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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Musk said on the call that they’d likely start production at the beginning of next year, volume by the end. That’s 1.5 years, not 2.5.
In the meantime, they’re struggling to supply enough production of 3 to meet demand, why add another vehicle?
His job is to aid and abet the illegal manipulation of the shares of public companies. In this particular case, GS has lent many shares to short sellers of TSLA. GS is so deep in the short narrative, that is increasingly irrelevant, that they will do anything to extricate themselves from a potential *sugar*-storm. IMO.
I’ve seen this before, but don’t follow. Why would it matter how many shares they’ve lent to shorts? Said shorts will lose money as the stock rises, but that has zero effect on GS.
General Motors' proposal last autumn for the federal government to essentially apply the CA EV requirement nationwide, along with the proposal of several automakers including GM to extend and overhaul the income tax credit, reflects their concern about potential to recover their investment in EVs. Nationwide expansion of the CA EV requirement wouldn't by itself increase demand for their EVs, but it would help to level the playing field among traditional automakers re: investment in EVs , and a flood of EVs in the marketplace might help with market acceptance. The administration instead accepted the industry proposal from last summer to end the CA EV requirement. The fate of this is unknown pending court action and future election results. If GM's proposal is adopted by a future administration and Congress, they will have a better chance to eventually succeed if they devote sufficient resources and talent to tackle the technology gap with Tesla, although if Tesla doesn't trip they will keep raising the technology bar.
Also GM and Ford could consider biting the financial bullet and joining VW to greatly enhance the planned Electrify America network, similar to the Ford-VW-Daimler-BMW joint venture in Europe.
The automakers' dealers have been a hindrance so far with EV sales, but they are also a potential large asset if the automakers can manage the change. I can't imagine some people buying a car with the Tesla model. They want to drive down the street and look at the cars and drive them and know they can take it there for repairs, just a few miles away. The Tesla model fits better with younger people, and they'll eventually replace the older people, but this will take years, and also Tesla needs to work to change the belief of some younger people that their model for service and repairs isn't working. Also many potential buyers are only dimly aware of Tesla or only know about it from propaganda. What's real are the Chevy and Hyundai dealers down the street.
Of course there are many factors in Tesla's competition with the legacy automakers.
- As others have pointed out, Tesla doesn't have the legacy financial burden of GM and Ford.
- Tesla needs to broaden its executive strength and manufacturing base.
- Other manufacturers are developing vehicles in potentially lucrative segments that might be too much of a stretch for Tesla in the near future: Daimler/Freightliner's large 2-axle trucks (a big potential market); and the ID Buzz-based delivery van. And Tesla needs a replacement for the appearance-challenged Model X, either based on the pick-up or the existing vehicle. Others have said that refreshing the S and X is not the best use of capital at this time, but a mid-sized SUV is where the US market is, along with compact SUVs (like the Y). A good looking entry supported by a sufficient battery supply might do very well, at least in the US, and other manufacturers are targeting this market. (Possibly lower applicability to Europe and China is an obstacle.)
Today Tesla is way ahead, but there are more episodes to come in the EV tale before we know the ending.
Yeah. Let's not forget these companies are here to make money. They have a system.
And, doing honest and solid research and putting it out there are rarely their mode of operation.
That's also why they don't do as well as Warren. Don't get me wrong. They suck money into their pockets all right.
Lots of reasons.
Tesla is STILL cell limited. They want to sell 3GW of battery storage while ramping Model 3 to 7k/week. They are also trying to balance a situation of having a GAAP+ for every quarter and trying to get the SR out the door. Introducing the Model Y into all this can disrupt Tesla's goals especially when they are no where close to exhausting demand for all Tesla products.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Cramer on CNBC when asked "What do you think about Honda... buy or sell?"
I'm not recommending any automakers. Life's too short... it's just too hard. I mean [inaudble, he talks so fast] with GM. I have to say, I've been saying a lot of positive things about Tesla... I hate it when the CFO quits, let alone quit a second time, but I gotta tell ya I thought that they actually had a decent quarter. But it's not, uh, it's a balance sheet issue and I don't have the faith.
(not sure if the last sentence was about Honda or Tesla)
I'm not recommending any automakers. Life's too short... it's just too hard. I mean [inaudble, he talks so fast] with GM. I have to say, I've been saying a lot of positive things about Tesla... I hate it when the CFO quits, let alone quit a second time, but I gotta tell ya I thought that they actually had a decent quarter. But it's not, uh, it's a balance sheet issue and I don't have the faith.
