population that migrates to jobs, not jobs to population:
Nevada population growth is much faster than the U.S. average: ~60k new residents per year, and working age population is expanding as well, by about 40k/year. This is why the Rust Belt is depopulating and Nevada/California/Texas is growing.
GF1 will be fine I think.
Have you been to Reno? The population of Las Vegas metro is over 2 million and over 400 miles away. I don't see why Tesla can't methodically grow the current operation in Sparks. But they probably can't grow the energy operation and also take a big jump in employment for auto. Musk seems to agree with me or he would not be talking about building housing. East of the Mississippi he won't be building housing.
Europeans selected the lowest cost manufacturing sites in the U.S., despite the west coast being a huge market. Tesla didn't select Fremont based on location. Sparks followed as reasonably close to Fremont but with lower costs compared to Norcal. Reno is much closer to Fremont than it is to the population center of Nevada.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Interesting, and I did point out my source was wikipedia (not very reliable). But I used it because I didn't see anything else. Could just be my search failed me. Do you have a source for the $43k base price?
[edit: found the $63k is estimated US price for the launch edition, but final prices have not been determined. The pricing seems more solid than the Taycan as they have taken pre-orders in some regions so less likely to increase, but it certainly could in the US. But that doesn't say anything about future pricing or a $43k version. Polestar reveals prices for its Polestar 2 electric car - electrive.com]
[edit2: here we go, but this is a really soft number. They "expect" prices to fall to £35,000 after 12 months (right now that is ~$45k US). Sounds like they are expecting to make it up in volume (reducing production cost) which I wouldn't count on. It will probably happen, but it might take longer than 12 months even if it does. Polestar 2 revealed: specs, price and on-sale date]
[edit3: that last site gave £54,900 for the performance version which is currently ~$71k, the non-performance was £49,900 which is currently ~$64.5k so the ~$63k base price would not be for the performance version.]
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Pras
Member
The news floating around FCA potentially interested in buying Tesla skateboard powertrain is interesting. It doesn’t make sense for Tesla unless Tesla charges very high premium. I would assume that the margin on Tesla cars in powertrain vs software driven features are very different and it would instead make sense for Tesla to sell autopilot tech than hardware. Also in autopilot it would makes sense to only sell less-than-FSD like capability.
Just my thought.
Just my thought.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Ok, I take that back, I now agree with @EVNow that there's measurable shorting via the options market - here's the total open interest volume of the last 24 hours, for today's options expiry (2019 November 1):
Code:
expiry: November 1
Options Open Interest
PUTs CALLs
2019/Oct/31: 114,695 88,944
2019/Nov/01: 122,729 92,154
delta: +8,034 +3,210So in the past 24 hours there were 2.5x more puts purchased than calls.
The imbalance between puts and calls is now ~30k contracts, or 3 million shares-equivalent.
Note that the big risk to shorts will be on November 15, when 340k PUT contracts will expire, mostly worthless:
Code:
PUT $010: 750 , CALL $010: 0
PUT $020: 1,240 , CALL $020: 0
PUT $030: 785 , CALL $030: 0
PUT $040: 5,723 ## , CALL $040: 31
PUT $050: 83,673 ###################+, CALL $050: 134
PUT $060: 2,120 , CALL $060: 6
PUT $070: 2,659 # , CALL $070: 0
PUT $080: 4,096 # , CALL $080: 0
PUT $090: 2,223 , CALL $090: 0
PUT $100: 12,355 #### , CALL $100: 5
PUT $110: 2,697 # , CALL $110: 5
PUT $120: 1,306 , CALL $120: 1
PUT $130: 8,307 ## , CALL $130: 14
PUT $140: 1,589 , CALL $140: 7
PUT $150: 9,918 ### , CALL $150: 32
PUT $160: 4,064 # , CALL $160: 70
PUT $170: 2,755 # , CALL $170: 121
PUT $180: 7,618 ## , CALL $180: 283
PUT $190: 9,225 ### , CALL $190: 1,210
PUT $200: 18,967 ###### , CALL $200: 4,375 #
PUT $210: 13,784 #### , CALL $210: 772
PUT $220: 27,102 ######### , CALL $220: 5,985 ##
PUT $230: 14,905 ##### , CALL $230: 14,756 #####
PUT $240: 32,930 ########### , CALL $240: 5,271 #
PUT $250: 14,808 ##### , CALL $250: 12,327 ####
PUT $260: 9,853 ### , CALL $260: 9,880 ###
PUT $270: 4,210 # , CALL $270: 5,906 ##
PUT $280: 7,351 ## , CALL $280: 13,143 ####
PUT $290: 5,544 ## , CALL $290: 3,116 #
PUT $300: 12,853 #### , CALL $300: 5,913 ##
PUT $310: 6,617 ## , CALL $310: 4,161 #
PUT $320: 5,015 # , CALL $320: 4,193 #
PUT $330: 3,019 # , CALL $330: 4,150 #
PUT $340: 663 , CALL $340: 3,671 #
PUT $350: 143 , CALL $350: 3,249 #
PUT $360: 45 , CALL $360: 1,990
PUT $370: 12 , CALL $370: 1,552
PUT $380: 21 , CALL $380: 2,134
PUT $390: 4 , CALL $390: 819
PUT $400: 140 , CALL $400: 2,017
PUT $410: 1 , CALL $410: 608
PUT $420: 2 , CALL $420: 1,079
PUT $430: 0 , CALL $430: 1,158
PUT $440: 0 , CALL $440: 1,659
PUT $450: 0 , CALL $450: 489
PUT $460: 0 , CALL $460: 189
PUT $470: 0 , CALL $470: 716
PUT $480: 0 , CALL $480: 703
PUT $490: 0 , CALL $490: 275
PUT $500: 0 , CALL $500: 889
2019/Nov/15: PUTs: 341,092 ; CALLs: 119,064That's going to hurt.
