Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

For those Europeans interested the attached link to a google file shows that Tesla is quickly adding the CCS charger to the SC in order to make the M3 owner happy and easy to charge and go.

Looks to me like Norway and Netherlands did get a priority which is no surprise as they will have high demand and supply versus other EU countries.

Tracker CCS on Superchargers

Daniel Bönnighausen on Twitter

Quick number: Since Christmas, they retrofitted 25% of European supercharger locations with CCS (usually half of the charge points).

I actually wrote an article for our local EV site on this 2 days ago and took a screenshot for that. At that point the counter was at 358 stalls at 77 locations. Right now it's at 467 stalls at 105 locations. That's 27,5% of the locations. Great progress!

 

[SOULPEDL]

And -20°F in Chicago...

Let's not exaggerate how warm it gets in Chicago.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yes, yes, yes!! This is just what JB first discussed years ago when he was elucidating to opportunities in what is generically called 'grid services' and has been demonstrated repeatedly by Tesla and others.

The public pitch about V3 is all about higher charging speeds and that is essential. The absolute key to reduced cost is stationary storage, with solar (or wind although Tesla does not do that-yet) an added feature, especially because in most areas peak usage happens when solar production is highest. If that is not what V3 is about from an economic perspective I will b1e astonished and chagrined.

Great post on the synergy of V3 and storage w Powerpacks and Megabucks. I'm a tad skeptical about Tesla adding much PV solar at SC locations in the next year or two (except for a few demonstration locations), given how slow progress has been in putting panels across the entire roof of GF1. Does anyone know what % of the roof surface now has panels? Since Tesla/Panasonic make the panels at GF2 and adding more panels reduces the amount they pay for utility electric for GF1, the only thing that comes to mind for delaying the project is they don't want to tie up the capital required. I'm not sure if it would or would not make sense for them to set up a deal to finance the cost externally. That should be with good terms, given the savings to repay over 10 or 20 years would be guaranteed. Having the world's biggest rooftop solar installation would bring more valuable PR for Tesla Energy.

 

[gora321]

anonymous on Twitter

 

[gora321]

$26.8B (2019)
$28.1B (2020)
$31.2B (2021)

Have we met before?
I could say..

 

[EnzoXYZ]

A million thanks for posting this! I had no idea... Can't overstate how much better this makes me feel about all I've sunk into TSLA.

Had you put all that money into GM or Ford then use the word “sunk.” “Invested” seems more appropriate.

 

[wipster]

Let's not exaggerate how warm it gets in Chicago.

Not to mention the wind chill in the windy city...

I feel like I'm basking in warmth here in the PNW with 35°...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Amazon beats on EPS and revenue, but guides down on Q1 '19 revenue.

 

[avoigt]

A rare quite positive article from CNBC


Verified account 12m12 minutes ago
Exciting to see all the new electric vehicles coming to market! We created Tesla to accelerate a sustainable future & it’s happening!


Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'


Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Our true competition is not the small trickle of non-Tesla electric cars being produced, but rather the enormous flood of gasoline cars pouring out of the world’s factories every day

Elon Musk on Twitter


"... small trickle..."

 

[jbcarioca]

... I'm a tad skeptical about Tesla adding much PV solar at SC locations in the next year or two (except for a few demonstration locations), given how slow progress has been in putting panels across the entire roof of GF1...

Just to be clear, the storage by itself generates considerable income through grid services. The use of renewables without storage is a trifle illogical, but storage without renewables still allow the batteries to absorb excessive power at lulls and give it back at peaks. It is that process that Hornsdale so profitable, although it was planned to serve as a stabilizing force for the intermittent production at the adjacent wind farm. Almost every was shocked to discover how lucrative the batteries could be. 'almost' because JB had discussed this very issue the first time I heard him, IIRC around 2010. At the time people thought he was smoking something that was then illegal in California.

 

[MP3Mike]

The Model 3 can supercharge at (close to) 120kW. With a battery voltage of 350V, somewhere inside the car there should be a current greater than 300A (namely 120kW/350V, i.e. close to 340A). The Model 3's cabling is in fact rated for 525A.

Does the Supercharger cable deliver power at 400V, also when a Model 3 is charging?

Because if not, then the Supercharger (cable) is delivering power at closer to 340A.

Most of the Tesla battery packs are around 400v when they are full. (Exceptions are the Model S&X 60/75 packs that are 350v at full charge.)

But to your point the highest kW charging rate is toward the bottom, which would increase the current. I'm not sure what the voltage of a pack is when it is down to a ~10% SoC.

 

[Zaxxon]

So the applicability for a law in California is that the sale is within California (both buyer and manufacturer), but being sold for use outside of CA. Not sure I really see a need, which suggests that the bill sponsor (or a friend of the sponsor) has a business that would benefit. But then again, I'm just cynical

I have a different read of this -

and first, in earlier post, where querier KarenRei is confused: the overall reason this can be a big deal is that at present, unlike most other US states, California grabs sales tax from every new car sold in-state, with no redress for those coming from another state.

This is how I read it, though admittedly I only took the quickest of looks. I considered picking up my Model 3 at Fremont, getting a tour, and then road-tripping back to Colorado. That's a scenario that's currently prohibitively expensive in CO and many other states, as CA does not currently waive sales tax when the car is purchased to be registered in another state. I would have had to pay the ~9%ish (IIRC) combined sales tax rate in Fremont, then the ~5%ish rate back home. In short, something like a $4k hit after trade-in vs picking up here in CO.