(not sure if the last sentence was about Honda or Tesla)
MartinAustin
Active Member
In the old days when they were simply going to the markets for new capital, maybe they could have piled on and brought the Y forward.
But now they are trying to be actually profitable every quarter. So some things need to be spread out a bit.
Panasonic should be bringing up another 5GW of capacity (in other words, another cell line) at GF1 every 2-3 months. So it shouldn't be hard to find the capacity when the Model 3 ramp has leveled out for now into a slight uphill rather than fast climb (at least until China starts kicking out another 3k/week).
As long as Panasonic keeps adding cell lines, they should even have capacity to switch S/X to 2170 by the end of the year I think. Which might lead to switching the Panasonic 18650 lines in Japan to 2170, since Elon made comments about sourcing from Japan as well as the US and China for GF3 - if they can essentially "swap" capacity between Japan and GF1 so that they both have shorter trips to their corresponding factories, then that's a sensible thing to do.
I agree with your arguments but how do you reconcile Model Y showing around March? If it is how you say than there’s no need for March unveiling. Actually quite the opposite i- it is better that they do not show it.
As I understand it you don't want the supply voltage too much higher than the pack voltage, you want to be able to smoothly ramp the voltage as the pack charges, so I'm not sure if simply switching SC modules in parallel with the pack to charge it is really an ideal solution. Plus, as the SC packs are run down their voltage will drop, and so you'll probably need DC-to-DC conversion in heavy usage scenarios in order to provide the necessary voltage anyways.
However, rather than each pair of stalls and their corresponding cabinet being separate systems from the next pair of stalls, etc, it would probably make a lot of sense to have each stall go to a DC to DC converter which is then connected to a centralized and large battery bank (which in turn would connect to a large efficient AC to DC interface, and perhaps DC to DC from solar power). The bigger DC to DC conversion should be easier/cheaper/more efficient than lots of small AC to DC, and while it might have been a cost saver initially to adapt S/X chargers for the purpose, purpose built monolithic (or at least, modular but with larger modules) power systems are probably more cost effective now at today's scale.
Need someone to make a Tesla/Elon version of this classic :
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/038/337/gif.gif
We already know how this will end with Tesla. They win (and so does the world). The stated goal was to accelerate the transition of vehicles to electric. Legacy ICE automakers resisted and fought. Fair enough. So now the ICE machine is in the bottom of the 9th and barely even trying. So Tesla takes the market. Literally, the boats have sailed on this one. The European invasion has begun. Did I mention solar, power grid stabilization and storage?
Edit: PS - not trying to pick a fight.
I don't see why they couldn't source their metal for GF3 from China. It seems unlikely that there is zero capacity for high end steel / aluminum in China. After all a lot of premium products are built there. Though it might require a capacity ramp or something like that at a foundry. They may be importing their steel / aluminum this year, but I imagine within the next 1-2 years after GF3 start of production they'll have local suppliers for it.
I am wondering about Elon's statement about possibly buying cells from Japan for GF3. Is anyone producing 2170 cells in Japan currently? If not, might this possibly imply that Panasonic would stop production of 18650s on their line there and switch to 2170 production? (this would likely require S/X to also be switched to 2170 before that could happen, obviously). At the rate Panasonic is adding new cell lines there could be enough capacity by the end of the year to switch the S/X to sourcing 2170s from GF1, which allow Panasonic to change out the cell lines in Japan to make 2170s to ship to GF3. This would shorten the shipping distances required for both products and thus presumably lower costs (GF1 to Fremont for S/X and Japan to GF3 for China Model 3 SR, versus GF1 to GF3 for China Model 3 SR and Japan to Fremont for S/X).
Of course, he might be just throwing ambiguity out there to keep the suppliers in check.
What do you mean? Took 2 years to get the Model 3 out after revealing...and probably 4 years for Semi/Roadster.
Tesla loves to generate buzz. Announcing the car doesn't mean production will start for any car company. I mean how many concept EVs have we seen from all the legacy automakers that are still a no show? It's kind of how the industry works.
In fact, the reason why people even talk about "future competition" is because all these legacy car makers showed off their concepts. Tesla can't just sit on the sideline and show nothing.
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