Remember @KarenRei had a tip that Tesla had an agreement with one of the Big 3 for supplying the drive train for a pickup. Hmm...
The powerwall and solar combo is a strong one. I got sent a link to this article in a British newspaper (with an US Edition) about a mansion for sale near San Fransisco:
The mansion that will never run out of power: Sprawling California home with two Tesla Powerwalls, electric car chargers and views of San Francisco Bay goes on the market for $9MILLION - and it won't ever be hit by PG&E outages
According to Tesla, Powerwalls can detect an outage, disconnect the home from the grid and automatically restore power to a residence without interruption, working for seven days or more at a time, depending on the size of the home.
Mansion that will never run out of power with two Tesla Powerwalls goes on the market for $9 million | Daily Mail Online
The mansion that will never run out of power: Sprawling California home with two Tesla Powerwalls, electric car chargers and views of San Francisco Bay goes on the market for $9MILLION - and it won't ever be hit by PG&E outages
According to Tesla, Powerwalls can detect an outage, disconnect the home from the grid and automatically restore power to a residence without interruption, working for seven days or more at a time, depending on the size of the home.
Mansion that will never run out of power with two Tesla Powerwalls goes on the market for $9 million | Daily Mail Online
I thought the whole,"machine building the machine" (more automation) was suppose to take care of the labor issues such as in Reno?
When that process is perfected then GF1 will be built out.
When that process is perfected then GF1 will be built out.
The writer used worked on Google's car team, editorial on Tesla's autopilot price increase.
Elon Musk Warns Tesla “Full Self Driving” Goes Up Tomorrow. Do The Numbers Make Sense?
"It will be interesting to see how drivers react to such functionality. I’ve heard at least one report of a beta tester enjoying it, but there will be many who will find it frightening to do the job of a robocar safety driver with the vehicle making much more dramatic motions, and coming upon much more complex situations, including pedestrians, bicycles and children on the streets. In my own experience, even testing the red light detection has been a harrowing experience. You approach the light, or other such situations wondering, “is it going to see it?” “Do I need to intervene now?” You are torn between taking over and trying to find out if it would have figured it out, and that’s not relaxing. It may make the most sense being used on uncrowded streets, without vulnerable road users, but turned off in complex situations. Tesla’s current instructions tell drivers to turn off Autopilot in places like construction zones, though they frequently do not. It seems likely Tesla’s instructions on this product will also advise not using it in complex places."
"The full $7,000 or more price includes a hoped-for future value of a car that can do “real, true, actual full self-driving,” which is to say it can operate with no driver at all, and even join the Robotaxi fleet Tesla has promised and make big dollars for the owner. My recommendation, however, is that if that is going to happen, you take your $7,000 and buy Tesla shares or options. I suspect that if Tesla actually delivers on that well before anybody else, you will make more than enough on those shares to pay for any price increase. Of course, if they don’t deliver, you might not do so well with the investment."
Elon Musk Warns Tesla “Full Self Driving” Goes Up Tomorrow. Do The Numbers Make Sense?
"It will be interesting to see how drivers react to such functionality. I’ve heard at least one report of a beta tester enjoying it, but there will be many who will find it frightening to do the job of a robocar safety driver with the vehicle making much more dramatic motions, and coming upon much more complex situations, including pedestrians, bicycles and children on the streets. In my own experience, even testing the red light detection has been a harrowing experience. You approach the light, or other such situations wondering, “is it going to see it?” “Do I need to intervene now?” You are torn between taking over and trying to find out if it would have figured it out, and that’s not relaxing. It may make the most sense being used on uncrowded streets, without vulnerable road users, but turned off in complex situations. Tesla’s current instructions tell drivers to turn off Autopilot in places like construction zones, though they frequently do not. It seems likely Tesla’s instructions on this product will also advise not using it in complex places."
"The full $7,000 or more price includes a hoped-for future value of a car that can do “real, true, actual full self-driving,” which is to say it can operate with no driver at all, and even join the Robotaxi fleet Tesla has promised and make big dollars for the owner. My recommendation, however, is that if that is going to happen, you take your $7,000 and buy Tesla shares or options. I suspect that if Tesla actually delivers on that well before anybody else, you will make more than enough on those shares to pay for any price increase. Of course, if they don’t deliver, you might not do so well with the investment."
One more thing, FCA is now our bi**h
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