Anyway, a hopeful way to look at this is that it could be the nose of the tax break camel poking under the Sacramento tent: if this larger-vehicle-only tax break bill passes, then down the road it could be used as a rationale for extending it to regular passenger vehicles. Nice!

Concur. There's really no good reason for CA to do things this way. If Tesla buyers could pick up their cars at Fremont and not get hit with this multi-thousand dollar duplicate tax bill, I think some significant # would do it. Then Tesla would have lower expenses for those sales (no transport costs), the buyers would get a cool tour, and California would reap significant tourism/tax benefits from those folks lodging in CA, eating in CA, perhaps sightseeing rather than turning around and going straight home.

Currently, they receive virtually $0 from this scenario, as very few people are willing to take that tax hit.

 

[gora321]

SP and the value of the company are connected with elastic bond. More you stretch elastic higher escape velocity you get.
Dude this gap is widening every day

 

[wipster]

A rare quite positive article from CNBC


Verified account 12m12 minutes ago
Exciting to see all the new electric vehicles coming to market! We created Tesla to accelerate a sustainable future & it’s happening!


Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'


Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Our true competition is not the small trickle of non-Tesla electric cars being produced, but rather the enormous flood of gasoline cars pouring out of the world’s factories every day

Elon Musk on Twitter


"... small trickle..."

I think the "positive" is Elon's superb Twitter response to CNBC's article, not the article itself.

 

[Toolsmack]

Firstly, thanks for reading the $TSLAQ swamp, so that we didn't have to!



Accounts receivable did go down - but it's still at over $900m, which bodes well for Q1 cash flow. (Not sure the TSLAQ folks wanted to highlight that aspect though.)



That's simply false:

• Tesla's capex guidance for 2019 is more than 10% higher than the total 2018 capex (which included a brutal cycle of Model 3 related capex payments),
• Tesla is not obligated to disclose their discretionary capex spending plans: if they are making more cash during 2019 (which looks highly likely if we extrapolate Q3 and Q4 cash flow), then I'm sure they won't let it sit in the bank.
• The advantage of not guiding too high capex for 2019 is that they don't have to reduce guidance during the year, should they decide to spend less on capex in some area.

That's simply false too: both the Q3 and Q4 cash interest income shows average cash levels during the quarter that are expected, a few hundred million dollars draw-down during the first half of the quarter, and a re-increase near the end as the end-of-the-quarter push is generating cash.

Shoot. I messed up in my Capex summary of teslaQ complaints. That should read as 2018 Capex. Total 2018 Capex came in far below forecast 2018 Capex, indicating to teslaQ that Tesla didn’t have the cash to fund as much Capex as they wanted to.

 

[MP3Mike]

I would have had to pay the ~9%ish (IIRC) combined sales tax rate in Fremont, then the ~5%ish rate back home. In short, something like a $4k hit after trade-in vs picking up here in CO.

I thought that most states would honor the tax payment from the other state, but you couldn't get a refund for over-payment. So you would only pay an extra ~4%.

 

[Don TLR]

A rare quite positive article from CNBC



Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'





"... small trickle..."

Gabe is clueless saying Demand fell off a cliff on Jan 1 and there are pictures of Lots full of cars all over the internet,,, Is he referring to Pier 80???

 

[ggies07]

Yesir.

 

[Fact Checking]

Shoot. I messed up in my Capex summary of teslaQ complaints. That should read as 2018 Capex. Total 2018 Capex came in far below forecast 2018 Capex, indicating to teslaQ that Tesla didn’t have the cash to fund as much Capex as they wanted to.

Tesla had more than enough cash at the end of Q3 (over 3 billion dollars), and even more at the end of Q4 ($3.6b) - so the lower than guided capex total for 2018 was probably more due to clever low capex solutions they found during the year, the Sprung Tent final assembly line for example.

 

[ZsoZso]

A rare quite positive article from CNBC


Verified account 12m12 minutes ago
Exciting to see all the new electric vehicles coming to market! We created Tesla to accelerate a sustainable future & it’s happening!


Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'


Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Our true competition is not the small trickle of non-Tesla electric cars being produced, but rather the enormous flood of gasoline cars pouring out of the world’s factories every day

Elon Musk on Twitter


"... small trickle..."

I have saved the link for that article, and will be curious to see how its predictions hold up next year, such as:

Tesla finished 2018 with an astounding 83 percent share of the U.S. battery-electric vehicle market, CEO Elon Musk boasted Wednesday. That hasn’t happened since the years following the start-up of Ford’s first moving assembly line.Of course, as Ford found out, that sort of performance is all but impossible to maintain.

Tesla has a history of beating impossible odds as depicted by the media, see
Tesla Flashbacks, Take 5 | CleanTechnica

Of course, some of the statements in the new CNBC article are already proven wrong, e.g.
“It’s going to be a battle” out there, said Toyota North America’s CEO Lentz, especially in the next five years. Declining costs, longer range, the increased availability of fast chargers and other factors may eventually help win buyers over to EVs. But, for now, almost everyone seems to agree that plugging in will be, despite Elon Musk’s enthusiasm, a recipe for losing money.

Clearly, Tesla's second consecutive profitable quarter means Mr. Lentz has proven to be wrong already.